MLB Predictions 2023: Updated Win-Loss Projections for Every Team
The long, arduous wait is finally over, and the MLB season is here.
Spring training provided a baseball fix, and the World Baseball Classic was a welcome prequel to this season. But now that native country flags and colors are being traded for club gear, we can focus on thinking about what this 2023 campaign is going to look like.
Before we even get a chance to overreact to early regular-season baseball, let's make win-loss projections for each team.
The DraftKings Sportsbook is our baseline, with projections from FanGraphs and PECOTA playoff projections offering even more insight.
American League East
1 of 6
Toronto Blue Jays
Last Year's Record: 92-70
Over/Under: 91.5
This is the year Toronto finally breaks through after showing glimpses of being elite.
The Blue Jays after trying to bounce back after ending last year on a sour note, as the Mariners overcame a seven-run deficit for the largest road comeback win in playoff history to clinch the Wild Card series.
They have two of the best pitchers in baseball anchoring their rotation with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman, along with José Berríos and free-agent addition Chris Bassitt.
Toronto, after ranking toward the bottom of MLB in left-handed batting last year (only four teams were worse), balanced its previously right-handed-heavy lineup with lefties Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho.
MLB.com's Blue Jays insider Keegan Matheson also expects this to be a team that runs a lot more on the basepaths given the team's new personnel and the league's new rules.
Prediction: 100-62
New York Yankees
Last Year's Record: 99-63
Over/Under: 93.5
A B/R prediction earlier this month had the Yankees as a team that could disappoint its projected win total. We'll change that here and have them surpassing it—but just barely.
There are valid concerns about a lineup so heavily reliant on home runs and a rotation filled with health concerns.
Carlos Rodón, the Yankees' marquee free-agent signing, is starting the season on the injured list with a left forearm muscle strain. That would be less concerning if it wasn't so similar to something dealt with in San Francisco last year, not to mention his extensive injury history including 2019 Tommy John surgery.
Luis Severino is also starting the season on the IL, and Frankie Montas was lost for the year. This is still a strong enough group to be one of the best in the AL, but it's facing plenty of challenges coming off a 99-win season and ALCS appearance.
Prediction: 94-68
Tampa Bay Rays
Last Year's Record: 86-76
Over/Under: 88.5
The entire baseball world should be looking to see what a healthy Wander Franco does over the course of a full season for the first time in his career.
The 22-year-old infielder and recipient of an 11-year, $182 million contract has yet to play more than 83 games in a season. This year could offer the Rays their best glimpse of what his—and their—future holds.
The Rays were not very active in free agency, so it would be unreasonable to expect a largely different team than last year's. But if they are healthy, the outcome should be slightly better and put Tampa right around its projected over/under.
Prediction: 88-74
Baltimore Orioles
Last Year's Record: 83-79
Over/Under: 76.5
Baltimore caught most by surprise last season, improving 31 games over its 2021 league-worst record.
While the offseason was uneventful, they did add a couple of pieces in veteran starter Kyle Gibson and utility player Adam Frazier, both one-time All-Stars in 2021. It won't be enough to win the division, but expect the Orioles to once again be competitive for a Wild Card spot late in the season.
The big thing to watch will be the development of second-year catcher Adley Rutschman, who seems poised to emerge as one of the game's best at the position.
Prediction: 84-78
Boston Red Sox
Last Year's Record: 78-84
Over/Under: 78.5
Here is one of the few teams where last year's record, this year's over/under projection and final prediction all look fairly consistent.
A common criticism of the Red Sox offseason, and really their overall strategy the past few years, is that it lacks a clear vision or plan.
This offseason was highlighted by losing Xander Bogaerts in free agency, extending Rafael Devers and signing 29-year-old Japanese star Masataka Yoshida to a massive deal. They also signed longtime Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, former Dodgers and Atlanta closer Kenley Jansen and 34-year-old Adam Duvall to play center field while Kiké Hernández fills Bogaerts' place at shortstop.
None of this sounds like enough to pick Boston up from where it fell last year.
Prediction: 78-84
American League Central
2 of 6
Cleveland Guardians
Last Year's Record: 92-70
Over/Under: 86.5
The Guardians are another team that could disappoint this season, considering the lofty expectations set by last year's success.
Fortunately for Cleveland, it plays in a division with teams that are harder to believe in. The Guardians relied on one of baseball's youngest groups last year, and replicating that performance is going to call for similar contributions.
But now they have switch-hitting first baseman Josh Bell and veteran catcher Mike Zunino as key free-agent additions. Those two should provide some additional power, but this is still a squad built on getting good contact for singles and doubles while being aggressive on the basepaths.
Prediction: 90-72
Chicago White Sox
Last Year's Record: 81-81
Over/Under: 82.5
After seemingly wasting two years of a championship window, the White Sox are trying to make up for lost time. Despite being the most talented AL Central team last year, Chicago underachieved and finished with a .500 record.
First-year manager Pedro Grifol has been tasked with making all of this talent come together. His focus on attention to detail should help the White Sox translate their talent to more wins. Health will also be key.
Chicago played much of the season without All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson, who was held to just 79 games with groin injuries and a broken finger. The White Sox will need his production and leadership, especially with the departure of former MVP José Abreu.
Prediction: 89-73
Minnesota Twins
Last Year's Record: 78-84
Over/Under: 83.5
The Twins should be better than last year after adding free agents Christian Vázquez, Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo as well as Opening Day starter Pablo López in the Luis Arráez trade.
Their biggest offseason move was somehow surviving the Carlos Correa sweepstakes. The superstar shortstop agreed to terms with not one, but two other teams in free agency before the deals fell through and ultimately landed him back in Minnesota.
Now, they have to focus on staying healthy and putting all of these new pieces together. The potential is there for the Twins to take significant steps, but the Guardians and White Sox still appear to be the toast of the division.
Prediction: 80-82
Kansas City Royals
Last Year's Record: 65-97
Over/Under: 69.5
This should be another lost season for the Royals, but they are good enough to surpass last year's win total and this year's over/under projection.
Don't expect a lot more than that.
If you're looking for a reason to watch this team, though, it's former No. 2 pick Bobby Witt Jr. He struggled with the glove last year but showed his power clearly plays at the big-league level with 20 home runs.
Look for Witt to improve in the field and continue to thrive at the plate. The Royals also want to see former first-round pitcher Brady Singer continue to make strides.
Prediction: 70-92
Detroit Tigers
Last Year's Record: 66-96
Over/Under: 69.5
Similar to the Royals, the Tigers don't have a ton of reason for optimism. The most interesting aspect of the team is the development of second-year player Spencer Torkelson, who struggled at times as a rookie in 2022.
Detroit sent him back down to Triple-A midseason, and he showed encouraging signs after being called back up in September.
The Tigers must also be hoping for a bounce-back season from Javier Báez after an awful 2022 debut with the team.
But beyond that, this is an obvious cellar dweller.
Prediction: 65-97
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros
Last Year's Record: 106-56
Over/Under: 95.5
There are reasons to doubt the defending World Series champion Astros are as good as they were last year.
AL Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is gone. Three-time batting champion and former AL MVP José Altuve is out for the first couple of months with a thumb injury suffered during the World Baseball Classic. Lance McCullers Jr. is recovering from a forearm strain suffered during spring training with no timetable to return.
The Astros also brought back Michael Brantley, whose shoulder surgery last year is going to cause him to ease into action this season.
So there are some obstacles for the champs, but this is still largely the same dynamic group that annually plays deep into October.
Houston won't win 100 games again this season, but it will knock on the door and continue to lead the AL West.
Prediction: 98-64
Seattle Mariners
Last Year's Record: 90-72
Over/Under: 87.5
The Mariners feature one of the better rotations in the game with Luis Castillo, former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and up-and-comers Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.
They also acquired Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays. He should provide outfield slugging to complement reigning AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez, who is already one of baseball's best and most exciting players.
Seattle broke its long postseason drought last year and hopes to build on that in 2023. The Mariners should be at least as good as last year, which makes their over/under projection a bit surprising.
In the end, it's the Astros' division, and the Mariners will do well with one of those Wild Card spots.
Prediction: 93-69
Texas Rangers
Last Year's Record: 68-94
Over/Under: 82.5
The Rangers are clearly serious about making noise in the AL West. They have taken a backseat to the Astros, both in the state and the division, for long enough.
Despite their aggressive moves in the past two offseasons, don't expect this to change in 2023. Texas should be a better team than a year ago, with an improved lineup and Jacob deGrom added atop of the rotation.
But the Rangers still don't quite measure up to the Astros or Mariners.
Martín Pérez is the only one of the Rangers' five starters who did not spend time on the injured list last season. Until they prove they can stay healthy, there's no reason to buy into the Rangers early.
Prediction: 73-89
Los Angeles Angels
Last Year's Record: 73-89
Over/Under: 82.5
It seems like every season is going to be the one in which the Angels finally get over the hump. No one feels good about Mike Trout, the best player of his generation, only appearing once in the postseason with no playoff wins to show for it.
This felt wrong even before Shohei Ohtani emerged as the team's star, and it continues to feel wrong as we suspect Ohtani won't be there for much longer.
The Angels' path to success lies in their lineup improving drastically, and of course, staying healthy. They were bottom-eight in OPS last year, which will not get it done.
The additions of outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Brett Phillips, along with infielders Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury, should help them. But it's on-brand for the Angels to disappoint.
Prediction: 72-90
Oakland Athletics
Last Year's Record: 60-102
Over/Under: 60.5
While the A's hope for progress, the betting expectation is for them to remain the same. They might even be worse in terms of win-loss record, so it's worth considering what "progress" exactly looks like for Oakland.
This was the worst offense in baseball last season, turning in a .627 OPS. Their big moves to address this issue were signing veterans Jesús Aguilar, Aledmys Díaz and Jace Peterson to hit in the middle of the order. They also traded Sean Murphy to Atlanta in another effort to offload any young talent they had remaining.
Now that the A's seem finished tearing everything down, this feels like the true start to their rebuild. But it usually gets worse before it gets better in these situations.
Prediction: 56-106
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta
Last Year's Record: 101-61
Over/Under: 94.5
If Atlanta is a 100-win team without Ozzie Albies and a largely diminished Ronald Acuna Jr., what must it look like with those two back at full strength?
That's the question to keep in mind as the season begins.
The main departure, of course, is Dansby Swanson leaving for the Cubs in free agency. But Atlanta also traded for Sean Murphy and, along with Travis d'Arnaud, figure to have the best catching combination in baseball.
The over/under line is respectful considering their tough division, but it will be surpassed.
Prediction: 99-63
New York Mets
Last Year's Record: 101-61
Over/Under: 91.5
This is going to be one of the more expensive and recognizable Wild Card teams you will ever find.
The Mets will spend the season trying to answer the question of how far the Justin Verlander-Max Scherzer duo can take them. The likely answer: right around where they ended up last season.
Instead of tying Atlanta for the division's best record, the Mets will slightly hit the over on their win total, but it won't be enough to win the NL East.
It's essentially the same team that failed to do so last season, despite winning 101 games. The main differences are swapping out Jacob deGrom for Verlander and losing Edwin Díaz to a patellar tendon injury.
Prediction: 92-70
Philadelphia Phillies
Last Year's Record: 87-75
Over/Under: 88.5
You could write "health" for just about any team as the key to their success, but it especially applies to the three teams at the top of the NL East.
The Phillies are going to be without two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper to start the season because of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Rhys Hoskins suffered a season-ending ACL injury during spring training. Is Philadelphia deep enough to compensate?
The Phillies are building on expectations set by last year's ill-fated World Series run. But understanding the window is open and talent is there, Philly added Trea Turner, Taijaun Walker, Gregory Soto and Josh Harrison.
They should have a slightly better record than last year and pose the same kind of threat to make a run in the postseason.
Prediction: 89-73
Miami Marlins
Last Year's Record: 69-93
Over/Under: 76.5
Take the backhanded compliment for what it is—the Marlins were one of the best losing teams in the NL last year. They started the season 12-8 with some of the game's best young pitching, but as tends to happen in professional sports, attrition got the best of Miami.
Then the Marlins made some significant upgrades, trading for AL batting champion Luis Arráez, JT Chargois and signing infielder Jean Segura and right-handed pitcher Johnny Cueto.
The Arráez deal moves All-Star second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field. He's never played there, but he has the athleticism and speed to cover ground.
This season, the Marlins will go from one of the best losing teams to a solid .500 one.
Prediction: 81-81
Washington Nationals
Last Year's Record: 55-107
Over/Under: 59.5
The Nationals are still working their way through a rebuild after back-to-back seasons with roster overhaul. They have a few core pieces that need to develop this season, and like other non-contenders, that's how success will be measured in 2023.
A rotation led by Patrick Corbin with Josiah Gray, Trevor Williams, MacKenzie Gore and Chad Kuhl can only take a team so far. And by "so far," we mean nowhere.
But if they can get Joey Meneses to keep improving, as well as others like Gray, Gore, Cade Cavalli, Keibert Ruiz, Luis García and CJ Abrams, it should bode well enough for the future to make up for the lack of wins.
Prediction: 52-110
National League Central
5 of 6
St. Louis Cardinals
Last Year's Record: 93-69
Over/Under: 88.5
The Cardinals have to feel good about replacing franchise icon Yadier Molina with the best catcher on the market in Willson Contreras.
St. Louis also returns a pair of MVP candidates, including first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who took the award home last year. If he and third baseman Nolan Arenado play anything like they did last year, the Cardinals have arguably two of the NL's five best players.
If they can get bounce-back performances from Jack Flaherty, Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson, this group is even better than last year's 93-win team.
Prediction: 97-65
Milwaukee Brewers
Last Year's Record: 86-76
Over/Under: 85.5
The Brewers are still stuck in the awkward position of being too good to reboot but not truly good enough to compete with the game's elite.
We already know about their elite pitching led by Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. The offense is better than advertised, too, having finished in the top 10 in runs scored and OPS.
But they don't quite measure up against the Cardinals in their own division. The other NL divisions have at least two teams that are better.
Milwaukee should have a similar record to last year, when it was fought but failed to secure a Wild Card spot.
Prediction: 83-79
Chicago Cubs
Last Year's Record: 74-88
Over/Under: 77.5
The Cubs are one of the more interesting follows in baseball this year, because there is such a wide variance in how their season could go.
They could be the far-below-average team they were overall last year or something closer to the one that turned the corner in its second half. The Cubs posted a winning record post-All-Star break (39-31) and then added free agent shortstop Dansby Swanson and a number of reclamation projects in the offseason.
With Nico Hoerner moving over to second base and Swanson as one of the game's better defensive shortstops, this is an upgraded defense that should be able to prevent runs.
If Cody Bellinger regains his MVP form, Seiya Suzuki is the star they anticipate he is and veteran signings like Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer can contribute, this is a better team.
Is it good enough to make a dent in the loaded National League? Probably not.
Prediction: 80-82
Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Year's Record: 62-100
Over/Under: 68.5
No need to kid ourselves about this one. The Pirates won't reach this projected over/under win total. That won't be what Pittsburgh measures this season by anyway.
It won't matter much if they win 62 games like last year, hit the over on the betting line 68.5, or fall to the projected 60 wins here. What matters is how their young players are looking by season's end.
Is this a core the Pirates can believe in? They need several blue-chip prospects to make their debuts and others like Oneil Cruz and Ke'Bryan Hayes to look like foundational pieces.
Pittsburgh also needs to sort out the Bryan Reynolds situation and see how much the Yankees or Dodgers will give up for him at the trade deadline.
Prediction: 60-102
Cincinnati Reds
Last Year's Record: 62-100
Over/Under: 65.5
Similar to their division counterpart in Pittsburgh, the Reds are not working with a ton of major-league-ready talent. Cincinnati might actually be worse.
The Reds are still young in their rebuild while providing little to nothing offensively.
The only time to watch Cincinnati in 2023 is whenever its young pitchers, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, are on the mound.
Even Joey Votto, who for a long time has been the Reds' most reliable and entertaining player, is coming off surgery to repair his bicep and rotator cuff in his left shoulder after his worst offensive season.
Prediction: 59-103
National League West
6 of 6
San Diego Padres
Last Year's Record: 89-73
Over/Under: 93.5
The Padres are a trendy pick to win the World Series this year after the moves they've made, including bringing in Juan Soto, arguably the best hitter in baseball, at last season's trade deadline.
They went even further by signing shortstop Xander Bogaerts in free agency and extending Manny Machado and Yu Darvish to ensure they are key parts of the team's future.
It will be quite the turn seeing the Padres supplant the Dodgers as the class of the NL West for the first time in more than a decade.
San Diego has the best lineup in the NL, maybe even across all of baseball. Its pitching is finally solid enough to help it take that next step.
Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back this year will help, too.
Prediction: 97-65
Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Year's Record: 111-51
Over/Under: 95.5
The biggest anticipated drop-off across the game is with the Dodgers, which have been a staple of National League dominance for the better part of a decade.
They lost key pieces in Trea Turner and Justin Turner, and they just decided they no longer wanted Cody Bellinger.
The loss of Justin Turner likely places Max Muncy at third base, but does anyone feel like they adequately addressed these departures?
J.D. Martinez should be a fine designated hitter. The Dodgers should be a fine team, but they won't have those best-record-in-baseball and highest-run-differential vibes from last year.
Prediction: 93-69
San Francisco Giants
Last Year's Record: 81-81
Over/Under: 81.5
So close, but so far. That about sums up the Giants' offseason.
Aaron Judge flirted with them before ultimately deciding to return to the Yankees. Carlos Correa looked like he'd play there until concerns were raised about a surgically repaired ankle from his minor-league days.
Even Carlos Rodón seemed like a candidate to return until he, too, chose The Bronx over The Bay.
The Giants' key free-agent signings are Michael Conforto, who did not play last season, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Mitch Haniger and Taylor Rogers. There is still a serious question mark at catcher, an offseason need the Giants did not exactly address.
This is once again a team that's too good to bottom out but still nowhere near the Padres or Dodgers.
Prediction: 74-88
Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year's Record: 74-88
Over/Under: 75.5
Even in a division with heavyweights, the Diamondbacks have to feel pretty good about themselves in 2023.
They showed significant improvement from 2021 to 2022, and now there is actual optimism. The confidence is there with legitimate Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen leading the way alongside Madison Bumgarner, Merrill Kelly and Zach Davies.
Infielders Ketel Marte and Christian Walker are names you've heard, but NL Rookie of the Year candidate Corbin Carroll will also be in the mix.
Arizona is looking to continue developing its young players while contending for a Wild Card berth this season.
Prediction: 77-85
Colorado Rockies
Last Year's Record: 68-94
Over/Under: 65.5
The Rockies signed Jurickson Profar after the World Baseball Classic, and it was arguably their best offseason move.
Not much else needs to be said from there. This was a 68-win team last year that did virtually nothing to improve its chances of winning more games.
The Rockies can at least hope Year 2 of the Kris Bryant experiences is more productive than Year 1 when he played just 42 games.
Prediction: 62-100
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