2023 NFL Draft: Players B/R Scouting Dept. Is Lower On Than Consensus
Evaluating NFL draft prospects is a long and grueling process that starts in August and culminates with the actual event in late April. Every team and source evaluates differently, and certain prospects who are deemed high-ranking possibilities are much lower on some boards.
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick walked reporters through his team's process two years ago:
"Not trying to be evasive about the grading and all that, but I would just say that we don't grade players like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. That's just not the way we do it. We use a combination of numbers, letters, colors, and those things all have different meanings depending upon what they would indicate about the player's circumstances or situation or whatever it is that involved the players. And all the players are different, and a lot of them—you know, in the end, there really aren't that many of them that come to a school, play their career there and leave. There's things that happen in between and a variety of circumstances, and so we have ways to identify those.
"So sometimes, the color's going override the number; sometimes, the letter is going override the numbers or the colors and so forth. And so it's not, you know, this guy's at an 85 and this guy's at an 83. It just doesn't work like that."
Basically, numerous factors play into an individual's evaluation beyond tape study, and teams take all of those into account—whether it's medical history, interviews, off-field issues, etc. By the end, NFL front offices aren't nearly as high on some prospects as those looking on from the outside.
As a result, it can be difficult to weed through all of the available names. Bleacher Report's Scouting Department is comprised of five individuals—Brandon Thorn, Brent Sobleski, Cory Giddings, Derrik Klassen and Matt Holder—and the group goes through a similar process to create its own rankings.
Inevitably, some of those evaluations will differ from the general consensus. The following prospects are considered somewhat-to-significantly lower among B/R's rankings than where they tend to land in many projections, starting with a pair of high-profile prospects from the Tennessee Volunteers program.
Quarterback: Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
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As rumors swirl of teams interested in Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker as a potential a first-round pick and having him rated higher than Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis, Bleacher Report's Scouting Department isn't buying the predraft hype.
The reigning SEC Offensive Player of the Year carries a sixth-ground grade on B/R's latest draft board.
"Even before diving into the film, Hooker is a difficult prospect to buy into, because he's 25-years-old (26 by the end of his rookie year), coming off an ACL injury as a player who relies partly on his rushing ability, and played in, what is in my opinion, the fakest offense in the country because of how Tennessee uses the wide hashes and splits," Klassen said.
"Upon diving into the film, you don't see many reps of NFL processing, and his accuracy fares much worse by the eye test than charting numbers or completion percentage.
"The arm talent, interception avoidance and rushing ability are nice traits, but I have a hard time seeing what makes Hooker worth developing as a supposed franchise quarterback."
In this year's class, four quarterbacks clearly stand above the rest in Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Richardson and Levis.
Hendon deserves significant credit for sticking it out after four years with the Virginia Tech Hokies and then leading the Volunteers program back into national relevance. He's a smart and likable prospect, with a few traits that make him an interesting developmental option.
As Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy reported, some NFL executives believe Hooker is the "right guy" to develop.
Is that enough to push him all the way into the first round? It shouldn't be.
Running Back: Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh
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Pittsburgh's Israel Abanikanda burst onto the scene during the 2022 campaign by leading the ACC with 1,431 rushing yards and tied for first in the FBS with 20 rushing touchdowns. The junior became a first-team All-ACC selection and All-American.
As good as his final season on campus turned out to be, Abanikanda's predraft testing proved to be even more impressive. The 5'10", 216-pound ball-carrier didn't test at the NFL Scouting Combine because of a tweaked hamstring, but he blew up Pitt's pro day.
The 20-year-old blazed an unofficial 4.34-second 40-yard dash, according to the Panthers official site. Abanikanda also posted a 41-inch vertical and 10'8" broad jump—both numbers would have ranked first among running backs in Indianapolis.
The production and athletic traits are present. But something is still missing.
"I get the intrigue with Israel Abanikanda conceptually," Klassen said. "He's a young prospect who produced at a high level, and he's got great speed for a 216-pounder.
"Abanikanda's film just isn't as great as the numbers indicate. He's an upright, stiff runner who struggles to play behind his pads the way he should be able to at his size. He doesn't really have the lateral agility teams typically look for from a starting back.
"Additionally, Abanikanda's vision and conviction as a runner are suspect. That could change with experience, of course, but a degree of projection exists that's not comforting."
Team fit and usage within the scheme will be important to maximize Abanikanda's skill set, because he's not a complete runner, hence his current sixth-round grade.
Wide Receiver: Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
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Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt has a direct path toward success at the professional level, though it's narrow based on his current skill set.
Hyatt thrived as a speedy vertical threat in Tennessee's prolific passing attack. So much so, the 21-year-old target emerged last season as the SEC's leading receiver with 1,257 yards and 15 touchdown catches. His performance led to capturing All-American honors and the Fred Biletnikoff Award, which goes to the nation's most outstanding receiver.
However, the aforementioned pathway toward success is basically a straight line.
"The whole deal with Hyatt's profile is trying to fill in the blanks beyond his excellent speed and ball-tracking skills," Klassen said. "Some are optimistic that he can develop his route-running skills, play-strength, blocking, YAC ability, etc. But it's a difficult projection.
"Hyatt's build (6'0", 176 lbs) is so high-hipped and it bleeds into stiff movements, particularly as a route-runner, which creates hesitancy about potential grow within his route tree. Also, Hyatt doesn't seem to have a good sense for creativity and finding angles as a ball-carrier. The early entrant struggles to make the most of his raw speed.
"Hyatt will be an effective deep threat off the bat but that predominant skill may be all he's got. He may not even be in the special tier of deep threats, a la DeSean Jackson."
The underclassman has a defined skill. It's valuable. He can add something right out of the gates. Paying a first-round premium for a Day 2 talent would be a tad rich.
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Tight End: Cameron Latu, Alabama
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This year's incoming tight end class has been lauded as the best in recent memory.
Maybe the group lacks a truly elite option like Kyle Pitts. But the depth and overall quality are exceptional. Three different tight ends—Notre Dame's Michael Mayer, Georgia's Darnell Washington and Utah's Dalton Kincaid—are firmly graded as first-round-caliber by B/R's scouting department.
Four to six more could become Day 2 selections. Alabama's Cameron Latu isn't one of them. In fact, Latu's grade didn't even register on the site's latest draft board, which included 225 prospects, even though he's generally projected as a middle-round option.
"Latu is a middle-round type whose skill set doesn't reflect his projection," Klassen said. "He's considered a 'move' tight end who doesn't actually have athletic traits that pop off the film.
"He's also an undisciplined route-runner, which is a problem for someone whose entire value is intertwined with being a pass-catcher. Latu doesn't bring anything as a blocker right now, either.
"The 23-year-old does display soft hands and the ability to snatch the ball outside his frame. Everything else about his profile disappointed."
To Klassen's point, the 6'4", 242-pound tight end posted a middling relative athletic score, according to Pro Football Network's Kent Lee Platte.
Even as a pass-catcher, Latu never managed more than 30 receptions or 410 receiving yards during his two seasons as a starter. His movement skills aren't where they need to be to serve as a consistent threat in the passing game. Plus, he doesn't add much as an in-line option.
Offensive Tackle: Blake Freeland, BYU
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From purely an athletic standpoint, it's difficult not to get excited about BYU left tackle Blake Freeland.
"Freeland is a 6'8", 300-pound prospect with excellent testing numbers and an accomplished and diverse athletic background from a family of collegiate athletes," Thorn said. "While these are all notable and intriguing aspects of his overall profile, his movement skills, technique and play-strength are all questionable at best.
"Freeland is a four-year starter with plenty of experience but has recurring issues with a lack of leverage and power that will be difficult to correct in the NFL.
"Add in the adjustment he'll likely need going from a run-pass option/screen-heavy, packaged play-centric offense that provided him with a lot of help in pass protection against subpar competition, and the transition to the pro game becomes even more stark.
"Freeland is definitely worth drafting based on traits alone. With the significant amount of obstacles to overcome before entering a starting lineup, his acquisition makes the most sense later in the draft's third day rather than Day 2."
The offensive tackle prospect has a sixth-round grade on B/R's latest draft board. But the appeal is obvious.
In high school, Freeland played quarterback and tight end. He became a six-time all-state (Utah) performer in track and field. He also earned another all-state nod as a basketball player. He then posted a top-25 relative athletic score during the predraft process, with a 4.98-second 40-yard dash, 37-inch vertical and 10-foot broad jump. He's simply a work in progress from the technical side of things.
Interior Offensive Line: IOL Andrew Vorhees
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Versatile blockers who have started at multiple positions enter the professional ranks at an advantage because NFL coaches prefer to cross-train their linemen since teams typically keep eight or maybe nine linemen on the active roster.
USC's Andrew Vorhees showed he could be a valuable part of the Trojans offense through position switches and different systems.
"The former Trojan left Southern California as an accomplished pillar of the program with 48 career starts at three different positions, winning the Morris Trophy in 2022 as the conference's top offensive lineman," Thorn said. "Vorhees is tough and smart with renowned leadership qualities and good play-strength.
"The concerns are three significant lower half injuries (torn ACL, season-ending foot surgery and another surgery for a meniscus injury), below-average athletic ability and marginal arm length (32⅛"). These things shrink his margin for error on the field, especially against NFL competition, and limit his runway to improve beyond a quality backup with spot-starter potential."
The sixth-year senior entered this season as a potential early-round candidate. As Thorn noted, he played well during his final collegiate campaign. However, his draft stock took a significant hit due to the timing of his latest injury. The first-team All-American suffered a torn ACL during drills at the NFL Scouting Combine, per ESPN's Pete Thamel.
While a draft-and-stash approach may be in play for some NFL organization, the previously stated concerns coupled with his most recent injury now make him a late-round possibility, which is lower than his common fourth-round placement.
Defensive Line: Mazi Smith, Michigan
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Michigan's Mazi Smith has the size (6'3", 323 lbs), power and athleticism to be be a dominant force along the defensive interior. But he failed to become that player with any type of consistency during his days in the Wolverines program.
"There's no doubt that Smith has high-end potential in this draft class," Holder said. "He ranked first overall among Bruce Feldman's list of exceptional college athletes entering 2022 for a reason, and that's why many view him as a potential late-first or early-second-round pick.
"However, Smith didn't consistently perform at a high level for someone with his raw ability. He'd have one or two eye-popping reps, then 10 straight plays that would leave you wondering if he's even on the field. He also didn't produce as a pass-rusher with only half a sack in 30 college games. His selection means a team will be betting purely on traits, which makes him more of a late-second or third-round option instead of a first-round lock."
If an interior defender doesn't consistently collapse the pocket, he needs to be a game-wrecker against opposing run games to hold significant draft value. Plenty of times, Smith can be seen playing too high or getting worn down instead of dominating the blocker across from him.
When the first-team All-Big Ten selection is going, though, he has powerful paws to control offensive linemen and eat up blocks. His NFL defensive line coach must coax that version out of Smith on a regular basis. Or, the defensive tackle needs to be placed in a rotation where he's effective in spurts.
Edge-Rusher: Derick Hall, Auburn
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Elite speed and a white-hot motor go a long way for a pass-rusher. Auburn's Derick Hall brings both.
A 4.55-second 40-yard dash when working off the edge is nothing to scoff at, particularly when it's a top-five performance among players over 250 pounds in this year's class.
The first-team All-SEC defender can fly, but his effort is what really jumps of the tape. Hall consistently runs down plays from behind or works his way across the field with good pursuit angles. Over the last two seasons, the edge-defender amassed 112 total tackles, 24 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks.
As a result, Hall has his supporters. His overall agility should be placed under scrutiny, though.
"Hall has received a lot of second-round buzz as a physical player who can set the edge and displays a good long-arm move," Holder said. "However, he looks almost robotic with his movement skills on film and doesn't have a finesse pass-rushing move that he can win with around the edge. Also, he's not very flexible at the top of the rush, which could make teams shy away from him in the draft."
Other more explosive and naturally fluid alternatives are available in the first and second rounds, with the likes of Georgia's Nolan Smith, Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore and possibly even Tennessee's Byron Young if a team prefers to go that route because of questions regarding Hall's overall skill set.
Linebacker: Henry To'oTo'o, Alabama
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The chance to play for a pipeline program known for producing NFL talent at an individual's specific position isn't a free pass into the NFL.
Alabama's linebacker lineage under Nick Saban has seen Rolando McLain, Dont'a Hightower, C.J. Mosley, Reggie Ragland, Reuben Foster, Rashaan Evans and Christian Harris become first- or second-day draft picks.
Henry To'oTo'o was productive in two seasons with the Crimson Tide after transferring from the Tennessee Volunteers, recording 205 total tackles. Even so, he's not in the same category as the others.
"There does seem to be a split in the draft community when it comes to To'oTo'o," Holder said, "and B/R definitely in the skeptical category when it comes to his skill set.
"The first-team All-SEC performer does have good linear movement skills, as evidenced by his 4.62-second 40-time at the combine. But he struggles to change direction, which was also proven in Indianapolis when his short shuttle time came in at 4.4 seconds. To'oTo'o's instincts are also questionable and he's on the smaller side at just 6'1" and 227 pounds."
Generally, off-ball linebackers don't hold significant value anymore. Yet To'oTo'o falls short even when compared to others in this year's class.
Iowa's Jack Campbell, Clemson's Trenton Simpson and Arkansas's Drew Sanders should all be off the board within the first 45 selections. Oregon's Noah Sewell is a bigger and more physical presence. Auburn's Owen Pappoe and Washington State's Daiyan Henley are far more fluid.
To'oTo'o doesn't get an extra bump to his grade just because he produced in the SEC. Instead, he sits solidly in the fourth-round mix.
Cornerback: Tyrique Stevenson, Miami
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Cornerbacks always find themselves pushed up boards because of positional value and how important they are to slow today's passing attack.
Miami's Tyrique Stevenson has the talent, certain athletic traits and skill set to eventually become a starting-caliber defensive back at the professional level. First, he needs to refine and trust his technique more than he currently does.
"Stevenson has the ability to be a starter but must work on his consistency," Giddings said. "He's a corner with very good size who will do well in press-man situations, where he can take advantage of his strength and physicality. In an all-star setting, Stevenson had a good showing at the Senior Bowl.
"But his development will take some time for him to put it all together at the next level. The tools are there. They simply need to be used properly."
The Georgia transfer is a 6'0", 198-pound defender with 32⅜-inch arms. Stevenson posted excellent explosive numbers at the NFL Scouting Combine with a 4.45-second 40-yard dash, 38½-inch vertical and 10'5" broad jump.
However, Giddings' assessment of Stevenson possibly thriving as a press-man corner indicates the corner's change-of-direction agility is suspect. Stevenson tested poorly in that regard with a 4.41-second short shuttle and a 7.09-second three-cone effort. He can be physical near the line of scrimmage, but he shouldn't be asked to lock down opposing receivers.
The underclassman can be exposed in coverage, hence why he's currently carrying a third-round graded instead of something earlier.
Safety: JL Skinner, Boise State
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Bigger safety prospects capable of contributing in multiple roles all over the defense will inevitably be compared to the likes of the Los Angeles Chargers' Derwin James Jr. or even last year's 14th overall draft pick Kyle Hamilton.
Not every bigger defensive back can do what they do. The 6'4", 209-pound JL Skinner isn't as fluid or dynamic as either. But he is a tone-setter, with 157 total tackles over the last two seasons.
"Skinner is unique in this year's class," Giddings said. "Though he can be compared to prospects in previous drafts, he is a one-of-a-kind player. Skinner may not have the elite ball skills as others of similar size and profile, but he definitely shows up in the run game.
"Skinner's size and versatility will place him among the top safeties in this year's draft. However, he will still need to refine his skills and continue to improve his strength at the next level."
Basically, the first-team All-Mountain West performer is at his best when asked to play downhill.
What separates someone like James from most is his ability to affect all phases of the game while still being a big, physical safety. Skinner can do some of those things. He did play near the line of scrimmage, line up over the slot and serve as a deep safety at times. Yet he will have trouble opening his hips when asked to cover vertical threats or shifty targets.
In a terrible safety class overall, Skinner holds significant value. As a result, some teams may consider taking him higher than where he's typically ranked, though B/R is only slightly lower on him than the general consensus.
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