Ranking the Top 5 Storylines for the NBA Season's Final Week
Just seven days remain in the 2022-23 regular season, and after nearly seven months of basketball and its #Discourse, you might think there'd be very little left unsettled.
Except, you'd be wrong.
This year's closing kick is teeming with unresolved matters. From the play-in and playoff races to individual awards and honors, both sweeping parity and glorious chaos are reigning supreme.
Contrary to other seasons, many of which pre-date the play-in era, there is no shortage of important main themes and subplots to watch. To be honest, there's almost too much to watch, track, distill and rationalize. It can be overwhelming.
Fortunately, there's a ranking system for this high-stakes paralysis. It's this one.
Storylines will appear in order of increasing unpredictability, wide-openness and just good ol' general anarchy. These aren't the only topics worth tuning in for; not even close. They are, however, the most impactful of the yet-to-be-determined bunch.
5. Eastern Conference Play-In Race
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Most of the drama is already stripped from the Eastern Conference play-in race. The Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards are both mathematically alive, but based on the nightly rotations they're deploying, neither seems particularly interested in reaching the postseason preamble.
Still, five teams are jockeying for seeds six through 10. And the battles are compelling.
Sixth place and the chance to avoid the play-in tournament is currently occupied by the Brooklyn Nets. The Miami Heat are close enough to take it. Neither squad will drop lower seventh, but No. 6 finish (mostly likely) means teeing off against the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round rather than the Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks (assuming you survive the play-in). That's a real difference.
Seeds eight, nine and 10 will go to the Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors, albeit not necessarily in that order. Grabbing eighth place is appealing for all of them. It gives you two opportunities to crack the real postseason bracket.
Whether Atlanta, Chicago or Toronto are actually dangerous beyond the play-in is a separate matter. The Bulls were super frisky for a minute after signing Patrick Beverley, and the Hawks offense can go thermonuclear. But the Raptors are probably the scariest of the trio. They have a top-10 defense and net rating since the trade deadline.
How will this bottom-of-the-bracket brouhaha play out? We'll know in a few days—with plenty of answers coming as soon as Tuesday, when Atlanta and Chicago square off against one another.
4. Playoff-Seed Tanking Shenanigans
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Tanking for a lower playoff seed and a theoretically comfier matchup is frowned upon by the basketball deities, multiple ethereal sources confirm to Bleacher Report. That doesn't always stop it from happening. Some teams are not above trying to dictate fate and dismissing karma.
Bracket high jinks are most likely in the middle of the Western Conference. The No. 3 Sacramento Kings are almost universally considered a steppingstone, even though they have the league's best offense and a chance to rack up 50 wins. This could result in one of the Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers or Phoenix Suns Hinkie-ing their way to (or attempting to hold firm in) sixth place.
The Suns have some ground to reverse, complicating any tomfoolery. But they face the Clippers to close out the regular season on Apr. 9. That game could be interesting—or mega ugly—depending on what the standings look like.
Elsewhere, the Denver Nuggets could try to forfeit first place and the prospect of a second-round date with the Suns (currently in fifth). Would the second-place Memphis Grizzlies counter by dipping on the season a little early?
Eleventh-hour silliness isn't as tantalizing in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics could try tanking down to third place and set up a first-round matchup with the star-less Nets. Good luck with that. The Sixers have the league's toughest schedule and aren't about to surrender that chance themselves. Boston is better off—and closer to—catching Milwaukee for first if it wants to simplify its bracket.
3. The Western Conference Play-In Race
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Clarity is gradually permeating the Western Conference play-in fracas.
Nobody is realistically inching inside the top six anymore. The Warriors, Clippers and Suns are far enough ahead to declare that race over. The Portland Trail Blazers, meanwhile, bowed out from the top-10 battle forever ago—first by involuntarily sucking, then by deliberately sucking even harder.
After a weeks-long dalliance with faux-tanking, the Utah Jazz are finally married to it. Lauri Markkanen's left-hand injury ensures they'll finish below 10th—unless they stumble into another accidentally-on-purpose winning streak.
That leaves five teams competing for sixth through 10th: The Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder.
OKC has the hardest schedule of the gaggle and faces both Golden State and Memphis. The Thunder do, however, have a tilt versus the not-actively-trying-to-win Jazz.
So do the Lakers—two of them, actually. Matchups versus the Clippers and Suns aren't ideal, but one or both might be tanking their way to a three-six dance in the first round.
Dallas is a mess—a veritable "clusterf**k." But it finishes the season against San Antonio.
Minnesota (Naz Reid) and New Orleans (Zion Williamson, Jose Alvarado) are missing key players. They also close the season against one another. The Pelicans' remaining docket is a little less favorable, with (home) showdowns against the Kings, Grizzlies and Knicks.
Predict how this ends at the peril of your own sanity.
(My two cents: The Lakers (seventh), Timberwolves (eighth), Pelicans (ninth) and Thunder (10th) get in. Sorry, Dallas).
2. Year-End Awards Madness
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Sooooo many year-end awards remain up for grabs.
Coach of the Year is locked up by Mike Brown. Congrats to him. That is the extent of the certainty.
Sixth Man of the Year always has plenty of options. Immanuel Quickley has seemingly pulled ahead. Malcolm Brogdon would still like a word. Malik Monk, too.
Most Improved Player is considered Lauri Markkanen's to lose. What if he loses it? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone from burgeoning star to a full-fledged MVP-caliber. Tyrese Haliburton's push will be short-circuited by total availability. Desmond Bane's might, as well. Quickley, Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges won't have that problem.
Rookie of the Year was all sewn up—until it wasn't. Jalen Williams went kaboom in Oklahoma City earlier than most think. And he shoulders more offensive responsibility than many realize. Can that offset the higher degrees of difficulty and volume attached to Paolo Banchero's entire body of work?
Picking Defensive Player of the Year is a teeth-gnashing proposition. Should Jaren Jackson Jr.'s total court time be held against him? Is Brook Lopez the real favorite? Will he and Giannis Antetokounmpo cannibalize consideration from one another? Did Miami's defensive downturn cost Bam Adebayo?
Why in the bleepity-bleeping-bleep isn't Evan Mobley receiving more DPOY shine?
And, oh, yeah: M-V-P.
Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokić are neck-and-neck according to ESPN's last straw poll. I'm sure #TheDiscourse over this final stretch will be—'command + sarcasm font'—unequivocally productive, not at all toxic or disingenuous and avoid inexplicably writing off Antetokounmpo.
1. The All-NBA Bloodbath
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All-NBA parameters will change next season. Positions are getting junked, and players need to appear in at least 65 games to retain eligibility. That might make this process easier. It is certainly good news for guards.
In the meantime, the All-NBA selection process remains a bloodbath.
Winnowing down the list of guards to six verges on impossible: Devin Booker, Jalen Brunson, Stephen Curry, Luka Dončić, Anthony Edwards, De'Aaron Fox, Darius Garland, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton, James Harden, Zach LaVine, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Ja Morant and Trae Young all have cases. I'm not even including Jaylen Brown and Paul George, who will both, thankfully, be eligible at forward.
SGA and Dončić are locks for two spots. I'd bet on Steph and Fox snagging two more. That leaves two more spaces for the rest. Yuh-ikes.
Forward deliberations are less brain-bending if you care about total minutes played. That doesn't make it easy. Brown, George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Lauri Markkanen, Julius Randle, Pascal Siakam and Jayson Tatum all exist.
Giannis, Butler and Tatum are locks. But here's a curveball for the other four slots: Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Domantas Sabonis are eligible at forward AND center.
Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokić have two of three slots wrapped up. Will voters shoehorn one or more of the other options in at forward?
I hate this. And love it. And my head hurts. This final week is going to be bonkers.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Saturday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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