Ranking the NFL's Worst Moves of Early 2023 Free-Agency Period
The road to lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February is often paved with great decisions in March and April.
The 2023 offseason is no different. Some choices will help build foundations that will keep teams contending for a long time. Others have set franchises down a bad path.
Here, we'll take a look at some of the worst decisions.
Those that have the potential to cause more harm for longer are ranked higher, while relatively innocuous bad decisions are ranked lower.
Either way, it's hard to see the positive for each.
8. New York Jets Give Up WR Elijah Moore to Move Up in Draft
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According to the Over the Cap trade calculator, the value gained from trading the No. 42 pick for the No. 74 pick is selection No. 211. That's a late sixth-rounder.
Instead, the Jets threw in Elijah Moore to grease the skids on the deal with the Cleveland Browns. Moore was in and out of fashion with the Jets last season. He saw 29 targets in the first five weeks but saw just seven over the next six games. The frustration led to a trade request in October.
As a rookie, he had 43 receptions for 538 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games.
Moore is still just 23 years old and was a second-round pick in 2021. The Jets essentially traded him as the added value to move up 32 spots in the draft.
There were some positives to the deal that keep it from ranking too high on the list. The Jets signed Mecole Hardman, giving them a similar player and making Moore expendable.
They'll also need some high-value picks to get a deal done with the Green Bay Packers for Aaron Rodgers. But neither of those excuse the Jets for treating Moore like a throw-in when he's a high-potential player at a premium position.
Ultimately, the Jets' depth at receiver makes this the best of the worst decisions in these rankings.
7. Carolina Panthers Sign RB Miles Sanders
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It seems like every year there's a free agent who is coming off a great season in which everything lined up for them. The perfect storm of surrounding talent, scheme and fit give them their best season just before getting overpaid by another team.
This year's candidate for that distinction is Miles Sanders.
The 25-year-old had his best season in his fourth year with the Eagles. He racked up 1,269 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns thanks in part to one of the league's elite offensive lines, Shane Steichen's play-calling and the utilization of quarterback Jalen Hurts as a runner.
Before that, Sanders had never rushed for more than 867 yards or six touchdowns. He didn't rush for a single score in the 12 games he played in 2021.
The Panthers gave Sanders the biggest contract of any free agent running back in this cycle. His four-year deal worth $25.4 million includes $13 million guaranteed and a $7.7 million cap hit in 2024.
It's not egregious. But when you see the one-year, $2 million contract that D'Onta Foreman signed in Chicago, it doesn't look so good. Foreman had 914 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 4.5 yards per carry for the Panthers last year.
Dropped into the same or similar offense, Sanders might not do much better than those numbers. The Panthers are paying a high price to find out.
There's a good chance Carolina will be looking at the out in Sanders' contract after two seasons. That's the thing that keeps this one relatively low in these rankings.
6. New York Giants Re-Sign QB Daniel Jones
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There are mitigating factors, but it's hard to wrap one's head around a $160 million contract for Daniel Jones.
The $40 million annual average makes him the seventh-highest-paid quarterback in the league, per Spotrac.
For the first three years of his career, he wasn't worth that kind of money. The 25-year-old threw for 45 touchdowns and 29 interceptions and was 12-25 as the starter. He never ranked higher than 18th in total QBR.
With Brian Daboll taking over the coaching staff, Jones showed life. He threw 15 touchdowns and five interceptions while going 9-6-1 as the starter. He added 708 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground and finished sixth in total QBR.
Still, the contract he got is a lot of money for a player who only has one year of real production.
Giving Jones the franchise tag and forcing him to prove himself for one more year before handing him that contract would have been optimal. General manager Joe Schoen was reluctant to use the $32.4 million tag because it would have hampered the Giants' ability to improve the roster.
Jones will count $21 million against the cap this season. The question is whether $11.4 million in cap savings this season is worth the monumental commitment to Jones.
The Giants can technically get out of the deal in two years for an $18 million dead-cap charge if things go south. That flexibility keeps the decision relatively low on this list.
5. Kansas City Chiefs Sign OT Jawaan Taylor
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The Kansas City Chiefs are making a sizable bet that Jawaan Taylor can transition to left tackle seamlessly.
It isn't uncommon for teams to bet on a player's trajectory. That's essentially what the draft is, but it isn't often that a team bets $80 million over four years.
Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star reported the franchise believes Taylor is athletic enough to switch from right tackle, where he played in Jacksonville, to left.
It might be true that the 25-year-old is an exceptional athlete. It might even be true that he can go to the left side. But he has yet to show elite play, and that's where the concern should be.
Taylor has gotten better each year he's been in the league. He gave up 23 sacks over the first two seasons of his career and has cut that number to 12 over the last two years, per Sports Info Solutions.
But he still gave up six sacks and committed 11 holding penalties in 2021.
Now the Chiefs are making him the fifth-highest-paid tackle in the league, by average annual value.
The fact that former Chief Orlando Brown Jr. took a deal for less money to play with Cincinnati and will likely see Kansas City in the playoffs multiple times over the next five years makes this move even harder to like.
The long-lasting impact at a key position puts it above the decisions before it. Taylor's youth and the potential for the move to ultimately work out keep it below the ones that come after it.
4. Denver Broncos Sign OT Mike McGlinchey
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No one will blame the Denver Broncos for trying to do everything they can to protect quarterback Russell Wilson. Finding value in free agency still has to be a priority, though.
Handing Mike McGlinchey a five-year, $87.5 million contract isn't that.
He is a good player but not a great one. According to Sports Info Solutions, the 28-year-old has given up 29 sacks across 69 career games. He's ceded at least six in every season except 2021 when he only played in eight games because of a quad injury.
Meanwhile, Kaleb McGary—a comparable player—got a three-year, $34.5 million contract to remain with the Atlanta Falcons this offseason. He's the same age and has only given up 13 sacks over the last three seasons following a rough rookie year in which he conceded 14.
The Broncos have to turn things around quickly. Year 1 of the Wilson era was a disaster, and they've paid a hefty price to bring in head coach Sean Payton to fix things.
Paying another large sum to bring in McGlinchey was an overpay.
The fact that he is likely to provide average production at a position where it's crucial to at least be average keeps it from being too high on the list, though.
3. Green Bay Packers' Approach to Trading QB Aaron Rodgers
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Aaron Rodgers' desire to leave the Green Bay Packers this offseason shouldn't have been a surprise. We've been through this song and dance before.
As Matt Schneidman of The Athletic noted, the Packers told their star quarterback to take as long as he needed to decide his future. However, word reportedly got back to him that the team was looking to trade him.
Thus, according to Rodgers, the decision to move on was made.
This is a situation where it seems like neither party handled as well as they could, but it's the Packers that are going to be hurt the most.
You can argue all day about who has more leverage between Rodgers' preferred destination, the New York Jets, and the Packers. It was still in Green Bay's best interest to move on as quickly as possible and focus on building in a post-Rodgers world.
Instead, the deal has yet to be completed, although Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated reported the trade could happen sometime this week. Breer also noted the deal is likely to involve one of the Jets' second-round picks and a conditional pick or selections in future drafts.
Meanwhile, the Packers have watched Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Jarran Reed, Dean Lowry and Krys Barnes walk while only adding safety Tarvarius Moore and long-snapper Matt Orzech as external options in free agency.
Without a deal in place for Rodgers, the Packers don't know what's happening with his massive contract. That has limited their free-agent options and the kind of team they can put around Jordan Love as they move on from the Rodgers era.
It's a steep price to pay to wind up with a trade package that might not even include a first-round pick.
2. New York Jets' Bizarre Pursuit of QB Aaron Rodgers
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Rodgers and the Packers have teamed up to go about the quarterback's potential trade to New York in the most awkward way possible. He announced he wanted to play for the Jets on March 15, and the deal still isn't done.
Lost in all the chaos and abnormality of the trade is whether this is even the right move for the Jets. They have an excellent young core, as cornerback Sauce Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running back Breece Hall and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams are all standouts in their 20s.
But is Rodgers the guy to bring that all together?
The version we saw in 2022 is not. He went 8-9 as a starter last season and threw 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with a QBR of 39.3, 26th in the league.
What we saw might just be who the 39-year-old is now. As Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report laid out, this deal can go several ways for the Jets.
Anything short of multiple playoff runs will be a disappointment. General manager Joe Douglas has set a great foundation for success. This move threatens to drastically impact it.
That's why it lands at No. 2.
1. Baltimore Ravens Play Hardball with QB Lamar Jackson
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The way the Baltimore Ravens have gone about Lamar Jackson's contract situation has caused significant damage to their relationship with their star quarterback.
Unable to agree to terms on a long-term pact with the 2019 MVP, the Ravens put the non-exclusive franchise tag on him March 7. It opens the window for other teams to negotiate an offer sheet with him that the Ravens would have an opportunity to match.
Jackson later revealed he requested a trade on March 2.
The tag opened the door to the possibility that someone else could essentially do the negotiating for the Ravens, but it's also opened the door for increased criticism from former and current players.
From an on-field standpoint, the Ravens don't have a clear succession plan for Jackson. They don't pick high enough in the draft (No. 22) to take a blue chip prospect, and the free-agent market has already played out.
Off the field, this whole saga makes them look bad, as they can't agree with an MVP quarterback who is still squarely in his prime at 26 years old. Even considering the injuries that have cost him significant time in each of the last two seasons, this has the potential to set them back for years.
That can't be said for most mistakes that made this list.
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