Making the Case For 1 NBA Player to Challenge LeBron's All-Time Scoring Record

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar set the all-time scoring record on April 5, 1984. Just over eight months later, the player who would go on to break that record was born.

On Tuesday, with a fadeaway jumper from the elbow over Kenrich Williams, LeBron James got to 38,388 points for his career.

LeBron finished with 38 points for the night and 38,390 for his career.

A record that many previously considered untouchable has gone down, just under 39 years after it was set.

And in the end, this will feel more like an obliteration than a breaking.

LeBron is 38 years old, but he's averaging 30.2 points. The previous high in an age-38 (or older) season was 23.4 by, you guessed it, Kareem.

But the stronger indicators that James is going to be able to add to the record for a few more years is a box plus/minus that says he's still playing at an All-NBA level and the public expression that he wants to play in the league with his son, 18-year-old Bronny James.

Even with a conservative estimate of 20 points per game for the next three-and-a-half seasons, LeBron would add 4,500 to 5,000 points to his total.

That begs the question(s): Do we even know of anyone who might be able to challenge this mark? Or, is the next scoring king (assuming there even is one) yet to even be born?

An affirmative answer feels safer for the latter query, but it's still worth exploring possibilities for the former. Whoever this hypothetical player is, he has to check some boxes.

The first and most obvious is that he has to be a volume scorer. Duh. Second, he has to be in the early stages of his career. It's too late for someone like Kevin Durant or James Harden to catch up. Third, he has to have started fast and at a young age. That probably rules out Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was 19 as a rookie but didn't average over 20 points per game until his fourth season. Finally, he has to be durable. So, while he's certainly been more available in recent seasons, Joel Embiid losing his first two years due to injury eliminates him from consideration. Zion Williamson is probably out too.

To narrow down the list a little further, let's look at LeBron's scoring total a couple of other ways.

After Tuesday, he's averaging 1,920 points per season, a mark that's only going to go up as he adds to his 2022-23 total. And really, no one in the league right now is in his universe here. Harden and Damian Lillard are second and third, and both are just over 1,700 per year. The only pre-prime player over 1,700 is Luka Dončić.

Then, there's LeBron's career scoring average of 27.2 points. The only pre-prime players with marks over 25 are Trae Young (25.5), Williamson (25.8), Embiid (26.8) and Dončić (27.4).

The overlap, of course, is Luka, who has 11 40-point games this season (including a 60-pointer) and is averaging more points in 2022-23 (33.4) than LeBron ever has.

Dončić also has more points in his first 311 career games than LeBron did. And he entered the league at the height of the three-point revolution, as evidenced by his 2.8 threes per game (LeBron's career mark is 1.6).

Spending more of his career in a post-three-point revolution NBA could help too.

Last season, teams averaged 110.6 points per game, and Embiid was the only player with an individual average over 30. This season, the team average is up to 114.3, and a whopping seven players are over 30.

If that trend holds, we could be in for several more campaigns from Luka with at least 30 points per game. That would help him catch up to LeBron's per-year average.

But even if all those hypotheticals broke in Dončić's favor, he'd need to play near or at his current level for two more decades.

Without any significant injuries.

We just witnessed that from LeBron, but it still feels impossible.

Among active players, Luka probably has the best shot to top the record we watched LeBron set on Tuesday. Perhaps we'll soon see something from incoming rookies Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson that makes us believe the modern, three-point heavy NBA they're entering can help them get in the conversation.

But even their chances are minuscule.

Like LeBron when Kareem made history, the player who might eventually surpass the new mark probably isn't here yet.