NFL MVP 2023: Award Candidates, Odds and Predictions
Super Bowl 57 will most likely feature the NFL Most Valuable Player award winner.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was at the forefront of the MVP discussion until he sprained his shoulder in Week 15.
Hurts' two-week absence in Weeks 16 and 17 opened the door for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to take control of the MVP conversation.
Hurts and Mahomes are expected to finish first and second in the MVP voting, which will be revealed Thursday night during the NFL Honors ceremony.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson are the other three finalists.
Allen, Burrow and Jefferson all had impressive seasons, but none of them led their respective teams to the No. 1 overall seed in their conferences.
Mahomes and Hurts should be rewarded for leading their respective teams to the tops of the AFC and NFC. The only debate left is which quarterback is more deserving of winning the award.
The most recent betting odds for the MVP can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook.
1. Patrick Mahomes
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Patrick Mahomes already has one MVP award to his name.
The Pro Football Writers Association named the Kansas City quarterback its MVP on January 25.
The PFWA MVP and NFL MVP have been the same player for the last two decades. The last difference between the two voting memberships came in 2003, when Jamal Lewis won the PFWA and Peyton Manning and Steve McNair shared the NFL MVP, which is organized by the Associated Press.
Mahomes is more than deserving of landing his second-career MVP award. He posted a single-season high of 5,250 passing yards with a wide receiver group that was less talented than the one he had a year ago.
Kansas City used a collection of wideouts, led by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, to replace Tyreek Hill, and Mahomes found a way to get the best out of that unit.
Of course, Mahomes still had Travis Kelce to work with at tight end. Kelce was the Chiefs' top pass-catcher with 1,338 yards.
Mahomes likely won the MVP in the final few weeks of the regular season. He padded his passing totals in wins over the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders while Jalen Hurts sat out for two weeks.
Mahomes finished the regular season with 10 more total touchdowns than Hurts and as the NFL leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns and passing yards per game.
The final vote may be close between Mahomes and Hurts, but he should come out on top against his Super Bowl foe.
2. Jalen Hurts
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Jalen Hurts' lack of a MVP award should not tarnish the season he had.
The Eagles signal-caller threw for 22 touchdowns and ran for 13 more to lead the Eagles to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The argument in Hurts' favor for MVP is that the Eagles lost in Weeks 16 and 17 because he was not on the field. Gardner Minshew filled in against the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. The Eagles competed with the Cowboys in Week 16 but then produced just 10 points in a home defeat to the Saints.
If Hurts was on the field for those two games, he may have had smaller gaps in certain categories to Mahomes that MVP voters could justify to take him over the Chiefs quarterback.
The two-game gap allowed Mahomes to break out in front of Hurts and relegate him to a collection of second-place votes.
Hurts should finish well ahead of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Jefferson because of the dynamic play with his arm and legs.
Hurts had 3,701 passing yards and just six interceptions to go along with his 22 scoring throws. He produced 760 yards on the ground as well.
There is still a 789-yard gap between Hurts' pass and rush combination and Mahomes' passing yard total. That is likely too much of a difference for the voters to justify placing Hurts over Mahomes.
Hurts could win NFL Offensive Player of the Year. He, Mahomes, Jefferson and Tyreek Hill are the finalists for that award.
3. Justin Jefferson
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Justin Jefferson was the most dynamic non-quarterback in the NFL this season.
Jefferson led the league with 128 receptions and 1,809 receiving yards for the Minnesota Vikings.
The third-year player had 10 100-yard performances, and he had six games with 10 or more receptions.
Without Jefferson, the Vikings offense would be significantly worse, and that thought should lead voters to place the wide receiver behind Hurts and Mahomes.
He should beat out Allen and Burrow for third place because neither quarterback set career highs in passing yards. Allen had 124 fewer passing yards than he did in 2021, and Burrow's passing-yard total dropped by 136 compared to last season. Jefferson improved his receiving-yard total by 193.
The LSU product was already named PFWA Offensive Player of the Year, and he could pick up the same award on Thursday night.
He could receive a stray first-place vote, if that voter wants to vote for a non-quarterback, but most of the ballots should have Jefferson behind the two Super Bowl quarterbacks.
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