Winners and Losers of Each NFL 2023 Draft-Day Trade from Round 1
As was widely expected, the first round of the 2023 NFL draft was full of surprises. There were some unexpected picks (who saw Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12?) and quite a bit of trade activity as well.
The action actually started back on March 10, when the Carolina Panthers acquired the No. 1 overall pick from the Chicago Bears. Carolina sought a new franchise quarterback, and it ultimately got its man in Alabama's Bryce Young.
Earlier this week, the Green Bay Packers moved up two spots in Round 1 as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade.
Here, though, we're going to focus on the six trades that went down Thursday night. We'll examine each of the draft-day deals and break down the biggest winners and losers based on factors like trade value, prospect potential, team needs and draft impact.
Trades are listed in the order in which they occurred. Before we get to those exchanges, though, here's a quick recap of how Round 1 unfolded.
Draft Results
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Texans Trade Up to No. 3 for Will Anderson Jr.
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Texans Get: No. 3 overall pick, No. 105 pick
Cardinals Get: No. 12 pick, No. 33 pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
The Houston Texans made the logical choice to grab Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick. There had been some buzz about the Texans passing on a QB to take a top defensive prospect. Instead they moved up from No. 12 to No. 3 to grab Alabama pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr.
According to ESPN's Field Yates, the 2024 first-round pick included in the deal is Houston's pick, not the Cleveland Browns' selection that the Texans also own.
Winner: DeMeco Ryans
The biggest winner in this deal is new Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans, who has a defensive background and came from the San Francisco 49ers.
With the 49ers, Ryans watched pass-rusher Nick Bosa develop into a legitimate difference-maker and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Anderson, who logged 27.5 sacks over the past two seasons, has the potential to be a similar player.
"As a pass-rusher, Anderson is impressive with his inside countermoves," Matt Holder of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "His speed off the ball puts pressure on tackles vertically, and once they open their hips, he has the quickness and change of direction to dart inside and leave tackles grasping at air."
Ryans has his defensive centerpiece, and he got him without sacrificing arguably the most polished quarterback prospect in the class.
Loser: Will Levis
Heading into Thursday night, there was a lot of buzz about Kentucky quarterback Will Levis going to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 4.
"Multiple sources around the league say the Colts would love to select him, but that gets complicated if Ohio State's C.J. Stroud is on the board," ESPN's Matt Miller wrote.
It turns out that this was a smokescreen. Indy preferred Florida's Anthony Richardson and took him at No. 4 instead. Perhaps the Colts would have been happy to take Levis if Richardson were off the board, but that didn't happen because Arizona dealt the No. 3 pick to a team seeking a defensive player.
Levis fell out of the first round entirely.
This trade wasn't the only reason why Levis fell. According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, the toe injury that caused Levis to miss two games in 2022 was "problematic" for at least one team.
However, a trade at No. 3 that didn't involve a quarterback erased any chance of Levis going at No. 4.
Cardinals Trade Back Up to No. 6 for Paris Johnson Jr.
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Cardinals Get: No. 6 pick
Lions Get: No. 12 pick, No. 34 pick
The Cardinals traded down from No. 3 and didn't wait long to get back to the top of the draft order. They swung a deal with the Detroit Lions for the sixth overall selection. With that pick, the Cardinals grabbed Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr.
Winner: Kyler Murray
According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, Murray made it "known" to the Cardinals that he preferred Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. Arizona gave up the chance to secure Johnson at No. 3, but general manager Monti Ossenfort made sure to land him anyway.
This is a huge win for Murray, who was sacked 131 times in his first four seasons. Johnson was the top-ranked tackle on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's final draft board, and he should quickly become an anchor along Arizona's offensive line.
"Overall, Johnson is an extremely athletic, coordinated mover with the movement skills and body control to play on an island in pass protection while being an asset in the zone run game, working combo blocks and tracking targets on the move," Brandon Thorn of the B/R Scouting Department wrote.
Loser: D.J. Humphries
The drafting of Johnson likely starts the clock on D.J. Humphries' remaining time in Arizona. The 2015 first-round pick is signed through the 2025 season, but Arizona has an out after this year.
If the Cardinals release Humphries next offseason, they can save more than $9 million off the 2024 cap.
Humphries has had an up-and-down career with the Cardinals. At times, he has looked like a franchise-caliber left tackle, but consistency has been an issue. He allowed only three sacks in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus, but he was responsible for seven sacks allowed and 12 penalties in 2021.
Last season, Humphries appeared in only eight games before landing on injured reserve with a back issue. Arizona may give Johnson a chance on the right side to start the 2023 season, but he should be the Cardinals' left tackle of the future. The 29-year-old Humphries will likely be looking for work in 2024.
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Eagles Move Up to No. 9 for Jalen Carter
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Eagles Get: No. 9 pick
Bears Get: No. 10 pick, 2024 fourth-round pick
Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter ended up being a top-10 pick after all. There was some questions about that after he pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing in connection with a crash that killed Georgia teammate Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy and disappointed at his pro day.
Carter made it to No. 9, but the Philadelphia Eagles moved up one spot to secure him.
Winner: Jalen Carter
Not every draft prospect lands in the perfect situation. Carter did. He's joining a legitimate Super Bowl contender and a top-tier defense with former teammates like fellow defensive tackle Jordan Davis, linebacker Nakobe Dean and 30th overall pick Nolan Smith.
The Eagles will know how to get the most out of Carter, which, according to ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay, is critical.
"He’s got to be motivated from teammates, I think, in order to get him to play at the level he needs to play at, and you would expect him to play at as a top-10 pick," McShay said on Barstool Sports' Pardon My Take (h/t Steve Samra of On3).
In Philadelphia, Carter will have a tremendous opportunity to experience both team and individual success early in his career.
Loser: Alan Williams
Bears defensive coordinator Alan Williams had the second-ranked player on the B/R board sitting in his lap, but Chicago pivoted. Instead of snapping up Carter, the Bears moved down one spot, picked up a Day 3 selection and grabbed Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell Wright.
This was probably the right move for the Bears. They're looking to develop quarterback Justin Fields into a high-end signal-caller, and Fields was sacked a league-high 55 times last season (tied with Russell Wilson).
Wright was labeled the best pass-blocker by the B/R Scouting Department, and he may have been the pick even if Chicago stayed at No. 9. However, Williams has to be disappointed that he won't be adding Carter to his defense.
The coordinator has his work cut out for him after Chicago ranked 29th in yards allowed and 32nd in points allowed last season. Carter, who logged 32 tackles, seven tackles for loss and three sacks in 2022, could have made a huge impact for the Bears.
Steelers Trade to No. 14 for Broderick Jones
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Steelers Get: No. 14 pick
Patriots Get: No. 17 pick, No. 120 pick
The Pittsburgh Steelers moved up three spots to grab Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones. This was a logical move with Paris Johnson Jr., Darnell Wright and Peter Skoronski off the board. The Steelers needed a tackle, and the New York Jets were a threat to take one at No. 15.
Winner: Kenny Pickett
The big winner here is second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Steelers signal-caller did a good job of operating behind a shaky offensive line last season (27 sacks in 13 games), but he needed an upgrade at left tackle.
Dan Moore Jr. was responsible for 10 penalties and seven sacks allowed in 2022, according to Pro Football Focus.
Jones was the second-ranked pure tackle on the B/R board, and he has the potential to be a quality starter sooner rather than later but perhaps not immediately.
"He needs considerable refinement in his use of hands, posture/hat placement and overall ability to stay attached to blocks, making him a potential impact player as a rookie with the physical traits to develop into a plus starter within his first contract," Thorn wrote.
Pickett should wake up smiling Friday morning.
Loser: Aaron Rodgers
While Pickett must be thrilled with the pick, the Jets' new quarterback should be less so. Tackle was a big need for New York, as 2020 11th overall selection Mekhi Becton remains a massive unknown.
Becton has missed significant time with knee injuries and has played just 15 games in three seasons and one game over the last two. He played just 691 snaps in his rookie campaign and was responsible for seven penalties and seven sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Jets also have Duane Brown at tackle, though the 37-year-old is entering the final year of his contract. If Becton cannot establish himself this year, Rodgers may have a major hole on his blind side in 2024—assuming he does indeed stick around for more than a season.
"This isn't a one-and-done in my mind. This is a commitment," Rodgers said, per Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic.
Given Brown's age and Becton's injury history, it could be a problem for Rodgers this season too.
Giants Trade Up to No. 24 for Deonte Banks
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Giants Get: No. 24 pick
Jaguars Get: No. 25 pick, No. 160 pick, No. 240 pick
The New York Giants traded up one spot in a swap with the Jacksonville Jaguars. They used the pick on Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks. He was the fifth-ranked cornerback on the B/R board and the fourth to go in Round 1.
Winner: Don Martindale
Would the Giants have liked to have gotten another pass-catcher for quarterback Daniel Jones in Round 1? Perhaps, but a run on receivers just before Jacksonville's selection left New York short on logical targets.
However, defensive coordinator Don Martindale should be very happy with how things unfolded. He had a solid pass-defending unit last season—one that ranked 15th in passing yards allowed—but it didn't regularly generate takeaways.
The Giants recorded a league-low six interceptions on the season. Though he only had two interceptions in college, Banks has the tools to become an early playmaker and turnover-producer.
"When covering receivers downfield, he does a great job of matching speed and quickly getting in phase to run receivers off their line," Cory Giddings of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "He gets his head around to locate the ball and stays calm while attacking the ball in the air."
Martindale's secondary is better than it was only a day ago.
Loser: Joey Porter Jr.
If the Jaguars were seriously considering Banks at No. 24, they probably would have simply selected him. The fact that New York jumped up one spot to get the talented cornerback suggests another team was interested in moving up as well.
Obviously, that team didn't get Banks, and it could be considered a loser here. However, Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr. might be even more disappointed than that mystery team.
Porter was the second-ranked cornerback on the B/R board and seemed like a near-lock to go in the first round. However, four cornerbacks were drafted on opening night, and he wasn't one of them.
Financially, that's a pretty big deal, since first-round contracts are fully guaranteed. Last year's 24th pick, Tyler Smith, got a four-year, $13.4 million contract. The first pick in Round 2, Logan Hall, got a four-year, $9.3 million deal with only $6.9 million guaranteed.
Bills Trade Up to No. 25 for Dalton Kincaid
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Bills Get: No. 25 pick
Jaguars Get: No. 27 pick, No. 130 pick
Right after the Giants moved up one spot, the Buffalo Bills moved up into Jacksonville's new slot to jump the Dallas Cowboys. Buffalo took the first tight end off the board, Utah's Dalton Kincaid.
Winner: Josh Allen
The Jaguars deserve an honorable mention here. They moved down twice, added a trio of picks and still landed a quality prospect in offensive tackle Anton Harrison.
However, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the big winner of this deal. The Bills have a solid tight end in Dawson Knox, but Kincaid has the physical upside to be much more than just solid at the next level.
"Kincaid should have no issue seeing the field early and often. He can align anywhere you can imagine putting a tight end. He is a plus athlete, he has elite catching skills, and he's willing to get after it as a blocker," Derrik Klassen of the B/R Scouting Department wrote.
Allen now has a potent receiving corps headlined by Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Knox and Kincaid. Buffalo's offense could be particularly difficult to defend out of two-tight end sets.
The Cowboys, who lost Dalton Schultz in free agency, may have been eyeing Kincaid, but instead of taking a tight end at No. 26, they grabbed Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith.
Loser: Dawson Knox
While the addition of Kincaid should do wonders for the Buffalo offense, it puts a damper on Knox's long-term outlook with the Bills.
Knox, who had 48 catches for 517 yards and six touchdowns last season, is a quality starter but isn't in that upper echelon of receiving tight ends. Kincaid could be sooner rather than later. If it happens within the next two seasons, Knox could be on his way out.
The Bills signed Knox to a four-year, $53.6 million extension last year. However, they could release him after the 2024 season and save $7.6 million off the 2025 cap. Knox would be due $7.8 million in dead money but would also leave $20.8 million in base salary on the table for 2025 and 2026.
He should have a secure spot on the roster for two more seasons, but he could be leaving one of the league's most potent offenses and looking for work at 28 years old.
*Contract information via Spotrac.
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