Panic Meter on the Astros, Phillies and MLB's Slow Starters to 2023 Season
The good news for Major League Baseball teams who aren't where they want to be right now is that the 2023 season is less than 10 percent finished. Their ultimate fates will be decided in the other 90-odd percent of the year.
And yet, it's never too early to break out the ol' "Panic Meter."
We've put the meter to eight clubs who aren't even rising to the level of .500 play after beginning the season with playoff aspirations. We've considered what is and isn't going wrong and whether things stand to get better or worse, and concluded by assigning them one of three readings on the panic meter: low, medium or high.
We'll proceed in ascending order of teams' records, with run differential serving as a tiebreaker.
Philadelphia Phillies
1 of 8
Record: 4-9
Run Differential: Minus-19
Things have gotten better for the Phillies since they opened with four straight losses, yet they haven't climbed out of that hole so much as gotten started on clawing at the walls.
Where the Phillies are struggling most isn't subtle. It's capital-R, capital-P Run Prevention. Their pitchers rank last in the National League with a 5.38 ERA, while their defense is third from the bottom in efficiency.
More specific things to worry about include velocity drops and corresponding effectiveness dips on the parts of ace Aaron Nola and closer Craig Kimbrel. And on the offensive side, Darick Hall's thumb injury only further diminished a lineup that was already missing Bryce Harper (Tommy John surgery) and Rhys Hoskins (ACL tear).
And yet, the defending National League champs have also simply been unlucky.
It doesn't show in their run differential, but it does in how they're underperforming their expected metrics on defense. And offensively, for a team to rank fifth in its league in OPS yet only 12th in runs per game is what they call "unsustainable."
As such, the Phillies may well back on track even before their offense regains Hall and Harper and their pitching regains Ranger Suárez from a forearm injury. Top prospect Andrew Painter, who's recovering from a UCL sprain, should also debut at some point.
Panic Meter: Medium
Chicago White Sox
2 of 8
Record: 5-8
Run Differential: Minus-17
This year was supposed to be a reset for the White Sox after they experienced all sorts of frustration amid an 81-81 season in 2022. But so far it's, uh, not that.
Knowing how badly the injury bug bit them last season, it's particularly disconcerting that the White Sox are already having injury issues again. Most notably, Tim Anderson figures to miss the next two-to-four weeks with a sprained knee.
Not that there's ever a good time for injuries, but this is a bad one. Just between now and the end of April, the White Sox have to go through the Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays. All five were contenders in 2022 and the Rays are...[double checks]...yup, still undefeated.
It ought to be a plus that the White Sox are somewhat healthy on the mound, but that doesn't excuse the club's 5.79 ERA. Their hurlers really have been hit that hard, with Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech getting it especially bad to the tune of a 6.70 ERA.
Factor in that the White Sox have also had the least efficient defense in the American League so far, and what you get is a genuinely worrying picture.
Panic Meter: High
St. Louis Cardinals
3 of 8
Record: 5-8
Run Differential: Minus-8
It's fair to have concerns about the Cardinals pitching, and not just because de facto ace Miles Mikolas has an ERA up over 10.00 (10.05, to be exact) after three outings.
To wit, Steven Matz has continued to be Very Not Good in the second season of his four-year, $44 million deal and there's every reason to be bearish on Jack Flaherty's comeback. Despite his 1.76 ERA through three starts, he's walked more batters than he's struck out and his velocity is well below its peak levels.
Still, maybe the Cardinals can simply hit and defend their way out of their early funk?
Yeah, sounds reasonable. Especially the hitting part, ranking third in the National League in OPS yet ninth in runs per game is another one of those unsustainable things. And that much more so in context of this bit: St. Louis' offense has produced the most hard-hit balls of any in MLB.
Otherwise, we're just not buying that the Cardinals will rank 29th in defensive efficiency all year long. This is the same team that ranked fourth in MLB in both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average last season. It'll come around.
Panic Meter: Low
Boston Red Sox
4 of 8
Record: 5-8
Run Differential: Minus-2
Look, we'll level with you. As much as we tried to find reasons to be bullish on the Red Sox's chances of snapping out of their early troubles, nothing really stood out.
What did stand out is that the Red Sox's run prevention is the stuff of nightmares. Among all MLB teams, they've alllowed the most hard-hit balls and are also second with the 22 home runs they've served up. They've also permitted an AL-high 17 stolen bases and are already dead-last in Defensive Runs Saved.
In other words, it's not just Chris Sale and his 11.25 ERA. Even the pending returns of hurlers Brayan Bello and James Paxton will be like putting a piece of duct tape on a ruptured sewage pipeline.
The offense, meanwhile, looks about as hit-or-miss around star slugger Rafael Devers as anyone might have anticipated. And unless Adam Duvall makes a swift recovery from the broken wrist he sustained on Sunday, it figures to be more miss than hit going forward.
Does it get worse? It gets worse. Or, more accurately, more difficult. Even though the balanced schedule means fewer games against tough AL East opponents for the Red Sox, theirs is still the most difficult remaining schedule of them all.
Panic Meter: High
Seattle Mariners
5 of 8
Record: 5-8
Run Differential: Minus-2
The Mariners were 10 games under .500 with a minus-19 run differential as late as June 19, 2022, so being three games under .500 with a minus-2 run differential now can't be that scary, right?
Granted, things could definitely be better on the pitching side. That's where the Mariners have a non-terrible 3.84 ERA, sure, but also where they're missing $115 million starter Robbie Ray (flexor strain) and ace reliever Andrés Muñoz (deltoid strain) with injuries.
It'll nonetheless do for a positive that neither is expected to be out for very long. Ray should be back sometime in May, while Muñoz might be on the mound even before then.
What the Mariners need in the meantime is for an offense that ranks 11th in the AL in OPS and 10 in scoring to find its footing. To this end, it's a huge plus that Jarred Kelenic is making good on his spring breakthrough and, call it a hunch, but Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández probably won't have an aggregate .721 OPS for long.
The Mariners also picked a relatively good time to hit the skids. In large part because the Houston Astros have also struggled early, nobody has gotten off to a big lead in the AL West.
Panic Meter: Low
San Francisco Giants
6 of 8
Record: 5-7
Run Differential: Minus-3
There's at least one reason not to worry about the Giants, and it's that they're already back to hitting home runs like they did in 2021.
That was the year they led the National League with 241 long balls en route to a 107-win season, and now here they are in 2023 just three shy of the NL lead with 21. And it's been a democratic affair, with an NL-high eight players pitching in at least two so far.
There may yet be more room for improvement for the Giants on the power front. They have yet to field a starting nine with both Michael Conforto (calf tightness) and Mitch Haniger (oblique strain) in it, which should happen before the end of April.
As for the pitching, well, that's where things get trickier. While staff ace Logan Webb isn't going to run an inflated .366 batting average on balls in play forever, the general signs suggest that the staff as a whole has overachieved. Considering the Giants have just a 4.71 ERA anyway, that's not a great omen.
It's also hard to see how things are going to stabilize, much less get better. The club's injured list doesn't have much in the way of pitching reinforcements, and top prospect Kyle Harrison has a 13.50 ERA at Triple-A.
Panic Meter: Medium
Miami Marlins
7 of 8
Record: 6-7
Run Differential: Minus-26
That's a bad-looking run differential the Marlins have there, but it's largely informed by a loss the likes of which probably won't happen again.
On Monday, the Marlins fell 15-3 to the Phillies in a game in which reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara was rocked for nine runs in four innings. It's the kind of thing that seems fluky on its face, and that much more so in context of how only four of the 10 hits off the right-hander were on hard-hit balls.
Rather, the real question marks hovering over Miami's pitching staff concern other matters.
Namely, Johnny Cueto's biceps injury, Edward Cabrera's disastrous control and Trevor Rogers' velocity dip. When put together, the club's 5.09 ERA begins to make sense and doubts start to creep in about whether run prevention will be this team's strength after all.
Which is a problem, because the Marlins are already tracking toward finishing last in the NL in scoring per game for a second year in a row. They especially need a lot more from Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jean Segura and Avisaíl García and, alas, only Chisholm is deserving of optimism at this stage of their respective careers.
Panic Meter: High
Houston Astros
8 of 8
Record: 6-7
Run Differential: Plus-13
If you're going to be under .500, it might as well be with the league's eighth-best run differential.
This is not to say the Astros have nothing to worry about, of course. Despite Kyle Tucker's and Yordan Álvarez's best efforts, the offense is slugging below the AL average at just .392. Jose Altuve (broken thumb) is clearly missed, while Alex Bregman, José Abreu and Jeremy Peña have been quiet to the tune of a composite .671 OPS.
Meanwhile on the mound, Cristian Javier's and Ryan Pressly's early struggles have come in tandem with diminished velocity. That also holds true of Luis Garcia, though one wonders if his 7.00 ERA is just as much due to him having to adjust to life after his rock-the-baby motion.
And yet, these pitching concerns would loom larger if the Astros weren't seeing guys like José Urquidy, Hunter Brown and Bryan Abreu pick up the slack. That's the nice thing about having as much depth as the Astros do, and they'll have more when Lance McCullers Jr. (arm strain) returns off the injured list.
Speaking of, Altuve and Michael Brantley (shoulder surgery) will rejoin the offense in the coming months. Provided Bregman, Abreu and Peña warm up before then, the defending World Series champs will be fine.
Panic Meter: Low
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
