Predicting Boldest Roster Moves for the 2023 NFL Offseason
Right now, the NFL world is focused on Super Bowl LVII and the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Behind the spotlight, though, the league's other 30 teams are busy planning for the 2023 season.
Several teams will be working just to get under the salary cap—14 franchises are projected to be over it—while others are licking their chops at diving into a deeply talented free-agent player pool. Many franchises are also eyeing the draft and the prospect of acquiring a franchise-altering rookie talent.
As was the case last year, blockbuster trades will likely enter the equation, too.
One thing we've come to learn about the NFL offseason is that we should expect the unexpected. With this in mind, here are some predictions for the boldest roster moves of the 2023 offseason.
Each hypothetical move listed here will have its own reasons for being "bold," and while we're swinging for the fences with our predictions, we'll still aim to keep them realistic.
Las Vegas Raiders Trade for Aaron Rodgers
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If the Las Vegas Raiders replace Derek Carr with Aaron Rodgers this offseason, it might not completely shock many fans. Carr is on the way out—that became clear when coach Josh McDaniels benched him for the final two games of 2022—and the Packers appear open to moving Rodgers.
"League sources believe the franchise prefers to move on from Rodgers, just as it once did with Brett Favre," ESPN's Adam Schefter wrote last month.
Financially, it could be a reasonable move for both teams. If the Packers trade Rodgers after June 1, they can save $15.8 million against the 2023 cap. Any team acquiring the QB would take on reasonable cap hits of $15.8 million next season and $32.5 million in 2024.
Trading for Rodgers would be a bold move, however. As we recently examined, the Raiders aren't a quarterback away from a Super Bowl, and their window with Rodgers would likely be one or two years, at most.
Obtaining Rodgers would also be costly from a compensation standpoint. ProFootballTalk's Peter King believes it would cost "at least" two first-round picks. That's a lot for a 39-year-old who regressed in 2022.
An ill-advised move? Yep, but we can totally see the Raiders making it. Wideout Davante Adams is lobbying for it, Las Vegas isn't afraid to make risky win-now moves (see last year's acquisition of Adams and Chandler Jones), while McDaniels will be under pressure to win immediately after pulling the plug on Carr.
While the Raiders may not get the desired results from the deal, they'll convert Rodgers from the Pack to the Silver and Black this offseason.
Dallas Cowboys Part with Both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard
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Over the past couple of seasons, the Dallas Cowboys have had an elite running back duo in Tony Pollard and longtime starter Ezekiel Elliott. However, we expect to see some significant changes in Dallas' offense next season—and not just because Brian Schottenheimer is replacing Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.
Pollard, who suffered a broken leg in the divisional round of the playoffs, is scheduled to be a free agent. With a projected market value of $9 million annually, he may be a bit too rich for Dallas' blood.
The Cowboys are projected to be $7.6 million over the salary cap.
While letting Pollard go might not be the boldest of decisions, moving on from him and Elliott would be rather daring. Guess what? We see it happening.
While Elliott is under contract through 2026, Dallas could save $10.9 million off the 2023 cap by releasing him with a post-June 1 designation. That would free up enough space to re-sign Pollard, but Dallas will have a different direction in mind.
Franchise owner Jerry Jones is high on quarterback Dak Prescott. To hear him tell it, the decision to go with Schottenheimer as the OC while letting head coach Mike McCarthy call the plays is all about getting the most out of Prescott.
"This whole thing reflects the upside that I feel in Dak," Jones said, per Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "The fact that we're doing this, Mike's calling the plays, this has everything to do with the positives around Dak. It's building around Dak."
Instead of spending on two pricey ball-carriers, the Cowboys instead look to pair 2022 undrafted rookie Malik Davis with a highly drafted 2023 rookie and use whatever excess cap they have to improve Prescott's collection of pass-catchers.
Cincinnati Bengals Acquire Two Potent Pass-Rushers
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Once a notoriously spendthrift franchise, the Cincinnati Bengals have reversed course in recent years. In 2021, they reloaded their defense with players like Trey Hendrickson, Larry Ogunjobi, Mike Hilton, Eli Apple, Chidobe Awuzie and Ricardo Allen. Last offseason, they retooled their offensive line by adding La'el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras.
With $35.7 million in projected cap space, the Bengals could be poised for another aggressive offseason.
The prediction here is that Cincinnati chases not one but two quality pass-rushers—one of them via trade.
In free agency, the Bengals will go after the likes of Marcus Davenport, Brandon Graham and Jadeveon Clowney, spending the money necessary to land one of them. Then, they'll swing a trade with the New Orleans Saints for Cameron Jordan.
Jordan, a two-time Pro Bowler, is set to carry a cap hit of $25.6 million next season. That's a problem for the Saints, who are projected to be $57.4 million over the cap. If Jordan is traded after June 1, though, New Orleans could save $14.9 million in cap space. That's reason enough to part with Jordan for a modest Day 2 draft pick.
Cincinnati could afford to take the cap hit and would be willing to make such a bold move for two reasons. For one, the Bengals tallied a mere 30 sacks in 2022. Secondly, their window of having quarterback Joe Burrow on a rookie deal is closing fast.
Burrow will be extension-eligible this offseason, but even if Cincinnati extends him immediately, his salary shouldn't significantly jump until after 2024. Early extensions, like the one recently signed by Kyler Murray, don't really kick end until after the rookie deal is up. The Bengals should have Burrow on the cheap for two more seasons, and they know what that means.
"When you don't have to pay the quarterback some extraordinary amount, that leaves room to pay other players more and, therefore, you can keep more players that are good players," franchise owner Mike Brown said, per ESPN's Ben Baby.
While the Bengals' Super Bowl window may not close once they have to start paying Burrow the proverbial fat cash, they'll make as many bold moves as possible before then.
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Tennessee Titans Pull the Plug on Ryan Tannehill
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While the Bengals have an elite quarterback in Burrow, the Tennessee Titans have a merely above-average starter in Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill has helped Tennessee reach the playoffs three times since arriving in 2019, and he was playing relatively well (94.6 passer rating) when he suffered a season-ending ankle injury this season.
However, the Titans may have peaked with Tannehill in his first season when they lost in the AFC Championship Game. Tannehill hasn't made the Pro Bowl since that campaign, and his passer rating has dipped below 100 in each of the past two seasons.
New general manager Ron Carthon announced upon taking the job that he will weigh Tannehill's future with the franchise.
"Ryan has been great here," Carthon said, per NFL.com's Michael Baca. "He's won a lot of football games. I look forward to us winning football games. But I still need more time to evaluate and make those decisions."
The prediction here is that Tennessee decides it's gone as far as it can with Tannehill under center. This may lead to the Titans taking a flier on a budget veteran like Jacoby Brissett or Jimmy Garoppolo, continuing to develop Malik Willis and/or trying to land a rookie QB with the 11th pick in the 2023 draft.
This would definitely mean clearing the cap space needed to help reload Tennessee's 23rd-ranked defense. The Titans are projected to be $23.7 million over the cap. They can clear $27 million by releasing Tannehill with a post-June 1 designation.
A better defense, combined with a Derrick Henry-centric offense, could help keep Tennessee relevant in the AFC South while giving the Titans freedom to identify and develop their quarterback of the future.
Baltimore Ravens Attempt a Tag-and-Trade of Lamar Jackson
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While we see the Titans moving on from Tannehill this season, the same may not be true for the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson. However, it won't be for a lack of trying.
Jackson has been among the league's best signal-callers when healthy—he wasn't a unanimous MVP for nothing—but he's finished each of the past two seasons injured and on the sidelines.
Durability questions aside, Baltimore also has to deal with Jackson's contract demands. According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Baltimore and Jackson "could possibly be $100 million apart" in contract discussions.
That's a huge gap to bridge, especially since Jackson now has to prove that he can be an elite quarterback for more than a partial season. The prediction here is that the two sides never come eye-to-eye on a reasonable deal, and Baltimore tries to franchise tag and then trade Jackson.
"Those trade calls are coming," Fowler wrote.
Yet, we're far less certain that the Ravens are able to move Jackson. For one, he may not sign the tag tender until after the extension deadline. If that's the case, teams won't be so willing to trade for Jackson knowing they'll be in Baltimore's shoes next offseason.
Secondly, Jackson's recent injury history could scare franchises off of Baltimore's asking price—likely multiple first-round picks, if recent blockbuster QB trades are any indication. Russell Wilson netted the Seattle Seahawks two first-round picks, two-second rounders and more.
Ultimately, Baltimore's attempts to trade Jackson will sour the QB-franchise relationship for good. Jackson will play on the tag in order to bolster his 2024 free-agent market, while the Ravens will be left searching for ways to start over.
Chicago Bears Trade Down from No. 1...Twice
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The Chicago Bears are set to rule the 2023 offseason. General manager Ryan Poles is carrying a league-high $98.7 million in projected cap space and the No. 1 pick in April's draft. There's a chance, though, that Poles doesn't select at No. 1 overall.
According to Heavy's Matt Lombardo, the Bears might even trade down twice:
"Some league sources here for the Senior Bowl suggest that the Bears could conceivably trade back twice if Poles can manufacture a smokescreen that Chicago is interested in a quarterback that a team such as the Houston Texans are intent on targeting, moving to pick No. 2—potentially for multiple first-round picks, and sliding down again to either pick No. 4 (the Indianapolis Colts), or No. 5 (Seattle Seahawks)."
This would be a bold move because it could leave Chicago without its choice of top defensive prospects—likely either Will Anderson Jr. or Jalen Carter. It would also be a tricky one to pull off.
Poles and coach Matt Eberflus would have to first create the impression that they're not completely sold on third-year quarterback and 2022 breakout dual-threat star Justin Fields. They'd then have to convince Houston that they're going to take a quarterback at No. 1 or have a trade offer on the table that the Texans must beat.
Things would be a bit easier from there. If the Bears move down to No. 2, they would only need to find a team looking to jump Indianapolis at No. 4 or looking to jump another potential trade destination at No. 3—and possibly beat the Arizona Cardinals' asking price at No. 3 if only one team is looking to move up.
In an ironic reversal of the 2017 trade-up for Mitch Trubisky, Chicago pulls it off, all while keeping Fields as the centerpiece of their offensive roster.
*Cap, contract and market information via Spotrac.
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