Men's NCAA Tournament 2023: B/R Expert Predictions for First Round
With the First Four of the 2023 men's NCAA tournament complete, it's officially time to dive into the first-round matchups.
Thirty-two games over the course of about 36 hours. So many bracket implications. So many things to bet on. And so much to consider in advance of the two greatest days on the sports calendar.
I've spent most of my waking hours since the selection show poring over these matchups, searching for any and every spot where an underdog might have an advantage or where the predictive analytics/betting lines seem to be missing something significant.
For each of the 32 games, we'll briefly sum up what it would take for each team to win before also offering up a spot where you might consider placing a wager. (Lines from DraftKings and updated at 10 p.m. ET Wednesday, except for the TCU-Arizona State game added later.)
Lastly, our college basketball experts will each offer up their prediction on which team gets the win.
Watch March Madness Live to stream every tournament game through the Final Four.
No. 7 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 10 USC Trojans
1 of 32
Matchup: No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 USC (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS), Columbus
One-Sentence Synopsis: Tough call between evenly matched teams who even have basically the same mascot, if that's how you pick a bracket.
Michigan State Wins If: It commits to shooting threes. Michigan State makes threes at just about the best clip in the entire country, but it has never been Tom Izzo's M.O. to give his guys a permanent green light from distance. The Spartans barely rank among the top 300 nationwide in three-point attempt rate. But if ever there was a game to let 'em fly from deep, it's this one against a long, tall USC team that ranks second in the nation in two-point defense.
USC Wins If: Boogie Ellis reignites. Ellis put up 31 in the win over UCLA, 33 against Stanford, 35 against Arizona and another 28 against Arizona State, all in the past seven weeks. The fourth-year shooting guard had previously put up 28 in a game only once in his career, and then he became an unstoppable wrecking ball. And Michigan State isn't exactly renowned for its ability to shut down shooting guards. The Spartans enter the Big Dance having allowed the opposition's starting shooting guard to score at least 20 in four straight games.
If I Had to Bet on Something: +900 to go to OT. Didn't do any of these types of prop bets for the Thursday slate, but this feels like an overtime game. Either Ellis or Tyson Walker will hit some big jumper with 20 seconds left to tie the game, and then the other will dribble out the clock before firing up a step-back three that doesn't even come close to finding its mark.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Michigan State
Kerry Miller: Michigan State
Joel Reuter: USC
No. 3 Xavier Musketeers vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State Owls
2 of 32
Matchup: No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV), Greensboro
One-Sentence Synopsis: Kennesaw State has won 12 more games than it did in any previous season, but getting another win will be mighty difficult for the Owls.
Xavier Wins If: The offense shows up. Xavier is 25-2 this season when it scores at least 73 points, with the lone losses coming in close calls against both Indiana and Gonzaga back in November. The Musketeers are 0-7 when they score 72 points or fewer, though, and they've been held below 70 in five of their last 13 games. They should be able to score on Kennesaw State, but then again, the Owls just shut down a potent Liberty offense in the A-Sun championship.
Kennesaw State Wins If: It has improved drastically since December. KSU played three games against tournament teams: a close contest at VCU playing without Ace Baldwin, a 34-point loss at San Diego State and a 14-point loss at Indiana on a night where Trayce Jackson-Davis didn't play for the Hoosiers. Not much there to suggest an upset of a No. 3 seed is imminent, but the Owls did win 16 of their final 18 games.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 154. The 11.5-point spread feels right, but the over/under is a bit low. Xavier has played in 14 games in which each team scored at least 76 points, and Kennesaw State has enough offense to make this the 15th such contest.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Xavier
Kerry Miller: Xavier
Joel Reuter: Xavier
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
3 of 32
Matchup: No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT), Denver
One-Sentence Synopsis: After losing four of its final six games, Baylor went from a possible No. 1 seed to a No. 3 seed on upset alert.
Baylor Wins If: The trio of guards plays well. This isn't a tournament-long winning formula. Baylor will need more than just Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer in future rounds. But if those three do their usual thing, combining for about 45 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, the Gauchos probably won't be able to keep up.
UC Santa Barbara Wins If: It owns the paint. Baylor's frontcourt defense has been a major problem for months, and UC Santa Barbara gets 58 percent of its points from two-point field goals. The Bears might be able to trade enough three for twos to survive a big night from UCSB down low, but among the No. 14 and No. 15 seeds, this is the worst matchup Baylor could have asked for.
If I Had to Bet on Something: UCSB +10.5. It's fair to worry that the Gauchos have yet to face an opponent better than UC Irvine, let alone defeat one. But point guard Ajay Mitchell is quite the X-factor behind whom UCSB can give Baylor a run for its money.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Baylor
Kerry Miller: Baylor
Joel Reuter: Baylor
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels vs. No. 12 VCU Rams
4 of 32
Matchup: No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 VCU Rams (West Regional)
Details: Friday at 2 p.m. ET (TBS), Albany
One-Sentence Synopsis: Classic "we went to a rock fight and a basketball game broke out" type of game where either team stringing together three consecutive scoring possessions might be a pipe dream.
Saint Mary's Wins If: It dominates on the glass. VCU isn't a small team by any means, but the Rams just barely have a positive rebounding margin for the season. Meanwhile, Saint Mary's ranks among the top 10 nationwide in rebound margin and could control this game in that fashion.
VCU Wins If: Its defense is disruptive enough. Getting steals against Saint Mary's isn't easy. In fact, the Gaels are seventh in the nation in steal rate on offense. But they also play in the WCC, where they have the best defensive turnover rate at 120th. This game could be a rude awakening for a Gaels offense that hasn't faced much ball pressure since losing back-to-back games to New Mexico and Houston.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Saint Mary's -4. It's a 5-12 matchup. It's VCU. The line being this low makes sense. But the Gaels were also starting to feel like a title contender before getting smoked by Gonzaga in the WCC championship, and VCU is only here because it won one of the worst A-10s ever. Saint Mary's should win by multiple possessions. (But I'm the only one of the three of us who feels that way...)
Predictions
David Kenyon: VCU
Kerry Miller: Saint Mary's
Joel Reuter: VCU
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Vermont Catamounts
5 of 32
Matchup: No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Vermont (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS), Columbus
One-Sentence Synopsis: Unexpected Big East champ takes on always expected America East champ.
Marquette Wins If: The offense does its thing. At some point, there will be reason to worry if the offense is enough to make up for poor rebounding and a defense that's just OK when it's not forcing a litany of turnovers. But this shouldn't be that point, because Vermont doesn't even rank in the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Not saying the Golden Eagles will score on every possession, but it might feel like it.
Vermont Wins If: It manages to grind Marquette to a halt. Vermont can shoot, and it doesn't commit many turnovers. As such, the Catamounts could put forth one heck of a fight by playing long offensive possessions, getting back in transition and basically just frustrating Marquette into shooting itself in the foot. If this is a free-flowing, 70-plus-possession game, the Golden Eagles will soar into the round of 32.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Marquette -10.5. There's nothing like a good No. 15 vs. No. 2 upset to put everyone's bracket in shambles before the first Saturday of the tournament, but this one shouldn't be all that close. Vermont put some good teams into the field as No. 13 seeds in recent years, but this one has a much lower ceiling.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Marquette
Kerry Miller: Marquette
Joel Reuter: Marquette
No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh Panthers
6 of 32
Matchup: No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 3:10 p.m. ET (truTV), Greensboro
One-Sentence Synopsis: Is Pitt this year's "First Four-to-Sweet 16" team, or will 13-loss Iowa State thrive in its first game after the Big 12 gauntlet?
Iowa State Wins If: It owns the paint with Federiko Federiko limited or out. Pitt's starting center missed the First Four game against Mississippi State with a knee injury and has to be considered questionable at best for this one. And while the Cyclones aren't a particularly good shooting team, they do have a pair of big men in Osun Osunniyi and Robert Jones who could make hay in the paint.
Pittsburgh Wins If: It limits turnovers. Pitt is usually solid in this department, but the Cyclones are elite at forcing turnovers. And early in the year against turnover-forcing defenses, Pitt had 19 giveaways in a loss to West Virginia and 18 in a loss to VCU. Feels like 13 could be the tipping point in this matchup. More than that, advantage Iowa State. Fewer than that, hail to Pitt.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 131.5. The Pitt defense was a hot mess heading into the First Four, allowing at least 78 points in five consecutive games. But Iowa State is simply not a high-scoring team, nor does it have a defense that allows more than 70 points very often. Expect a close, low-scoring affair, and hope for no overtime.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Pittsburgh
Kerry Miller: Iowa State
Joel Reuter: Iowa State
No. 6 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 11 North Carolina State Wolfpack
7 of 32
Matchup: No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 NC State (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 4 p.m. ET (TNT), Denver
One-Sentence Synopsis: After all the preseason hype as a Final Four contender, will Creighton at least survive the first step to Houston?
Creighton Wins If: It controls the paint. The Bluejays won't force many turnovers. They never do, and NC State has one of the most turnover-averse offenses in the country. But Creighton has a Virginia-like ability to contest shots without fouling, own the defense glass and limit opponents to around 46 percent shooting inside the arc. And in its lone game against UVA this season, NC State scored 50 points.
NC State Wins If: DJ Burns Jr. outplays Ryan Kalkbrenner in the paint. We'll see how much the referees let Burns get away with. NC State's big man has dealt with more than his fair share of foul trouble this season. But if he's allowed to muscle Kalkbrenner around, he is certainly capable of doing so. And the dynamic of this matchup would shift in the Wolfpack's favor if Creighton's big man is held to 10 points or fewer for the first time in over two months.
If I Had to Bet on Something: NC State +190 ML. Since getting destroyed by Clemson (for the third time) in the ACC quarterfinals, NC State has undoubtedly heard everyone saying that it can't win away from home and doesn't belong in the tournament. And the Wolfpack are going to come into this game with the type of fire that Notre Dame rode to two wins last year or that Syracuse rode to the Final Four in 2016.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Creighton
Kerry Miller: NC State
Joel Reuter: Creighton
No. 4 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 13 Iona Gaels
8 of 32
Matchup: No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 13 Iona (West Regional)
Details: Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET (TBS), Albany
One-Sentence Synopsis: Nice gesture by the selection committee to match Rick Pitino up with Connecticut, giving him an early look at what he'll deal with as the next coach of St. John's or Georgetown.
Connecticut Wins If: It dominates the offensive glass. Which it should. UConn leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, while Iona is No. 272 on the defensive glass. And in the two games the Huskies played against No. 265 in defensive rebounding (Butler), they grabbed a combined 36 offensive rebounds. The Connecticut offense is good enough on the first shot, so giving it second and third chances is a terrible idea.
Iona Wins If: The defense makes a ton of impact plays. Connecticut is undeniably bigger, better and deeper. But the Gaels do average 5.6 blocks and 7.5 steals per game, and UConn does have a bit of a turnover-committing problem. Exactly how many blocks and steals it would take for Iona to pull off the upset, who's to say? At some point, though, the volume of those momentum-shifting plays could be too much for the Huskies to survive.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Connecticut -9.5. Could Iona pull off the upset? Sure. That Pitino guy can coach, and he has the Gaels playing great defense. But Connecticut winning by double digits feels like the most likely outcome, as the Huskies have an even better defense.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Connecticut
Kerry Miller: Connecticut
Joel Reuter: Connecticut
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
9 of 32
Matchup: No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT), Columbus
One-Sentence Synopsis: Zach Edey might have his best performance of the entire season against a roster that cannot possibly hang with him.
Purdue Wins If: Edey plays. To our knowledge, there's no injury or illness the big man is dealing with, so we assume he's playing. And if he does, the size disparity is going to be hysterical. FDU ranks dead last in the nation in average height and does not play a single guy taller than 6'6". Edey is 7'4". The Knights might have to triple-team him to keep him from going for 40 points and 25 rebounds.
Fairleigh Dickinson Wins If: It finds a way to turn the height issue into an advantage. The Knights' only realistic hope of neutralizing Edey is running a full-court press for 40 minutes, hoping to force turnovers before Purdue can even get the ball into the frontcourt. And given the issues Purdue has had in recent weeks when trying to break a press, maybe it works.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 145. Purdue usually plays at a slow pace, but it should be a lot of quick possessions for the Boilermakers. Plus, got to think FDU is going to push the tempo as much as it can, either in hopes of wearing out Edey or just beating him down the floor for occasionally easy buckets. Should be a high-scoring game, even if it's not a close one.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Purdue
Kerry Miller: Purdue
Joel Reuter: Purdue
No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 11 Providence Friars
10 of 32
Matchup: No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Providence (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS), Greensboro
One-Sentence Synopsis: Looking to avenge last year's Saint Peter's fiasco, Kentucky opens with a Providence foe that reached the Sweet 16 in 2022.
Kentucky Wins If: Providence's collapse continues. Whether it's the Ed Cooley-to-Georgetown rumors or something else entirely, the Friars were a mess down the stretch. They lost by 24 at home to Seton Hall and made the final score respectable but trailed by 26 in the second half against UConn in the Big East Tournament. And if that team shows up, Kentucky will win in a landslide. Even if the Cats draw "first 29 games of the season" Providence, they should pounce on a mediocre defense.
Providence Wins If: It's a Bryce Hopkins revenge game. Couldn't even tell you if there's any sort of bad blood there, but Hopkins was a top-40 recruit in the 2021 class, barely played at Kentucky, transferred to Providence and exploded into a star. He could be extra motivated to have one of his best games of the season.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Kentucky -4. Hate to recommend paying the "public" tax to make a bet on Kentucky—this should be -1.5 or -2—but it's fine because Providence was a mess outside of what was until last year The Dunk. The Friars played seven games away from home against tournament teams and went 0-7. The only one decided by fewer than six points was an overtime game at Xavier in its first contest after losing Zach Freemantle. Kentucky should win somewhat comfortably. (Yes, Kentucky also should have won comfortably against Saint Peter's last year.)
Predictions
David Kenyon: Providence
Kerry Miller: Kentucky
Joel Reuter: Kentucky
No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 12 Drake Bulldogs
11 of 32
Matchup: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Drake (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS), Albany
One-Sentence Synopsis: ACC regular-season co-champion squares off with tough No. 12 seed out of the Missouri Valley.
Miami Wins If: It's an up-and-down game wherein offense reigns supreme. Drake is solid, but if this game is played in the mid- to upper 70s—when having four players who average better than 13 points per game is better than having just two reliable scorers—that will bode well for the Canes, who are 21-3 when scoring more than 70 points.
Drake Wins If: Norchad Omier is out for Miami. The big man got hurt in the ACC tournament loss to Duke, and if he can't go, it will be a massive swing in favor of Drake, whose 6'10", 275-pound Darnell Brodie would have a field day in the paint against a defense that was already questionable at full strength. If he's putting in work down low and Tucker DeVries is doing his thing all over the floor, it's upset city.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Drake +2. As mentioned with the Boise State +1.5 line, you could always just jump to the moneyline for a slightly better payout if you feel good about the upset, but know you'll be kicking yourself if Drake loses by one point. This is a good Drake team that could win even if Omier plays.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Miami
Kerry Miller: Drake
Joel Reuter: Drake
No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon Antelopes
12 of 32
Matchup: No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon (West Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV), Denver
One-Sentence Synopsis: It's a battle of the Drews with Drew Timme and Gonzaga taking on Bryce Drew's Antelopes of Grand Canyon.
Gonzaga Wins If: A great offense throttles a bad defense. The Zags lead the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency while Grand Canyon barely ranks in the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Pepperdine had a similarly ranked defense, and Gonzaga dropped 111 and 97 on the Waves. Granted, they play at a much faster pace than GCU does, but even on a per-possession basis, it got ugly.
Grand Canyon Wins If: Ray Harrison goes off. GCU's star guard has scored at least 25 points in four of six games thus far in March, and against a Gonzaga team that doesn't play great defense and that has some questionable guard play, he could be gearing up for another gem. It legitimately might take 40 from Harrison to pull off the upset, but he could do it.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 156. Pretty confident Gonzaga will hold up its end of the bargain here by scoring at least 85 points. Question is whether Grand Canyon will be able to get into the 70s. But betting against Gonzaga's defense has been a lucrative move for most of the year.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: Gonzaga
Joel Reuter: Gonzaga
No. 8 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
13 of 32
Matchup: No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TNT), Columbus
One-Sentence Synopsis: Should be one of the best games of the entire opening weekend when this pair of mutually under-seeded teams squares off late Friday night.
Memphis Wins If: It's simply the tougher, scrappier team. On defense, Memphis does an excellent job of blocking shots and forcing turnovers. And while FAU's offense statistically does well to avoid those momentum-shifting plays, it also has not faced a team this good. An old, experienced Memphis team could come out and just chop FAU down before it ever has a chance to get comfortable.
Florida Atlantic Wins If: It rains threes. Which it does. FAU ranks top 40 in the nation in both three-point rate and three-point percentage and has seven players who have made at least 30 triples on the season. And Memphis allows three-point attempts at one of the highest rates in the country, so the Owls certainly should get plenty of looks from the perimeter.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 153. Might be wishful thinking, but this could be an instant classic of two teams on a mission, exchanging big buckets in a race to 80 points.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Memphis
Kerry Miller: Florida Atlantic
Joel Reuter: Memphis
No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 14 Montana State Bobcats
14 of 32
Matchup: No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Montana State (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET (CBS), Greensboro
One-Sentence Synopsis: First-year head coach Jerome Tang hoping to bring Kansas State just its second first-round victory in more than a decade.
Kansas State Wins If: It keeps the turnovers under control. The Wildcats are a perfect 12-0 when turning the ball over 12 or fewer times and went 1-5 in games with at least 18 giveaways. That doesn't entirely rest on Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson's shoulders, but KSU's dynamic duo does average 6.7 turnovers per game. Montana State is just average in the steals department, though.
Montana State Wins If: It gets KSU into foul trouble. Might want to watch this game on mute because of all the whistles. Both Kansas State games and Montana State games have averaged slightly more than 42 free-throw attempts per game, and it'll probably be more than that when these physical teams join forces. And if that results in some combination of Johnson, Nowell and Nae'Qwan Tomlin being limited by foul trouble, Montana State can pull off the upset. (Conversely, if it's RaeQuan Battle getting into early foul trouble, Kansas State wins easily.)
If I Had to Bet on Something: Kansas State -8.5. For whatever reason, the Big Sky champ never puts up much of a fight. It is 0-15 in the past 15 tournaments, and the only one to lose by eight points or fewer was Montana in 2010, which kept things interesting against an egregiously overrated New Mexico team.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kansas State
Kerry Miller: Kansas State
Joel Reuter: Kansas State
No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 13 Kent State Golden Flashes
15 of 32
Matchup: No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Kent State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:55 p.m. ET (TBS), Albany
One-Sentence Synopsis: A popular upset pick could bust brackets in one of the final games of the first round.
Indiana Wins If: Trayce Jackson-Davis gets a good amount of help. We know TJD is going to fill up the box score. He always does. But will Race Thompson flirt with a double-double or finish with fewer than five points and five rebounds? Will Miller Kopp and/or Tamar Bates be feeling it from three? And will it be a good day or a bad day for the enigmatic Jalen Hood-Schifino? Indiana has yet to lose to a team outside the KenPom top 50, but it had better not take Kent State lightly.
Kent State Wins If: The defense sinks its teeth into the Hoosiers backcourt. Hood-Schifino isn't exactly turnover-prone, but he is a freshman point guard who spent the past few months playing in a conference that (aside from Northwestern and Rutgers) doesn't force many turnovers. Could be a rude awakening trying to deal with the constant ball pressure of Malique Jacobs, Sincere Carry and Co. And Kent State went 20-2 this season when forcing at least 13 turnovers.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 140. Don't quite understand this total. Both teams play at an above-average tempo and have respectable offenses averaging at least 75 points per game. Though, I suppose playing a late-night game in frigid Albany could slow down one or both of these offenses.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Indiana
Kerry Miller: Kent State
Joel Reuter: Indiana
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils
16 of 32
Matchup: No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Arizona State (West Regional)
Details: Friday at 10:05 p.m. ET (truTV), Denver
One-Sentence Synopsis: Could be a late-night spike in entertainment when the Horned Frogs battle the Sun Devils.
TCU Wins If: A strong defense neutralizes a mediocre Arizona State offense. The Sun Devils put on a show against Nevada on Wednesday night, but prior to that, they had been held to 70 points or fewer in 14 out of their last 16 games and were ranked 134th in offensive efficiency. the Horned Frogs should be able to shut ASU down well enough for Mike Miles Jr. to carry them to victory.
Arizona State Wins If: It plays a first half like it did against the Wolf Pack. Mercy. On the real, though, the key here is 7'0" Warren Washington. With Eddie Lampkin Jr. no longer on TCU's roster, the Horned Frogs are much more susceptible to getting worked in the paint. And Washington is the guy most likely to put in said work.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Arizona State +4.5. With Lampkin, TCU probably wins this game somewhat comfortably. Without him, it likely comes right down to the wire.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arizona State
Kerry Miller: Arizona State
Joel Reuter: TCU
Gambling problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/KS/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (CA-ONT), or calling 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA (select parishes)/MD/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY/CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.
No. 8 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers
17 of 32
Matchup: No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS), Birmingham
One-Sentence Synopsis: An early reminder that seeding doesn't follow predictive metrics, it'll be KenPom's No. 17 West Virginia vs. No. 23 Maryland in an 8/9 game that should be reserved for teams in the 30s.
Maryland Wins If: The offense travels for a change. Against West Virginia, 70 points probably isn't going to be enough. And while Maryland has shot it well at home, it has averaged 60.8 points in its last 13 games away from home. (59.2 if you take out the game against Minnesota.) The Terps need to get Jahmir Young going early and often.
West Virginia Wins If: Maryland's road woes continue. Since Thanksgiving, the Terrapins have won three games away from home: at Louisville, at Minnesota and a Big Ten tournament game against Minnesota. Those teams were terrible this season. And in what figures to be a physical affair, anything less than Maryland's A game won't cut it.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 137.5. There are big question marks about whether Maryland will show up, but West Virginia doesn't play low-scoring affairs. There have been a few games right around the 140 mark, but only one of its last 19 contests (a 69-61 loss to Texas) produced a total of lower than 137. In a game that will probably feature at least 40 free throws, it could be a rough afternoon to be on the under.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Maryland
Kerry Miller: West Virginia
Joel Reuter: West Virginia
No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 13 Furman Paladins
18 of 32
Matchup: No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Furman (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV), Orlando
One-Sentence Synopsis: A chivalrous affair pitting an upset-minded bunch of Paladins against the stingy defense of the Cavaliers.
Virginia Wins If: The transition D does its usual thing. Furman wants to get out and run on offense, but Virginia's defense is where fast-break offense goes to die. The Cavaliers have a terrible offensive rebounding percentage because they'd rather prevent an easy bucket on the other end. Though Virginia certainly hasn't been renowned for its offense in recent years, it should also be able to score against a subpar Furman defense.
Furman Wins If: Threes are falling. Furman actually leads the nation in two-point percentage, but the Paladins take nearly half of their shots from three-point range. Against this pack-line defense that was built in a lab to limit penetration and points in the paint, they will likely settle for more threes than usual. No one on the roster shoots better than 40 percent from distance, though, so we'll see if anyone can get hot.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Furman +6. Virginia likely finds a way to win, but it was allergic to playing in blowouts for a large stretch of the season. Twenty of the Cavaliers' regular-season games were decided by single digits, even in a down year for the ACC where they should have been able to crush quite a few teams. And the Paladins are good enough to keep this close.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Furman
Kerry Miller: Virginia
Joel Reuter: Virginia
No. 7 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 10 Utah State Aggies
19 of 32
Matchup: No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 1:40 p.m. ET (TNT), Sacramento
One-Sentence Synopsis: The Mountain West has gone 0-8 over the past three NCAA tournaments, but it will be favored against the SEC in what could be the highest-scoring game of the first round.
Missouri Wins If: It dominates the turnover battle. When it isn't getting steals, Missouri's defense is kind of awful. (The offense can be awful as well if it isn't getting easy fast-break buckets after steals.) And when it isn't committing turnovers, Utah State shoots about as well as any team in the country. When it records at least 11 steals, though, Missouri is 13-2.
Utah State Wins If: KenPom is all it's cracked up to be. No. 10 over No. 7 upsets happen all the time, but the No. 7 seed is usually at least favored. In this case, the No. 10 seed ranks 33 spots better on KenPom and should win by two possessions. However, after watching the Aggies go 0-3 against San Diego State this season, it's hard to trust them against a physical defense.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 155.5. This is a high line for a college basketball game, but it probably isn't high enough. Missouri played an 86-85 game at Tennessee earlier this season, and Utah State's road game against SDSU was an 85-75 affair. It's tough to see the winner clocking in at under 80 here.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Utah State
Kerry Miller: Utah State
Joel Reuter: Utah State
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 16 Howard Bison
20 of 32
Matchup: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Howard (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 2 p.m. ET (TBS), Des Moines
One-Sentence Synopsis: Playing in its first NCAA tournament game in over three decades, Howard merely has to figure out how to defeat the defending national champion.
Kansas Wins If: It can avoid the temptation to sleepwalk into the second round. Nothing but love for Howard, but Kansas played in 24 Quad 1 games this season and won 17 of them. Compared to that, this should be a walk in the park, so long as the Jayhawks don't get complacent in treating it as such.
Howard Wins If: It is raining threes and forcing turnovers. The Bison have three legitimate perimeter shooters in Marcus Dockery, Elijah Hawkins and Jordan Wood, and they are certainly capable of generating steals. But it's going to take a perfect storm to pull off a UMBC-level shocker.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Howard +22. I don't want any part of betting on a game that's probably going to be over by halftime, but I do suspect this is a spot where Kansas—after an absolute gauntlet of a regular season with a short rotation—takes its foot off the gas early and plays the backups for much of the second half. In the nine previous tournaments as a No. 1 seed under Bill Self, Kansas has basically split here, winning five of those first-round games by at least 23.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kansas
Kerry Miller: Kansas
Joel Reuter: Kansas
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
21 of 32
Matchup: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS), Birmingham
One-Sentence Synopsis: Four days after beating Texas A&M by 19 in the SEC tournament final, Alabama looks to do something similar to Texas A&M-CC.
Alabama Wins If: Things play even remotely to form, especially in the paint. If you subtract each team's two-point percentage allowed on defense from what it shoots on offense, Alabama is at +13.5%, while A&M-CC is at -5.4%. It's always going to take a miracle for a No. 16 to upset a No. 1, but that disparity makes it seem extra impossible.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Wins If: It mucks the game up beyond recognition. People were complaining about all of the fouls and free throws during A&M-CC's First Four game against Southeast Missouri State, but that's the way the Islanders like it. This is an outstanding free-throw shooting team, so the more time they can spend at the line scoring points and keeping Alabama from getting into any sort of rhythm, the better.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Alabama -24. The Crimson Tide are ruthless. They won eight games this season by a margin of at least 23 points, including four by 40-plus. They might pull the starters early in the second half, but head coach Nate Oats isn't going to tell the backups to take it easy.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Alabama
Kerry Miller: Alabama
Joel Reuter: Alabama
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 Charleston Cougars
22 of 32
Matchup: No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 Charleston (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 3:10 p.m. ET (truTV), Orlando
One-Sentence Synopsis: A 31-win Cinderella team is out to prove that largely feasting on cupcakes can be a good way to prepare for a deep run in March.
San Diego State Wins If: It can avoid the Mountain West curse. Charleston ranks 73rd on KenPom, and the Aztecs have gone 20-0 this season against teams 52nd or lower. This is a very good, defense-oriented team that never got traction as a Final Four candidate because everyone who covers college basketball has been burned at one point or another by putting faith in a team from the Mountain West. It's irrational, but it keeps happening.
Charleston Wins If: I've already gone back to the "well, if they're making their threes..." well for the underdog several times here, but it's particularly pertinent in this matchup. Charleston takes more than 47 percent of its shots from distance, but it only makes 33 percent of them. Meanwhile, SDSU's opponents have taken 40 percent of their shots from downtown but have made barely 29 percent of them. In theory, the Cougars figure to be throwing up a bunch of bricks. But perhaps a team with only one shooter (Ben Burnham) with a success rate north of 35 percent has a magical day.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 141.5. Charleston will want to push the tempo, but you simply don't speed up the Aztecs, who have played five consecutive games with a total of 126 or lower.
Predictions
David Kenyon: San Diego State
Kerry Miller: San Diego State
Joel Reuter: Charleston
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 15 Princeton Tigers
23 of 32
Matchup: No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Princeton (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 4:10 p.m. ET (TNT), Sacramento
One-Sentence Synopsis: One of the top candidates to win it all needs to survive an early exam against the Ivy League.
Arizona Wins If: It takes this opponent seriously. For a No. 15 seed, Princeton is surprisingly solid across the board. But Arizona is much more solid. And larger. And consistently played well against quality foes. There were more than few nights, though, where it seemed like the Wildcats just decided to not show up against a middling Pac-12 opponent. They can't afford to do that against Princeton.
Princeton Wins If: It figures out how to slow Arizona down. Even after allowing buckets, the Wildcats often find a way to get down the floor and get a shot up in under seven seconds. If they get into that rhythm, it'll be curtains for the Tigers. But if the Tigers can keep this game in the 60s or low 70s and make the Wildcats uncomfortable, settle in for a good game.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Princeton +14.5. Purdue beating Yale by 22 in the first round last year was an anomaly. You simply don't blow out the Ivy League champion. Princeton lost by two in its last two trips (2011 and 2017). Harvard won its openers in 2013 and 2014 and almost won in 2012 and 2015. Yale upset Baylor in 2016 and battled LSU well in 2019. Even Penn only lost by 16 as a No. 16 seed in 2018. If you have Arizona reaching the Final Four, don't expect a comfortable opener.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arizona
Kerry Miller: Arizona
Joel Reuter: Arizona
No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 9 Illinois Fighting Illini
24 of 32
Matchup: No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Illinois (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET (TBS), Des Moines
One-Sentence Synopsis: Let's find out what happens when an inconsistent force goes up against an unreliable object.
Arkansas Wins If: Nick Smith Jr. outduels Terrence Shannon Jr. It's going to be a fun matchup between high-volume shooters who haven't exactly been a model of efficiency. Smith missed most of the season, but he has averaged 19.5 points over Arkansas' last six games. Shannon has been held to single digits only once in his last 16 games.
Illinois Wins If: It doesn't shoot itself in the foot from distance. The Illini are terrible from three-point range as a team, connecting only 30.9 percent of the time. But they just keep shooting them, and Arkansas has a considerably above-average perimeter defense. Illinois should pound the paint and try to live at the free-throw line against a Razorbacks team that commits a ton of fouls.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Illinois +2. This should really be a pick'em. Not because I think it's going to go to overtime, but because there's no telling what you're going to get from either of these teams in any given game. If the line was Arkansas +2 instead, that would be the play. Really, though, this game is a stay away.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arkansas
Kerry Miller: Arkansas
Joel Reuter: Arkansas
No. 8 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 9 Auburn Tigers
25 of 32
Matchup: No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn (Midwest Regional)
Details: Thursday at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT), Birmingham
One-Sentence Synopsis: An Iowa team which hasn't made the Sweet 16 since 1999 is looking to avenge last year's first-round upset as a No. 5 seed.
Iowa Wins If: Auburn fails to take advantage of this defense. As far as effective field-goal percentage is concerned, Fairleigh Dickinson is the only NCAA tournament team with a worse defense than Iowa. But Auburn's offense isn't exactly potent, shooting 44.1 percent overall and 31.4 percent from three-point range with an average turnover rate. The Tigers do occasionally hit a groove, though, scoring at least 73 points in each of their past three games against Alabama, Tennessee and Arkansas.
Auburn Wins If: It snaps out of its recent funk. At least on paper, Auburn looked like a contender in late-January, sitting at 16-3 overall. But the Tigers have lost nine of their last 13 games, repeatedly struggling to gut out close ones. (Most notably, blowing a 17-point second-half lead in losing to Alabama.) The defense is solid, though, and there's enough talent to win this opener.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 151.5. In 10 NCAA tournament games under Fran McCaffery, the average total of Iowa's games has been 150.6. And this is, by no small margin, the worst defense that he has ever taken to the Big Dance. Assuming Auburn can actually make anything, this one has 82-80 written all over it.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Auburn
Kerry Miller: Auburn
Joel Reuter: Iowa
No. 5 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
26 of 32
Matchup: No. 5 Duke vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts (East Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS), Orlando
One-Sentence Synopsis: The Cinderella story from 2021 looks to make short work of Jon Scheyer's first trip to the NCAA tournament as a head coach.
Duke Wins If: The defense holds Max Abmas in check. Oral Roberts has one of the top offenses in the country, averaging north of 84 points per game, and Abmas took over during that magical run two years ago. But Duke has been darn good on defense, particularly as of late, allowing just 62.9 points during its nine-game winning streak. A game played in the 60s or low 70s would clearly favor the Blue Devils.
Oral Roberts Wins If: Abmas shines and Connor Vanover owns the defensive paint. Duke is big, but the 7'5" Vanover is bigger and has been one of the best shot-blockers in the nation, only slightly behind Duke's Dereck Lively II. While a low-scoring game would figure to benefit Duke, Vanover could make it especially low scoring for a Duke team that hasn't shot anywhere near as well as usual for the season.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Oral Roberts +5.5. Duke is red hot, but Oral Roberts is the most dangerous No. 12 seed. This line really should be Duke by three, so you're getting a few bonus points if you back the Golden Eagles.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Duke
Kerry Miller: Duke
Joel Reuter: Duke
No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders
27 of 32
Matchup: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Colgate (Midwest Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:25 p.m. ET (TBS), Des Moines
One-Sentence Synopsis: Colgate can protect you from cavities, but facing Texas these days is like getting a root canal.
Texas Wins If: It gets physical and doesn't get flustered. Colgate does a few things very well, but also has some major weaknesses. Its defense is subpar, it rarely gets offensive rebounds, it is terrible from the free-throw line and it is not comfortable in a rough-and-tumble game. Texas needs to capitalize on those areas and keep this one from coming down to the wire.
Colgate Wins If: It catches fire and stays on fire. Colgate leads the nation in effective field-goal percentage, and we all saw early in the 2021 tournament game against Arkansas or in the "third quarter" of last year's opener against Wisconsin what can happen when the Raiders' shots are falling. The trick now is doing it for more than 10 minutes against an even better opponent.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 150.5. Betting the under in a game involving the best-shooting team in the country might be a mistake, but Texas has held four consecutive opponents (including Kansas twice) to 60 points or fewer, with an average total of 125 in those games. The Longhorns did allow 116 in regulation in an early January loss to Kansas State, so I don't love risking money on this defense. It feels like the play, though.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Texas
Kerry Miller: Texas
Joel Reuter: Texas
No. 7 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 10 Boise State Broncos
28 of 32
Matchup: No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Boise State (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:35 p.m. ET (truTV), Sacramento
One-Sentence Synopsis: Not exactly a clash of March Madness titans, with Northwestern playing in just its second Big Dance and Boise State looking to amend an all-time record of 0-8 in the tournament.
Northwestern Wins If: Assist rates hold to form. The way to beat Northwestern's defense is ball movement. Swing it around until you get an open three. Opponents tally an assist on 61.0 percent of made field goals. But Boise State has the worst assist rate among tournament teams at just 43.0 percent. It's more inclined to try to beat the opposition off the dribble. That could end in disaster for the Broncos.
Boise State Wins If: Northwestern has one of its too frequent poor shooting performances. The Wildcats shot 37.5 percent or worse 11 times this season, including three games under 30 percent. And while Boise State doesn't force many turnovers, it does have one of the most efficient defenses in the country and has gone 12-1 when holding opponents below 40 percent shooting. (The lone loss was an overtime game at San Jose State in which Boise choked down the stretch.)
If I Had to Bet on Something: Boise State +1.5. Betting in favor of the Mountain West in March is a good way to be broke before the second round, but Boise State should be slightly favored as opposed to the slight underdog. You could always go straight to the +105 Boise State moneyline, but, come on, you know Northwestern is winning by one if you do that.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Boise State
Kerry Miller: Northwestern
Joel Reuter: Northwestern
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky Norse
29 of 32
Matchup: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky (Midwest Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TNT), Birmingham
One-Sentence Synopsis: Houston's march to hometown advantage in the Final Four will begin in Birmingham for a game in which it has to travel farther (567 miles) than the No. 16 seed (402 miles).
Houston Wins If: It doesn't have its worst shooting performance of the season. Houston goes through brutal cold spells on offense. Three points in an 8.5-minute stretch of the season finale at Memphis, followed by nine points in the final 11:45 of the first half against East Carolina and a six-minute stretch with only two points in the AAC championship game against Memphis. It shouldn't be a concern in this game, but it could be a problem at some point in the tournament.
Northern Kentucky Wins If: It somehow wins the turnover battle to an outrageous degree. For the year, Houston is plus-147 in turnovers, so, it's unlikely. But Northern Kentucky's one big, VCU-like or Stephen F. Austin-like strength is forcing turnovers. The Norse average 9.4 steals per game and could make things interesting if Houston has already set its sights on the Iowa-Auburn winner.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Houston -19. With the status of Marcus Sasser (groin) unknown, you might view this as a stay-away game. But in 13 games this season against teams outside the KenPom top 150, Houston's average margin of victory is 32.0 points. This is not a team that plays with its food. Houston devours its food.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Houston
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Houston
No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 13 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
30 of 32
Matchup: No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Louisiana (East Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET (CBS), Orlando
One-Sentence Synopsis: A Tennessee team leaking oil down the stretch attempts to rally for a convincing win over the caliber of opponent it routinely blew out during the regular season.
Tennessee Wins If: The Zakai Zeiger-less defense holds up. If you count the Arkansas game in which the star point guard tore his ACL early in the first half, Tennessee's defense has allowed 57, 79, 55 and 79 points. The Vols had the most efficient defense in the country was Zeigler was healthy, but now it's a whack-a-mole situation where two of the three worst performances came in the past two weeks.
Louisiana Wins If: It scores at least 63 points. It's not quite a guaranteed win, but it's a guaranteed loss if the Ragin' Cajuns don't get there. Tennessee is 20-0 when holding opponents below 63 points and just 3-10 otherwise. And if the defense is compromised, ULL certainly can score. It averages 78.0 points per game and ranks top 60 in offensive efficiency.
If I Had to Bet on Something: ULL +11.5. Let's put it this way: KenPom says this should be a 11-point game, and it doesn't account for injuries. Had Tennessee drawn Kent State or Iona, everyone would be picking the 13-over-4 upset. As is, this should at least be a close game.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Tennessee
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Joel Reuter: Tennessee
No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions
31 of 32
Matchup: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Penn State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:55 p.m. ET (TBS), Des Moines
One-Sentence Synopsis: Opposites attract, and we should get a very attractive game when those polar opposites of offensive game plan take the floor.
Texas A&M Wins If: Size and brute strength reign supreme. Texas A&M is one of the best in the nation at manufacturing points via offensive rebounds and trips to the free-throw line. If Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford can draw some fouls against a backcourt with minimal depth and/or if Henry Coleman and Julius Marble clean up against a Penn State frontcourt with minimal size, that's a big edge for A&M.
Penn State Wins If: Finesse and ball control reign supreme. As good as A&M is on the offensive glass and the free-throw line, Penn State is even better at avoiding turnovers and making field goals. And the Nittany Lions come into this game on fire, winners in eight out of their last 10 and just one shot away from winning the Big Ten championship.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Penn State +3. Texas A&M is probably going to win, as Penn State went 0-3 against Purdue, which leads the Big Ten in both offensive rebounding and free-throw rate. That physicality is Penn State's kryptonite. But the Nittany Lions have played in eight consecutive games decided by four points or fewer and will likely find a way to make this a game that isn't over until it's over.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Penn State
Kerry Miller: Texas A&M
Joel Reuter: Texas A&M
No. 2 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 15 UNC-Asheville Bulldogs
32 of 32
Matchup: No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 UNC-Asheville (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 10:05 p.m. ET (truTV), Sacramento
One-Sentence Synopsis: UCLA looked good in the Pac-12 tournament without Jaylen Clark (Achilles) and should ease its way into the NCAA tournament with this late game in California.
UCLA Wins If: The nation's best defense shuts down a mediocre offense. UNC-Asheville has one star whom we'll get to momentarily. As a whole, though, the Bulldogs don't win the turnover battle or rebound margin and have only two scorers you need to worry about. Even with Clark no longer available, shouldn't be much of a problem for this D.
UNC-Asheville Wins If: Drew Pember loses his ever-loving mind. Asheville's 6'11" shot-blocking, foul-drawing stretch 5 has as many 40-point performances as he has had single-digit outputs this season (two of each). In three games played in the Big South tournament, he shot 41-of-47 from the free-throw line. And with the status of Adem Bona (shoulder) up in the air, UCLA is going to have either two or three players taller than 6'7" available. He could foul out the entire Bruins frontcourt.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 135.5. If Pember and Taijon Jones are on fire from distance, this one isn't happening. But the way UCLA plays, this is more likely to be a 70-55 game than an 80-65 game.
Predictions
David Kenyon: UCLA
Kerry Miller: UCLA
Joel Reuter: UCLA
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
