Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for Jets' NFL Trade Pursuit of Aaron Rodgers
The NFL is conducting league meetings this week in Arizona, and one of the hottest topics of conversation is the future of Aaron Rodgers and the prospective trade that would send the four-time MVP to the New York Jets.
Rodgers has made it clear he wants to play in New York. The Jets have made it clear they want him to. As of now, the deal hasn't materialized, but Jets GM Joe Douglas expressed confidence it will get done.
"There's been some productive conversations," Douglas said, via NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. "We're not where we need to be yet but I feel we're in a good place. There's no hard deadline. There's not a ton of urgency from our standpoint but very optimistic."
Per Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson, the main thing that has the Jets and Packers "stuck" in talks right now are the protections on a 2024 draft pick if Rodgers retires after the upcoming season.
"A sticking point in the talks is the Jets seeking an element of protection built into the trade, specifically one that sends some 2025 draft compensation to New York from Green Bay if Rodgers does not play in 2024 and beyond," Robinson wrote.
Robinson noted the current trade focus is on a second-round pick in 2023 and a second-round pick in 2024 that could become a first-rounder with "achievable" team performance escalators.
The most likely scenario appears to be Rodgers playing in the Big Apple in 2023. But there are still a handful of ways this saga could play out—including ones that don't involve Rodgers playing in green and white.
Here's a look at them, ranked from disastrous to dandy.
5. Zach Wilson as the Jets' Week 1 Starter
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While speaking to reporters at the NFL league meetings in Arizona on Monday, Jets head coach Robert Saleh said that he believes Zach Wilson still has a future in New York—as the team's backup quarterback.
"He's our No. 2," Saleh said. "I really still think Zach has a future in this league to be a really good quarterback, I really do. He has the work ethic, he has the mindset, he's coming in here to attack it. But, yeah, we're counting on him to be a fixture here for a while."
It's not hard to see why the Jets are relegating Wilson to the second-string role. In two seasons, Wilson has completed just 55.2 percent of his passes. He has more interceptions (18) than passing touchdowns (15). His passer rating is 70.9. And he appeared to lose the locker room last season.
However, there's a scenario in which Wilson winds up as New York's opening day starter—and it's one that likely keeps Douglas up at night.
There has been speculation that Green Bay wants the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft as part of a deal for Rodgers, though Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said Monday that he doesn't necessarily need a first-round selection.
Nonetheless, both sides should be plenty motivated to get a deal done (the Jets need a quarterback, the Packers need to get an unhappy Rodgers off the books), but it's possible the two sides could dig in and stubborn their way out of the deal. It's also possible that Lamar Jackson could either find a new home or mend fences with his old one during that stalemate.
That would leave the Jets either looking at options like Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz or giving the second overall pick in the 2021 draft one more chance—and potentially leave Saleh and Douglas looking for work a year from now.
4. Jets Land Aaron Rodgers—for Exactly One Year
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While appearing on The Pat McAfee Show earlier this month, Rodgers made the proclamation that set all this drama in motion. He was done with the Packers, the Packers were (in his opinion) done with him, and he wanted to play for the New York Jets.
"The Packers would like to move on," Rodgers said. "They've let me know that in so many words. They've let other people know that in direct words. And because I still have that fire and I wanna play, I'd like to play in New York, it's just a matter of getting that done at this point."
We've already addressed the absolute worst-case scenario for the Jets: the failure to upgrade at quarterback. But there's another scenario that would be almost as bad—and exponentially more expensive.
During that same appearance on McAfee's show, Rodgers indicated that before going on his "darkness retreat," he was 90 percent certain he would retire this year. Rodgers will turn 40 during the 2023 season. He's coming off one of the worst seasons of his career.
And it's not like he really has anything left to prove in the NFL. He has won a Super Bowl. He's been named MVP four times. He'll be a no-doubt first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Let's say, for argument's sake, that 2023 looks a lot like 2022. Rodgers doesn't post the numbers or enjoy the sort of team success that he is accustomed to. That could lead to whispers that Rodgers is done. Public criticism in that media market can become more than a little, um, aggressive.
At that point, Rodgers could decide that he should have listened to that ninety percent in 2023.
And New York could be looking at an even bigger debacle than the Brett Favre fiasco.
3. Jets Land Aaron Rodgers—and Miss the Playoffs
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It's understandable that just the prospect of landing Aaron Rodgers has New York's beleaguered fan base brimming with anticipation. The Jets last posted a winning season in 2015. They have lost double-digit games every year since then save one. New York hasn't been to the postseason since losing the AFC Championship Game all the way back in 2011.
Assuming for a moment that Rodgers plays at anywhere near the level of a four-time NFL MVP, he would be arguably the best quarterback the franchise has ever had from the moment he steps on the field at MetLife Stadium.
But just because Rodgers' potential arrival would make the Jets better, it doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl trip—or even a playoff berth.
For all the things a Rodgers-led Jets team would have going for it, the team would still have its flaws. The offensive line in front of Rodgers would be average at best. Rodgers would also be (outside Allen Lazard) working with a new cast of wide receivers, and he tends to favor throwing to targets he's familiar with.
And even if the line holds up and Rodgers develops chemistry with those wideouts, that guarantee still won't exist, especially not in the AFC.
Even with Rodgers on the team, the Jets are, at best, the second-best team in their own division, and that's if you believe New York is better than Miami. Outside the division, the AFC is loaded with big-name quarterbacks, whether it's Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, Joe Burrow in Cincinnati or Justin Herbert in Los Angeles.
Relative to the conference he's coming from, Rodgers would be joining an AFC that is stacked and quite possibly the toughest division in that stacked conference.
It's entirely possible that 10 wins won't be good enough for a playoff spot in the AFC. And the Jets haven't won more than 10 games in well over a decade.
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2. Jets Miss out on Aaron Rodgers—but Land Lamar Jackson
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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson dropped a bombshell of sorts Monday when he said on Twitter that he has formally requested a trade out of Charm City.
"... I love the game of football and my dream is to help a team win the super bowl," he tweeted, adding that Ravens fans "are great but I had to make a business decision that was best for my family and I. No matter how far I go or where my career takes me, I'll continue to be close to my fans of Baltimore Flock nation and the entire State of Maryland. You'll See me again."
To be clear, requesting a trade and actually getting one are two different things, and Jackson remains under the franchise tag in Baltimore for now. And while speaking to the media Monday, Douglas said New York has no plans to pursue the 2019 NFL MVP.
"It would be disingenuous and negotiating in bad faith if we went down that path," Douglas said. "Right now, we have our plan, we have our process, and we're sticking to that."
Of course, just because it's "Aaron Rodgers or Bust" right now doesn't mean it will stay that way, especially if things appear headed down the latter track.
And that may not be such a bad thing.
Yes, Jackson would be more expensive than Rodgers, at least in terms of draft capital. Signing him to an offer sheet would mean sacrificing a pair of first-round picks, and it's hard to imagine the Ravens accepting less, even if Jackson wants less.
But whereas Rodgers is nearing the end of his career, Jackson has yet to even hit his prime. He's the youngest player ever to be named MVP and the only quarterback in NFL history to gain 1,000 rushing yards in a season more than once. Jackson is maybe the hardest single player in the NFL to defend.
It could be a franchise-defining move. And one that would last far longer than Rodgers' time in New York would.
1. Aaron Rodgers Leads Jets on a Postseason Run
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This is it. The outcome that every Jets fan is hoping for. Dreaming of. Praying for.
In this hypothetical, Aaron Rodgers is the final missing element that will deliver them from their banishment to mediocrity and return Gang Green to prominence for the first time in a long time.
We have already discussed some of the reasons that might not happen. But to be clear, it totally could. The Jets have shown marked improvement over the past two years, and Saleh told reporters in Arizona the fact that Rodgers is even interested in coming to New York demonstrates the progress the team has made.
"Two years ago, when we first got there, just thinking about where we were and how far we've come, to have a guy like him want to play for us is pretty cool and shows how far we've come," Saleh said.
Saleh's right. The Jets have a lot going for them.
Saleh's right. The Jets have a lot going for them. Before tearing his ACL and meniscus last year, rookie running back Breece Hall looked the part of an electrifying young ball-carrier. 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson would offer Rodgers a true No. 1 receiver, a la Davante Adams. Lazard has already been brought over as a familiar face. Douglas confirmed that he's had conversations with Odell Beckham Jr.'s agent.
Defensively, the Jets are loaded with talent at all three levels, whether it's Quinnen Williams up front, C.J. Mosley at linebacker or 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year Ahmad Gardner in the secondary. New York was fourth in the league last year in both yards and points allowed.
It's also not like it's been a long time since we saw Rodgers play at an elite level. A hand injury didn't help Rodgers' performance in 2022, but he was the NFL MVP in 2021. He was also the NFL MVP in 2020.
New York has a playoff-caliber roster with a gaping void at quarterback. If the Jets land Rodgers and he plays like the quarterback we saw as recently as two years ago, a deep playoff run isn't at all out of the question.
And if Rodgers can become the fifth quarterback to start a Super Bowl for two different teams, then everything the Jets gave up to get him will absolutely be worth it.
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