Prospects for Packers to Avoid in 2023 NFL Draft

In some ways, the 2023 NFL draft is the most important one for the Green Bay Packers in a long time. With the team set to move on from the Aaron Rodgers era, Brian Gutekunst and the front office will be charged with building a contender around quarterback Jordan Love.

As a franchise, the Packers have been fortunate to transition from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another from the Brett Favre era to Aaron Rodgers.

Green Bay wound up winning Super Bowls with each. The ability to draft well and surround those quarterbacks with talent and the foundation of a strong defense were key to those Super Bowl runs.

Getting Love to that level and fielding another NFC North juggernaut is going to be a process.

That means not only identifying good fits in the draft moving forward, but also identifying which prospects to avoid.

Based on a risky draft profile or poor fit, they should steer clear of these three prospects come draft time.

TE Luke Musgrave, Oregon State

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CORVALLIS, OR - NOVEMBER 20: Oregon State Beavers TE Luke Musgrave (88) turns up field after a making a catch during a PAC-12 conference football game between the Arizona State Sun Devils and Oregon State Beavers on November 20, 2021 at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon. (Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

There's a lot to like about the Packers taking a tight end with one of their first two picks. This tight end class is loaded with talent. There are five tight ends in the top 50 of Bleacher Report's latest big board.

Robert Tonyan departed in free agency and never really lived up to his breakout 2020 campaign. After gaining more than 500 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns two years ago, he never got close to that production again.

Almost any of those tight ends who rank in the top 50 would be a nice addition for Green Bay, but Luke Musgrave should be avoided.

The 6'6", 253-pound receiving weapon is a bit thin for a traditional in-line tight end. However, he does have legitimate speed for the position and is a receiving threat down the seam.

There are reasons for concerns, though. Musgrave is not physical as a route runner and is just a fine blocker. Perhaps of even more concern is that he only played two games in 2022 because of a knee injury that ended his season.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Network noted that Musgrave did clear his medical check at the combine, so there isn't an immediate concern, but injuries derailed Tonyan, and they could come back to bite Musgrave as well.

Ultimately, there are too many good options for the Packers to take the chance on Musgrave. If they decide to go with a tight end in the first, then Michael Mayer or Darnell Washington should be the preferred targets.

If it's later, then Tucker Kraft or Sam LaPorta should be in consideration.

WR Quentin Johnston, TCU

Chris Coduto/Getty Images

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 31: Wide receiver Quentin Johnston #1 of the TCU Horned Frogs is tackled by defensive back Rod Moore #19 of the Michigan Wolverines during the second half of the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium on December 31, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. The Horned Frogs defeated the Wolverines 51-45. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Quentin Johnston could well be a good player. He comes in as the No. 11 overall prospect on the Bleacher Report big board and had a great career at TCU.

There's just too much overlap between him and Christian Watson to get too excited about this potential pick for the Packers.

Like Watson, Johnston has a combination of size and speed that is tantalizing. At 6'3", 208 pounds with a 4.49 40-yard dash and 40.5" vertical, he has the speed and explosiveness to be a downfield threat.

The problem is that his route-running isn't very nuanced and he has struggled with drops. According to PFF, he dropped 10.2 percent of the catchable balls thrown his way in college.

That sounds a lot like Watson coming out of North Dakota State. He was a touch faster and a little less refined, but they are near carbon copies of one another as prospects and players.

Instead, the Packers should have their sights set on Jaxon Smith-Njigba if they want a first-round receiver.

Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers are also other options who would give the Packers more versatility with their receiving corps. All three are more agile than Johnston and could provide the intermediate area threat they don't necessarily have right now.

TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah

Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

LAS VEGAS, NV - DECEMBER 02: Utah Utes tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) runs a route during the Pac-12 Championship football game between Utah Utes and USC Trojans on December 2, 2022 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Observant readers may have noticed another tight end from the top 50 missing from Green Bay's alternatives to Luke Musgrave.

That would be Dalton Kincaid.

It isn't that Kincaid isn't a good player. He is. Much like Musgrave, he's going to make for a good receiving option on some team's passing attack.

But he's not a good fit on the Green Bay roster. Kincaid is going to be a move tight end who doesn't have the bulk or blocking prowess to line up as a traditional in-line tight end or be an asset in the run game.

The Packers already have a move tight end who can actually help with his blocking in Josiah Deguara. The 6'2", 238-pounder should still figure into the offense next season if they draft a tight end with one of their first two picks.

At 6'4", 246 pounds, Kincaid just doesn't make sense like Michael Mayer or Darnell Washington would. Mayer is the best tight end in the loaded class with the ability to block and be a receiving weapon, while Washington is essentially a third tackle on the field.

They should be the only tight ends the Packers consider in the first round.