2023 NFL Draft: 5 Best Bets After Latest Rumors, Buzz
The 2023 NFL draft represents a unique opportunity for bettors looking to get some professional football action. While there is not the standard point spread and total fare you'll find in-season, shops like DraftKings Sportsbook are offering a slew of prop bets for the event.
With so many options, it can be tough to unearth value and make winning picks. The lines are heavily influenced by the latest buzz, but some of these rumors are simply smokescreens by teams hoping to throw rival franchises off their true plans.
If you are looking for some help untangling it all and coming up with a handful of wagers that have a great chance to cash, you've come to the right place. Read on for five of the best bets you can make on the 2023 draft.
Anthony Richardson Draft Position: Under 4.5 (+255)
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No prospect has seen more of a meteoric rise this year than Anthony Richardson. The Florida quarterback was considered a fringe first-rounder after the 2022 campaign wrapped up, but he now has real potential to become a top-five pick thanks to his world-class performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Sportsbooks have pinned the over/under of Richardson's draft location at 4.5. Given the sheer number of clubs in the market for his position, there is strong value on taking the under at slightly longer than 2.5-to-1 odds.
While the rumor mill and betting market have both indicated that Bryce Young is the heavy favorite to become the first signal-caller off the board Thursday, things get a bit spotty at No. 2. The Houston Texans could go several directions, but they clearly need a quarterback more than anything else. Whether Houston's choice will be Kentucky's Will Levis—a surprise riser as the draft has drawn closer—or Ohio State's C.J. Stroud remains to be seen, but the Richardson watch should officially begin at third overall.
This bet could get an assist from the Arizona Cardinals, as there is a good chance that they'll trade out of the No. 3 spot. Assuming the Cards make the smart move for a rebuilding franchise and drop down in exchange for extra capital, a quarterback-needy team will likely take their place and find itself choosing from the two remaining passers worthy of an early first-round selection.
The Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest mock projects the Indianapolis Colts will move up a spot to nab Richardson, but a team picking later in Round 1 could leap ahead of Indianapolis to get him. Bettors won't even need to sweat this one out if that situation occurs and the Gators product isn't the choice at No. 3, as Indianapolis should be happy to scoop up Richardson after standing pat at No. 4.
Those are just a few of the myriad of scenarios in which Richardson would end up as a top-four pick, making this a great bet to kick off the 2023 draft with.
Defensive Backs Drafted in 1st Round: Under 5.5 (+155)
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Defensive backs, most notably the safeties, are far from the strength of the 2023 draft class. With a limited pool of talent to choose from, teams could avoid addressing their secondaries on the first night. It's a situation that bettors can capitalize on by taking the under side of the number of DBs drafted in the first round, which is set at 5.5.
The league recently dropped a hint that there may not be many defensive backs getting picked on Day 1. Of the 17 invites to attend the draft in person, only four—Brian Branch, Christian Gonzalez, Joey Porter Jr. and Devon Witherspoon—play the safety or cornerback position.
While the latter three are basically first-round locks, Branch is a fringe first-rounder who could fall to Day 2. Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks is the only other defensive back the B/R Scouting Department has coming off the board within the first 31 selections of its most recent mock.
While others may have six or even more DBs being taken on Day 1—ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. had six corners off the board by pick No. 25—it'll be difficult for teams to pass up the type of high-value prospects at other positions who should still be lingering late Thursday if there's an early run on corners.
It will be tough to justify drafting a defensive back like Michigan's DJ Turner II—a prospect ranked 89th on the latest B/R Scouting Department big board, albeit one Kiper has being picked No. 25 overall—while true top-25 talents like LSU edge-rusher BJ Ojulari are still available.
Factor in the realistic chance for no safeties to be taken on Day 1, and the under on this prop—which pays $1.55 for each $1 risked—is looking like a top-notch value.
1st Defensive Player Selected: Will Anderson Jr. (+125)
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You may be shocked to learn that Will Anderson Jr. is no longer the top choice to become the first defensive player taken in the 2023 draft. The Alabama star—who has +125 odds to earn that distinction—has been edged out by Tyree Wilson, the Texas Tech edge-rusher who is now the odds-on favorite at -150.
According to NBC Sports' Peter King (h/t Dov Kleiman), at least one coach with a top-10 pick believes Wilson will be a "better pro" than Anderson. Longtime Houston Texans insider John McClain even said he "can see" the Texans drafting Wilson as high as No. 2 overall.
While Wilson is undoubtedly a strong prospect, his potential to become a generational talent is lower than Anderson's. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department gave a rare 9.6 grade to the Crimson Tide product and rated him as the No. 1 overall prospect this year, well above the solid but unspectacular 8.1 mark that Wilson received as the No. 18 overall player on the top 225 list.
Assuming the Texans don't throw a wrench in the draft at No. 2 overall by declining to fill the massive hole they have under center, there's a great chance that Anderson will come off the board as early as the third overall selection. Although there's been a significant amount of buzz around the Cardinals trading down from that spot, most experts have them selecting Anderson if they do stay put.
There's been talk of teams like the Seattle Seahawks or Detroit Lions moving up a few spots to acquire Anderson as well. Former NFL quarterback and current Fox Sports analyst Brock Huard said on his Brock and Salk on Seattle Sports show (h/t Harrison Reno of SI.com) that the Seahawks would be wise to package Nos. 5 and 37—or even Nos. 5 and 20—to secure Anderson at No. 3.
The B/R Scouting Department had Anderson landing with the Cardinals at No. 4 after the club traded down a spot with the Colts. That puts him one spot ahead Wilson, who ends up with the Seattle Seahawks at No. 5 in this scenario.
Regardless of how it plays out, Anderson is too talented to pass up for any team wanting to make a defensive pick early in the 2023 draft. The Wilson rumors look to be nothing more than a smokescreen, one that bettors should dodge to make a profit.
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Keion White Drafted in 1st Round: Yes (+110)
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This may be a loaded class of pass-rushers—arguably the deepest of any position—but Keion White is one of the better options available. At 6'5", 285 pounds, the Yellow Jackets product has the ideal size to go with an impressive blend of strength and athleticism.
White was a tight end recruit out of high school and didn't make waves until he transferred from Old Dominion in December 2020. While his inexperience and an injury that limited him to just four games in 2021 didn't help his stock, teams have undoubtedly taken notice of the 24-year-old by now.
White is coming off a solid campaign, one in which he notched 54 tackles, including 14 for loss, and 7.5 sacks. He'll need to improve his technique, but he has all of the unteachable traits. He'll be a perfect late-first-round addition to a club that can afford to bring him along slowly.
Although White was left off the B/R Scouting Department's latest first-round mock, it's worth noting that he received an invite from the league to attend the draft. That is a good indication that at least a few teams consider him worthy of a first-round selection. Some analysts even have him coming off the board as early as No. 23 to the Minnesota Vikings, which is where Fox Sports writers projected him in their collective mock.
As the only prospect to receive a first-round betting line at DraftKings out of the 17 who made the in-person cut—and longer than 1-1 odds to boot—White is a fantastic value play for those wishing to bet on fringe Day 1 picks.
Mr. Irrelevant Position: Defensive Player or Punter (-105)
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Last month, the NFL awarded the Houston Texans a compensatory pick at the tail end of the draft because of the low number of such selections being dished out this year. Houston will now get to make the Mr. Irrelevant pick.
The prop here is based on which position the prospect taken plays. While the odds that the final selection is an offensive player or a kicker slightly edge out a defensive player or a punter earning that distinction, the latter could be the best pick for those wanting to end their draft betting spree with a "W."
There's some history to note here. The Texans have gone with a defender all three times they held the last pick in an draft. They took defensive tackle Ahmad Miller in 2002, defensive end Cheta Ozougwu in 2011 and safety Lonnie Ballentine in 2014.
Don't forget that Houston, which hasn't won more than four games in a season since 2019, has some immense needs on this side of the ball too. The squad ranked 30th in total defense and 27th in scoring defense last year, so it would hardly be a surprise if the Texans utilized the majority of their 12 picks on defenders.
The club is expected to address its glaring offensive issues early, with most experts projecting a quarterback to Houston at No. 2 overall. Many expect the Texans to acquire a receiver at No. 12 overall to fill the void left by Brandin Cooks' trade to Dallas. The B/R Scouting Department has Ohio State teammates C.J. Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba going to the Texans in its latest mock.
Mr. Irrelevant backers will want to lean toward the Texans snatching a defender with the final pick Saturday.
Odds referenced are current as of 7 AM ET on Tuesday, April 25.
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