Bold Predictions for the Rest of the 2022-23 NBA Season
With just over 20-ish games to go before the 2022-23 regular season comes to an end, there's plenty to keep an eye on with so much activity at the trade deadline and some extremely close playoff races.
Will Kyrie Irving help push the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals, or will this team miss the playoffs altogether? Will the recent hot play from the New York Knicks last? Are we seeing the end of Dame Time in Portland? Nikola Jokić has the MVP award wrapped up, right?
It's time to take a look at seven spicy predictions as the 2022-23 NBA season enters the final stretch.
Kevin Love Will Be a Major Factor for Miami Heat
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A ton of talent has hit the buyout market following the trade deadline, with names like Reggie Jackson, John Wall, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Ross, Danny Green and others all becoming free agents. Russell Westbrook could soon join this list as well.
The most recent was veteran power forward Kevin Love, who had fallen out of the Cleveland Cavaliers' rotation over the last month. Love disagreed with this decision, per Jason Lloyd of The Athletic, and as a free agent this summer, wanted to be in a spot where he could prove he can still play at age 34.
That spot officially became Miami, as ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Love would sign with the Heat.
While his almost nine years in Cleveland ended poorly, there's a tremendous opportunity for Love to thrive now in Miami.
The Heat have needed help at power forward ever since P.J. Tucker left in free agency to join the Philadelphia 76ers, and they did nothing to address this weakness at the trade deadline.
Having Love fall into their laps, either as a starter or key contributor off the bench, is a huge get for Miami.
Love's rebound rate of 20.2 percent would rank seventh overall in the NBA if he had enough minutes to qualify, as he remains one of the best glass-cleaners the league has ever seen. The Heat rank just 16th overall in rebounding this season (49.8 percent), with Bam Adebayo serving as the only member pulling down more than six a game.
Now almost an exclusive three-point shooter on offense, Love is making 35.4 percent of his threes this season despite playing through a hairline fracture in his right thumb. Given that he's now had 12 games to rest, there's no reason why Love can't return to his career mark of 37.2 percent (or better).
Miami could also use Love in its recruiting efforts, as Westbrook is his former college teammate at UCLA.
Given his playoff experience, still high-level rebounding and outside shooting, Love will make a big impact in Miami's climb up the East standings.
New-Look Lakers Will Make the Playoffs
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A 2-10 start to the season seems like a lifetime ago, a stretch where Russell Westbrook was still (briefly) starting and guys like Matt Ryan, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Wenyen Gabriel and Damian Jones were playing significant minutes.
Thanks to a brilliant performance by Rob Pelinka leading up to the trade deadline, this is the best Lakers roster since the one that spent three months at Disney World.
Still below-.500 at 27-32 and sitting at 13th in the West, time is running out to make a late playoff push, however.
Thankfully, the format that LeBron James blasted in the past is now the Lakers' best (and probably only) path to reach the postseason.
Los Angeles is just two games out of the play-in tournament, needing to leapfrog both the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz and at least one of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans.
From there, the Lakers would need to win twice as a No. 9 or 10 seed, or just once as the No. 7 or 8 seed, to officially get in.
While the pre-deadline Lakers may not have had a chance, this team is far different.
We saw this in a pre-All-Star break 120-102 win over the New Orleans Pelicans, one where newcomers like D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt were already in the starting lineup.
While the defense looked stout, perhaps the best sign for Los Angeles was that James was needed for just 29 total minutes and didn't even have a great night (21 total points, 0-of-5 from three, four turnovers).
With so much help now surrounding James and Anthony Davis, both superstars can save some energy for the play-in tournament, one where they'd be one of the most talented teams to ever take part.
The Lakers will make the play-in tournament, win and eventually reach the playoffs.
This Will Be Damian Lillard's Final Season with the Trail Blazers
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At some point, Damian Lillard's patience has to run out.
With the Trail Blazers currently sitting at 12th in the West at 28-30 overall, even making the play-in tournament looks difficult despite a brilliant season from Lillard. The All-Star guard is averaging a career-high 31.4 points on 46.7 percent shooting overall, along with 4.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists in his 36.2 minutes.
For 11 years and under the eye of multiple general managers, this roster simply hasn't been good enough to win a title. The offseason trade for Jerami Grant was a terrific start, but the Blazers needed a big trade deadline to make sure this Portland team even makes the playoffs.
Instead, the Blazers punted on the present for the future again, this time moving veteran starting small forward Josh Hart to the New York Knicks for Cam Reddish and a protected first-round pick. Matisse Thybulle and Kevin Knox were also brought in, with Gary Payton II, a key summer signing, sent out after playing just 15 total games in Portland.
So, what exactly is the plan?
While he hasn't expressed it publicly, Lillard should be furious.
Again he's forced to watch as those competing for the same eight playoff spots in the West get better. The Phoenix Suns with Kevin Durant. The Dallas Mavericks with Kyrie Irving. The Los Angeles Lakers with D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Mo Bamba and Rui Hachimura.
So many other teams are better built to win now, while franchises like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs may soon pass Portland up with their collection of young talent, future draft picks or both.
Again, where is Lillard's help? Reddish, Thybulle and Knox certainly aren't enough.
Assuming the Trail Blazers miss the play-in tournament, don't be surprised if Lillard finally requests a trade from his only NBA home. No one, even those in Portland, could blame him.
James Wiseman Will Show Star Potential with Pistons
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It became painfully clear this season that James Wiseman simply wasn't going to reach his potential with the Golden State Warriors.
While the No. 2 overall pick of the 2020 draft actually started 27 of his 39 games for the Warriors as a rookie, Wiseman came off the bench in all 21 of his contests this season.
With the Warriors in championship-or-bust mode with knee surgery limiting Wiseman to just 60 total games in his first three seasons, the 21-year-old simply needed more time on the court to avoid a bust label.
The Detroit Pistons, dead last in the East at 15-44 overall, will provide Wiseman with the opportunity that he needs.
A strong debut in Detroit (11 points and five rebounds on 5-of-9 shooting in 24 minutes) is just the beginning of his career revival. The court time already represented Wiseman's second-highest of the season, time that should only go up as he gets more comfortable in Dwane Casey's system.
Wiseman has always tantalized us with his size (7'0", 240 pounds) and skill set. He's got elite defensive potential with an ability to protect the rim and has the mobility to thrive in zone settings as well.
When given time with the Santa Cruz Warriors this season, Wiseman averaged 18.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and shot 68.4 percent overall in 27.6 minutes.
After a rocky start with the Warriors, Detroit is a perfect spot for Wiseman to truly begin his career.
Knicks Are Among NBA's Hottest Teams to Finish Season
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While they currently sit at sixth overall in the East, don't be surprised if the Knicks end the final stretch of the season with one of the best records in the league.
Since Dec. 4, New York is fifth overall in offense (117.9 rating) and sixth in net rating (plus-4.7), with a defense that should only get better when starting center Mitchell Robinson returns from thumb surgery.
While the Knicks didn't land a superstar at the trade deadline, swapping Cam Reddish and a protected first-round pick for Josh Hart was a smart move, one that's already paying dividends.
Besides being a friend and former college teammate of starting point guard Jalen Brunson, Hart is an ideal player to plug into a playoff rotation with everything he brings to the table. Beyond being one of the best rebounding wings in the NBA, Hart is a talented scorer from all three levels and a capable playmaker. He improved the Portland Trail Blazers by 9.1 points per 100 possessions this season (91st percentile, per Cleaning the Glass).
In three games with the Knicks, Hart is already averaging 17.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.7 steals, all while knocking down 64.3 percent of his threes.
With Julius Randle making the All-Star Game and Brunson playing like one himself, New York is now one of the deepest teams in the NBA by swapping Reddish (who was out of the rotation) for Hart.
While the Knicks may not catch the Cleveland Cavaliers for the fourth seed (currently 4.5 games behind), New York should overtake the Brooklyn Nets to settle at No. 5 overall.
No team will want to face these red-hot Knicks in the playoffs, a good team that is quickly becoming great with the addition of Hart.
Mavericks Will Miss the Playoffs
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Can the Mavericks add one of the most talented players in the NBA next to Luka Dončić and actually get worse?
If that player is Kyrie Irving, and getting him costs Dallas its best defender, then yes.
The Luka-Irving duo is off to an 0-2 start together, with defense being a predictable problem. The Mavs have given up 133 and 124 points in the two losses, showing that the team desperately misses Dorian Finney-Smith.
Dallas isn't going to have any problems generating offense with Dončić and Irving, and one can cover for the other if minor injuries pop up. That being said, the Mavericks needed to make a counter move at the deadline, perhaps a rim protector or another big-bodied wing to take the place of Finney-Smith.
Dallas sits just two games above .500 at 31-29 overall, hanging on to the sixth seed by a half game over the New Orleans Pelicans. In total, there are six teams two games or under behind the Mavericks, with the new-look Los Angeles Lakers sitting three-and-a-half games back.
If the Mavs have a bad week, they could easily go from No. 6 to No. 12 in no time.
Teams like the Pelicans (Zion Williamson), Minnesota Timberwolves (Karl-Anthony Towns) and Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry) should have reinforcements coming before the playoffs begin as well.
This doesn't bode well for Dallas, a team with real defensive issues and a center rotation that is among the worst in the league.
There's also the overwhelming fear now of losing Irving in free agency this summer, in what would be a devastating blow after Jalen Brunson walked the year before.
The Mavericks will ultimately fall back into the play-in tournament, where they may need to get by fully healthy Warriors or Lakers teams in one-game series.
No one can fault the Mavs for gambling on a talent like Irving, but their lack of moves to put the right pieces around him and Dončić will ultimately be the team's downfall.
MVP Race Will Come Down to Final Game of the Season
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Averaging a triple-double and guiding your team to the best record in the conference should be a lock to win someone an MVP award right?
Most seem to agree, as Nikola Jokić is the betting favorite and was the overwhelming leader in ESPN's Tim Bontemps's straw poll. Jokić received 77 of the 100 total first-place votes, thanks to his averages of 24.7 points, 11.5 rebounds and 10.1 assists per game.
The Nuggets have opened up a five-game lead on the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies, with Jokić leading most major advanced stat categories as well.
With that being said, no one should be ruling out Joel Embiid's or Giannis Antetokounmpo's chances just yet.
Embiid could once again lead the NBA in scoring and is currently second at 33.1 points per game. His Philadelphia 76ers are just three games out of first place in the Eastern Conference, and he'll have plenty of motivation to win the award after finishing second to Jokić a season ago.
No team has been hotter lately than Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks, however, as 12 straight wins have them just a half game behind the Boston Celtics for first. Antetokounmpo is third in the league with 31.8 points a night, and he was putting up 37.2 points, 13.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists during Milwaukee's win streak before injuring his wrist right before the All-Star break.
While Jokić is the favorite for now—and he could very well win his third straight award—this race won't be decided anytime soon.
With all three players' teams competing for the No. 1 seed in their conference and putting up eye-popping numbers, the Jokić-Embiid-Antetokounmpo MVP race of 2023 will be one for the ages.
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