The Most Surprising Men's College Basketball Conference Contenders in 2022-23
Both Kansas State and Southern Miss were expected to finish dead last in their respective conferences in the 2022-23 men's college basketball season, but with just a few weeks remaining, it's plausible they'll both finish in first place.
Those are the two most drastic cases, but there are quite a few instances of teams that might claim regular-season crowns after being projected to finish in the bottom half of their league.
Throughout this list, we'll make references to preseason projections and outlooks. Those standings forecasts and quotes about each team come from "The Almanac," which was the more than 800-page digital "magazine" assembled by The Field of 68's Rob Dauster, Jeff Goodman and more than a dozen other contributors. It was an exhaustive season preview in which they spoke with every head coach and dedicated more than 1,000 words to every team in the country.
If they didn't see a conference contender coming, it's hard to imagine anyone did.
Teams are ranked in ascending order of how drunk you would have been accused of being if you had picked them to win the conference before the season began.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Purdue Boilermakers
Preseason Projection: 7th in 14-team Big Ten
Winning a league after being projected to finish barely in the top half of it isn't a massive deviation from what was expected, certainly compared to some of the jumps at the top of this list. However, Purdue's status as far and away the best team in the Big Ten is a substantial surprise.
Utah State Aggies and Nevada Wolf Pack
Preseason Projection: 8th and 9th, respectively, in 11-team Mountain West
The real surprise in the Mountain West isn't that Utah State and Nevada are among the five teams vying for the crown, but rather that both Wyoming and Colorado State have been complete non-factors. Those were supposed to be the two teams that would stay within shouting distance of San Diego State. As they have crashed and burned, the Aggies and Wolf Pack rose to take their place.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Preseason Projection: 10th in 15-team A-10
The only returning player who'd seen the floor was Justin Ndjock-Tadjore, who scored four points in 30 minutes played in 2021-22 and has yet to score this season. Nevertheless, Mark Schmidt has once again worked his magic, coaching one of the smallest schools in Division I to a winning record. However, there is an even bigger surprise contender in the A-10, and we don't need two top 10 teams from the same one-bid league.
Texas A&M Aggies
Preseason Projection: 8th in 14-team SEC
Yes, the Aggies were picked to finish eighth. But they were one of 11 SEC teams rated 53rd or better on KenPom.com in the preseason and just barely missed the cut for the preseason AP Top 25. It's not like they came out of nowhere. They're also two games behind Alabama in the loss column and highly unlikely to win the SEC. Still, it's worthy of an honorable mention that Texas A&M is 9-2 in conference play after being picked to finish in the bottom half of the standings.
10. Utah Utes
2 of 11
Preseason Projection: 10th in 12-team Pac-12
Currently: 9-5 (4th place)
Preseason Outlook: "[Head coach Craig] Smith has a nice mix this season of returnees, transfers and newcomers. Look for Utah to take a step forward—but it'll be a major success if the Utes can get to the middle of the pack in the Pac-12 and find their way into the NIT."
What Changed?
The two big questions for Utah heading into the season were A) Can Branden Carlson stay healthy? and B) Who else will rise to support the big man?
Carlson was the undisputed star of the 20-loss Utes in 2021-22. The 7'0" center was their top scoring option, and he darn near blocked as many shots as the rest of the roster combined.
But he missed seven games because of injury. And while no one else averaged better than 9.1 points per game (the returning Marco Anthony), both the third- and fourth-leading scorers (Both Gach and David Jenkins Jr.) skipped town, leaving this team with more questions than answers.
Fortunately, Carlson has stayed healthy and has gotten more dominant while teammates Lazar Stefanovic and Rollie Worster improved considerably and Gabe Madsen took a big step forward in the quest to replace Jenkins in the backcourt rotation.
In the marquee win over Arizona in December, Carlson put up 22 points and Worster fell just shy of a triple-double (12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists).
More than anything, though, Utah has benefited from a brutally down year for the Pac-12, going 7-0 against California, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State. The win over Arizona was a pleasant surprise, but the Utes are otherwise 0-6 against the KenPom top 60.
9. Stonehill Skyhawks
3 of 11
Preseason Projection: 8th in 9-team NEC
Currently: 8-3 (1st place)
Preseason Outlook: "Size may be scarce, but speed and skill are the key variables. Plus, this year's NEC field is as down as it has been in quite some time."
What Changed?
Make no mistake about it: The NEC is very bad. All nine teams in this league rank in the bottom 65 nationally on KenPom. But the expectation was that this transitioning-to-D-I program would have a tough first season, even in a bad league.
But just like Merrimack in 2019-20, Stonehill has swooped in and become an immediate contender—even though it will not be eligible for postseason play.
It's largely because they are loaded with experience.
Stonehill's primary seven-man rotation consists of six seniors and a junior. And one of those seniors, Isaiah Burnett, has been one of the best turnover-forcing defenders in the nation, averaging 2.7 steals per game.
Those active hands along the perimeter and above-average shooting as a team have helped the Skyhawks overcome the fact that they have no true big man and get destroyed on the glass more often than not.
Well, it has helped in conference play, at any rate. Nonconference games against KenPom top-100 foes were merciless blowouts, but Stonehill has won much more often than not against teams in the 300 range.
(For what it's worth, the team Stonehill is battling for first place, Fairleigh Dickinson, ranks last in the nation in average height and is getting by just fine in the NEC thanks largely to turnover margin.)
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8. Marquette Golden Eagles
4 of 11
Preseason Projection: 9th in 11-team Big East
Currently: 11-3 (2nd place)
Preseason Outlook: "The Golden Eagles are still very young and do not feature a single player who has averaged more than eight points per game in Division I. As a result, Marquette's most likely outcome might be competing for an NCAA tournament spot this year before evolving into a Big East title threat in 2023-24."
What Changed?
Long story short, Marquette's sophomore class has taken a gigantic leap.
The Golden Eagles went from "no one has averaged eight points per game" to "four guys averaging double figures for one of the most efficient offenses in the nation."
Shaka Smart used to be renowned for his havoc defense, and that's certainly still there, with Marquette averaging 9.5 steals per game. But this team also has a very Gonzaga feel on offense, in the way that the Golden Eagles basically treat everything as a fast-break opportunity and try to get quick, high-percentage buckets at the rim whenever possible.
To that end, Marquette is leading the nation in two-point percentage. The frontcourt tandem of Oso Ighodaro and Olivier-Maxence Prosper does a lot of that damage, but so does 6'4" shooting guard Kam Jones, who's making 69.1 percent of his shots inside the arc.
And it all starts with Tyler Kolek, who is averaging 11.5 points and 7.7 assists per game. There's no question he'll be first-team All-Big East. He might be named Big East Player of the Year and could be a second-team or third-team All-American.
Suffice it to say, Marquette found a way to replace Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell.
7. Pittsburgh Panthers
5 of 11
Preseason Projection: 11th in 15-team ACC
Currently: 10-3 (1st place)
Preseason Outlook: "[Head coach Jeff] Capel has suffered some tough luck in his tenure with injuries, suspensions and decommitments, but this is a make-or-break season for him in Pittsburgh. ... There's certainly enough talent on the roster to get to the middle of the league."
What Changed?
The irony of The Almanac calling out injuries and suspensions as a reason Pittsburgh has underperformed under Capel is that the Panthers have thrived this season in spite of more of those issues.
At the time, incoming freshman Dior Johnson was a projected starter, but he was suspended for the season following misdemeanor assault and strangulation charges, to which he pleaded guilty, and has not played in a game.
And then big man John Hugley IV played just eight games (only one conference game) before stepping away because of a preseason knee injury and his mental health.
Had we known those details three months ago, Pitt probably would have been projected to finish in last in the ACC.
But transfers Blake Hinson, Nelly Cummings and Greg Elliott are all scoring in double figures, turning what was a horrific offense in 2021-22 into a surprisingly potent bunch. Meanwhile JUCO transfer Fede Federiko has been a game-changer in the post, averaging roughly 10 points, nine rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes.
That young big man held his own down low in both of Pitt's big wins over North Carolina, as well as the critical home victories over Virginia and Miami.
The Panthers had a disappointing home loss to Florida State a few weeks ago, but they legitimately might win every game left on their regular-season calendar, which would result in at least a share of a conference title for the first time since they won the 2010-11 Big East.
6. Fordham Rams
6 of 11
Preseason Projection: 13th in 15-team A-10
Currently: 7-4 (4th place)
Preseason Outlook: "While losing Kyle Neptune to Villanova isn't ideal, the hiring of Keith Urgo will help maintain consistency. Urgo should be able to continue the burgeoning success Neptune started and keep his squad competing right in the middle of the A-10 leaderboard."
What Changed?
Simply put, nobody saw Khalid Moore coming.
In four seasons at Georgia Tech, Moore was nothing more than a glue guy. He bounced in and out of the starting lineup, scoring in double figures two or three times per year.
But he arrived in the Bronx with a newfound assertiveness, thriving as the starting power forward of the Rams to the tune of 15.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.
He and Darius Quisenberry—who just eclipsed 2,000 career points—have been quite the bucket-getting tag team.
Granted, Fordham had Quisenberry and a double-double machine (Chuba Ohams) last year and still finished .500 overall. However, this roster has much more offensive chemistry, and the Rams have gotten drastically better at both getting to and converting from the free-throw line.
After it lost to Richmond over the weekend, it's pretty unlikely that Fordham will take the A-10. The Rams just about have to win at VCU on Feb. 18 to have any hope of pulling it off. For that reason, we're keeping them outside our top five. But they're on track to post a winning record in league play for the first time since 2006-07.
5. Milwaukee Panthers
7 of 11
Preseason Projection: 9th in 11-team Horizon League
Currently: 10-4 (2nd place)
Preseason Outlook: "Who plays how much is a mystery, but [Head coach Bart] Lundy likes the depth in his back pocket—along with the boom potential of [Jordan] Ratliffe and [Angelo] Stuart."
What Changed?
The Almanac wasn't kidding about the mystery of this roster. Of its projected five starters for Milwaukee—Ratliffe, Stuart, Jalen Johnson, Vin Baker Jr. and Markeith Browning II—the only one who actually ranks top-six on the team in minutes played is Browning.
Ratliffe suffered an ACL injury in the preseason and is out for the year, but Stuart, Johnson and Baker have all been minor role players while JUCO transfer BJ Freeman and D-II transfer Kentrell Pullian have instead stepped into lead roles.
Freeman has only gotten better with time too. He was averaging 10.0 points per game through his first 11 D-I games and lost his starting job for a couple of weeks, but he's at 23.0 points per game over the past 11 contests.
The shot-blocking prowess of Ahmad Rand and Moses Bol has also been a game-changer for a much-improved Panthers defense. Not only does Milwaukee rank fourth in the nation in block percentage, but the constant threat of blocked shots is also forcing opponents to settle for three-point attempts on roughly 43 percent of shots taken—and they're only making 30 percent of those attempts.
Overall, Milwaukee is nowhere near the level of Houston on defense. But in the shot-blocking, three-point-forcing department, the Panthers have been a light, Horizon League version of the Cougars.
After six consecutive losing seasons—including a disastrous run last year with oft-injured and inefficient 5-star recruit Patrick Baldwin Jr.—Milwaukee is back to competing for a conference title.
4. Radford Highlanders
8 of 11
Preseason Projection: 9th in 10-team Big South
Currently: 10-2 (1st place)
Preseason Outlook: "Even with a revamped roster—and Bryan Antoine's potential star power—Radford still might be a year or two away from legitimate conference contention."
What Changed?
The hope/expectation was that Villanova transfer Bryan Antoine would dominate the Big South, provided he could stay healthy for a change. After all, he was a 5-star recruit in the 2019 class.
While not quite as dominant as some may have expected, he has done pretty well, averaging roughly 11 points, three rebounds, two assists and two steals in league play.
But the real star has been Murray State transfer DaQuan Smith.
And just like Khalid Moore at Fordham, Smith pretty much came out of nowhere after four seasons cumulatively averaging less than five points per game. He didn't start a single game for the Racers in 2021-22, but now he's averaging better than 16 points per conference game for the Highlanders and has emerged as one of the top candidates for Big South POY.
Both Antoine and Smith are shooting roughly 40 percent from three-point range on the year, providing drastic improvement for a team that barely shot 30 percent from distance last season. Those veteran guards have also helped improve what was a ghastly turnover rate over the past two seasons. Radford still merely has a 1-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, but it's better than last year when it had 84 more giveaways than dimes.
Radford will enter play Thursday with one of the nation's longest winning streaks—a nine-game flourish that began over a month ago.
Notably, seven of those nine wins came by eight points or fewer. Translation: The Highlanders aren't exactly destroying their competition. But they're consistently finding ways to win and have become the highest-rated Big South team on KenPom. Win the home game against UNC-Asheville on Feb. 16 and there's a great chance the Highlanders will end up with the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
3. Clemson Tigers
9 of 11
Preseason Projection: 14th in 15-team ACC
Currently: 10-3 (1st place)
Preseason Outlook: "Brad Brownell is a heck of a coach, but this season might be difficult; frankly, an NCAA tourney bid looks like a tall order."
What Changed?
Well, frankly, an NCAA tourney bid still feels like a tall order for Clemson.
Despite sitting in first place in the ACC standings, the Tigers are in bubble trouble thanks to bad losses to South Carolina, Loyola-Chicago and Boston College on a schedule in which they have yet to play a single game against the top half of Quadrant 1.
As far as KenPom is concerned, Clemson is a little worse than anticipated, sitting at No. 68 after opening the year at No. 60.
Basically, the Tigers have taken full advantage of an ACC slate devoid of double dips against Virginia, Duke, North Carolina and Miami.
Still, favorable league schedule or not, no one could have predicted Clemson's 10-1 league start and its flirting with what would be just the second regular-season conference title in program history. (The other came in 1989-90.)
There haven't been any surprises as far as the primary contributors are concerned. Clemson's main five are who we thought they would be before the season began.
But Hunter Tyson—going from 10.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game last year to 16.1 and 9.8, respectively, this year—has taken a gigantic step forward for the Tigers and should receive first-team All-ACC honors.
Chase Hunter's improvement has also been crucial, more than doubling his scoring average to 14.1 per game and blossoming into the primary ball-handler as the Tigers adjusted to life after David Collins, Nick Honor and Al-Amir Dawes in the backcourt.
Here's perhaps the biggest key to Clemson's success, though: Free-throw shooting.
Only Villanova converts at a higher clip from the charity stripe than Clemson's 80.3 percent, which has played a critical role in all of the close wins. Between the two overtime periods of the early key victory over Penn State and the second halves of the close ACC wins over Duke, Florida State, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech (twice), Clemson shot a combined 64-of-75 (85.3 percent) from the free-throw line.
2. Kansas State Wildcats
10 of 11
Preseason Projection: 10th in 10-team Big 12
Currently: 7-4 (3rd place)
Preseason Outlook: "The Wildcats can reach the Big Dance if Keyontae Johnson returns to his 2019 form. And if Nae'Qwan Tomlin lives up to the hype. And if the big men live up to their best-case scenarios. And if Markquis Nowell, a 5'8" guard, can handle the rigors of being a focal point in the Big 12."
What Changed?
Pretty much all of those "ifs" have panned out better than imagined.
Johnson has returned to 2019 form and then some, averaging career-best marks in points, rebounds and assists. What started out as Kansas State's biggest variable has evolved into its top constant, as he's scored at least a dozen points in every game.
Nowell has also been sensational at point guard, averaging 20.7 points, 7.2 assists and 2.5 steals through his first 11 Big 12 games. He's more of a wild card than Johnson, but when you can put up a combined 68 points and 23 assists in consecutive road wins over Texas and Baylor, the occasional turnover-heavy dud doesn't seem so bad.
And JUCO transfer Nae'Qwan Tomlin has been quite the versatile third wheel to that dynamic duo. The big man only has one double-double, but his 15 points, 10 rebounds and two steals were so crucial in the overtime win over Kansas.
Winning the league might still seem a bit unlikely if you look at the standings, but be sure to note that Kansas State has already played all six of its games against Kansas, TCU and Texas, as well as the road games against Baylor and Iowa State.
There's no such thing as a favorable schedule in the Big 12, but the remaining seven-game slate is about as favorable as it gets. The Wildcats reasonably could win out and go from last-place expectations to champions of the nation's toughest conference.
1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
11 of 11
Preseason Projection: 14th in 14-team Sun Belt
Currently: 10-2 (1st place)
Preseason Outlook: "The bump from USM's new additions and influx of talent from the transfer portal likely won't be enough to keep the program out of the Sun Belt basement. However, the Golden Eagles should be able to establish a foundation in a new league, which could be a jumping-off point for future seasons."
What Changed?
Even in the preseason when hope was springing eternal, The Almanac's synopsis of Southern Miss was basically, "Well, maybe if some things click, the Golden Eagles won't stink a year from now."
They weren't alone in that prognosis. Both the Sun Belt coaches poll and Lindy's had USM finishing in 13th out of 14 teams. Blue Ribbon and The Almanac both had the Golden Eagles landing in last.
Understandably so after three consecutive seasons with fewer than 10 wins.
But Ole Miss transfer Austin Crowley and Mercer transfer Felipe Haase have been sensational additions for a team that has improved by leaps and bounds after relocating from Conference USA.
Per KenPom, Southern Miss ranked outside the top 325 nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency last season, but it currently resides in the top 100 in both categories.
Instead of a repeat of last year's minus-60 turnover margin, the Golden Eagles are at plus-93. Instead of losing the rebounding battle in almost every game, they're plus-116, emerging as one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. And instead of getting outscored by 10.5 points per game, Southern Miss is outscoring its opponents by 11.8 points per night.
It's not one thing or one player. Southern Miss is a completely different animal. It lost six of the seven leading scorers from last season and replaced them with guys who perfectly fit what coach Jay Ladner wants to accomplish on both ends of the floor.
If the Golden Eagles win the Thursday night home game against Louisiana (10-2 Sun Belt), they should be the outright regular-season champions of the league.
If you bet on that in the preseason, congrats on potentially being able to retire in a few weeks on all your winnings.
Recruit ratings via 247Sports. Stats via KenPom.com and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted.
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