NBA MVP Ranking: Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokić Are Starting to Separate from the Pack
It has been a minute since we last cobbled together an MVP ladder. In fact, it's been many minutes—more than a month.
So...let's do another one!
Helped along by injuries to key stakeholders like Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, the tippy top of this race has started to solidify itself into an inarguable, immovable clique. The would-be winner has, on most nights, even started to feel like a formality.
And yet, the race itself isn't over. Not even close. About one-quarter of the season remains, and the margins separating the top four or five candidates are thin enough for the order to change.
In many ways, the field is already undergoing meaningful renovation. We have a new second-place finisher reporting for duty, as well as a handful of fresh faces appearing in the overall top 10 for the very first time.
Before we soldier onward, my usual reminder: These rankings reflect a snapshot in time—what my ballot would look like if the season ended before Monday night's games. Recent performances carry a ton of weight within discussions for each player, but this is still a season-long evaluation at its heart and will not be entirely subjected to spur-of-the-moment swings that are implicitly unsustainable.
Let's rank.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 6
10. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
9. James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers
8. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
7. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Quibble over the six through 10 spots as you wish. The not-so-hard truth: It doesn't much matter. Nobody in this space is catching up to the top four or five.
Seeing SGA, Lillard and LeBron will throw some for a whirl. "Their teams are chasing Western Conference play-in spots!"
To anyone bellowing that trope: Please, for the love of everything, get over it. Three losses separate the fourth-place Phoenix Suns from the 13th-place Oklahoma City Thunder. Citing seeds as defining factors rings hollow.
Players who routinely appeared in this space but have missed significant time with injury were officially bounced from consideration. Booker snuck his way back in, because, um, he's really good. And neither Donovan Mitchell nor Ja Morant played well enough since the last ladder to retain their places.
Kevin Durant will have some time to work his way back into #TheDiscourse after he debuts for the Suns on Wednesday. Stephen Curry and Zion Williamson are probably out of luck. Harden's awesomeness has flown fully under the radar for some reason, although he did himself zero favors in Saturday night's showcase loss to Boston.
Lillard and Gilgeous-Alexander have the best shots at marching into the top five before season's end. SGA is about to miss some time, so that'll sting. But as I've written ad nauseam here, the degree to which he's dominated and helped reinvent the Thunder offense cannot be overstated.
Dame has gone nuclear since the last ladder. Through 19 appearances, he's averaging 39.4 points while canning over 41 percent of his triples and almost 96 percent of his free throws.
It isn't just his 71-point detonation against Houston on Sunday night floating this sudden ascent. Dame's entire body of work, really, has bordered on spectacular this season—a should-be spectacle somehow flying under the radar, maybe even within the Blazers organization itself, which has watched him dazzle all year yet still decided to do jack-you-know-what at the trade deadline.
5. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
2 of 6
Last Ranking: 5
Jayson Tatum's MVP case has ostensibly peaked around fourth and fifth place after scorching-hot perception to begin the regular season.
In the interest of total transparency, I don't have a great reason why.
Tatum's overall effectiveness has not waned. He is averaging 29.6 points, 10.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists since the last MVP ladder, all while downing 50.0 percent of his twos and 36.4 percent of his threes. His defensive value remains pristine, perhaps even understated. The Boston Celtics still insulate him, somewhat, against taxing superstar assignments, but his reads and reactions and capacity to stamp out entire possessions away from the ball is exhaustive.
Dinging Tatum for the quality of talent around him doesn't sit right. It's also not like the Celtics are annihilating people without him. They are a plus-1.2 points per 100 possessions when he sits, with an offense that verges on hopeless.
Something less than total dependence is probably Tatum's biggest roadblock. He is not Boston's primary maestro, though his passing has yet again improved. Voters and MVP-ladder blogpeople are inherently more drawn to the responsible-for-everything candidates.
This isn't totally fair. Tatum is the best player on what is, right now, the league's best team. That is both an oversimplification of the MVP case and must also count for something. His defense is too easily overlooked, as well—much like stand-out defense in general.
For me personally, in what is admittedly a hairline separator, it's the variability in Tatum's performances. He has inoculated himself against vanishing acts when the jumper isn't working; his free-throw volume is at an all-time high. But there is still a volatility to his returns.
That free-throw volume can implode on any given night, and he has turned in more than his fair share of one- or two-for-a-whole-lot clips from beyond the arc. Defenses don't seem as inclined to throw the kitchen sink at him. That speaks to the threat levels of those around him, but in a race this tightly stacked, it is nevertheless something for which much be accounted.
4. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
3 of 6
Last Ranking: 2
Tumbling down two spots does not represent a material change in Luka Dončić's importance to or performance for the Dallas Mavericks. It is more indicative of the rise from those around him at a time when, by his standards, he's slogging through something of a slump.
Dončić has hit fewer than 34 percent of his threes and under 70 percent of his free throws since the last MVP ladder, during which time the Mavs have lost the minutes he's played. His overall availability through this stretch, meanwhile, was tamped down by ankle and heel issues.
Kyrie Irving's arrival is not responsible for much, if any, of the dip. There has been some functional awkwardness, at times, but Dallas is winning the duo's minutes. More importantly, playing four games together isn't nearly enough for Kyrie to negate Dončić's body of work before the organization gave him a legitimate co-star.
Whether this becomes a longer-term issue remains to be seen. Dončić's efficiency will crescendo, because, well, he's Luka Dončić. And the Mavs won't continue to register as a net-negative with him the floor for the rest of this season. But Kyrie can, theoretically, play well enough to remove Luka's "Wow, look at him go it alone!" sheen.
Fans and media voters alike are smart enough to separate the two. MVP front-runners play beside co-stars all the time—including right now. But Dallas' defense hasn't been pretty during the Irving-Dončić minutes, and their respective utility when displaced off the ball at the other end has been even less so.
Maybe growing pains and a feeling-out process won't cost the Mavs any games. (Their collapse against the Lakers on Sunday begs to differ.) Perhaps the voting populous can see through it if they do. It will be much harder to ignore the spotlight Kyrie's arrival casts over the flaws and shortcomings of both the roster at large and Dončić himself.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
4 of 6
Last Ranking: 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting to bed any and all concerns that he might be slipping on the offensive end. He's downing over 60.6 percent of his twos since the last MVP ladder, and his true shooting percentage is on the cusp of climbing back above 60 for a fifth consecutive season.
Counting stats, of course, remain a non-issue. Giannis is averaging 31.3 points, 12.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists. The Milwaukee Bucks' below-average offense has acted as a demerit, but the responsibility he's needed to shoulder largely goes overlooked. Giannis has surpassed Luka Dončić as the NBA's highest-usage player, and Milwaukee's offense comfortably eclipses league average efficiency with him in the lineup—even when he's playing with only one of Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton.
Availability may soon work against Giannis. He has logged fewer total minutes than anyone on this list and barely places in the top 100 of court time after dealing with quad and wrist injuries. But he's on track to play Tuesday, and the quality of his availability trounces any issues with the volume behind it.
Defense, like usual, remains his great equalizer. Nobody within the MVP field wears as many hats, and Joel Embiid is the only one who rivals his importance.
Giannis' steal and block rates are down, but his effectiveness is not. He continues to rove and disrupt, and his straight-up erasure is more of a lifeline than ever. He has not spent this much combined time guarding first or second options since 2019-20, according to BBall Index.
2. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
5 of 6
Last Ranking: 5
Joel Embiid appears to be tracking toward a third straight top-two finish on the MVP ballot. And while victory may elude him yet again, he remains a worthwhile selection even if you're leaning toward someone else.
The big man's numbers continue to make zero sense. He is averaging 33.1 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 blocks on a bonkers-high 64.1 true shooting
Maintaining this blend of volume and efficiency melts the mind. Embiid may play beside another superstar, but James Harden has not streamlined life in a way that will cannibalize MVP consideration.
The Philadelphia 76ers run everything through their 7-footer. Their approach to Saturday night's nationally televised showdown against Boston was telltale of how they plan—and must play—to contend for a title. They leaned on Embiid, and he largely delivered. Almost nothing Boston deployed fazed him, including Al Horford and double-teams galore.
Embiid is used to this treatment by now. His dominance seldom comes across as effortless. Everything feels like a grind. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only high-rep player who sees double-teams on a larger share of his possessions, and his 37.2 usage rate ranks third, behind Antetokounmpo himself and Luka Dončić. Philly is barely treading water in the minutes Harden logs without Embiid. It is a plus-7.6 points per 100 possessions when the roles are reversed.
Busting up Embiid's offensive flow has never been harder—or, rather, less possible. There remain moments of sloppiness, but they are just that: flickers and flits. He's coughing up possession on just 4.9 percent of his post-ups, which is easily the best mark of his career.
Through it all, Embiid remains the life force through which Philly survives on defense. And he has, somewhat quietly, put the availability concerns to rest; he has now racked up more total minutes on the season than Giannis. All the while, he's remained on course to win his second straight scoring title, a feat not accomplished by a center since—well, since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bob McAdoo in the 1970s.
1. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
6 of 6
Last Ranking: 1
Nikola Jokić is basically breaking basketball at this point. Anyone uncomfortable with it needs to sit out the MVP discourse altogether.
There are levels to his dominance—wrinkles that don't get talked about or noticed as frequently. Yeah, we all know he's averaging a triple-double (24.8 points, 11.7 rebounds, 10.0 assists). Did you also know he's doing so on what qualifies as the league's best true shooting percentage?
Most have probably realized or been alerted to Jokić's unreal net rating swing. The Denver Nuggets are 26.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor—the largest increase among everyone who has logged at least 125 minutes. Less discussed, though equally important: He owns the NBA's best crunch-time plus-minus.
Adjusting the stakes from traditional clutch play—final five minutes in which no team is ahead or behind by more than five points—doesn't diminish his value. Only Harrison Barnes has notched a better plus-minus in the final two minutes of one-possession games. And Jokić retains the top spot in the final minute of one-possession tilts—while helping Denver to a league-leading 16-5 record in those situations.
Crunch-time success can be inherently random. Jokić's overall dominance is not. Pick your favorite catch-all metric. He probably lords over the field in it. His absolutism is such that he's even eradicating voter fatigue. He finished first, by a mile, in the latest straw poll from ESPN's Tim Bontemps.
Skeptics can what-about-playoff-success until they're a suffocatingly deep shade of blue in the face. The MVP is a regular-season award. And even if you're so inclined to factor in playoff performance, be it as a tiebreak or part of a disingenuous agenda, you're not going to find much cover. Because another not-so-widely-acknowledged non-secret? Jokić is averaging 26.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.4 assists on 60.7 true shooting through 48 postseason games.
An MVP outlier, he is not.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Monday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
