Hot Takes, Predictions for Packers Rookies After 2023 NFL Draft
The Green Bay Packers were incredibly busy during the 2023 NFL draft. They made multiple trades and ultimately made 13 selections, including three in the top 50.
The Packers kicked things off by selecting Iowa edge defender Lukas Van Ness with the 13th pick. They still haven't spent a first-round pick on an offensive player outside of quarterback Jordan Love in the last decade.
Once the first round was over, they went to work on finding help for Love. They spent their next three picks on pass-catchers, double-dipping at tight end to add Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. Michigan State wide receiver Jayden Reed was sandwiched between those two.
Day 3 was all about volume, as the Packers had nine picks in Rounds 4-7. Defensive line was a priority, as evidenced by the selections of Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks.
With the draft now over, it's time to start thinking about how these players will fit in. The Aaron Rodgers era is officially done, so the Packers are far more of a mystery than usual heading into the 2023 season.
Here are three hot takes and predictions for this draft class.
Lukas Van Ness Will Take a While to Develop
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It's probably best to temper expectations when it comes to the Packers' first pick. There's a lot to like about Lukas Van Ness, but waiting on his breakout might be an exercise in patience.
The Iowa prospect boasts a relative athletic score of 9.39, according to Kent Lee Platte of Pro Football Network, anchored by elite speed numbers and great agility. He ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash, a 4.32 shuttle and a 7.02 three-cone. Those numbers all highlight Van Ness' ability to explode off his first step and bend the edge.
The problem is that those things don't always show up on film. Matt Holder of the B/R Scouting Department noted a lack of athleticism in Van Ness' scouting report, which is based on his game tape rather than his predraft testing numbers.
Van Ness wasn't a starter at Iowa. He was productive with 13 sacks over the last two seasons, but he wasn't well-rounded enough to be in the starting lineup.
That doesn't mean Van Ness won't eventually become a good pass-rusher in the NFL. It's just that his career arc might look a lot like Rashan Gary's.
Gary had only two sacks as a rookie with the Packers while coming off the bench in all 16 of his appearances. He didn't become a full-time starter until his third season, when he had a career-high 9.5 sacks.
Van Ness might be Gary's long-term bookend, but the Packers will likely depend a lot on other players over the rookie.
Jayden Reed Will Be the Packers' WR2
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The Romeo Doubs hype was one of the most dominant stories early last season as far as the Packers' rookie class was concerned.
After turning in a great camp and making some plays in the preseason, expectations got out of control for the fourth-round pick. He put together a solid rookie season with 42 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns on 67 targets, but fellow rookie Christian Watson proved to be the better big-play threat. He had one fewer reception (41) but racked up 611 yards and seven touchdowns.
Going into Year 2, Watson is primed to be the Packers' top receiver. Doubs is going to have competition from second-round pick Jayden Reed as the No. 2 receiver in the offense.
The Packers used the No. 50 overall pick on Reed. He profiles as the kind of receiver who should be a safety blanket for a young quarterback like Love.
Put on Reed's highlights and you'll see a receiver who thrives in the slot with his ability to get open and make something happen after the catch. He's also able to high-point the ball and win contested catches, although that skill might not translate to the NFL as well given his frame (5'11", 187 pounds).
Either way, Reed will make life easier for Love. While Doubs typically succeeds on downfield targets that might be more difficult for the first-year starter, Reed can become a safe underneath target who makes plays on his own.
Tucker Kraft Will Play More Than Luke Musgrave in Year 1
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The Packers made a serious investment in Luke Musgrave. He was the fourth tight end taken and the third in a second-round run that included five tight ends.
However, Musgrave is a long-term play who might not pay huge dividends as a rookie.
In general, it's tough for rookie tight ends to make an immediate impact in the NFL. They have a foot in the world of blocking and another in being an asset in the passing game, which often comes with a steep learning curve.
For example, Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo made the NFL.com All-Rookie team with 32 receptions for 450 yards and three touchdowns. There were nine tight ends taken before him in the draft, but none of them had significantly better seasons.
Musgrave is a 6'6" target who is reminiscent of Darren Waller, but it's going to take time for him to develop. Much like Van Ness, he didn't play as much in college as you'd like to see from a typical second-rounder.
Injuries limited Musgrave to only two games in his final season at Oregon State, although he finished with 11 catches for 169 yards and a touchdown. He played 10 games in 2021 but had only 22 receptions for 304 yards and a touchdown.
Meanwhile, Tucker Kraft was an integral part of the South Dakota State offense. He had 65 receptions for 773 yards and six touchdowns in 15 games in 2021. He played nine games in his final season in college, catching 27 passes for 348 yards and three touchdowns.
Musgrave has the higher ceiling because of his athleticism and receiving potential. But Kraft is a more well-rounded tight end at this point, and his blocking should be good enough to earn him quite a bit of snaps in 2023.
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