Projecting the Price Tags For Top NHL Free Agents This Offseason
The first day of the NHL's annual free-agent market is a frenzy of bidding in the opening hours as teams vie for the top available talent. Stars in their playing prime often land lucrative long-term deals as a result.
This year's crop of unrestricted free agents features such notable stars as New York Rangers winger Patrick Kane and Toronto Maple Leafs center Ryan O'Reilly. However, they are now in their 30s' and past their playing prime or getting close to it.
That will have an effect on the free-agent market. So will the possibility of another flattened cap if it only increases by $1 million as projected for 2023-24.
Instead of rich deals stretching to the maximum of seven years, the best UFA talent could end up on short-term contracts with average annual salaries worth less than what they earned on their previous agreements.
Here is our look at this summer's top unrestricted free agents and what we project they'll get based on factors such as age and recent performance. We've excluded Chicago captain Jonathan Toews from our listing as he remains undecided over his future because of health issues.
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Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, Boston Bruins
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The Boston Bruins dominated the 2022-23 season with a record-setting performance of 65 wins and 135 points. Centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí played significant roles in their club's outstanding regular-season performance.
Bergeron, 37, helped out his cap-strapped club last August by signing a one-year contract with a $1.5 million base salary and $3.5 million in signing and performance bonuses. It was a considerable pay cut from the $6.9 million annually that he'd earned on his previous eight-year contract.
After spending last season playing in his native Czechia, the 36-year-old Krejčí agreed to a one-year deal with a $1 million base and $2 million in performance bonuses.
Bergeron stated last May that he'd either re-sign with the Bruins or retire. Krejčí , meanwhile, has given no indication that he'll want to play for a different NHL club. One or both could retire following this season, especially if the Bruins win the Stanley Cup.
The Bruins have $10.6 million in projected cap space for 2023-24 and 14 players under contract. If Bergeron and/or Krejci decide to return next season they'll likely receive one-year deals similar to those they signed for 2022-23.
Projected contracts: Both players sign one-year "35-plus" deals with the Bruins with each getting $1 million in base salary and $1.5 million in performance bonuses.
Patrick Kane, New York Rangers
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Patrick Kane is one of the greatest players in Chicago Blackhawks' history. However, with that club now rebuilding its roster, the 34-year-old winger accepted a trade to the New York Rangers before the March 3 trade deadline.
Kane finished this season with a respectable 21 goals and 57 points in 73 games split between Chicago and the Rangers. Still, that's well below the 92 points in 78 games that he had last season.
Chicago's depleted roster and a nagging lower-body injury contributed to the decline in Kane's production. Barring a significant improvement in his performance in the current postseason with the Rangers, those factors will contribute to what he gets on his next contract.
Kane is completing an eight-year, $84 million contract with a $10.5 million average annual value and a full no-movement clause. He's not going to get anything close to those years or dollars at this stage in his career.
Given his place among the NHL's 100 greatest players, Kane will still garner interest among playoff contenders seeking a winger with his championship pedigree. However, he'll have to accept a significant pay cut.
A comparable would be the Ottawa Senators' Claude Giroux. At age 34 last July, he inked a three-year contract worth an average annual value of $6.5 million. Concerns over Kane's lingering injury, however, could see him getting a shorter term.
Projected Price Tag: Two years, $6.8 million average annual value.
Alex Killorn, Tampa Bay Lightning
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At an age when most players' best seasons are behind them, Alex Killorn enjoyed a career-best performance in 2022-23. The 33-year-old Tampa Bay Lightning winger scored 27 goals and 37 assists for 64 points, bettering his previous numbers in those categories.
Killorn is a skillful two-way forward who can skate on either wing. He's spent his entire 11-season NHL career with the Lightning, usually as a second-line forward. This season marks the seventh time he's reached or exceeded 40 points and the third time he's tallied at least 25 goals.
Completing a seven-year contract with an average annual value of $4.5 million, Killorn has been a bargain for Tampa Bay. However, his performance this season and his 25-goal, 59-point effort in 2021-22 could make him too expensive for the cap-strapped Lightning to retain.
During his tenure with the Lightning, Killorn contributed to the club's rise among the league's elite teams, their back-to-back Stanley Cups and their three consecutive appearances in the Cup Final from 2020 to 2022. His style of play and considerable postseason experience should ensure he draws plenty of suitors in this summer's UFA market.
Killorn's age could limit what he gets in this summer's market and for how long. He turns 34 on Sept. 14, meaning interested clubs won't want to invest too much for too long in his services.
Still, Killorn and his agent could use former Lightning winger Ondrej Palat as a reference point in contract talks. Now 32, he inked a five-year, $30 million deal ($6 million average annual value) last summer with the New Jersey Devils.
Projected contract: Three years, $5.7 million annually.
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Ryan O'Reilly, Toronto Maple Leafs
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Since his breakout season in 2011-12 with the Colorado Avalanche, Ryan O'Reilly garnered a well-deserved reputation as one of the NHL's top two-way centers and least-penalized players. He won the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy in 2013-14, the Frank J. Selke Trophy in 2018-19 and the Conn Smythe Trophy leading the St. Louis Blues to the 2019 Stanley Cup.
Consistency has been O'Reilly's hallmark. Between 2011-12 and 2021-22, he reached or exceeded 54 points 10 times with the Avalanche, Buffalo Sabres and Blues. In July 2015, he signed a seven-year contract with the Sabres worth $7.5 million annually.
This season, however, has been a difficult one for O'Reilly. Injuries limited the 32-year-old center to 16 goals and 30 points in 53 games split between the Blues and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Despite his injury woes, O'Reilly remains a well-regarded two-way center. Those skills and his reputation as a playoff leader and performer were behind the Leafs' decision to acquire him from the Blues on Feb. 17.
O'Reilly should remain a sought-after talent if he hits the open market on July 1. However, his age and his injury issues this season could be issues of concern for interested clubs.
The O'Reilly camp could point to 32-year-old center Nazem Kadri as a comparable contract. He signed a seven-year, $49 million contract last summer with the Calgary Flames. However, Kadri was coming off a career-best 87-point performance helping the Colorado Avalanche win the Stanley Cup last season.
Projected contract: Three years, $6 million average annual value.
Vladimir Tarasenko, New York Rangers
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After 11 seasons with the St. Louis Blues, Vladimir Tarasenko accepted a trade on Feb. 9 to the New York Rangers. The 31-year-old right wing scored 18 goals and 50 points in 69 games split between both clubs this season.
Tarasenko's stats this season were below the 30-plus goals and 66-plus points he netted over six seasons between 2014-15 and 2022-23. That's attributable to the Blues' on-ice struggles and his 10-game absence through January with an injured hand. He also required some adjustment to his new Rangers teammates, tallying 21 points in 31 games with them.
During his final seasons with the Blues, Tarasenko suffered shoulder injuries requiring three surgeries to address. He requested a trade in 2021, sparking speculation that it was over how the Blues handled those injuries which general manager Doug Armstrong denied.
Tarasenko's shoulder injuries limited him to just 34 games combined through 2019-20 and 2020-21. Following his final shoulder surgery, however, he bounced back in 2021-22 with a career-best 84 points.
Coming off a six-year contract worth an average annual value of $7.5 million, Tarasenko's next contract could be under five years given his age and potential concern over his shoulder injury history. Still, the consistency of his production through most of his career should land him a deal close to his annual cap hit.
Tarasenko also stands out in his age group as a scoring right winger, earning more than other comparable players. Those making more, such as Arizona Coyotes winger Jakub Voracek, are on contracts they signed years ago and are either permanently sidelined by injury (like Voracek) or coming to the end of their careers.
Projected contract: Four years, $7 million average annual value.
Stats via NHL.com and salary cap info via Cap Friendly.
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.jpg?w=600 "Lawrence 'Jacked' About Trade")
.jpg?w=600 "Coached Stunned by Lawrence Trade")
