Bold Predictions for 2023 NFL Draft from Bleacher Report Staff
Over the past few months, we've laid eyes on countless mock simulations with so many different permutations about how the 2023 NFL draft could unfold on Thursday. Now, let's get bold with our predictions.
As we all know, the draft never pans out exactly how we thought in our minds—no matter how hard we study team roster needs and previous years to identify front-office trends.
So, we're not trying to nail every pick in the first round. Instead, our NFL experts, Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Maurice Moton and Brent Sobleski will give you the potential shockers with some of their unique draft takes.
Which team will make the most surprising pick on Thursday? Is there a possible trade on Day 1 that will make our jaws drop? Who's the biggest steal in this year's class? Our crew has the answers.
Most Surprising Pick
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Davenport: Houston Texans don't draft a quarterback second overall
There has been no shortage of speculation that the Texans could pass on taking a quarterback second overall, with ESPN's Adam Schefter reporting that Houston could instead elect to go with the top-rated defensive player on its board.
Wait, what?
It would be one thing (assuming Houston isn't sold on this year's top prospects under center) for the team to trade back and stockpile picks. Alabama edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. (the presumptive top defender) is an excellent player.
But an edge-rusher isn't going to change the trajectory of that floundering franchise—not with Davis Mills under center. And punting another season in the hopes that Houston can land Caleb Williams (let's be honest—he's who this is about) of USC next year is the kind of "plan" that can easily backfire.
Gagnon: Seattle Seahawks take a quarterback fifth overall
Geno Smith had a great year! And the Seahawks signed him to a new three-year deal! Meh. The team also knows that there's a good chance Smith's 2022 campaign was a fluke, and it's beginning to look like one of the big four quarterbacks in this draft class will be on the board when Seattle is on the clock.
The Seahawks also know they can move on from Smith pretty easily in a year. So, he's either a solid bridge, or he excels again for a year or two and you instead flip whoever is chosen in this scenario to a quarterback-needy team in 2024 or 2025. It's not outlandish, especially if Will Anderson Jr. is indeed off the board, and Seattle is uncomfortable with Jalen Carter.
Knox: Texans pass on QB at No. 2
This probably won't be a total shock, given the fact that a lot of recent buzz suggested that Houston won't go with the second-best quarterback on its board at No. 2. However, I do think a lot of fans will be surprised (and perhaps disappointed) if the quarterback-needy Texans don't take a signal-caller as soon as possible.
DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik both come from a San Francisco 49ers team that just had a seventh-round rookie lead it to the NFC title game. I think they'll be confident in their ability to take a prospect like Will Levis or Hendon Hooker at No. 12 (or by trading up from No. 12) and develop him into a high-level starter.
I can see the Texans taking a defensive prospect like Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson at No. 2 and making a play for a quarterback later. Alternatively, they may trade down a few spots, take a quarterback and use the extra draft capital to move up from No. 12 for one of those blue-chip defenders.
Moton: Tennessee Titans select QB Hendon Hooker with 11th pick
The MMQB's Albert Breer identified the Tennessee Titans as a sneaky quarterback-needy team that's done its homework on the top signal-callers, particularly Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis. At No. 11, the Titans could miss out on all three of them.
Barring a move up, the Titans can pivot to plan B, which may shock some people. Tennessee takes Hendon Hooker, an in-state prospect who performed at the level of Heisman Trophy candidate before tearing his ACL in November. As a two-year starter for the Volunteers, he threw for 58 touchdowns and five interceptions.
According to NFL Network's James Palmer (h/t Bleacher Report's Francisco Rosa), "plenty of teams" see Hooker as the third-best quarterback in this year's class. The Titans may be one of those clubs. They can allow Hooker to sit and recover from his knee injury while Ryan Tannehill plays out the final year of his contract.
In this spot, Hooker could come off the board before Levis or Anthony Richardson.
Sobleski: Philadelphia Eagles select Texas RB Bijan Robinson with 10th overall pick
Defensive line is the default setting for Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman. The organization invests heavily in its front, and the current crop still features older options in Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox. This particular position group is a safe bet regarding the 10th overall selection.
However, the Eagles front office also values running backs, unlike many other situations.
In this year's class, Texas' Bijan Robinson is a top-five talent regardless of position. In a draft that's not stacked with legitimate first-round talent and Philadelphia's search for a "unique player," Robinson's every-down skill set as a runner and receiver will add tremendously to the Eagles offense and take pressure off of quarterback Jalen Hurts. Also, the Eagles can address another position with their second opening-round selection.
Biggest Draft-Day Trade
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Davenport: Tennessee Titans mortgage their future for a quarterback
The Tennessee Titans have a new general manager in Ran Carthon and a problem at quarterback. Ryan Tannehill is 34 and coming off an injury-marred disappointment of a season. If his rookie season was any indication, Malik Willis is not and will never be "the guy."
So, on April 27, Carthon is going to put his stamp on the franchise in a major way.
How far up the board the Titans will have to go depends on a few factors. Moving up to No. 3 could get the Titans C.J. Stroud, but it wouldn't come cheaply. If the Titans are OK with Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, they could slide up to No. 5 or No. 6 and get ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders.
If it's Richardson or Levis, Tannehill would likely get one more year as Tennessee's starter. But that clock is ticking loudly.
And by the end of April, the Titans' 2024 starter at quarterback will be on the roster.
Gagnon: Titans move into the top three for a quarterback
I've been getting the "we swear we're satisfied, but we're not actually satisfied" feeling about the Titans for a while. Where there's smoke there's fire, and I think they know Ryan Tannehill peaked a few years ago, and they'd love to find an excuse to move on from him while creating up to $27 million in salary-cap room.
If indeed the Houston Texans aren't sure they want to draft a quarterback second overall, that pick and the Arizona Cardinals third overall selection could be up for grabs, and Tennessee could pounce.
Knox: Las Vegas Raiders move up for a QB
This may not represent the biggest jump we see in Round 1, but Las Vegas moving up to No. 3 to grab a quarterback would have the biggest impact on the rest of the first round. If Houston does bypass a quarterback at No. 2, the Raiders could move up and take QB2, leaving the Colts to take QB3 at No. 4 and teams possibly scrambling to acquire Seattle's fifth pick.
Arizona hasn't hidden the fact that the No. 3 pick is for sale, and according to ESPN's Dianna Russini, the Raiders are willing to move up if there's a quarterback they "love" at No. 3. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't a long-term answer in Las Vegas, and if C.J. Stroud is available, his combination of accuracy and fast-paced processing would be a tremendous fit for Josh McDaniels and the Las Vegas offense.
Moton: Minnesota Vikings trade up for QB Anthony Richardson
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah linked the Minnesota Vikings to quarterback Hendon Hooker in his late-March mock draft.
"The Vikings have been doing their homework on this quarterback class," Jeremiah wrote.
While Hooker makes sense on the back end of the first round with all the buzz around him, the Vikings can target a prospect who's younger with more upside. With swirling rumors around the Indianapolis Colts' interest in Will Levis (h/t Fox Sports' Peter Schrager), Anthony Richardson can fall outside of the top 10.
At No. 11, the Titans can surprise us and take Hooker (see above) or pick an offensive lineman (Peter Skoronski) to replace left tackle, Taylor Lewan. If that happens, the Vikings should move up for Richardson, who could sit for at least a year behind Kirk Cousins whose contract voids at the end of the 2023 season.
The Vikings can work on Richardson's mechanics through 2023 in hopes that his technical skill matches up with his physical gifts, which he put on full display at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Sobleski: Titans trade ahead of Indianapolis Colts for QB
The Cardinals are open for business with the third overall pick, and everyone knows it. While the Texans remain a wild card with the second overall selection, they'll likely settle on a quarterback or Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. The Cardinals, however, need help everywhere. Extra draft assets are more beneficial at this point in time than taking a single, albeit elite, prospect.
The Titans, meanwhile, have entered a rebuild—whether they'll admit it or not. Ryan Tannehill turns 35 before the start of the regular season. He's in the last year of his current deal and coming off a season-ending ankle injury. Tennessee has an opportunity to jump ahead of the rival Colts to land a top quarterback prospect—Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Kentucky's Will Levis or Florida's Anthony Richardson. Conversely, the Colts appear completely content on standing pat and taking a signal-caller at four depending on which prospect is available.
Biggest Steal of the Draft
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Davenport: Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina
In terms of physical traits, there's a lot to like about Rush—he's a lanky (6'2") corner who peeled off a 4.36-second 40 and 35" vertical at the NFL Scouting Combine. He was also the fastest player at this year's Senior Bowl.
However, Rush is still probably going to fall into the third day of the draft. He's an older prospect. He has limited experience playing corner after converting from wide receiver. And he just so happens to play one of the deepest positions in this year's draft.
Still, we saw just this past year with Tariq Woolen the sort of impact that a big, fast cornerback can have as a rookie if he lands in the right spot and gets coached up a little. Rush has the skill set to be just that kind of surprise star.
Gagnon: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Will Anderson Jr. and the quarterbacks are hogging all of the top-five headlines, and it looks like Carter will slip into the bottom portion of the top 10, if not further. That might depend on how teams feel about the fact the unanimous All-American pleaded no contest last month to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing in connection with a fatal accident in January.
I wouldn't blame teams for having reservations as a result, but there's also no denying the fact that Carter is a marvel in terms of quickness and size and has the ability to dominate early in his career. I wouldn't be shocked if he slipped to the Atlanta Falcons or Chicago Bears. Or even—imagine—the Eagles at 10.
Knox: Jakorian Bennett, CB, Maryland
Cornerback is one of the deeper positions in this draft class, and I think that will push some very talented prospects into the middle-to-late rounds. Maryland's Jakorian Bennett is one I'd pound the table for late on Day 2 or early Day 3. He's the 17th-ranked corner on the B/R big board and may need some time to develop fully, but he has good size for the position (5'11", 188 lbs), elite athleticism (3rd-ranked estimated athletic score among corners at the combine) and top-end speed (4.3-second 40).
On tape, Bennett has shown the versatility to play zone or man, and while he's not a true ball hawk, he did log five interceptions and 22 passes defended over the last two seasons. Like Martin Emerson Jr. (a 2022 third-rounder) and Paulson Adebo (a 2021 third-rounder), I can see Bennett carving out a prominent role early.
Moton: A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest
This year, we may not see more than three or four wide receivers come off the board in the first round, but teams can find a few steals on Day 2 who could become Pro Bowlers.
Keep an eye on A.T. Perry's landing spot. He'll likely hear his name called between the third and fourth rounds, but the Wake Forest standout could be a starting wideout with a team that needs an X-receiver on the perimeter.
Perry isn't coming from a powerhouse collegiate program, and as a result, he's flown under the radar with 152 catches for 2,389 yards and 26 touchdowns over the previous two years.
At the combine, Perry measured in at 6'3 1/2", 198 pounds and ran a 4.47-second 40-yard time. He doesn't have elite speed, but defensive backs better respect his ability to go vertical and make big plays. Between his physical attributes and recent production, Perry is an immediate starter who will exceed middle-round expectations in his rookie year.
Sobleski: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
Raw athleticism and how it pertains to an individual's usage are important when evaluating prospects. Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore primarily served as an edge in the Wildcats' defensive scheme, though his collegiate coaching staff moved him around a bit. A full-time transition to or a heavier emphasis on playing 3-technique can take a middling prospect into elite status.
Adebawore (6'2", 282 lbs) isn't built like a traditional interior defender. However, he moved inside during the Senior Bowl and basically became unblockable. Adebawore is an explosive athlete with long arms (33⅞" inches) and strong hands. He would have set the NFL Scouting Combine records with a 4.49-second 40-yard dash, 37.5-inch vertical and 10'5" broad jump had he been designated as a defensive tackle.
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Hottest Draft Take
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Davenport: C.J. Stroud is still the top QB prospect in this class
That this is a "take" at all makes my head hurt. But with each passing day, there seems to be another story regarding Stroud potentially sliding in the draft. Stroud didn't show up for the Manning Passing Academy. Stroud didn't score well on the S2 cognitive test. None of Stroud's teammates showed up at his birthday party. Ohio State quarterbacks don't fare well in the NFL.
Just stop it. USC quarterbacks haven't exactly lit it up—are we dropping Caleb Williams next year because of it?
Stroud is Bleacher Report's top-ranked quarterback prospect for a reason—he has the best arm talent in the class. He can make all the throws with touch and anticipation. And while he may not have Anthony Richardson's wheels, he's hardly a statue in the pocket.
If he does slide in the draft, some team is going to get the sort of value that can change a franchise's prospects in a big way.
Gagnon: Texas RB Bijan Robinson is not a worthy first-round selection
Robinson is awesome, but I'll say it again: He's a running back. They peak too early in their careers, they rarely make Super Bowl-sized differences, they're too fragile, and they're simply too easy to find outside of the first round. Only four of the league's 13 leading rushers last season experienced playoff victories, and a team with an All-Pro running back hasn't won the Super Bowl this century.
Robinson is a great player, but the dynamics surrounding the NFL in this era simply make it impossible for him to be worthy of a first-round pick.
Knox: Dorian Thompson-Robinson is being woefully overlooked
Most of the pre-draft focus has been on the five quarterbacks who could potentially go in Round 1. When developmental prospects are discussed, I frequently see players like Tanner McKee and Jake Haener mentioned ahead of Thompson-Robinson. However, I get the sense that teams are far higher on Thompson-Robinson than most in the media. He has met with multiple teams, and when he tried to showcase his potential at other positions at UCLA's pro day, scouts told him not to bother, that they view him as a quarterback.
The tools are there. He's a four-year starter and a viable dual-threat who completed 69.6 percent of his passes in 2022 and had the fastest-recorded throw in Indianapolis. While his slight build (6'2", 203 lbs) could prevent him from being a future NFL starter, I think he can carve out a long career as a quality backup and spot-starter with the potential to become more—especially if he can add weight without altering his delivery. Fans may not be too interested in future backup quarterbacks, but NFL teams are.
Moton: Tuli Tuipulotu should be a first-round pick
Pass-rushers who get to the quarterback with consistency usually rise to the top of every team's priority list of acquisitions. In a quarterback-driven league, you can never have too many productive edge-rushers.
At USC, Tuipulotu lined up in various spots across the defensive line and attacked offensive lines from a stand-up position on the edge. In 2022, he had a breakout year, registering 46 tackles, 22 for loss and an FBS-leading 13.5 sacks.
At the combine, Tuipulotu measured in at 6'3", 266 pounds, which may indicate a primary home for him on the edge in the NFL. Nevertheless, his versatility and pass-rushing skills should draw interest from teams with even- and odd-man fronts alike. Yet he's not mentioned as a potential first-rounder but more like a late second-round pick or early third-rounder.
Sobleski: Tennessee's Hendon Hooker is not a first-round talent
Quarterbacks are almost always pushed up draft boards, with last year's class being the outlier. This year, four quarterbacks—Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis—are considered rock-solid first-round picks. However, Hooker is another name under consideration because of his leadership qualities and natural skill set.
Three factors are working against Hooker as a Day 1 target, though.
First, he's already 25 years old. In fact, he'll be 26 before the 2023 season is officially done. Age isn't as much of a concern with quarterbacks, but it did take time for him to become a starter and finally break out on the collegiate level. Second, the Tennessee offense has roots in Art Briles' old Baylor scheme, and there are throws and plays that simply don't translate to the NFL level. Finally, Hooker is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in November.
Off-the-Wall Prediction
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Davenport: Multiple running backs will be drafted on Day 1
There's no question who the No. 1 running back prospect is in 2023—it's Bijan Robinson's world, and everyone else is just living in it. As a matter of fact, there are some who believe that Robinson could be the first running back to be drafted inside the top 10 since Saquon Barkley went second overall in 2018. However, most draftniks believe that Robinson will be the only back taken on Day 1. The running back position just isn't highly valued anymore.
However, there are several teams picking at the back of Round 1 who have a need in the backfield. The Philadelphia Eagles lost Miles Sanders in free agency. The Cincinnati Bengals may move on from Joe Mixon. The Dallas Cowboys let Ezekiel Elliott go.
With Robinson already off the board, one of those teams is going to pull the trigger on Jahmyr Gibbs or Zach Charbonnet. And for one fleeting moment, running backs will matter again.
Gagnon: Bijan Robinson goes to the Las Vegas Raiders seventh overall
I just noted he isn't first-round-worthy, so I see the irony here. But that's kind of the point. Somebody will fall in love with Robinson's skill set and make a wild luxury pick, and it wouldn't blow me away if that somebody were the Raiders.
They've been known to make off-the-wall reaches for offensive skill-position players, and this would align with that if they decide to cut ties with franchise tag recipient Josh Jacobs and that hefty franchise tag salary ($10.1 million) for a player at such a low-value position.
Knox: Five quarterbacks go Round 1
I don't look at this draft class and see five quarterback prospects deserving of a first-round grade.
However, I think we'll see five drafted on opening night. C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young are pretty much early Round 1 locks. I can't see Anthony Richardson slipping too far given his rare combination of size (6'4", 244 lbs), speed (4.43-second 40) and arm strength (second-fastest throw in Indy). I think teams are also higher on Will Levis than many in the media because of his work ethic and ability to operate a pro-style offense. Kentucky OC and former Rams OC Liam Coen recently lauded both in a piece by The Athletic's Jeff Howe.
While Hendon Hooker is coming off a torn ACL and is already 25 years old, I think a team takes a flier on him in Round 1 because of the fifth-year option. NFL Network's James Palmer stated on Steve Smith Sr.'s Cut to It podcast (h/t Bleacher Report's Francisco Rosa) that multiple teams have Hooker ranked above Richardson and Levis. I see five going Round 1, though I'm far less convinced all five will see that lucrative second contract with their original teams.
Moton: Will Levis and Anthony Richardson fall out of the top 10
If the Houston Texans pass on a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson may wait in the green room longer than anyone expects them to on Thursday.
According to ESPN's Matt Miller, the Indianapolis Colts want Levis, but C.J. Stroud's availability would "complicate" their decision with the No. 4 overall pick.
In the event that Indianapolis takes Stroud, the Las Vegas Raiders and Atlanta Falcons could pass on signal-callers to address other major needs for their respective defensive units. Both teams fielded scoring defenses that ranked 23rd or worse last year. The Raiders signed quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said he expects quarterback Desmond Ridder to "take the next step" following his four starts in 2022.
At No. 9, the Chicago Bears will likely move forward with Justin Fields after they traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers. In the 10th spot, the Philadelphia Eagles have Jalen Hurts, who just signed an extension that made him the league's highest-paid player.
Unless a team moves up for a quarterback, Levis and Richardson may wait until the Tennessee Titans make their pick at No. 11.
Sobleski: Utah's Dalton Kincaid will be the first tight end selected
The incoming tight class has been lauded for its depth and overall quality. Notre Dame's Michael Mayer has long been considered the position group's top option. Georgia's Darnell Washington is another possibility because of his massive size (6'7", 264 lbs) and his ability to affect both phases of the game.
Kincaid is the toughest of the bunch and a wonderful playmaker. In fact, he played through a fractured back during the Pac-12 Championship Game—he's since been cleared by doctors. The tenacity with which he plays can be found in every facet of his game. Kindcaid has strong hands and serves as a fantastic threat down the seam.
College statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.
Player contract details are provided by Overthecap.
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