Buying or Selling Final 2023 NBA Trade Rumors
For several weeks now, it has been smoke screen SZN in the NBA. But the encroaching Thursday trade deadline has the trade winds blowing strong enough to clear the air. Mostly.
Posturing is still prevalent, and calculated leaks continue to float around, clouding the picture. Though time is running short and teams considering deals are nearing "put up or shut up" inflection points, it can still sometimes be tricky to determine which whispers are wastes of breath and which aren't.
Without impugning the integrity of the reporters in question, let's canvas the league for the latest trade deadline rumors and buy or sell them based on how likely they are to come true. A little healthy skepticism is a must in some cases, and since everything we'll cover is technically speculative, we may also have to employ decidedly unscientific methods to sort the chatter into buy or sell buckets. You know: smell test, gut feeling and the like.
Logic still controls. It's always best to ask "Does this make sense?" But get ready for some guesswork, too.
Ben Simmons to the Raptors
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Hoopshype's Michael Scotto has a ton of good intel on the talks between the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors in the wake of the Kyrie Irving trade. He reported the Nets have made inquiries about Pascal Siakam (which Marc Stein also noted) and O.G. Anunoby as they attempt to round out their roster in hopes of keeping Kevin Durant happy and in contention for a title.
None of that smells fishy. It'd certainly behoove Brooklyn to be aggressive in pursuit of a second star now that Irving is gone. Durant is only a few months removed from his last trade demand, and even if another one may not come prior to the deadline, the moves the Nets make now could prevent KD from asking out again this summer. Siakam and Anunoby both profile as quality counterparts for Durant, and pieces of the package Brooklyn got from the Dallas Mavericks for Irving—namely that unprotected 2029 first-rounder—should interest Toronto.
Also mentioned in Scotto's rundown, however: "Nets forward Ben Simmons and several first-round draft picks have also been discussed in trade conversations with the Raptors."
Sorry, what?
The key word in that surprising note is "several," a vague term that could mean anything from "three" to "eleventy trillion." For the Raptors to even consider taking on Simmons, who might have some appeal as a buy-low candidate, the pick package coming with him would have to skew closer to the latter. Remember, this is a player who has "no value around the league," according to ESPN's Bobby Marks (h/t ESPN's Nick Friedell).
Brooklyn can package its 2028 first-rounder and an incoming first from the Philadelphia 76ers in 2027 or 2028 with the Dallas selection, but that's it. Would the Raptors need all of that to take on Simmons? And would the Nets exhaust so much of their limited draft capital just to get off the two years and $78.2 million he's owed after this season?
That's a tough sell for Brooklyn and an easy one for us.
Verdict: Sell
Kevin Durant Is Controlling the Trade Deadline
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OK, that's a hyperbolic header. But it's not necessarily wrong.
In a rundown on the litany of teams interested in Raptors plug-and-play defensive ace O.G. Anunoby, Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer reported Tuesday that "officials from multiple teams also told Yahoo Sports that they expect that the number of front offices quietly preparing for Kevin Durant to become available via trade this offseason will likely dampen the Raptors' bidding war for Anunoby's services, at least to some degree."
This is 2022 free agency all over again.
In early July, shortly after Durant made his trade request, transactions hit a holding pattern. Rightfully so. Any team looking to trade future assets for present upgrades had no choice but to take a step back and reassess its plans. If Durant was available, it made sense to target him or wait until he went somewhere else and set the market rate on win-now acquisitions. He was the domino that had to fall first, or so the thinking went.
That stasis didn't last long. Rudy Gobert changed teams within a week of KD's trade request going public, and Durant stayed put.
Nonetheless, Durant briefly took control of the market when he was last theoretically available. Now, he may be in that position again.
Brooklyn is operating as if it'll have KD through the rest of this season, adding pieces around him in an effort to contend. Ideally for the Nets, their moves will produce a deep playoff run and good enough vibes to keep Durant happy—and keep him from the trade market this summer. But other teams can't just assume that's how things will play out, and they also can't go around offloading future first-rounders and desirable players for good returns when a potentially great one might be gettable in a few months.
Unless and until Durant professes his intention is to stay with the Nets for years to come (and maybe not even then), a number of teams that would have otherwise been busy at the deadline will opt to keep their powder dry—or at the very least lower their offers for non-KD options such as Anunoby.
Verdict: Buy
Mike Conley and Malik Beasley to the Lakers for 2 Firsts
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Let's begin this one with some wisdom from 16-year veteran Mike Conley, via Tim MacMahon of ESPN: "Most of the time when you hear a rumor, it's probably not going to happen. The time you get traded is when you don't know or haven't heard anything about it. Most times, it kind of sneaks up on you."
In other words, it's always the quiet ones you've got to look out for.
That's useful to keep in mind, as some of the rumors MacMahon relayed in that piece feel awfully noisy—and therefore unlikely to actually happen.
A prime example arises in MacMahon's list of options the Utah Jazz—perhaps the team with the most minutes spent on trade calls—have kicked around: "The Jazz have had discussions about a deal in which a combination of rotation players including Conley and [Malik] Beasley would go to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for 2027 and 2029 first-round picks and Russell Westbrook."
The Lakers have every reason to want a new backcourt, and the Conley-Beasley duo would be a significant upgrade over Patrick Beverley and Dennis Schröder. Throw in LeBron James' unsubtle disappointment about Los Angeles' missing out on Kyrie Irving (because it was correctly hesitant to commit to the chronically unreliable eight-time All-Star for more than two years on a new deal), and you could imagine desperation fueling a deal like this.
Zoom out, though, and it just doesn't check out that the Lakers would surrender those precious future first-rounders for this particular pair of players. If L.A. wasn't willing to put those picks on the table with Westbrook's contract for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield in November, why would it consider trading the same package for a worse return now?
James is surely putting pressure on the organization to act, but even he has to see this exchange wouldn't pay off. Hield and Beasley are essentially shooting specialists, but Hield is far more special. He's hitting 42.8 percent of his threes (Beasley is at 35.9 percent on comparable volume) while averaging more assists, rebounds, steals and blocks per 36 minutes. Beasley comes with a valuable $16.5 million team option for next year, but Hield is under contract at just $19.3 million in 2023-24.
Though Conley would add steadiness to the point guard spot, Turner would have teamed with Anthony Davis to form one of the most fearsome defensive frontcourts in the league while adding a stretch-5 dimension the Lakers lack. Neither Jazz piece measures up to their Indiana Pacers counterpart in this deal.
If Turner and Hield weren't enough to pry loose those picks, Conley and Beasley don't come anywhere close.
Verdict: Sell
The Cavs Won't Address Their Hole at Small Forward
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The Los Angeles Clippers would beg to differ, but there's no such thing as having too many three-and-D wings on an NBA roster.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have the most glaring hole in the league at that position, at least among teams with rosters so solid elsewhere as to highlight the void. And yet it seems the Cavs would be comfortable letting the deadline pass without trading for a small forward to bridge the gap between their Darius Garland-Donovan Mitchell backcourt and their Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen frontcourt.
Fischer reported that while the Cavaliers have been "connected by league personnel to various players such as Portland's Josh Hart and Atlanta's Bogdan Bogdanović, at this juncture, the Cavs seem content to move forward with Caris LeVert, who is set to become a free agent this offseason."
This is one of those instances when practicality forms a great big cloud over the optimism of the deadline. Of course the Cavs are seeking (and need!) a 3 to fill out their starting and closing lineups. That's been obvious all season as LeVert, Lamar Stevens, Dean Wade and Isaac Okoro have taken turns manning the position. But when you give up your 2023 first-rounder to get LeVert, and when you surrender control of all but one of your first-round picks through 2029 to get Mitchell, the mechanisms available to acquire one all but disappear.
The good news is that Okoro, whom Cleveland drafted at No. 5 overall in 2020, has recently resembled a competent option. He's only averaging 6.3 points per game this season, but he hit 47.6 percent of his threes in 16 January games (15 starts) and is even hotter through the early part of February.
Couple those high hit rates (on admittedly low volume) with solid wing defense, and Okoro is offering much of what Cleveland needs. Maybe it's disappointing for a high lottery pick to just barely be holding down a starting spot with such minimal competition, but that Okoro is seizing this role later than some may have hoped is better than his never laying claim to it at all.
Cleveland could still look for upgrades by dangling LeVert's expiring deal or even by moving Okoro himself. But considering the team's dearth of draft capital and what it'd likely cost to get involved in the bidding for Bogdanović, O.G. Anunoby or anyone else who'd move the needle, it's reasonable for Cleveland to sit out the small forward sweepstakes.
Verdict: Buy
Bojan Bogdanović Isn't Going Anywhere
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Credit the Detroit Pistons for consistent messaging. Despite all the logic screaming for a bottom-dwelling rebuilder to trade the 33-year-old Bojan Bogdanović in a seller's market, they have said all along they're not eager to move him.
The Athletic's James L. Edwards III reported Sunday that Detroit "is not overly eager to part" with him, and Fischer echoed that sentiment, noting "rival teams are still under the impression that Detroit plans to hold on to [the] veteran sharpshooter."
Shenanigans!
Sure, it's cynical to say the Pistons are posturing. And yes, there are several signs that Detroit really does want to retain Bogdanović. For one thing, it signed him to an extension in October that'll keep him under contract at least through 2023-24 with a partial guarantee on 2024-25's $19 million salary. Those inclined toward suspicion will note, though, that adding a couple of years and a partial guarantee also makes Bogdanović more palatable for an acquiring team that may not want to part with a first-round pick for a short-term rental.
The Pistons haven't flat-out said Bogdanović is off-limits. They've simply signaled they don't want to give him up and that conversations on the topic need to start with a quality unprotected first-round pick. And Stein reported that Detroit might even turn down offers if such a draft asset were involved.
Consider this a bet against the Pistons' showing such restraint.
In a market wherein the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans and several other teams with a Bogdanović-sized hole in the rotation can surrender at least one unprotected first-rounder, it's just not reasonable to believe Detroit won't get an offer worth accepting. Considering the sheer number of interested teams and the lack of comparably useful players on the market, it's not even out of the question that some club will come over the top with an unprotected first plus additional premium assets.
The only thing to buy here is that the Pistons have played their hand admirably. When someone puts an offer they can't refuse on the table, Bogdanović will be playing elsewhere.
Verdict: Sell
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Monday. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, wherein he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
