Panic Meter for NBA's Fringe Playoff Hopefuls
The stretch run of the 2022-23 NBA season is here, which means playoff hopefuls are almost out of time.
No more knocking the rust off, ramping up or finding form. If these squads situated between contenders and tankers are going to make something of the season, they have to get a move on.
The panic-meter groupings will be based on two main factors: where we think the team in question will finish in the playoff picture, and how that team should feel about that position relative to its own expectations. If you came into the year expecting a top-four seed and are instead sitting 11th in the conference, that's a recipe for major panic.
That creates a bit of a sliding scale, but it's the only rational way to approach this. The Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic began the year with vastly different aims, for example. So although they have a roughly equal shot of making the play-in round, their respective panic-meter readings have to be different.
Clubs that may fall short of expectations despite being built to win now will be the most panicked, especially if they're over-leveraged and don't have great ways to pivot toward a rebuild if they wind up in the lottery or earn a long-shot play-in spot. Low panic readings belong to up-and-coming clubs that may or may not finish in the top 10 (and probably don't care either way). These teams are young, developing on or ahead of schedule and are basically playing with house money.
Medium falls somewhere in between. We're talking concern and perhaps some disappointment, but not full-blown freakouts.
Prepare the deep-breathing exercises and locate the stress balls. It's time to talk panic.
Panic Meter on Low: Eastern Conference
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Indiana Pacers
When Tyrese Haliburton went down with a knee injury on Jan. 11, the Indiana Pacers were sitting pretty at sixth in the East, miles ahead of where they probably thought they'd be in a rare (soft) rebuilding season. By the time Haliburton returned from his 10-game absence on Feb. 2, the Pacers' 1-9 record in his absence had knocked them all the way down to 11th.
Currently stationed at No. 12 and far less motivated to scramble for play-in position than many of their competitors, the Pacers won't be bothered by a long summer and a lottery pick.
With nearly two months left in the season, Indy has already blown past its preseason over/under win total of 23.5 wins. Haliburton is an established All-Star and one of the best young players in the game, Myles Turner is locked down on a team-friendly extension, and Bennedict Mathurin is likely to finish among the top three in Rookie of the Year voting. In possession of oodles of cap space, the Pacers also have financial flexibility this offseason.
If Indiana makes a run and earns itself an 83rd game (or even a playoff series), great. But if it lingers just above the East's worst two or three teams in the standings for the rest of the year, nobody will be all that bothered. A better-than-expected regular season was just a bonus and a hugely positive sign for the future, which was always the top priority anyway.
New York Knicks
Defensively "meh" all year and particularly underwhelming on that end as of late, the sixth-seeded New York Knicks have still shown enough scoring punch, depth and resiliency to land in our lowest panic tier. That might not assuage all of the anxiety in a fanbase that has often seen seasons with playoff hopes go up in smoke over the last two decades, but New York's overall position feels stable.
The Miami Heat are a decent bet to overtake the Knicks in the standings, but the Brooklyn Nets shipped out two superstars prior to the trade deadline. The likely slippage for the currently fifth-seeded Nets gives New York some cushion. It may need it, as cold opponent three-point shooting has masked some serious defensive flaws.
The Knicks rank fourth in opponent effective field-goal percentage on the season, but they rank 17th in expected effective field-goal percentage based on the types of shots they allow. Regression to the mean on that front could be a problem.
Regardless, the Knicks should hold onto that sixth spot fairly easily as long as Jalen Brunson stays healthy. Continued "this guy's gonna get a statue built outside MSG" efforts from Josh Hart wouldn't hurt, either.
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are situated similarly to the Pacers. They've won more games than most expected to this point in the season and are led by their own blossoming star.
Top overall pick Paolo Banchero had Rookie of the Year sewn up sometime in November. He's the Haliburton equivalent here, although perhaps the Duke product has even more upside due to his developed 6'10" frame and already advanced scoring chops. We've only seen eight players aged 20 or younger roll into the league and put up at least 20 points per game as rookies. Banchero is in line to be the ninth.
The Magic differ from Indy in that they've actually heated up of late. Orlando started with a brutal 5-20 mark but went 19-15 after that to hit the All-Star break at a wholly respectable 24-35, only four games out of a play-in spot.
With Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. joining Banchero as clear long-term starters with All-Star upside and a chance to have two 2023 lottery picks due to a top-four-protected first-rounder potentially coming from the Chicago Bulls, Orlando is positioned to have it both ways in 2023-24. It'll enjoy growth from its core that should put a playoff spot in reach while adding even more young talent to the program.
Making the postseason doesn't matter much for the Magic. They don't need to finish among the top 10 in the East to validate what they're building. This team quietly has one of the strongest long-term outlooks in the league.
Panic Meter on Low: Western Conference
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Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder distinguish themselves from their low-panic East counterparts in Indiana and Orlando in a key way: They have a legitimate shot not only to make the play-in round but also to improbably climb into the top six.
That has to register as a shock for everyone who thought the Thunder would once again give major minutes to their youth and shut down any overachieving veterans who were producing a few too many wins to their maximize lottery odds. Instead, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has spent the season floating around the edges of the MVP conversation while several prospects chip in around him. The Thunder have been too good to tank.
Case in point: Oklahoma City has the third-best net rating in the league since Jan. 1, trailing only the Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers, two teams that certainly won't appear in any postseason panic discussions.
The only possible way to frame OKC's plight as panic-inducing is to consider the impact of its success on the draft. Another win total in the teens could have landed the Thunder a top-three pick. But they're are almost too young as it is, and that's before getting 2022 No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren back next year.
Throw in as many as four first-rounders in 2024 and three in 2025, and Oklahoma City shouldn't be concerned about picking in the middle of the first round this summer, especially if it gets a chance to expose SGA, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey and the rest of its young core to the intensity of postseason action.
Utah Jazz
Slotted first in the conference as late as Nov. 21 and boasting a .500 record until dropping to 27-28 in early February, the Jazz have spent most of the season blowing away expectations. But a slow slide that has them out of the play-in picture by a slim margin shouldn't cause any angst. If anything, the Jazz should have some misgivings about the hot start that cost them premium lottery position and a 14.0 percent chance to land surefire first pick Victor Wembanyama.
It's hard to get too disappointed in a team that has traded virtually every key starter from 2021-22 and got so much young talent in return that it was too good to tank. With said trades bagging them nine extra first-round picks and two more swaps between now and 2029, the Jazz have more than enough draft equity to add non-Wembanyama prospects for the rest of the decade.
Utah has a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, and Lauri Markkanen has proved he can run hot enough to win games on his own for a few weeks at a time. But a deadline deal that sent out Jarred Vanderbilt, Mike Conley and Malik Beasley further depleted the team's veteran influence and removed three of the Utah's top six players in total minutes, replacing them with virtually nothing.
In light of that talent drain, the Jazz will likely settle into position just ahead of the West's true tankers in San Antonio and Houston. A top-five pick still might be in play.
Utah fans got Markkanen's emergence, 50-plus games of competitive basketball and heaps of future picks to drool over. Whatever happens from here, it won't include panic. More like earned satisfaction.
Panic Meter on Medium: Eastern Conference
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Miami Heat
Good cases exist for the Miami Heat belonging in the low-panic section or even sitting out of this exercise completely. They're six games clear of the 11th spot and may only be a strong week or two from climbing as high as fifth in the East. The Heat aren't in any real danger of falling apart.
With that said, these guys finished first in the conference last year, made the Finals in 2020 and typically operate in title-or-bust mode. With that profile, a good shot to finish sixth and avoid the play-in can't be construed as success.
History says you need to finish third or better in your conference to have a real shot at a championship. The Heat went into the All-Star break sitting seven games behind the No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers. Nothing about their performance to date, defined in large part by anemic offense, says the Heat can make up that gap.
If Miami isn't necessarily panicking, it should at least be a little bummed.
Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors didn't lose their cool at the trade deadline, despite strong suspicions that they'd deal as many as four starters to initiate a rebuild. There are worse decisions than putting faith in the same cast of characters that won 48 games last season, even when that victory total seemed unrealistic as early as November this year.
Jakob Poeltl should shore up a shoddy interior defense that lacked size, and Fred VanVleet looked more like himself in January (20.6 points, 7.3 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game on 56.5 percent true shooting) than he did during a painfully slow start. All of the length and versatility that has defined Toronto for the last few years remains.
With Brooklyn likely to slide, the Atlanta Hawks still failing to find their form and few credible threats from below the play-in section of the standings, the Raptors are likely to finish in the 7-10 range. It wouldn't be a total shock if they heated up and stole the sixth seed. That's not ideal after last year's fifth-place finish in the East, but the disaster potential of entirely missing the postseason now seems minimal.
Washington Wizards
It's hard to get inside the heads of the Washington Wizards' brain trust, which complicates the expectation-based portion of this exercise.
Yes, the ridiculous extension that the Wizards gave to Bradley Beal and the broad refusal to trade veterans who might get away in free agency (Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porziņģis) suggests a consistent win-now bent. But the irrationality of an approach that might as well be the official blueprint for how to stay on the mediocrity treadmill makes this tricky.
The Wizards are a little more likely to finish 10th than 11th in the East, which should be viewed as a success for a team with this level of talent. But Washington was probably aiming for something better and is failing in a big-picture sense by tying itself to a roster that lacks upside or flexibility.
What do you do with a team that makes personnel decisions as if it's a contender, plays roughly break-even ball and sneaks into the play-in with a first-round knockout as its best possible outcome?
From Washington's skewed perspective, that fate should inspire moderate panic. Missing the play-in entirely, which remains a real possibility, would be a disaster. But from the outside, the Wizards' costly, dogged pursuit of these low-end postseason slots should trigger widespread despair.
Panic Meter on Medium: Western Conference
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Dallas Mavericks
It's unusual for a team to come out and say it's desperate, but the Dallas Mavericks didn't have to verbalize anything to clearly communicate that fact.
"By their actions in trading for Irving, the Mavericks showed they are feeling the pressure to keep Luka Dončić happy, even with three-and-a-half years left on his contract," ESPN's Tim Bontemps recently wrote. "For a team with its own limited pool of trade assets, moving two of its most valuable—a top-tier three-and-D player (and great locker room presence) in Dorian Finney-Smith, plus an unprotected first-round pick in 2029—for a player who can be an unrestricted free agent this offseason was a massive gamble."
It's hard to know which future scenario is scarier: Irving re-upping on a long-term deal that keeps Dallas on the hook for three or four years of whatever distractions and unavailability he brings, or Irving walking away and leaving Dončić wondering where all of his help went.
The aforementioned years left on Dončić's contract insulated the Mavs from the worst potential outcomes, and the Irving-enhanced offense should be productive and exciting. Dallas has a decent shot to score its way to a top-four seed. That's why the panic level isn't quite at its max yet. But a tough stretch or another instance of Irving failing to show commitment to his team could move the needle in a hurry.
Golden State Warriors
The further they meander through this sleepwalk of a season, the Warriors make it clearer and clearer that they viewed last year's championship as true validation of their dynasty. They proved one last time that they could put it all together, silencing the critics that buried them after the disastrous end to the 2019 Finals.
It's no wonder that their play this season—marred by turnovers, late-game collapses and ill-advised fouls in abundance—has slipped. It took everything to reach their improbable goal last year. This season's letdown is just the predictable trough that follows a peak.
There's certainly motivation to make another run during the late primes of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. The Warriors wouldn't have traded James Wiseman to bring back Gary Payton II if they intended to mail in the rest of the season and take a longer view of the team's future. But it's also hard to ignore the feeling that, perhaps subconsciously, the Dubs are coasting in a post-title grace period.
The Warriors have seen too much and overcome too many obstacles to ever rank as a high-panic team. And they should feel good about their chances against the Memphis Grizzlies or Sacramento Kings in the first round if they catch the right seed or advance out of the play-in.
New Orleans Pelicans
Injuries up and down the roster, particularly to superstar forward Zion Williamson, have submarined the New Orleans Pelicans' season. So while it's disappointing to see them fighting to climb out of the play-in section of the standings after sitting third in the West as recently as mid-January, poor health offers absolution.
Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum have played only 355 possessions together this year, compiling an obscenely good plus-19.5 net rating in their limited reps. In light of that number, the Pels can credibly blame bad health luck for everything that has gone wrong.
It should terrify New Orleans that Williamson is once again going to miss a massive chunk of the season. Every time he adds another lower-body injury to the list, it becomes more difficult to believe he'll ever stay healthy throughout a full campaign. But that's a different source of panic, a big-picture issue not necessarily attached to the team's 2023 playoff fate.
New Orleans knows how well the operation works when its key players are on the floor, but full-strength stretches have been few and far between. If they miss the postseason or flame out in the play-in, the Pelicans will be disappointed. But at least they'll have reason to believe next year and the ones after it can be much better.
Panic Meter on High: Eastern Conference
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Atlanta Hawks
When you fire your head coach with 20-something games left in the season, it's a pretty good sign of panic. Even before the Atlanta Hawks canned Nate McMillan (who tried to can himself earlier this year, per Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium), these guys were locked into a spot here.
Atlanta spent lavishly to re-sign De'Andre Hunter, adding him to a starting forward combo alongside the apparently untradeable John Collins, who's only on the second year of his five-year, $125 million deal. Add to that the three first-rounders sent out for Dejounte Murray, plus Trae Young's supermax contract kicking in this season, and you have a franchise hellbent on winning immediately.
Eighth-seeded Atlanta thus can't be pleased with where it currently stands.
McMillan's departure came after a front-office shakeup that smacked of nepotism and cronyism. With two major levers already pulled—management and coach—there aren't many options left. If the Hawks don't deliver on the hype they generated with their surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals two years ago, this situation has the potential to become equal parts hopeless and ugly.
Chicago Bulls
With all due respect to the Hawks and Toronto Raptors, the Chicago Bulls have to rate as the biggest disappointment in the East.
Built around costly stars Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, they came into this season hoping to contend for one of the top spots in the conference. Instead, they currently sit 11th after a six-game losing streak took them into the All-Star break.
Already out one first-rounder (which became Franz Wagner) to the Orlando Magic due to the disastrous Nikola Vucević trade, the Bulls will send hand over another first in the 2023 draft unless it falls inside the top four. That locks Chicago into a roster that can only realistically be altered via blockbuster trade. That LaVine and DeRozan lasted through the deadline suggests either a frigid market or an internal unwillingness to acknowledge that this iteration of the team has run its course.
The panic here isn't so much attached to whether Chicago will finish sixth or eighth or 10th. It's more profound than that.
The Bulls should be fretting most about the potential bleakness of the next few years.
Panic Meter on High: Western Conference
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Los Angeles Lakers
Urgency defines the Los Angeles Lakers. They're led by 38-year-old all-time scoring champ LeBron James, whose remaining prime might best be measured in months. They never know when a strong three-week stretch from Anthony Davis will be interrupted by injury, and they also just traded away one of their only two available first-round picks for three veteran rotation players.
James called the 23 post-All-Star-break contests left on L.A.'s schedule "the most important games of my career for a regular season," per Joe Vardon of The Athletic. Hyperbolic as that assessment seems, if James' framing of the stretch run doesn't signal win-now desperation, nothing does.
The Lakers exited the break ranked 13th in the West, two full games back of 10th and three-and-a-half behind the sixth-seeded Mavericks. An easy schedule will help, and deadline moves brought badly needed shooting and playmaking to the rotation. But Los Angeles' top two stars remain injury risks, and even with an improved roster, it's difficult to have much faith in a 27-32 team with a negative point differential.
If James misses his second straight postseason, it'll be catastrophic.
Minnesota Timberwolves
You don't give up a half-decade's worth of draft picks for a 30-year-old center if you're focused on a long-term window, so it'd be an exceptionally bad look if the future-mortgaging Minnesota Timberwolves missed the postseason.
Currently slotted eighth but only one-and-a-half games clear of 11th, the Wolves can't be feeling good about how Year 1 of the Rudy Gobert experiment has gone. Karl-Anthony Towns' calf injury is a valid excuse for some portion of the team's middling performance (31-30 at the break), but this was a team that many expected to be a dominant force in the regular season. Fifty-five wins seemed attainable with Gobert anchoring the defense and the KAT-Anthony Edwards combo keying a top-10 attack.
The Wolves went into the break with a 15-9 mark since Jan. 1, and they're allowing only 108.7 points per 100 possessions with Gobert on the floor, a figure that would rank ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers' league-best defensive rating (109.3). Those are positive signs that indicate Minnesota is probably going to avoid falling out of the play-in round altogether, and maybe the team's trend line will angle up even more sharply as it continues to integrate Gobert and gets Towns back from his injury.
A climb as high as third in the West isn't out of the question. Nonetheless, the mere possibility that the Wolves could stumble down the stretch after spending so lavishly to build an immediate winner means their panic meter is stuck on high.
Portland Trail Blazers
Is Damian Lillard's patience infinite? If so, the Portland Trail Blazers have less to worry about as they bumble around the low fringes of the play-in mix.
But if Portland fails to improve its position significantly over the final quarter of the 2022-23 season, Lillard and the front office may have to entertain some uncomfortable thoughts.
Jerami Grant is due to hit free agency this summer, and the team already has $86.6 million committed to Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkić next season. Avenues to improvement are few, especially with prized rookie Shaedon Sharpe at least a year or two away from making a real impact. If Portland falls short of the play-in or even if it makes it and fails to advance, a season designed to give Lillard a shot at contending will have been a clear failure.
From there, everything could be on the table, from a Lillard trade to a complete overhaul of the rest of the roster.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Feb. 23. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
