How Worried Should We Be About These 8 Early-Season MLB Busts?
Even this early in the MLB season, enough games have happened for certain players to be performing well below expectations.
Not that it's time to panic, but it is worth gauging how worried we should be about some of the performances we've seen so far.
Keep in mind the game is experiencing some of the most significant rule changes it's ever seen, most notably the pitch clock, which is impacting both pitchers and hitters.
And like every year, there are players adjusting to either new teams or new roles on their existing teams.
Here, we take a look at how worried we should be about eight of MLB's biggest busts up to this point.
Stats updated through Friday courtesy of Baseball Reference,.
M.J. Melendez, Kansas City Royals
1 of 8
Melendez has not taken the expected leap from his rookie season. After hitting 18 home runs in 2022, the 24-year-old has just one homer so far this season, failing to show the power that is supposed to come with his game.
Defense is not Melendez's calling card, though he does have this impressive grab to his resume. His place in right field is solely to get his bat in the lineup, but the results have not been there for Melendez and the Royals.
Through 67 at-bats, he is slashing just .149/.256/.254. His chase rate and strikeout percentage are among the worst in MLB. Melendez still hits the ball hard, just infrequently, whiffing far too often.
He is supposed to be part of the Royals' young core, along with Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. But Kansas City should be worried whether Melendez is the power hitter he showed to be in the minor leagues two years ago and as a rookie last year.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
2 of 8
With Bryce Harper out to start this season and much of last season, Schwarber has emerged as the team leader. He posted a team-high .827 OPS, 46 home runs and 94 RBI on the way to a National League pennant.
This season has not been so promising just 79 at-bats in. Schwarber is slashing .215/.319/.456 and only .200/.333/.360 over his past seven games.
Schwarber leads the Phillies with five home runs, but his expected slugging is down from .535, which was in the top 2 percentile last year, to .444. His hard-hit percentage is down from 54.4 percent to 45.5 percent.
These numbers have to improve if the Phillies are going to make good on an active offseason and try to make another run to the World Series.
Fortunately for Philly, Schwarber is a proven veteran who has performed in plenty of big moments, whether for the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox or Phillies.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
3 of 8
Buxton is a streaky hitter, and as of Friday night, he's in an awful slump.
He entered Friday's action with just one hit and 11 strikeouts in his last 20 at-bats, for a slash line of .050/.231/.100. For the season, Buxton's slashing .242/.311/.409 with two home runs and six RBIs in 66 at-bats.
Those kinds of numbers are not going to get it done for a middle-of-the-order bat like Buxton's, which is being used in the designated hitter role as Michael A. Taylor occupies center field.
The Twins should be worried about this. They are already not a great offensive team, and one of their best offensive players is falling way short.
If Minnesota wants to compete in a weak AL Central, it will need much more from Buxton, who last year hit 28 home runs and posted a .833 OPS. Two years ago, in a much smaller sample size, Buxton's OPS was 1.005. It hasn't been under .827 since 2019.
The Twins need the version of Buxton they've become used to over the past four years.
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
4 of 8
It just doesn't make any sense how Soto has yet to find his footing in San Diego.
The blockbuster trade to bring Soto from the Washington Nationals last year helped the Padres to the National League Championship Series, but they have not yet seen the player who looked to be on track to becoming one of the all-time greats.
Soto posted a .778 OPS in 52 regular season games for the Padres last season. Then in 12 postseason games, his OPS was just .727.
Fast forward to the start of his first full regular season with the Padres and it's been more of the same, maybe even worse in some instances.
Soto, lauded as one of the great hitters of his generation, is slashing .176.351/.378 for a .729 OPS. It could be worse, but pales in comparison to his .942 career mark.
Perhaps just as concerning is Soto blaming the pitch clock because he supposedly does not have enough time between the on-deck circle and plate appearances.
The rules aren't going anywhere, so it's worrisome if Soto continues failing to make this adjustment.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
5 of 8
Nola technically turned in a quality start Friday night against the Colorado Rockies, one of the worst teams in baseball. He gave up three earned runs on four hits, including a home run, in seven innings.
Yet because of Nola's poor start to the season, his ERA is still 5.40. He hasn't looked anything close to the Cy Young candidate he was supposed to be this season.
While his most recent outing was a sign of progress, albeit against the lowly Rockies, Nola had a 7.04 ERA through three starts.
Something to consider with Nola on the mound, like Soto in the batter's box, is how he's adjusting to the pitch clock. Nola was a slow mover on the mound before the newly implemented rules and has not looked the same since.
To make matters worse, Nola's underperforming in a contract year. This is the final year of his deal, and a huge payday is around the corner if he pitches more like he had since 2018.
The worry for Phillies fans is how long it takes for Nola to get it together.
Noah Syndergaard, Los Angeles Dodgers
6 of 8
Buried from the Mets-Dodgers series from earlier in the week, with Max Scherzer's ejection over foreign substance usage on his hand, was Syndergaard delivering his second consecutive quality start.
The problem is he coughed up the Dodgers' lead with a bad changeup in the fifth inning against Brandon Nimmo, who hit out of his mind that day (5 for 5), including a two-run homer.
Syndergaard is 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts. He had mixed results in back-to-back starts against the Arizona Diamondbacks, then a nine-strikeout performance against the Chicago Cubs before Wednesday's outing against the Mets.
He seems to be improving, as the performance against his old team was going well before surrendering the two-run shot to Nimmo.
The Dodgers will certainly need consistency from Syndergaard this season. But right now, he's contributing to a pitching staff with the seventh-highest opponents batting average and 12th-highest ERA.
As a group, the Dodgers are a far cry from last year's group, which led MLB in most key statistics. Syndergaard is their key offseason addition, so it's a worry anytime he struggles.
Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees
7 of 8
In four starts, Schmidt has yet to go more than four innings and has given up either three or four earned runs in each outing. His ERA is 8.79 with a 1.88 WHIP in 14.1 innings pitched.
Suffice to say this is not the start the Yankees envisioned for the 27-year-old right-hander who they drafted 16th overall in 2017.
Schmidt recently developed a cutter that hitters are pulverizing (1.063 slugging percentage, .563 batting average on 73 pitches, per Baseball Savant).
The worry here is significant. Injuries forced the Yankees' rotation to start the season without key members of the rotation, like Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino.
They need Schmidt to at least pitch at a big-league level, and so far, he has not done so.
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros
8 of 8
Before a dominant outing against a loaded Toronto Blue Jays lineup Wednesday night, Garcia had a 7.71 ERA and had not gone more than five innings.
He had given up at least six hits and increasingly gave up more runs with each start, when opponents hit over .300 with a 1.013 OPS. As noted by The Athletic's Chandler Rome, Garcia threw 21 pitches or more in at least two innings in each of his first three starts.
Simply put, Garcia was laboring and getting rocked.
He atoned for it against the Blue Jays, though. In easily his most (and only) impressive start of the season, Garcia gave up just two hits, fanned nine Toronto batters and walked just one.
The nine strikeouts matched a career high, and he generated the most swings-and-misses of his career.
Certainly in Garcia's first three starts, there was cause for worry. But Astros fans should be encouraged by what they saw against the Blue Jays.
Catcher Martin Maldonado said it reminded him of "2021 Luis Garcia," a reference to the pitcher's first full big league season when he finished second in AL Rookie of the Year balloting.
