Fluke or For Real? Breaking Down MLB's Stunning Starts to 2023
Ah, April. It's that time of year when it's OK for fans of Major League Baseball to have trust issues, lest they get tricked into mistaking flukes for real things and vice versa.
It would thus be a blatant act of overconfidence to try to determine which is which this early in the 2023 season. In which case, well, so be it.
Whether it's a good idea or not, the idea here is to play a game of "Fluke or For Real?" with the most surprising performances of the '23 campaign to date. These include four hitters and four pitchers who are either blowing away or falling short of expectations, as well as two teams that have been much better than anyone could have anticipated.
Please note that we won't be covering the Tampa Bay Rays and slow-starting clubs such as the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros. We've already done so elsewhere.
OF James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
1 of 10
Age: 25
2023 Stats: 15 G, 53 PA, 3 HR, 2 SB, .279 AVG, .415 OBP, .628 SLG
If WAR could talk, right now it would be saying: "With all respect to Jordan Walker, Garrett Mitchell and Logan O'Hoppe, James Outman is the best rookie hitter in MLB."
That he's indeed at the top of the charts for Baseball Reference is none too shabby for a guy who wasn't even a top-100 prospect coming into the season. It sure looks like a case of the Dodgers' player development machine striking again.
Further, a lot of what's under the hood for Outman looks pretty good. The zone discipline and contact quality are there, and the left-handed swinger is even 2-for-5 with four walks and only one strikeout against left-handed pitchers.
There are, of course, caveats. There always are. In Outman's case, the big one is a whiff rate that places in the 3rd percentile. Hidden within that are a low rate of contact within the strike zone and a 66.7 swing-and-miss rate on breaking balls.
Mind you, this is not to suggest Outman is some kind of imposter. But unless he patches these things up, even his good tools will only be able to elevate him so high.
Verdict: Fluke
2B Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
2 of 10
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 15 G, 58 PA, 2 HR, 5 SB, .283 AVG, .431 OBP, .500 SLG
Yeah, yeah. Gleyber Torres has been a good player in the past, but he's a whole different kind of good so far in 2023.
Whereas he was never known for patience before, now he's tied for third in the American League with 12 walks and that .431 on-base percentage puts him ahead of even Yordan Álvarez. You'd never know that Torres came into '23 with a .331 OBP for his career.
In a situation like this, you'd expect to see a dramatic improvement in swing decisions. Say, more swings inside the zone and fewer swings outside of it.
Weirdly, this isn't the case. Torres in-zone swing rate is down from 2022, while his out-of-zone swing rate is a more or less standard 29.2 percent. It's therefore easiest to trace his walks back to an unusually low rate of pitches in the zone, as well as some shoddy umpiring.
But even if healthy skepticism is warranted on Torres' walks, there's otherwise lots to like about how often and how well he's making contact. And those five stolen bases sure aren't a fluke, as Torres isn't the only Yankee benefiting from the club's ingenious technique.
Verdict: Fluke
3B Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays
3 of 10
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 14 G, 60 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .453 AVG, .517 OBP, .774 SLG
Luis Arraez may be the guy with the .511 batting average, but Matt Chapman has the better claim to throne of "Best Hitter of 2023."
Beyond leading the American League in average and OBP, he leads all qualified hitters with a 252 OPS+. As he had previously peaked with a 137 OPS+, he was never even close to this dominant before 2023.
This is where you might be expecting rain on the proverbial parade, but why would we do that? Chapman is legitimately annihilating the ball, as all his key batted ball metrics are at or near the 100th percentile.
This is more like the guy Chapman was in his breakout years with the Oakland Athletics in 2018 and 2019. As to what has prompted his return in 2023, we have two working theories: it's a salary drive for his upcoming free agency and it's possible that he's finally fully recovered from the hip surgery he had in 2020.
As to how Chapman is only in the 3rd percentile for Outs Above Average, chances are that won't last. This is, after all, a three-time Gold Glove winner who's only made one error so far in 2023.
Verdict: For Real
SS Javier Báez, Detroit Tigers
4 of 10
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 14 G, 55 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, .184 AVG, .259 OBP, .245 SLG
Javier Báez's first year with the Tigers in 2022 was a rough one, but at least he was still good for the occasional extra-base hit in racking up 27 doubles, four triples and 17 home runs.
He has just three of those in 2023. And one of them was a double that probably should have been a triple, and it was promptly followed by him making a dumb out that got him benched.
The good news ought to be that Báez is doing some crucial things better than usual. His walk rate is in the 54th percentile, while his strikeout rate is in the 71st. Those things were in the 8th and 26th percentiles in 2022 respectively.
But while better at-bats lead to better contact in theory, that's not the case with Báez right now. His exit velocity (87.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (33.3 percent) are both below where they were in 2022, which in itself was a step back in both departments.
"My mind is everywhere right now," said Báez after Thursday's game against the Blue Jays. One sympathizes, but one also sees a guy whose trendline is pointing down in a way that may be irreversible.
Verdict: For Real
LHP Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
5 of 10
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 3 GS, 18.2 IP, 13 H (2 HR), 11 K, 5 BB, 0.96 ERA
Kyle Freeland just might be the best pitcher in baseball? Nah. There's no "might be" about it. He simply is, according to his league-leading 1.4 rWAR.
The Denver native had been a rising star once upon a time, earning Rookie of the Year votes in 2017 and then Cy Young votes in 2018. He's had ups and downs since then, but this hot start is coming on the heels of a strong turn in the World Baseball Classic.
If this alone isn't reason enough to think the Freeland-aissance is the real deal, he's also had the right idea to basically scrap his four-seamer and go all-in on a sinker and slider that are frankly better pitches.
But now for the bad stuff, starting with how Freeland's average fastball is below 89 mph. His average exit velocity is also slightly up from 2022, which is a looming problem given that only 33.3 percent of his batted balls have gone on the ground.
And then there's the key number of 100, which is the percent of baserunners that Freeland has left stranded. It's an unsustainable number in the best of times, and that much more so when a guy isn't overpowering hitters.
Verdict: Fluke
RHP Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
6 of 10
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 3 GS, 19.0 IP, 9 H (3 HR), 26 K, 3 BB, 2.84 ERA
Granted, it's not like Joe Ryan wasn't a strikeout pitcher before. If striking out at least one batter per inning is the bar for entry, then he cleared in each of his first two seasons.
Still, what he's doing now is next-level stuff. Those 26 strikeouts tie him with teammate Pablo López for fourth among all pitchers (there's a three-way tie for first) and he's the only pitcher with two games of at least 10 strikeouts.
It helps that Ryan has increased the velocity on his average fastball, and also that he has two new pitches that opposing hitters are thus far 0-for-21 against. One's a sweeper. The other is a split-change. Both are filthy.
Between how well those two pitches are working and how his fastball is responsible for more whiffs than any other, Ryan's elevated strikeout rate passes the smell test. To wit, his whiff rate is in the 79th percentile after landing in the 52nd last year.
Is he going to keep striking out roughly a dozen batters per nine innings? Probably not. But even if he doesn't, he should blow away the 151 strikeouts he racked up last year.
Verdict: For Real
LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
7 of 10
Age: 25
2023 Stats: 3 GS, 17.0 IP, 18 H (1 HR), 27 K, 6 BB, 2.12 ERA
There are three co-leaders for the early lead in strikeouts, two of whom are Jacob deGrom and Spencer Strider. Never has the phrase "that tracks" been more appropriate.
And then there's Nick Lodolo. Perhaps not all that surprising given he punched out 29.7 percent of the batters he faced as a rookie last season, but the step up from there to the 36 percent where he resides in 2023 is still significant.
In any case, you probably just want to see highlights of his curveball, which has been responsible for more whiffs than any other pitch so far. In which case, well, here you go:
That's a pitch Lodolo can make a living on, alright. The only other lefty whose curve breaks that much horizontally is Cole Irvin's, and his doesn't come in at an average of 79.3 mph.
As to other velocity-related matters, Lodolo's fastball is coming in about 1 mph slower than in 2022, but with seemingly better purpose. He's been much more effective working the edges of the zone with it, thus hinting that his command is catching up with his stuff.
Verdict: For Real
LHP Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
8 of 10
Age: 34
2023 Stats: 3 GS, 12.0 IP, 18 H (5 HR), 19 K, 7 BB, 11.25 ERA
Chris Sale is in a bad place. That 11.25 ERA is the worst he's ever done in a three-start stretch at any point in his 13-year career.
Per those seven walks, the seven-time All-Star has clearly had a hard time finding the strike zone. He's also been hit hard, with batted balls off him averaging 91.2 mph.
His fastballs, especially, have taken the brunt of the punishment. Hitters are batting .500 and slugging 1.038 against his four-seamer and sinker, rendering them with the worst run value of any fastball collection in the bigs.
On the bright side, Sale's whiff and strikeout rates are safely above average. And while his fastball velocity isn't at peak levels, an average of 93.2 mph and a high of 97.2 mph are respectable figures. He's even missing bats in the zone with his heaters at a rate comparable to his excellent 2018 season.
Could it be that Sale's big problem is not stuff, but location? That seems like the case in the abstract, and you can see it in reality here, here and here. It's as if he's barely pitched in three years and deserves some patience while he gets comfortable in his delivery again.
Verdict: Fluke
Milwaukee Brewers
9 of 10
Record: 10-5
Run Differential: Plus-27
The Brewers only ended up winning 86 games in 2022, including just 29 after the unforced error that was the trade that sent Josh Hader out of town. Well, now look at them.
They're a fun bunch, with a pitching staff that has the National League's best ERA at 3.20 and an offense that's a delightful mix of established stars (Willy Adames), up-and-comers (Garrett Mitchell and William Contreras) and one major reclamation project (Brian Anderson).
The pitching, at least, is legit. Assuming Brandon Woodruff's shoulder inflammation clears up as soon as expected, he and Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta are a proper ace trio. And the bullpen's 2.36 ERA is no joke. There are some nasty arms in there.
But now for two words on the offense: not sold. Mitchell and Anderson are already cooling off, and the same holds true for the unit as a whole:
- First 7 G: .838 OPS, 6.0 R/G
- Last 8 G: .747 OPS, 4.2 R/G
Given what the Brewers brought to play with in 2023, this seems like a regression to their true offensive quality. And unless we're wrong about that, this probably isn't a better team than the one that missed the playoffs in 2022.
Verdict: Fluke
Minnesota Twins
10 of 10
Record: 10-5
Run Differential: Plus-20
The Twins, meanwhile, haven't really gotten their offense going yet. They only rank 12th in the American League in both OPS and runs.
That the team nonetheless has that record and that run differential hints at what it does well: prevent runs.
The Twins rank ahead of even the previously undefeated Tampa Bay Rays in ERA at 2.62. Sonny Gray has also joined Ryan and López in getting off to hot starts, and the starting staff as a collective boasts the lowest contact rate in the majors.
And that's just the starters. Minnesota's relievers might be the best-kept secret in the entire league. They have a 2.76 ERA and the quality of their stuff rates just beneath that of the Houston Astros among the best there is.
Otherwise, it's just a matter of time before the aforementioned offense gets going, presumably by way of more production from Carlos Correa and Joey Gallo and Jorge Polanco when they come off the injured list. In the meantime, it helps that the batsmen are doing so well in the field that the Twins have the league's most efficient defense.
Verdict: For Real
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
