Predicting Which High Seeds in 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Won't Reach 2024 Big Dance
Gonzaga, Kansas and Michigan State have made it look easy to maintain dominance in men's college basketball year after year, each playing in at least 24 consecutive NCAA tournaments.
But it's not easy. And Gonzaga's streak might be in jeopardy next year.
Leaders graduate. Stars declare for the NBA draft. More than 1,200 players are already in the transfer portal. Coaches leave for greener pastures.
Sometimes, we barely recognize anything other than a team's jersey by the time November rolls around.
As a result, many of the top teams from one season end up missing the dance altogether the following March.
Of the 28 teams that earned a No. 7 seed or better in the 2022 dance, seven missed the cut this year. And that was improvement from the previous year, when nine of the top 28 teams in the 2021 NCAA tournament were not invited back in 2022.
Looking at that same pool of 28 candidates from this year's field, it's not hard to pinpoint a few teams unlikely to participate in the 2024 NCAA tournament.
Needless to say, there are plenty of unknowns still in play. There are still a few big-name recruits available, most notably Bronny James. Many NBA draft decisions are yet to be made. Of the myriad of players who have entered the portal, more than 1,000 are still there for the taking. And it's likely just a matter of time before a few hundred more players join that list of "free agents."
But we can still make some way-too-early educated guesses at which teams are most likely to experience a bit of rebuilding.
Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
Also considered: Arizona, Creighton, Iowa State, Northwestern
Gonzaga Bulldogs
1 of 7
2023 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 3
Players Graduating: Rasir Bolton
Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Drew Timme, Julian Strawther, Hunter Sallis
Noteworthy Arrivals: Dusty Stromer (4-star SF)
Julian Strawther has not yet officially declared for the NBA draft, but there's a good chance he'll be a first-round pick.
Though Drew Timme still has a year of eligibility remaining, there were so many "obituaries" written in the past month about his college career that it'd be kind of awkward if he did come back. (However, our official stance as fans of college basketball is: Hoping that he returns for a fifth season.)
And if Gonzaga does lose both of those stars, the streak of 24 consecutive trips to the NCAA tournament may be in serious jeopardy.
Because let's face facts: Timme and Strawther were the entire team this year.
Throw in fifth-year senior Rasir Bolton, and you're talking about a trio that started all 37 games, combining for 46.5 points, 15.6 rebounds and 7.0 assists.
Timme's backup over the past few years, Ben Gregg, could be a breakout star in 2023-24. But he's not Timme 2.0. And even if he were, that doesn't change the fact that this team never figured out its point guard situation—it's not currently adding any new guards to the roster to help figure out that issue next year—and will need to replace its two primary sources for perimeter buckets.
Expectations will still be high, of course. Gonzaga has opened 10 consecutive seasons in the AP Top 20 and remains in the West Coast Conference, where it always feels like the worst-case scenario for this team is a win-or-go-home, coin-flip game against Saint Mary's in the conference championship.
But unless Nolan Hickman makes some gigantic leap this offseason, it's likely going to be one of the most challenging campaigns since head coach Mark Few got his start in Spokane in 1999.
Houston Cougars
2 of 7
2023 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 1
Players Graduating: Reggie Chaney
Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Jarace Walker, Marcus Sasser, Jamal Shead, Tramon Mark
Missing the tournament the year after earning a No. 1 seed is rare, but it does happen. Michigan darn near missed the dance in 2022 after getting a No. 1 in 2021. Xavier did go from a No. 1 in 2018 to the NIT in 2019. We also saw Florida go from a 36-3 No. 1 seed in 2013-14 to a sub-.500 mess the following year.
And those teams didn't need to deal with the drastic uptick in conference strength that comes with transitioning from the AAC to the Big 12.
Were Houston staying in what has been a two-bid league in each of the past three years, we'd trust in head coach Kelvin Sampson for at least 25 wins and yet another single-digit seed in the NCAA tournament.
But going from the eighth-best or ninth-best conference to what was definitively the best conference in each of the past two seasons?
While potentially needing to replace all four of your best players?
In a word: Yikes.
Jarace Walker is surely going to remain in the draft as a projected lottery pick. And after putting his name in both the transfer portal and the NBA draft pool, it's unlikely Tramon Mark will be back in Houston in 2023-24. But we'll see what Jamal Shead and Marcus Sasser decide to do. The former is testing the draft waters, while the latter has yet to publicly make any decision about his future.
If both halves of that backcourt return next season, feel free to retroactively remove the Cougars from this list. Because while Walker is a huge loss, getting to move Ja'Vier Francis (16.6 points, 13.5 rebounds, 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes) into the starting lineup could be a win. And it's not like Houston will need 30 wins to make the tournament next year. Something like 19-13 would probably be enough, and it should be able to get there with Sasser and Shead.
There's a good chance they'll both leave, though, in which case next year might be a rough transitional one for Houston.
Indiana Hoosiers
3 of 7
2023 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 4
Players Graduating: Race Thompson, Xavier Johnson*, Miller Kopp
Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Jordan Geronimo, Tamar Bates, Logan Duncomb
*pursuing a medical-hardship waiver
Simply put: What's left at Indiana?
Nine Hoosiers logged at least 200 minutes of action in 2022-23. Three are out of eligibility. Two are in the transfer portal. One (Jalen Hood-Schifino) officially declared for the NBA draft Friday morning. And while the biggest star (Trayce Jackson-Davis) has yet to officially declare for the draft, he has already been talking about his time at Indiana in the past tense and wasn't even expected to return for 2022-23, let alone 2023-24.
So, they've got Malik Reneau, Trey Galloway...and that's about it.
There is a chance Xavier Johnson will get a medical-hardship waiver to return as a sixth-year senior, which would be big. There has also been talk of North Carolina transfer Caleb Love potentially landing in Bloomington. That would also be big.
But until there's confirmation that either veteran guard is playing for the Hoosiers next season, we kind of have to assume they won't be, which leaves a projected starting five of two true freshmen guards, a MAC transfer, a wing (Galloway) who averaged 9.6 points per 40 minutes this season and a reserve big man (Reneau) who might make the proverbial leap as a sophomore.
Even if we did pencil Johnson and/or Love into the lineup, though, adjusting to life without leading scorers JHS and TJD will be a challenge.
Increasing Reneau's playing time and adding Payton Sparks from Ball State will help fill some of the stat-sheet-stuffing void from Jackson-Davis' departure, but we'll see if Sparks can make anywhere near the impact in the paint in the Big Ten that he was making in the MAC this season.
Indiana just barely made the tournament in head coach Mike Woodson's first season in 2021-22. Could be a similar photo finish next March.
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Kansas State Wildcats
4 of 7
2023 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 3
Players Graduating: Markquis Nowell, Desi Sills, Abayomi Iyiola, Tykei Greene
Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Keyontae Johnson, Ismael Massoud
If Keyontae Johnson wants to play one more season, I believe is eligible to return. He didn't technically redshirt in 2021-22, but he would surely be able to get a medical-hardship waiver for the one minute that he "played" that season when he got an honorary start in Florida's last home game.
Even if Johnson does come back for another season, though, Kansas State has a lot of work to do in order to make up for otherwise losing five of the nine leading scorers from what was a surprise contender this season.
Without question, the toughest part will be replacing Markquis Nowell. The point guard took over the first two weekends of the NCAA tournament, but he was Kansas State's compass long before March Madness. He was critical on both ends of the floor all year long for the Wildcats, making this one of the most entertaining teams to watch.
Suffice it to say, Dai Dai Ames has big shoes to fill as the potential starting point guard as a true freshman. (As the only returning guard who appeared in at least 11 games this season, Cam Carter is the other candidate to run the offense.)
Even if it were just Nowell leaving, Kansas State would be liable to drop back down near the basement of the Big 12. But losing Nowell and four other key rotational pieces is probably too much to overcome.
Then again, we're talking about a team that went 14-17 in 2021-22, lost everyone except for Nowell and Ismael Massoud, brought in a first-year head coach in Jerome Tang and absolutely crushed it in the transfer portal en route to winning 26 games. Maybe Tang and his staff can work similar miracles this offseason. But based on what we currently know about the roster, Kansas State does not appear to be in a good spot to repeat this season's success.
San Diego State Aztecs
5 of 7
2023 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 5
Players Graduating: Matt Bradley, Nathan Mensah, Adam Seiko, Aguek Arop
Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: N/A
Noteworthy Arrivals: N/A
On the one hand, it's pretty disrespectful to say that a team will miss the tournament the year after playing for a national championship—especially a team like San Diego State, which has finished at least five games above .500 in 18 consecutive seasons.
On the other hand, it does happen somewhat regularly.
After battling in the 2007 title game, both Florida and Ohio State missed the tournament in 2008. We also saw 2009 North Carolina, 2012 Kentucky and 2014 UConn win it all before missing the next dance, as well as 2011 Butler and 2022 North Carolina go from "first runner-up" to "watching from home." That's seven out of the last 30 teams to play for a title.
And this is an old San Diego State roster that will have a lot of replacing to do.
Leading scorer Matt Bradley, top rebounder and shot-blocker Nathan Mensah and key reserves Adam Seiko and Aguek Arop have all exhausted their eligibility, representing a ton of key minutes to backfill.
The Aztecs' starting five will still be old next year, though. Seniors Darrion Trammell, Keshad Johnson and Jaedon LeDee all have one year of eligibility remaining. Lamont Butler and Micah Parrish also figure to be back as fourth-year players who will be expected to rank among the team leaders in scoring.
Still, SDSU will go from having "experienced depth" as arguably its biggest strength to the lack of depth being a real concern in 2023-24.
This is a program that has never signed a 5-star recruit and that hasn't inked a 4-star guy since 2015, so the cavalry won't be coming in the form of freshman phenoms. And while head coach Brian Dutcher and Co. figure to hit the transfer portal pretty hard this offseason, we'll see how well those TBD additions fare in their new defense-first system.
TCU Horned Frogs
6 of 7
2023 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 6
Players Graduating: Chuck O'Bannon Jr.
Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Mike Miles Jr., Eddie Lampkin Jr., Shahada Wells
Noteworthy Arrivals: Jameer Nelson Jr. (Delaware), Jace Posey (4-star SG/SF)
We spent much of the season saying TCU might be the best team in the Big 12 if and when it got fully healthy, but that never happened. The Horned Frogs got that stunning 23-point road victory over Kansas in mid-January and were just OK the rest of the year. So, even though we're talking about a 22-win No. 6 seed, missing next year's tournament wouldn't be some colossal fall from grace.
If Damion Baugh and Emanuel Miller both return as fifth-year seniors, TCU isn't losing anywhere near as many players as some of the teams on this list.
But losing Mike Miles Jr. to the draft is a huge blow for head coach Jamie Dixon and Co.
Miles almost went pro last year, and his decision to return for one more season was the biggest reason this team was No. 14 in the preseason AP poll. He more or less was TCU's offense, averaging 17.9 points per game and leading an otherwise poor-shooting roster in true shooting percentage.
This time around, it sounds like he's gone for good. However, the Horned Frogs did already hit a potential home run in the transfer portal in Jameer Nelson Jr. He averaged more than 20 points per game this season at Delaware and could be their main source for buckets in 2023-24.
They're also losing Eddie Lampkin Jr. and Chuck O'Bannon, though, each of whom averaged 21.8 minutes per game while starting more often than not.
Former NBA forward James Posey's son, Jace, might make a big splash as a freshman, but will adding him and Nelson be enough to salvage a team that went 9-12 over its final 21 games this season?
Dixon is no stranger to the transfer portal, though. TCU didn't make any impactful acquisitions last offseason, but it added Baugh, Miller, Micah Peavy and Shahada Wells during the post-2021 offseason. We'll see if he can go back to that well for another major pickup or two.
Virginia Cavaliers
7 of 7
2023 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 4
Players Graduating: Kihei Clark, Jayden Gardner, Ben Vander Plas
Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Kadin Shedrick, Francisco Caffaro, Isaac Traudt
Noteworthy Arrivals: Dante Harris (Georgetown), Elijah Gertrude (4-star SG), Blake Buchanan (4-star C)
After what feels like a decade, Kihei Clark is leaving Virginia. He was the starting point guard when the Cavaliers won the 2019 national championship, and he had been the staple in that lineup ever since.
If Clark were the only piece Virginia was losing, though, the Cavaliers would still be one of the top contenders to win the ACC next season. After all, they do still have Reece Beekman, who is fantastic on defense and put up offensive numbers nearly identical to Clark.
Throw in the presumed return of leading scorer Armaan Franklin, the addition of freshman shooting guard Elijah Gertrude and the addition of Georgetown transfer Dante Harris, who averaged 11.9 points, 4.1 assists and 1.5 steals in 2021-22, and the backcourt should be in good shape.
But what in the world is this frontcourt going to look like in 2023-24?
Both Jayden Gardner and Ben Vander Plas are out of eligibility, while Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro have entered the portal. With redshirt freshman Isaac Traudt also portaling, it's looking like Ryan Dunn or bust in the frontcourt—and the team's website lists him as a guard.
And frontcourt uncertainty is particularly concerning at Virginia, where the big man has traditionally been the most valuable player. Guys like Akil Mitchell, Anthony Gill, Isaiah Wilkins, Jay Huff and Shedrick have been so critical as the back line of the pack-line defense. And asking Dunn and/or freshman center Blake Buchanan to become that sine qua non for the team next season might be too much.
Head coach Tony Bennett could always go grab a big man or two from the portal, in which case we'd feel a lot better about UVA's 2024 NCAA tournament prospects. But as things stand, there is way more talent going out than coming in for a team that already wasn't anything special during the 2023 portion of this season.
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