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NFL Playoff Picture: 25 Burning Questions Heading into the Wild Card Round

Adam LazarusJan 3, 2012

17 weeks of the NFL regular season in the books and all it's given us is more questions. 

The playoffs start on Saturday and for all we learned during the 16-game schedule, there's still a ton unanswered. 

I've chosen 25 of the more pressing issues as they relate to the four games this weekend.

Now some of them are purely speculative, others are based on matchups and momentum, while still others are as simple as the health of a specific and key player.

But one thing is for sure: the more we know, the less we understand.

No. 25: Will Mike Smith Gamble or Be Gun-Shy?

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NFL head coaches are always charged with tough decisions that can haunt them: even the great Bill Belichick hasn't quite lived down that decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 against Indianapolis in 2009.

It's not been nearly as hyped as that move, but Mike Smith's choice to go for it on fourth-and-one in overtime (in his own territory) against the Saints remains a big deal. It's not too simplistic to think that that one decision cost the Falcons the NFC South title.

But it  does make you think: if a similar situation arises against the Giants will he take the risky move or play it safe to avoid another "bonehead" move. 

No.. 24: Will Bernard Scott See More Carries Than Cedric Benson?

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Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I don't think the Bengals can look at Cedric Benson as a reliable, workhorse back.

His average per carry is way down, his three 100-yard games came against teams with terrible run defenses (Cleveland and Buffalo) and he does have a lot of miles. 

I'm not saying he should hit the bench, just that if I were a Bengals fan, I'd like to see Bernard Scott carry the rock a bit more. His legs are much fresher and he's shown glimpses of excellence, like last week's touchdown against the Ravens.

With a road game against the Texans—a team featuring their own powerful running back duo—coming up, Cincy is going to have to find ways to maintain possession and wear out the opposing defense. A two-headed running attack is the best way to do that. 

No. 23: Will the Giants Try to Run the Ball?

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Speaking of running the ball with a two-headed duo, the Giants are back in the playoffs. 

And one of the most bizarre stats of the 2011 regular season is where New York finished in the overall team rushing stats: dead last at 89.2 yards per game. 

I know that Eli Manning is playing very well right now and Victor Cruz is close to having a statue erected of him outside Met Life Stadium, but if the Giants are going to put together another remarkable Super Bowl run, the ground game is going to have to play a factor. And they have the two backs to do it: Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs.

The time to start rekindling the run game would be Sunday against Atlanta. 

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No. 22: Will Pittsburgh’s Line Handle Von Miller?

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By Sunday afternoon, the eyes of the football world will be squarely on Tim Tebow.

But a better Broncos youngster to keep an eye on would be their rookie linebacker Von Miller. He is the key to a Denver win.

Pittsburgh's offensive line has been as inconsistent and injury-plagued as any in the NFL this year and the Broncos will do whatever they have to take advantage of that.

Miller had 11.5 sacks in 15 regular season games and he has both the size and strength to bring down a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger.

It will be interesting to see whether or not the Steelers are forced to keep Heath Miller—one of their most reliable short-yardage pass catchers—in to block or at least get a piece of Von Miller. Their play-action will already be limited with the loss of Rashard Mendenhall. 

No. 21: Will Jason Pierre-Paul Harass Matt Ryan?

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Based on the way he finished the season, there's a case to be made that Jason Pierre-Paul is the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year. Either way, he has become a monster and one of the more difficult players to block in all of the NFL.

That's bad news for Matt Ryan and an Atlanta Falcons offensive line that has struggled at times. 

But even if Tyson Clabo and/or Will Svitek are able to contain Pierre-Paul, there's Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck to worry about. That defensive line recorded five sacks of Tony Romo in the critical win over Dallas. 

Atlanta will probably be able to run the ball more effectively than Dallas did that night, so that will slow down Pierre-Paul and company.

But sooner or later, the Falcons will try and hit the home run with Julio Jones and if they don't protect Ryan, Pierre-Paul will pin his ears back and target a sack/fumble.

No. 20: How Reliable Is Mike Nugent?

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I'm not trying to nit-pick here, but playoff games often come down to kickers, whether it's in overtime or the final seconds of the fourth quarter, or overtime, or even a score before halftime.

And if the Bengals are going to go to Houston and defeat the Texans, they'll need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity. They can't afford to miss makable field goals. 

Unfortunately, their kicker has cost them points a few times in recent weeks. Mike Nugent missed a 36-yarder in Week 17 against Baltimore and two from inside 40 yards against Arizona the week before.

In the playoffs, settling for field goal attempts is bad enough; missing those field goal attempts can be paralyzing. 

No. 19: Will the Lions Special Teams Stop Darren Sproles?

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Darren Sproles has been a dynamic addition to an already dynamic Saints offense. But he's delivered another wrinkle to the New Orleans scoring attack as a kick and punt returner. 

Defensively, the Lions are already behind the eight-ball coming into their Wild Card game against New Orleans. They cannot afford to surrender even more points and yards on special teams. 

So they had better shore up one of the worst kick/punt coverage units in the NFL (seventh worst on kickoffs, second worst on punts) or Drew Brees will have an even easier time Saturday night in the absurdly loud Superdome. 

No. 18: Does Jake Delhomme Have Anything Left?

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Reports out of Houston indicate that T.J. Yates damaged shoulder won't keep him from playing Saturday against Cincinnati. But if we've learned anything about the Texans this year it's that quarterbacks tend to have a very short lifespan. 

So, perhaps more than any other team in the postseason, the Houston's backup could play a huge part in his team's survival. Jake Delhomme, the recently retired Jake Delhomme, is their backup and he could very well see duty against the Bengals. 

He played very well in his lone appearance last week against the Titans, but he's still very rusty and in his last playoff appearance, he turned the ball over six times against the Cardinals back in 2008. Not terribly encouraging. 

No. 17: Does the Broncos Secondary Have the Speed to Stop Pittsburgh?

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The Broncos pass rush is great: Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil combined for 21 sacks this year. And they also have the benefit of a great corner in Champ Bailey. 

But both of Denver's starting corners, Bailey and Andre' Goodman, have a combined 23 years experience. While that makes them wily old veterans, it also leads to speculation over whether or not they'll have the legs to keep up with Pittsburgh's two burners, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.

With Ben Roethlisberger's improvisation skills the Denver secondary will have to hold their coverage that extra split second and that always gives a speedy receiver the advantage. 

No. 16: How Will the Falcons Handle the New Jersey Weather?

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With two games being played in domes and another game featuring two teams very used to cold weather conditions (Denver and Pittsburgh) only one of the showdowns this weekend puts a road team at disadvantage because of the weather....possibly.

The Falcons are a dome team that already has issues with winning playoff games. If there is cold weather and/or windy conditions at Met Life Stadium Sunday afternoon that might hamper Matt Ryan's ability to get the ball downfield to Julio Jones and Roddy White. 

Take that away and the Falcons offense becomes very one-dimensional: advantage Giants. 

No. 15: Will the Lions Protect Matthew Stafford?

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The Lions are going to have a tremendously difficult time running the ball on the Saints. They're already down to their third string running back, and New Orleans run defense is better than average, 12th best in the NFL.

That will allow Gregg Williams to dial up plenty of blitzes, even more than he usually does. 

In the regular season showdown, New Orleans brought Stafford down three times and hit him five more times. 

As great as Calvin Johnson is, he can't catch passes downfield if Stafford is on his back. 

No. 14: Will Any Texans Receivers Take Pressure of Andre Johnson?

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Andre Johnson may be back in the lineup, but he's not going to be 100%. And even if he was, with an ailing rookie under center, Johnson won't be able to dominate a very consistent Bengals secondary. 

That means someone is going to have to step up and get open. And other than Owen Daniels, no Texans receiver or tight end has been very reliable.

Kevin Walter had just five catches during the season-ending three game losing skid and Jacoby Jones has just six. 

Undoubtedly getting the the duo Arian Foster and Ben Tate going will be Gary Kubiak's first priority. But sooner or later, they'll have to throw the ball and Cincy will try to take Johnson away and dare one of the other receivers to beat them. 

No. 13: Will the Texans Protect the Ball in Their Rematch?

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With a third-string, rookie quarterback nursing an injury at the helm the Texans have plenty of worries heading into the postseason.

And as great as their running game is with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, they are going to need to protect the football in order to win their first-ever playoff game.

That's not what happened when these two teams met back in Week 14. T.J. Yates turned the ball over twice, and both Foster and Tate lost fumbles as well. 

Houston lost the turnover battle that day in Paul Brown Stadium, but won the game. Don't expect the same to be true Saturday in Reliant Stadium.

No. 12: Is Ben Roethlisberger Healthy Enough to Scramble?

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After sitting out the Rams game with his high ankle sprain, Ben Roethlisbeger returned to the starting lineup in Week 17 against Cleveland.

And it's no coincidence that the Steelers offense struggled a great deal in that narrow victory.

Obviously Roethlisberger has become the focal point of that Steelers offense and when he is healthy, they might be able to overcome an injury to their starting running back (Rashard Mendenhall) and their star center, Maurkice Pouncey.

But he's not healthy.

His mobility is largely diminished and that's a huge part of his game. If he can't scramble, he becomes a sitting target for elite pass rushers Von Miller and Elivs Dumervil. If he can scramble, however, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Heath Miller become even greater threats. 

No. 11: Will the Saints Have an Answer for Calvin Johnson?

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Remember what Larry Fitzgerald did in the playoffs three season ago? He put together as dominant a postseason performance as any wide receiver in NFL history. And that includes Jerry Rice.

That 30-catch, 546-yard, seven-touchdown performance in his first postseason was Fitzgerald's coming out party, one that Calvin Johnson will be looking to repeat. And make no mistake about it, Johnson is more than capable of doing so.

His first test will be in New Orleans, where the Saints defense—renowned for it's high-risk, high-reward approach on defense—will do everything they can to stop him.

Gregg Williams might have to curb his zeal for pressure (especially in the form of safety Roman Harper) and rely more on flooding the zones. 

No. 10: What Does Ryan Clark's Absence Mean for the Steelers?

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The Steelers announced that they will not let Ryan Clark play in Sunday's trip to Denver: the health risk is just too great following what happened to him in the Mile High City back in 2007. 

Now people are right to say that Clark's absence—this week, at least—isn't nearly as impactful as it would be if the Steelers were playing New England or a team with even an average passing game. Denver just doesn't have the fire power, at quarterback and in their receiving corps, to overwhelm Pittsburgh's fine defense through the air. 

But they do run the ball with exceptional consistency: best in the NFL. 

Clark may not be as important to that team as Troy Polamalu, but he does play a key role in defending the run and without him on the field, Denver's ground game will have another advantage. 

No. 9: Will Victor Cruz Master the Falcons?

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Victor Cruz has been a godsend for the Giants and Eli Manning this year and with the Falcons coming to town, that should continue. 

Atlanta's secondary has been torched in recent weeks: not only did Drew Brees carve them up, but so too did Josh Freeman and the putrid Bucs. 

Now to stop Cruz, they presumably have Brent Grimes back, but it's arguably more important that they limit his yards-after-the-catch. 

As good as Cruz has been lately—the long touchdowns against Dallas and the Jets—they weren't on long bombs. They were because Cruz shook poor tackling. If they limit a 10-yard catch to a 10-yard gain—and not an 80-yard touchdown—the Falcons will have a chance. 

No. 8: Which Rookie Quarterback Will Excel in Houston?

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For whatever reason the last few years have become a golden age for rookie quarterbacks. Starting with Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez, there has been no reason why rookies have to sit on the sideline and hold the clipboard. 

In 2011 Cam Newton took it to a new level. 

But Newton is at home for the postseason while two of his rookie peers, Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates, are facing one another in Wild Card weekend.

So who has the edge? It's tough to say: Dalton has a healthy A.J. Green while Yates has a limited Andre Johnson....of course Yates has the superior running game. 

One thing is for sure: Dalton, who has been the starter since Week 1, has far more seasoning than the the injured Yates, who just six weeks ago was a third string quarterback.

No. 7: Will the Lions Put Any Pressure on Drew Brees?

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Although Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh are the bigger names and probably more talented, the duo of Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch were the far more productive pass rushers. The two combined for 19 sacks, but none in the last two weeks.

Their presence as edge rushers will be critical in the Wild Card showdown in the Superdome. In the Week 13 loss, they failed to sack Drew Brees in the second half. Expect Sean Payton's offense to stay with the same gameplan for keeping Detroit's pass rush at bey. 

There is one critical change to that formula, however and it relates directly to the next slide.....

No. 6: Will Ndamukong Suh and the Lions Keep Their Cool in the Big Easy?

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In the regular season loss to New Orleans the Lions didn't have Ndamukong Suh to pressure Drew Brees up the middle. He was serving his two-game suspension for Stomp Gate that happened against Green Bay on Thanksgiving. 

Ironically enough, that day in the Superdome Suh's teammates picked up the slack for him and committed several costly, emotion-induced penalties that helped bury any chance of a win.

Given that and Suh's clear anger management issues, Jim Schwartz will no doubt be preaching composure as much as anything. Especially if the Lions fall behind early. 

Will the young team and it's temperamental defensive superstar heed their head coach's words? 

No. 5: Will Matt Ryan Finally Win a Playoff Game?

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A quarterback's legacy is forged in the playoffs, not the regular season.

As much as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and even Eli Manning achieved in the previous decade's regular seasons, it's what they did in the playoffs that truly made them superstars. 

If Matt Ryan—who is on his way to owning all the Falcons passing records—truly wants to join that group of elite quarterbacks, he'll have to win a Super Bowl. But first, he has to win a playoff game, something he hasn't done in two tries, largely due to the fact that he threw multiple interceptions in both losses. 

No. 4: Will the Giants Run Defense Slow Down Michael Turner?

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The Giants had a ridiculously tough schedule this year, but people tend to overlook the fact that they rarely faced any one of the NFL's elite running backs.

Against the 49ers, Frank Gore missed a huge chunk of the game, Steven Jackson sat out the Week 2 visit by the Rams, and DeMarco Murray missed virtually all of the two games in December. 

And when they actually did face elite runners like the Eagles' LeSean McCoy (over 100-yards in both games) and the Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch (98 yards) the Giants run defense was porous. 

Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey knows those stats as well. 

No. 3: How Will the Steelers Running Game Recover?

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I don't think the loss of Rashard Mendenhall is terribly crippling for the Steelers offense. That offense relies more on the passing game than ever before and with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown they can still score points....assuming Ben Roethlisbeger is reasonably healthy. 

But they still have to at least try to run the ball 15-20 times to slow down Denver's pass rush. That's a tougher task without Mendenhall...even tougher since Mewelde Moore is beat up as well.

Isaac Redman will be tasked with the gig and behind an offensive line that is equally banged up, the Broncos catch a huge break. 

No. 2: Which Giant Team Will Show Up?

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It's great that the Giants returned to the playoffs and finally snapped their December woes. And it's reasonable that some people  think they are a "dangerous" team now that they've made it to the tournament. 

But we've been duped by the Giants before and not just in 2008 when they were the NFC's top-seed. 

This year, they beat the Patriots and everyone expected them to be Super Bowl contenders: they then lost four in a row. Then they nearly beat the undefeated Packers and came back to topple the Cowboys. Again, everyone thought they were a serious threat: they then lost at home to the woeful Redskins.

Even in the Sunday Night win over Dallas they pounded the Cowboys through one-half then had to hang on as they saw their lead cut to seven late in the fourth quarter. 

This is as schizophrenic a team as any in recent NFL history so who knows what to expect come Sunday. 

No. 1: Will Tim Tebow’s Magic Resurface?

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After the record-setting play of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and rookie Cam Newton, the biggest story of the 2011 NFL season has been Tim Tebow. 

He was awful, then a miracle worker, then finished the season with two bad performances. 

Now he takes his show to the postseason and his first challenge is against the NFL's best overall defense, best scoring defense, and best pass defense. 

That does not bode well for Tebow, Demarius Thomas, Eric Decker and the rest of the Broncos limited passing game. 

We all know that during his awesome Sports Illustrated cover earning stretch, Tebow was aided by great play from the entire Denver team. But now they all believe they can win unwinnable games under him. He'll have to validate that trust now in another impossible situation.  

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