Expert Picks for the 2023 Men's NCAA Championship Game

The national championship for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament is set, and the fourth-seeded Connecticut Huskies will take on the No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs for a shot at college basketball glory.

For only the second time in March Madness history, the championship will feature two teams seeded no higher than fourth. The only previous time came in 2014 when No. 7 UConn defeated No. 8 Kentucky.

Will the Huskies make it 2-for-2?

Or will San Diego State put an exclamation point on its spectacular March, bringing home the program's first-ever championship?

Bleacher Report's expert crew of David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and Joel Reuter each shared their prediction for Monday's game. Before that, though, we have viewing and betting information along with a recap of how SDSU and UConn have navigated the tourney.

Game Information

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 01: Jordan Hawkins #24 of the Connecticut Huskies celebrates with teammates during the second half against the Miami Hurricanes during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Final Four semifinal game at NRG Stadium on April 01, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

When: Monday, April 3

Time: 9:20 p.m. ET

Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas

TV: CBS

Stream: March Madness Live

Spread (via DraftKings): UConn -7.5

Moneyline: UConn -350 (bet $350 to win $100); San Diego State +290 (bet $100 to win $290)

Total: Over/Under 132

How San Diego State Got Here

Mike Lawrie/Getty Images

HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 01: Lamont Butler #5 of the San Diego State Aztecs makes a basket as the clock expires to defeat the Florida Atlantic Owls 72-71 during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Final Four semifinal game at NRG Stadium on April 01, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)

Rather dramatically, you could say.

San Diego State held off Charleston 63-57 in the opening round before cruising past Furman 75-52. Then, the Aztecs pulled off an upset of top-seeded Alabama 71-64 in the Sweet 16.

Creighton awaited in the Elite Eight, and a low-scoring game included leads no higher than eight points. SDSU, though, survived the nerve-wracking affair. Darrion Trammell drew a foul with 1.2 seconds to play, hitting one free throw to break a deadlock for the Aztecs' 57-56 win.

And that was merely the appetizer.

Saturday night, SDSU clawed out of a 14-point hole against FAU. Lamont Butler drilled a buzzer-beating jumper to cap the comeback, sealing a thrilling 72-71 victory and sending the Aztecs to the championship.

San Diego State's first four opponents shot a combined 17.0 percent from three-point range. FAU shot 40.9 percent, but effective perimeter defense has been a critical piece of the Aztecs' run.

How UConn Got Here

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Adama Sanogo

How about one word again: Emphatically.

So far, Connecticut has flat-out dominated the 2023 tournament. The team's smallest margin of victory—once more for emphasis, the smallest—has been a staggering 13 points.

On the opening weekend, the Huskies rolled Iona 87-63 and cruised past Saint Mary's 70-55. They steamrolled Arkansas 88-65 and decimated Gonzaga 82-54 to reach the Final Four, and the national semifinal ended with UConn calmly burning the clock for a 72-59 triumph.

Powerful forward Adama Sanogo has starred along the way, providing 20.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game.

Plus, the Huskies have buried at least nine triples in all five victories. Jordan Hawkins is responsible for 19 of their 50 trifectas, hitting three from deep in Saturday's win over Miami.

Connecticut, which last won a national title in 2014, is seeking the program's fifth championship.

Predictions

Tyler Schank/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 01: Donovan Clingan #32 of the Connecticut Huskies celebrates on the sidelines after defeating the Miami (Fl) Hurricanes during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Final Four semifinal game at NRG Stadium on April 01, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tyler Schank/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

While the blueprint for San Diego State is anything but simple, the path is straightforward: Defense and rebounding.

No reasonable person would argue that SDSU is a superior team on the scoring end. Whether you prefer basic stats or metrics, that discussion simply does not favor the Aztecs.

UConn is third in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, averages a shade under 80 points and grabs its own misses at the second-best rate in the country. To take down the Huskies, SDSU cannot afford to watch Sanogo or Donovan Clingan, among others, rule the glass.

The promising note for the Aztecs is they've won the rebounding battle in four NCAA tournament games. The problem is Alabama ripped down 18 offensive boards—something UConn absolutely can do—and the Huskies are far more efficient from the perimeter.

In a one-game sample, anything can happen. We've seen it again and again throughout March Madness in 2023.

But there is a very clear justification for UConn entering the championship as a massive favorite, and B/R's panel unanimously agrees the Huskies will cut down the nets Monday night in Houston.

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Predictions

David Kenyon: UConn

Kerry Miller: UConn

Joel Reuter: UConn

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