Is It Time to Hit the Panic Button on the Dallas Mavericks?

The Dallas Mavericks are 3-7 in their last 10, .500 on the season and pushing their fans closer to a panic button—that they probably don't need to hit just yet).

After a four-point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday, they're now outside the top six and only 1.5 games clear of 11th place. Finishing outside the top 10 would mean a season ending without even appearing in the play-in tournament.

For a team that entered 2022-23 with an over-under of 48.5 wins and a six percent chance to win the championship, according to FiveThirtyEight's projection system, a 34-34 record through 68 games is undeniably a disappointment.

And that disappointment has been made all the more complicated by the acquisition of Kyrie Irving and his expiring contract.

When he's on the floor with Luka Dončić, the Mavs cruise to the tune of plus-9.2 points per 100 possessions, but neither played in Saturday's 112-108 loss. And since Irving entered the lineup, Dallas is minus-3.5 points per 100 possessions when either or both Dončić or Irving aren't playing.

If all these trends continue and Dallas goes fishin' before the playoffs even start, the possibility of Irving leaving for nothing in free agency will loom large.

And honestly, even if the Mavericks make a little noise in the postseason, there's no telling what Irving will do. Free agency can be unpredictable for any NBA player, but Irving has a history of unexpected or otherwise unusual exits from the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics and most recently, the Brooklyn Nets, from whom he demanded a trade in February.

If he ultimately walks, Dallas will have given up a solid playmaker in Spencer Dinwiddie and its best perimeter defender in Dorian Finney-Smith (both of whom are under contract next season), a 2029 first-round pick and multiple second-round picks for nothing.

And on that hypothetical timeline, you have to wonder about the patience of Dončić. Like it or not, that's the nature of today's NBA. If a young superstar on his first or second contract doesn't appear to be meaningfully moving toward a championship or, at least, contention, the vultures in the media or opposing front offices and fan bases will start circling.

Even if Dončić isn't causing any noise himself, it'll be there. At the very least, it'll be a distraction that could follow him throughout a contract that runs through 2026-27.

Distractions often evolve into something more. Again, it's just today's NBA. And if Dallas enters the 2023-24 season with Dončić, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dāvis Bertāns as its three highest-paid players, it'll be hard for anyone to argue it's meaningfully moving toward a championship.

But those are bits and pieces of the worst possible outcome. And even with only 14 games left in the regular season, it's not quite time to push that panic button.

First of all, Irving's absence on Saturday was the result of foot soreness. It's not an issue that should keep him out for a big chunk of time. And a recent MRI on Dončić's thigh injury reportedly came back "clean," meaning we should see him in action again too.

And generally speaking, when those two are in action, the Mavericks have an unstoppable attack.

There aren't a lot of perimeter players, even in the NBA, who command double-teams all over the floor. Irving and Dončić both can. Except, well, opponents can't afford to deploy that defensive strategy when both are in the game.

If either has the opportunity to attack a rotating defense or even the opposition's second-best perimeter defender, the results are almost always going to favor the Mavs.

So far, that's exactly how it's played out. The 82 points Dončić and Irving combined for in a win over Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers earlier this season is sort of the outlier example of success, but Dallas is scoring a whopping 124.2 points per 100 possessions when both stars are on the floor.

Of course, those two can't play all 48 minutes. And the lack of depth and defense in Dallas means the minutes without either or both will be rough, but they don't have to be as bad as they've been.

Before an injury knocked him out of the rotation in late January and early February, Christian Wood had started 16 straight appearances and averaged 20.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 2.3 threes while shooting 36.7 percent from three in those starts. When he and Dončić started together, the Mavericks were 9-4.

Since he returned from the extended absence, his minutes have been sporadic, at best. And a cynical observer of the situation and Jalen Brunson's departure last summer might wonder if Wood's role (or lack thereof) might be the product of something Draymond Green mentioned in a recent episode of his podcast.

"Basketball fans, if you actually understood the business, if you took the time to actually learn the business, your outlook on it would be totally different." Green said to Dallas center JaVale McGee (at 48:48). "... You would better understand guys' rotations. All of the sudden, this guy isn't playing because he's on a contract year, and the team wanna lower his number. They can get away with it."

Wood is indeed in a contract year. And the numbers he was putting up as a starter might command a pretty substantial payday, but if the Mavericks want to avoid the doomsday timeline laid out above, they have to have their best players on the floor as much as possible.

And beyond the traditional stats above, the advanced numbers also show that Dončić, Irving and Wood are this team's three best players.

Having all three share the floor will put some distance between the fans and that aforementioned panic button. Putting a little more trust in a third talent would make it easier to assemble a rotation that doesn't completely fall apart without one of the superstars too.

At the very least, it's time to hit the serious button.

Dallas has one of the West's easier remaining strengths of schedule, but that shouldn't warrant conservative injury timelines and head-scratching substitution patterns. Now is the time to make a push.

And if the Mavericks can get into the playoffs in one piece, there's no telling where they can go from there.

The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets seem to have established their own top contenders tier, but Dallas would at least be a dark horse.

We're less than a year removed from Dončić (with an assist from Brunson) carrying his team to the conference finals. He has seemingly impossible career playoff averages of 32.5 points, 9.3 rebounds and 7.9 assists. His new teammate, Kyrie, has averaged 23.3 points in the postseason and hit one of the biggest shots in NBA Finals history on the way to the 2016 championship.

With those two, Dallas has a chance to boast the two most productive players in any individual series.

That's often enough.