Predicting the NFL's Most Surprising Cuts of the 2023 Offseason
The upcoming NFL offseason will see its fair share of players being released from their contracts to clear roster space and, most importantly, to free up finances. While many of these cuts will see past-their-prime veterans get tossed into the free-agent pile, there are some talents coming off career-best campaigns who could also wind up on the open market.
Salary cap issues can lead to teams making some tough cuts and it seems each year there are plenty of surprises heading into a new league year. Players who seemed secure in their roster spot for providing valuable contributions have been shockingly released in the past and that isn't likely to change in 2023.
With that in mind, here are five potential cuts that may surprise you this offseason.
Contract and cap figures courtesy of Spotrac.
Carl Lawson, Edge, New York Jets
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At his best, Carl Lawson is a strong talent on the edge who can be challenging for opposing quarterbacks to deal with. He racked up 7.0 sacks this past season—the second-best showing of his career—and started all 17 games, but could wind up looking for a new home this offseason.
Lawson did his best to return to form after missing the entire 2021 season with a ruptured Achilles. He suffered the injury just months after signing a sizable three-year, $45 million contract to bolster Gang Green's pass-rushing capabilities.
While he rebounded nicely, the 27-year-old may not be worth the ample cap room his expiring deal is set to take up in 2023.
Releasing Lawson would save $15.3 million in cap space and incur only a $300,000 dead cap hit. With the Jets needing to shore up several areas to stay competitive following a disappointing end to a year that started with so much promise, that money could be better allocated to other areas.
A fully healthy Lawson would be a decent value at that price, but his injury history and dip in efficiency following his injury could render the edge-rusher expendable.
According to JetsXFactor's Michael Nania, Lawson created pressure on 14.3 percent of pass-rushing snaps between 2017 and 2020, the fourth-best rate amongst qualifying players. His 11.3 percent pressure rate in 2022 was a noticeable dip and a career-low for the Auburn product.
With Lawson providing little value outside of pressures, it will be difficult for New York's brass to justify keeping him for the final year of his deal. Even with him playing a position of critical importance in the modern game, it's worth noting that the team should be able to find an adequate replacement in a few months.
According to the latest Bleacher Report Scouting Department big board, 23 of the top-150 prospects this year are edge defenders, making it a perfect time for the Jets to move on from Lawson and secure a younger, healthier and lower-priced replacement through the draft.
Mitch Morse, C, Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills were one of the Super Bowl favorites all season and went into the playoffs with high hopes of winning a championship. The team wound up being exposed in the Divisional Round and may need to make some drastic moves to shore up its weak points this offseason.
One of those decisions could involve cutting an offensive lineman who just made his first Pro Bowl appearance.
Center Mitch Morse has been with the Bills since 2019 and recently signed a contract extension that could keep him on the roster through the 2024 season. However, his time could be at an end if Buffalo decides to take some extreme measures to not only free up salary cap space, but also bolster the offensive line.
Morse has a lofty $11.2 million cap hit for the upcoming season, but the team could save $6.2 million by releasing him.
While Morse did earn his first ever Pro Bowl nod, he scored a middling 61.4 PFF grade for allowing three sacks and taking three penalties across 765 offensive snaps. The 30-year-old hasn't once earned above a 66.3 PFF score during his stint in Buffalo.
Head injuries have also been a long-standing problem for Morse and cost him time again in 2022. Morse missed four games in 2023 due to his latest concussion issues. During his absence, the Bills had an explosive 254-yard rushing performance—their top ground game of the campaign—against the Chicago Bears.
After Buffalo's ground game fizzled out in the playoffs—the squad mustered just 64 yards on 19 carries in its season-ending loss to the Cincinnati Bengals—it could be time to cut costs and go a different direction.
The Bills could utilize the draft to find Morse's successor, but they may have a replacement in-house already. Ryan Bates, who has displayed versatility to play anywhere on the interior of the offensive trenches and filled in for Morse as the team's backup center this past season, could slot over to the center position on a full-time basis going forward.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
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The Cincinnati Bengals offense sputtered out at an inopportune time during the 2023 NFL playoffs. The team notched just 20 points in its AFC Championship Game defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs, a loss that could lead to some significant personnel changes this offseason.
Joe Mixon, the Bengals star running back since he was selected by them in the second round of the 2017 draft, could be one of the big names that the team parts ways with before the 2023 campaign.
Mixon began to show signs of decline in 2022. The 26-year-old rushed for an average of just 58.1 yards per game, his fewest per contest since his 2017 rookie campaign. While he did contribute a career-high 441 receiving yards, his nine total touchdowns were a noticeable drop from the 16 scores he notched last year.
His usage dramatically decreased during Cincinnati's three-game playoff run as well. Mixon saw 65 percent of the offensive snaps during the regular season, but he was on the field for just 45 percent of the team's offensive plays in the postseason.
WCPO's Marshall Kramsky noted that the Bengals can save over $10 million by designating Mixon for a post-June 1 release.
While the Bengals aren't too cash-strapped and have most of the current starters on both sides of the ball under contract for 2023. they do have to start thinking about an extension for superstar quarterback Joe Burrow. He's due for a deal that will almost certainly make him one of the highest-paid players in league history.
Given Mixon's decline and the need to start thinking about the long-term future, the Bengals could get a head start on finding their next running back this offseason.
Whether they accomplish that through the draft—running back is a deep position in this year's class—or sign one of the many veterans on the open market, there should be plenty of viable and cheaper alternatives than Mixon for Cincy to explore.
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Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
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Keenan Allen has been one of the most consistent receivers in football over the last half-decade. The veteran shook off injury woes early in his career to make five consecutive Pro Bowl appearances between 2017 and 2021, but had health issues creep back up in 2022.
With Allen now on the wrong side of 30 and coming off his worst season since 2016, the Los Angeles Chargers may have to make a tough business decision and release their longtime star.
Allen was only available for 10 regular season games this year, catching 66 passes for 752 yards and four scores. He had missed just three games in the last five years combined, but the aging veteran could be on the down-swing after 10 years in the league.
With a cap hit of $21.7 million, Allen's contract could wind up holding the Bolts back if they aren't able to bring that number down significantly. The team looked tepid on offense this year and the passing game lacked the firepower it displayed just a season ago. Although the Chargers did make the playoffs, quarterback Justin Herbert notably regressed from a sensational sophomore year in most statistical categories.
The Chargers already began making some significant adjustments after finding themselves on the wrong end of a 27-0 comeback in the opening round of the playoffs. The team canned offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and replaced him with Kellen Moore; plenty of personnel changes could soon follow.
The Athletic's Daniel Popper personally believes Allen is likely to be released, humorously estimating there is only a 38.7 percent chance the receiver remains in Los Angeles this offseason. The reporter noted that the Bolts would save $17.5 million by executing the move.
With L.A. estimated to be approximately $20 million over the cap, cutting Allen could solve most of organization's financial issues in a single move. It will leave the Chargers in need of a high-end wideout, but the team does hold three selections within the first 86 picks of the upcoming draft and could unearth a rookie to develop with Herbert for the foreseeable future.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
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The Green Bay Packers may not only be without future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers next year, but also their star running back in the prime of his career.
Aaron Jones is surprisingly a cut candidate for the club despite having just signed a four-year, $48 million extension in 2021 and posting a career-high in rushing yards this past season.
Unfortunately for Green Bay, the club is estimated to be more than $17 million over the salary cap at the start of the offseason and has plenty of work to do to get compliant for the 2023 campaign.
Considering the team missed out on the playoffs and had a losing season for the first time since 2018, it simply doesn't make much financial sense to keep a running back with the largest cap hit at his position in the league.
Releasing Jones will save the Packers a shade over $10 million in an offseason where the organization may need every penny it can get to patch up holes on the roster.
With Jones set to take up an exorbitant $20 million next year, the Packers must find a way to reduce that number.
While trading Jones or restructuring his contract are both options the team can explore, there is also a real chance the Packers simply release the back if they can't get either of those done.
Jones will be 29 years old next season and could suffer a sharp decline in the near future. There are countless instances of backs at his age falling off and Green Bay will not want to be left holding the bag if it starts occurring this year, especially not when the team has to re-tool several positions to regain the contender status it lost in 2022.
Running back isn't one of those, however. The team has a competent backup already in AJ Dillon, who rushed for 770 yards and seven touchdowns this past season and should be able to take over in a feature role next year.
Cutting Jones and elevating Dillon could make for a seamless transition that would leave Green Bay needing to find only a low-cost backup running back to complete its backfield this offseason.
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