The 7 Most Plausible 2023 NFL Draft-Day Trades
The draft is the highlight event of the NFL offseason. It's a weekend filled with hope positivity and fun while also being unpredictable. We may think we know what teams are going to do, but trades can quickly alter the draft picture significantly.
Last year, we saw nine trades occur during the first round alone. We've already had one pre-draft trade, as the Carolina Panthers moved up to No. 1 overall. More opening-night deals will inevitably follow.
We recently took a look at one trade that could benefit each NFL franchise. Not every team will be wheeling and dealing on opening night, but some will with particular trade scenarios being far more plausible than others.
Here, we'll rank the seven most plausible trades we expect to see or at least see discussed on opening night. Factors like draft positioning, team needs, the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest draft rankings and any relevant recent buzz will be taken into consideration.
First, though, let's check out an honorable mention.
Honorable Mention: Arizona Deals One of Its Standouts
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The Arizona Cardinals and star wideout DeAndre Hopkins have been the subject of trade rumors throughout the offseason. However, the latest intel suggests that teams aren't eager to pick up Hopkins' 2023 salary and that he's also a candidate to be released.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler said the following on SportsCenter (h/t Bleacher Report's Joseph Zucker):
"Teams I've talked to believe the Cardinals haven't really been willing to pay the salary," he reported. "He has $19.5 million on the books. That's a little rich for some of the receiver-needy teams out there."
Fowler also noted that the 30-year-old "is largely expected to be on the move, either via trade or release."
Hopkins could be dealt over draft weekend, but it's starting to feel like any trade will occur after the draft—when a receiver-needy team that didn't pick up a top prospect becomes more desperate. Teams may also be willing to wait and see if Hopkins simply hits the open market.
The Cardinals could also look to move Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker, who has requested a trade, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. It's certainly a situation that bears watching, but new head coach Jonathan Gannon may not be willing to acquiesce.
Gannon is a defensive coach who will be tasked with improving an Arizona defense that ranked 31st in points allowed last season. Baker is one of the team's best defenders, and keeping him should be a priority for the new regime.
This is another potential trade that may happen after the draft, when Arizona has a better idea of its roster and replacement options.
7. Lamar Jackson on the Move
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The uncertain future of Lamar Jackson has been arguably the biggest story of the 2023 offseason. The Baltimore Ravens gave the signal-caller the non-exclusive franchise tag, meaning he is free to sign another team's offer sheet. Jackson has also requested a trade from the organization.
However, no team has moved on the 2019 MVP yet, and the longer Jackson idles, the more likely it seems that he'll simply sign his franchise tender and eye 2024 free agency. This is why this trade isn't ranked higher on our list.
Until that happens, though, the possibility that Jackson won't return remains real. According to ESPN's Jamison Hensley, recently signed Ravens receiver Odell Beckham Jr. stated that while Jackson helped recruit him to Baltimore, he gave the wideout no assurances that he would play with him this season.
If Jackson hasn't signed his tender and doesn't have a new contract before April 27, Baltimore may rip off the proverbial Band-Aid and move Jackson. It could become motivated to do so if a team picking near the top of the draft—like the Indianapolis Colts—can give the Ravens a shot at a top QB prospect.
"My bet is the Ravens would take the fourth pick in the draft, solely, for Jackson," Peter King of ProFootballTalk wrote.
Indianapolis has a chance to draft its quarterback of the future, but there's no guarantee its preferred prospect will still be on the board at No. 4. If that happens—or if another quarterback-needy team is in a similar situation—a draft-day Jackson trade just might get done.
6. Texans Move Down from No. 2
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The Colts aren't the only team interested in a quarterback. Carolina presumably traded up to No. 1 to address the position, and the Houston Texans should be eyeing signal-callers at No. 2.
Three of the four top QB prospects— —Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Alabama's Bryce Young, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis—will still be available when Houston is on the clock.
However, there has been talk that the Texans won't draft a quarterback at No. 2 if it doesn't absolutely love the prospect.
"in the last few days, I've heard this about Houston GM Nick Caserio: Very conservative. If he doesn't love a quarterback at two, he's not going to force it," King wrote.
If, for example, the Texan only view Young as a can't-miss prospect, they might eschew a quarterback early and take a flier on one with or by trading up from the No. 12 selection.
"I think Bryce Young is going to be the No. 1 pick, and they're not going to have a chance to take the guy that I think they would've like to have taken," Schefter said on NFL Live (h/t Josh Criswell of the Houston Chronicle). "So now they're sitting there at No. 2, and what do you do?"
Hypothetically, Houston could trade the No. 2 pick to a quarterback-needy team and add some additional draft capital. However, it still feels like taking the second-best quarterback on the board would be in the Texans' best interest.
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5. Eagles Trade out of Round 1
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The Philadelphia Eagles managed to keep key contributors like Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, James Bradberry and Darius Slay this offseason. However, Philadelphia has also lost high-end players like defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and running back Miles Sanders.
Finding a replacement for Sanders could be in Philadelphia's early-draft plans, according to ESPN's Matt Miller.
"Running back comes up a lot when talking to both team and league sources about the Eagles' draft plans," Miller wrote.
The Eagles might use one of their two first-round picks (Nos. 10 and 30) to grab a running back. They might also trade the latter pick so that a team can move into (or back into) the first round.
Teams frequently move from the top of Round 2 into Round 1 in order to get the fifth-year option on a rookie contract. The New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars both did it last year. Teams like the Los Angeles Rams (no first-round pick) and the Pittsburgh Steelers—who own the first selection on Day 2—could be inclined to make a move this year.
It would be a logical trade for the Eagles if they like a running back like Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 30. Theoretically, Philadelphia could move down a few spots, still grab a ball-carrier and add an extra draft selection with which to address a free-agent departure.
General manager Howie Roseman has holes to fill and has shown that he isn't afraid to flip draft picks for additional selections. The Eagles have the 10th pick because Roseman traded two first-round picks to the New Orleans Saints a year ago.
4. Tennessee Makes a Move
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The Tennessee Titans have a solid signal-caller in Ryan Tannehill, but he's entering the final year of his contract. Tennessee also has a developmental quarterback in Malik Willis, though the Liberty product was a borderline disaster as a rookie last year (42.8 passer rating).
The problem is that Tennessee probably won't be able to land one of the top QB prospects at No. 11. At least two will be off the board by Indianapolis' fourth selection—probably three of them—and the Las Vegas Raiders could be in the QB market at No. 7.
According to Miller, the Titans aren't discussing a trade up for a quarterback just yet but are widely expected to do so.
"Everyone outside Tennessee thinks they'll trade up, but no one in the organization is saying it directly -- yet," one unnamed AFC executive told Miller.
This meshes with an earlier report from NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah that suggested Tennessee could target the Arizona Cardinals' third overall selection.
"Again, this is just people around the league who said do not sleep on Numero 11. The Tennessee Titans," Jeremiah said on his Move the Sticks podcast (h/t Buck Reising of A to Z Sports). "The two teams to keep an eye on with the trade-ups were the Raiders and the Titans."
A lot will hinge on how new general manager Ron Carthon views Tannehill's long-term potential. If they believe that Tannehill has already taken the Titans as far as he can, they may be incentivized to move up for a quarterback and move on from Tannehill after the season.
A trade can't be guaranteed, though, because the right prospect would have to be available in a draft slot that Tennessee can acquire.
3. The Colts Step Up
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The Colts are reportedly high on Levis and could be circling him at No. 4.
"Will Levis and the Colts, there is a little bit of buzz leaguewide about that pairing at No. 4 overall," Fowler said on SportsCenter.
However, there's no guarantee that Levis will still be available at No. 4. Teams appear to think very highly of the former Wildcat, and his experience in a pro-style offense under Liam Coen, who was the Rams' offensive coordinator last season, is the reason why.
The Athletic's Jeff Howe recently explained:
"He played a key role in Kentucky's fourth 10-win season in program history. What's more, Levis accomplished all of that in a pro-style offense that Coen brought from Sean McVay's Rams. While so many college offenses rely on tempo and short play calls from sideline posterboards, Levis' play calls in the huddle were 15-20 words, and he went to the line with three checks on every play."
Even if the Panthers are sold on Young, the Texans and any team that trades up to No. 3 could be threats to steal Levis away from Indianapolis. The Titans, Raiders and Seattle Seahawks could all be threats to move up too.
"The buzz is that the Seahawks will jump up from No. 5 to No. 3 to grab either Richardson or Levis, as Stroud and Young are expected to go 1-2," The Athletic's Vic Tafur wrote.
This could prompt the Colts to move up a spot or two to ensure that he doesn't get away.
The reality is that if Indy stays put at No. 4, it may get the fourth-best quarterback on its draft board. If the Colts would prefer to gamble on a prospect instead of making a move for Jackson, trading up would be a very logical maneuver.
2. Aaron Rodgers Finally Goes to the Jets
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Along with the Jackson story, the Aaron Rodgers trade drama has been the offseason's headliner. Rodgers wants to play for the New York Jets, but the Green Bay Packers have yet to flip the switch on a trade. Jets general manager Joe Douglas insists that a deal will get done.
"He's gonna be here," Douglas told fans at an event hosted by Audacy's WFAN Sports Radio.
The problem is that Green Bay and New York can't agree on trade compensation.
"[Green Bay] wants a premium package of draft picks in exchange for [Rodgers], presumably over multiple years," Fowler said Saturday on SportsCenter (h/t Bleacher Report's Joseph Zucker). "The Jets have just been unwilling at this point to go that far."
If a deal isn't done before Round 1, it might just happen on opening night. New York currently holds the 13th overall pick in the draft. If the Jets don't love the players available in that draft slot, they may decide that offering it to Green Bay is the right course of action.
The Jets also have a pair of second-round selections after trading wideout Elijah Moore to the Cleveland Browns. One or both of those selections could become more enticing to the Packers as Round 1 unfolds.
If, for example, Green Bay wants to trade up from No. 15 for a specific prospect, it might agree to deal Rodgers for the 42nd and/or 43rd selection to upgrade its trade capital. Alternatively, the Packers might find that enough top-end talent is still available as Day 1 comes to a close and those Day 2 picks are more valuable than previously thought.
It certainly feels like a Rodgers trade will get done on or before the draft, but the Packers could afford to wait. Rodgers is due a $58.3 million option bonus, but that doesn't have to be paid until the start of the regular season.
1. Arizona Trades the No. 3 Selection
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There are no guarantees in the NFL draft, but Arizona trading its No. 3 selection is about as close to one as we've seen this offseason.
As previously mentioned, the Titans, Seahawks and Raiders have all been linked to the selection. The Colts are another logical trade partner. That's four potential suitors, and we've only examined teams in the market for a quarterback.
What if a team like the Detroit Lions (No. 6) or the Atlanta Falcons (No. 8) is looking to move up for a top defensive prospect like Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. or Clemson's Myles Murphy? The list of teams interested in the No. 3 selections could approach the double digits.
According to Schefter, at least six teams have already looked into acquiring the pick:
Arizona could stay put and take the best player on its board, but it isn't in the market for a quarterback. Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn ACL but is under contract through the 2028 season.
With an early run on quarterbacks expected, Arizona should be able to move down a few spots and still grab a blue-chip prospect. The big question is whether teams will offer up enough to make that move worth it for the Cardinals.
With so many teams already interested in moving to No. 3, it's hard to envision general manager Monti Ossenfort not getting an offer that he likes.
We can't say with certainty that Arizona will move out of the No. 3 spot, but it seems more likely to happen than not.
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