3 Burning Questions for Each MLB Division In 2023
A lot will be different about Major League Baseball in 2023, but not the divisions. There's still six of them, and the championship for each can still only go to one of five teams.
As for how each race will pan out, well, that depends on how various questions get answered.
We've lined up three for each division—i.e., 18 in total—that get at what could make or break the top contenders' aspirations for first place. These mostly concern the health and/or productivity of individual players. Others address what you might call more conceptual matters.
Let's start in the American League East and end in the National League West.
American League East
1 of 6
For the New York Yankees: Who's Going to Help Aaron Judge Carry the Lineup?
It's fair to have concerns about the Yankees' pitching depth, both in their starting rotation and their bullpen. But lest anyone forget, it wasn't the arms that let the club down amid its second-half slide and meek exit from the playoffs in 2022.
The bill that came due concerned an offense that was way, way too reliant on AL MVP and setter of prestigious records Aaron Judge. There's no better way to get a sense of how much the 6'7", 282-pounder towered over other Yankees hitters (figuratively in this case) than by looking at batting runs:
By this measure, Judge was four times as productive as Matt Carpenter, who's now gone. As the Bronx Bombers otherwise made no new additions to their offense, another 99-win season may only be in the cards if Judge has another monstrous year or if somebody does better than he did last season. Heck, probably multiple somebodies.
For the Toronto Blue Jays: Will the Bullpen Be Less Leaky?
Some numbers mostly say that the Blue Jays bullpen was effective in 2022. It put up a perfectly respectable 3.77 ERA and even landed in the top 10 for wins above replacement.
But then there are the numbers that give validation to the general feeling of unease that set in whenever Toronto went to its pen last season. Its relievers allowed a bunch of contact and blew 27 saves, so it wasn't the biggest surprise when a bullpen meltdown facilitated the end of the club's season in the American League Wild Card Series.
Despite all this, the Blue Jays didn't overhaul their pen during the winter. The hope for better things in 2023 is pretty much all on Erik Swanson, the lone newcomer, and former top prospect Nate Pearson, who's set to be a full-time reliever. No pressure, guys.
For the Tampa Bay Rays: Will Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe Boost the Offense?
The Rays got a gut punch last week when ace right-hander Tyler Glasnow was lost for six-to-eight weeks with an oblique strain. But they know from last season that their staff can survive without him, as it put up a rock-solid 3.41 ERA even though he pitched all of 6.2 innings.
The Rays had bigger problems on offense, ranking 11th in the AL in both home runs and runs. Injuries to Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe had a lot to do with that. After hitting 39 home runs in 2021, the latter was a non-factor for 65 games. The former went from hitting .331 through 28 games to just .245 over his next 55, with a pause for hamate surgery in the middle.
As both players are now fully healthy, better things will await them and the Rays offense as a whole if they stay that way. Nonetheless, "if" is the operative word there.
American League Central
2 of 6
For the Cleveland Guardians: How Much Do They Need More Power?
The Guardians may have won 93 games and the AL Central crown last season, but they didn't fit the mold of a modern contender in at least one respect. They just didn't hit the ball over the fence, ranking 29th in all of MLB with 127 home runs.
Newcomers Josh Bell and Mike Zunino should help push that needle forward in 2023, but the Guardians still figure to favor a get-'em-on, get-'em-over, get-'em-in style of offense. And knowing that the one they used in 2022 ran largely on putting the ball in play and stealing bases, the new action-oriented rules could favor them more than most.
The playoffs, though, could stand to be a different story. As the Yankees reminded the Guardians by out-homering them 9-3 in the American League Division Series last year, the long ball tends to rule the day in October.
For the Chicago White Sox: Can They Survive Another Injury-Plagued Year?
The White Sox came in well under expectations in finishing with a mere .500 record last season. The reasons for that were many, and disappointing performances and Tony La Russa's managing were certainly among them.
Nothing, though, was more destructive than the injuries. The White Sox were basically never fully healthy at any point in the season, with seemingly every one of their core players spending time on the injured list at some time or another.
True, there's no way to avoid injuries. But teams can at least prepare for them, and whether the White Sox did that amid a relatively quiet winter—they really only added Andrew Benintendi and Mike Clevinger—is debatable. Should the injury bug come back for more bites, it'll be a test their depth may fail once again.
For the Minnesota Twins: Can They Keep Byron Buxton Healthy?
Over the last three seasons, there's been a fairly solid predictor for whether the Twins will win on a given day. It has to do with whether Byron Buxton is in their starting lineup:
- With Buxton: 98-82
- Without Buxton: 89-115
As for whether Buxton really is that good, well, yeah. He ranks 18th among position players in WAR since 2020 even though he's played in only 192 games. Everyone else ahead of him has played in at least 319 games.
The Twins could therefore find themselves firmly in the driver's seat in the AL Central if Buxton can enjoy what would be his first healthy season since 2017. But that depends on him and, by extension, how effectively Michael A. Taylor spells him in center field when he needs a break.
American League West
3 of 6
For the Houston Astros: How Much Will They Miss Justin Verlander?
Not much went wrong for the Astros as they won 106 games and the World Series in 2022. But if it's a question of what went the most right, well, even they probably didn't anticipate Justin Verlander putting up a 1.75 ERA in 175 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery.
But now the three-time Cy Young Award winner is gone, having taken his Cooperstown-bound arm with him to the New York Mets. The Astros didn't bother to replace him, perhaps because they assumed replacing a 1.75 ERA and 175 innings was impossible anyway.
That might indeed have been the case, but it already looks like an issue that the Astros didn't even try. Sans Verlander and with Lance McCullers Jr. already hurting again, their rotation isn't looking quite like the all-powerful unit that posted a 2.95 ERA last season.
For the Seattle Mariners: Does the Offense Go Deep Enough?
The Mariners, meanwhile, are beginning 2023 looking rich in pitching. Their starting foursome of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray and George Kirby is as good as any, and there's enough power in their bullpen to rival the danged tesseract.
Their offense, on the other hand, doesn't attract such glowing reviews. It was fifth in the AL in home runs last season, but only eighth in runs. And while slugging right fielder Teoscar Hernández will help improve things in 2023, the only other new additions to the lineup this winter were defense-first second baseman Kolten Wong and post-prime DH AJ Pollock.
Jarred Kelenic carrying his spring breakout over to the regular season may therefore be more necessity than luxury for the Mariners. Without that, the foursome of Julio Rodríguez, Ty France, Eugenio Suárez and Hernández may have too much on their shoulders.
For the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers: Who Gets More Out of Their Big Stars?
It really does feel like a coin flip as to whether the Angels or the Rangers are the better bet to give the Astros and Mariners a run for their proverbial money this season. The two clubs mirror each other in having significant upside and equally significant downside.
Look in the direction of Anaheim, and you'll see Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Look at Arlington, and you'll see Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jacob deGrom. Those are six huge names, and either trio is perfectly capable of spearheading a playoff push.
But this, of course, depends on the name value and the on-field value of those guys actually aligning. Health will be the deciding factor there, especially for Trout, Rendon and deGrom (who's already had an injury scare this spring) given how much time they've missed over the last two seasons. In any case, it'll be another year to forget for both teams if the big names don't post.
National League East
4 of 6
For Atlanta: How Much Will They Miss Dansby Swanson?
With Dansby Swanson out there for 162 games' worth of good power and Gold Glove-winning defense, Atlanta got more WAR out of shortstop than any other team in 2022. Things were quite good, in other words.
But now Swanson is on the North Side of Chicago, and in his place is Vaughn Grissom. He's a 22-year-old who jumped from Double-A to the majors last year, where he started strong but eventually found his way to the bench. As such, one can hardly blame FanGraphs' projections for penciling Atlanta in for 24th place in WAR from shortstop this year.
In third base coach Ron Washington, Grissom nonetheless has a heck of a teacher working with him on his transition to shortstop. And in light of Atlanta's recent track record with young hitters, it might be fair to assume the aforementioned projections are overly bearish.
For the New York Mets: How Much Will They Get out of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer?
Verlander and Max Scherzer have some big numbers between them, including five Cy Young Awards, 445 wins and 6,391 career strikeouts. But for anyone counting from home, they've also been alive for 78 combined years.
This invariably raises the question of how many starts the Mets can count on from the 38-year-old Scherzer and the 40-year-old Verlander, and it might be best to set the bar even below the 51 total outings the two aces made last year. Only six teams this century have gotten that many starts from 38-plus hurlers in a season, and none since the 2013 Yankees.
Every start that Verlander and Scherzer can't make is one that will be handled by the David Petersons and Tylor Megills of the Mets pitching staff. Solid hurlers, but not exactly all-time greats. That may well be the difference in what should be another tight race with Atlanta.
For the Philadelphia Phillies: How Soon Can Bryce Harper Return...and Be Himself?
Nobody seems to be giving the Phillies a chance to beat Atlanta or the Mets in the NL East race, but that's OK. As there was while they were finishing 14 games behind those clubs last season, there's a palpable "Just Get in the Playoffs" energy surrounding the Phillies.
Yet even a long-game outlook for the Phillies isn't without questions, and chief among them is the timeline for Bryce Harper's return from Tommy John surgery. He's purportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery, but the All-Star break is still the sensible target.
Even then, there will be a whole new question of what the Phillies can fairly expect from the two-time MVP. Because while he did eventually get hot in the playoffs, he had previously been cool at the plate in his return from a two-month absence following thumb surgery last year. In 35 games to finish the regular season, he hit just .227 with three home runs.
National League Central
5 of 6
For the St. Louis Cardinals: Is the Rotation a Ticking Time Bomb?
Starting pitching was not one of the Cardinals' primary strengths last year. Despite solid seasons from Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas, the unit as a whole ranked 26th in strikeouts-per-nine and 20th in WAR.
And yet the club's front office settled for doing nothing over the winter. The Opening Day rotation will thus consist of Wainwright, Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz. Their average age is 33. Wainwright, Montgomery and Matz have had Tommy John surgery. Mikolas was injured for all of 2020 and most of 2021. Likewise, Flaherty has missed most of the last two seasons.
This is to say that Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Jake Woodford and Connor Thomas had better be ready when they're needed. Because in all likelihood, they will be.
For the Milwaukee Brewers: Is a Christian Yelich Comeback Actually Going to Happen?
The Brewers have trotted out some good teams in the last three seasons, but all three have missed a very big something that their clubs of 2018 and 2019 had going for them: the MVP-caliber version of Christian Yelich.
With their offense looking a tad thin around Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez, it sure would be helpful if this version of Yelich returned in 2023. To this end, the vibes are currently quite good. Yelich came into camp in a good head space and has gotten hot accordingly with a 1.545 OPS in four games.
But if you're sensing that you've seen this movie before, you have. Yelich put up a 1.357 OPS in the spring of 2021 only to go on to author the second of three straight mediocre seasons, finishing with a .736 OPS and nine homers in 117 games. If that happens again, Milwaukee's ceiling for 2023 can only go so high.
For the Chicago Cubs: Sure, They'll Defend. But What About Hit?
The Cubs signaled with a $310.5 million splurge in free agency that they want to be the third contender in the NL Central this season. If there's one reason to believe they can do it, it's because their defense should be world-class.
With Tucker Barnhart at catcher, Swanson at shortstop, Nico Hoerner at second base and Cody Bellinger in center field, the Cubs have three Gold Glovers and another Gold Glove-caliber defender up the middle. Good things to have under any circumstances, to be sure, but especially under ones involving new rules that should reward good defenders.
But especially with Willson Contreras now with St. Louis, is this offense any better than the one that finished 11th in the National League in runs scored a year ago? Maybe if Bellinger turns his own clock back to the Yeli vs. Beli days of yore, but that would seem a long shot even if his .599 OPS for the spring wasn't sitting right there as a warning.
National League West
6 of 6
For the Los Angeles Dodgers: Who Will Be the Heroes This Year?
For anyone who's been preoccupied with other things over the last few months, the Dodgers lost not just Bellinger to free agency, but also Trea and Justin Turner and Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. Oh, and Gavin Lux tore his ACL last week.
Even for a team coming off the ridiculous heights of a 111-win season, this is a lot to overcome. And since the Dodgers didn't exactly flex their financial muscle in spending just $53.3 million, they're going to need as much as they can get from unlikely sources.
If not from hopefully refurbished veterans like J.D. Martinez and Noah Syndergaard, then from guys they've developed from within, such as Dustin May, Miguel Vargas and top pitching prospects Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller. To get anywhere close to 111 wins again, it may have to be all of the above.
For the San Diego Padres: What Will They Get from Fernando Tatis Jr.?
The Padres may have finished 22 games behind the Dodgers in 2022, but it's not just you if you favor them to win the NL West this season. Per FanGraphs, they have a 62.3 percent chance of doing exactly that.
Ah, but this is in part contingent on favorable projections for Fernando Tatis Jr. He's pegged for 36 home runs, 24 stolen bases and 5.1 WAR. Basically, more of the same of what he did in his first three seasons with the Padres.
That, of course, was before his performance-enhancing drug suspension. And shoulder surgery. And two wrist surgeries. And a move from shortstop to the outfield. Nothing is impossible, but to ask Tatis to immediately return to superstardom is asking a lot.
For the San Francisco Giants: Is Their Ceiling Any Higher Than Their Floor?
The Giants have been on some kind of whirlwind over the last two years. They won 107 games in 2021! And then just 81 in 2022. Then they nearly signed Aaron Judge! But didn't. Then they actually signed Carlos Correa! Only not.
It might therefore come as a surprise that the same projections that are high on the Padres are also somewhat bullish on the Giants, putting them down for 84 wins. Which isn't totally unreasonable, given that they added stability to their rotation with Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea and upside to their offense with Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto.
Harder to see is how the Giants might go beyond 84 wins to challenge the Dodgers or Padres. Because absent Judge or Correa and with a massive hole left by Carlos Rodón's departure, the 2023 version of the Giants doesn't look so much better than the 2022 iteration as [waves hands] a different style of just OK.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
