B/R Staff: Biggest X-Factor for Every 1st-Round 2023 NBA Playoff Series
With the regular season and the play-in tournament behind us, the 2023 NBA Playoffs are finally here, and each individual series is loaded with factors that could swing results either way.
As you settle in for the most exciting part of the league's schedule, Bleacher Report's NBA staff has you covered with the biggest factors for each of the eight matchups.
You might even call them X-Factors.
Whether it's outside shooting, an individual player, a specific one-on-one matchup or something else, we have all 16 teams covered below.
Eastern Conference: No. 4 Cavs vs. No. 5 Knicks
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Isaac Okoro missed the final game of the Cavs-Knicks regular-season series due to knee soreness, and it showed.
New York dropped 130 points on the Cavaliers' top-ranked defense in Cleveland, with Jalen Brunson racking up a career-high 48 points in the process. Without their best perimeter defender in Okoro to slow down Brunson, the star guard and his team got whatever they wanted offensively.
Of course, this wasn't the case when Okoro faced New York the other three times this season.
While Brunson scored nearly 50 points on 56.3 percent shooting with Okoro sidelined, the 26-year-old averaged a far more modest 17.7 points on 41.7 percent shooting in the three games where Okoro was present. The Knicks put up 101.7 points per game in these contests, a huge drop from the 130 without the Cavs' defensive specialist.
Okoro is currently working his way back to the court and is considered day-to-day. His availability in the series, and potential defensive work on Brunson, will play a big role in who ultimately moves on to Round 2.
Western Conference: No. 3 Kings vs. No. 6 Warriors
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Domantas Sabonis is the main reason for the Sacramento Kings' league-best offense and related return to the playoffs for the first time in 16 years. Yet to the Golden State Warriors, he might as well be a walking bullseye. Shaky in space, too slow to switch and generally unable to alter shots at the rim when in drop coverage, Sabonis is precisely the kind of limited postseason defender smart offenses target.
Golden State doesn't run many pick-and-roll sets, but ball screens above the arc are staples in its offense. Whenever possible, the Warriors will make sure Sabonis' man is the one setting the screen or running the handoff game with Stephen Curry. Sacramento can try to pre-switch to keep Sabonis out of the main action or deploy quick traps on the ball-handler, but it won't be able to show the Warriors anything they haven't seen countless times before.
There's no scenario in which Kings head coach Mike Brown, whose years as an assistant in Golden State prepared him for what's coming, will take Sabonis off the court. So Sacramento's chances will depend on Sabonis either defending at a level he's never shown before, or the Warriors inexplicably failing to exploit one of the most favorable postseason defensive matchups they've ever seen.
Eastern Conference: No. 3 76ers vs. No. 6 Nets
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The Nets are fighting up a weight class here, and they need something close to a best-case scenario to even make this a series with the 76ers. That means Mikal Bridges must sustain his second-half star turn, but that won't be enough on its own.
For Brooklyn to really put some fear in Philly, Spencer Dinwiddie has to deliver night after night.
That's asking a lot, as consistency isn't his strength. In his third-to-last outing of the regular season, he popped for 30 points on 13-of-24 shooting. In his final two games, he scored 12 points total while going 3-of-21 from the field and 0-of-10 outside.
Brooklyn desperately needs him to uncover the key to stability. Half-court offense will be a grind against Philly's eighth-ranked defense, and Dinwiddie might be the Nets' best option to win one-on-one battles. After his trade to Brooklyn, he averaged 1.20 points per isolation possession, slotting him in the league's 93rd percentile.
On his best nights, he looks like an offensive star. Since the Sixers have actual stars on their roster, the Nets need Dinwiddie to look the part as often as possible to have a chance.
Western Conference: No 4 Suns vs. No. 5 Clippers
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Give the Clippers a healthy Paul George, and they could go star-for-star with the Suns. But with George working his way back from a knee sprain and "expected" to miss at least the start of this series, per Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium, L.A. has an ill-timed star shortage.
Unless, of course, former MVP Russell Westbrook ramps up his resurgence.
Ditched at the deadline by the Los Angeles Lakers and discarded by the Utah Jazz, he found his footing with the Clippers. His counting categories are always strong based on his full-throttle play style, but his stat sheet shows the kind of efficiency and impact that has often eluded him.
His shooting rates over 21 games with the club are better than any he's posted. If maintained for a full season, he would have new career marks from the field (48.9 percent) and from three (35.6). Equally important, those numbers have mattered, as L.A. has fared 3.0 points better per 100 possessions with him than without.
If he remains a positive presence and Kawhi Leonard performs like a superstar, the Clippers have a chance to spoil the Suns' first playoff run with Kevin Durant.
Eastern Conference: No. 2 Celtics vs. No. 7 Hawks
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The 57-win Boston Celtics should be favored heavily over the .500 Atlanta Hawks. Boston swept the season series 3-0 (though the final contest was a recent "rest" game). If they play their game, the Celtics should be able to advance.
But the Hawks certainly have a chance. Beyond the obvious need to get a ton of points and assists from guards Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, the more significant challenge for Atlanta will be on the defensive end against the elite Boston wings, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. And that will require the team playing connected defensively.
That's asking a lot, given the Hawks were 22nd overall with a 115.4 defensive rating (while the Celtics were second at 110.6). But Atlanta has the talent and experience to step that up, specifically with De'Andre Hunter, John Collins, Clint Capela, Murray and, off the bench, Onyeka Okongwu. Young can be a liability, but the Celtics get less of their offense at the point.
The only way Atlanta has a shot is if it puts on the kind of defensive showing it couldn't sustain throughout the regular season.
Western Conference: No. 2 Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Lakers
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The Memphis Grizzlies draw a difficult matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, especially with big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke sidelined with injuries. It may take a huge series from Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jaren Jackson Jr. to outlast Anthony Davis and L.A.
Jackson, a capable scorer at 18.6 points per game this season, must avoid foul trouble. Without him, the Grizzlies could struggle with Xavier Tillman Sr., Santi Aldama and Kenneth Lofton Jr. as the only other sizable players to throw at Davis.
Coach Taylor Jenkins may need to run some junk defenses with multiple players crowding the paint, hoping to deny Davis the ball. He could emulate the Boston Celtics' approach that sees them use guard Malcolm Brogdon as the primary on Davis with help coming from multiple directions. That could be Dillon Brooks, David Roddy or even Desmond Bane, but the downside is opening up the game for the rest of the Lakers' scorers, such as LeBron James, D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, etc. This team is more potent in the post-Russell Westbrook era.
The more Jackson can take the assignment directly while challenging Davis on the offensive end, the better the Grizzlies' chances of getting through the series.
Eastern Conference: No. 1 Bucks vs. No. 8 Heat
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There's a little history between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat. The latter eliminated the Bucks in the 2020 playoffs on their way to the Finals. The next year, the Bucks took out the Heat on the way to an NBA championship.
The biggest difference, of course, was the presence of Jrue Holiday, who's had a transformative impact on Milwaukee. He's not the biggest X-Factor in this series, though. If the Bucks just play their game, they should win. They're the top seed in the East for a reason.
The only way Miami makes this interesting is if it gets scorching hot from three, particularly on shots created by Jimmy Butler. If he's able to get into the paint and spray out to the likes of Max Strus, Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry for open triples, they have to hit them.
The Heat only converted seven of Butler's 20 potential assists against the Bucks in the regular season, a mark that fell well shy of the 52.2 percent conversion rate against everyone else.
To win this series, they might need to drag that number closer to 60, and a lot of the makes will need to be threes.
Western Conference: No. 1 Nuggets vs. No. 8 Timberwolves
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Thanks to a listless close to the regular season, scores of pundits are out on the Denver Nuggets as title contenders, but they still opened as heavy favorites to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round, per FanDuel. That's just sort of par for the course for the 1-8 matchup.
In all likelihood, Nikola Jokić will dominate (he's averaged 28.7 points, 11.1 rebounds and 9.9 assists over his last 10 games against Rudy Gobert) and Denver will win in five or six games.
But Anthony Edwards is the X-Factor who could make this thing interesting.
Denver's best perimeter defenders are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown, both of whom are better suited to bother opposing guards. They're simply too small to bother the 6'4", 225-pound Edwards. Another option, Michael Porter Jr., may not be quick enough to stay in front of Ant outside. And you can't put Aaron Gordon on him and leave Karl-Anthony towns to MPJ.
Edwards is undoubtedly a matchup problem for the Nuggets. And if he produces like he did in the 2022 postseason, when he averaged 25.2 points and 3.8 threes per game while shooting 40.4 percent from outside, Denver could get uncomfortable.
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