Early Takeaways for MLB Odds on 2023 World Series and Division Title Winners
With the hot stove having gone cold and the start of spring training still weeks away, Major League Baseball is in a place where the odds for the 2023 season aren't likely to budge much anytime soon.
So, what's say we dive into what the implications are of said odds?
We're specifically talking about figures from DraftKings Sportsbook pertaining to how teams will fare with regard to their wins and losses, in division races and in the hunt for this year's World Series championship. There's much to infer from these, but we want to focus on eight takeaways in particular.
Is that team really that bad? Is that other team really that good? Is that team really that unlikely to finish ahead of those other teams? Are those two teams really that hard to separate?
After we first hit on some smaller odds (pun absolutely intended) and ends, we'll get to answering those questions.
Odds and Ends
1 of 9
Baltimore Orioles: +2200 to win AL East
Do we think the Orioles have a chance of mounting a Cinderella run at the American League East title in 2022? Why, yes, we do. But would we bet on it? Why, no, we wouldn't.
Miami Marlins: +3000 to win NL East
Any team with a Sandy Alcántara-led pitching staff and a Jazz Chisholm Jr.-led offense deserves more respect than this. Like with the Orioles, though, just because something is worth a thought doesn't make it worth a bet.
Texas Rangers: +800 to win AL West
This is after the Rangers made a $244 million splash in free agency, which itself was preceded by a $580.7 million splash on the previous market. And you know what? Hard to argue with it. Maybe you can buy part of a contender, but not the whole thing.
Los Angeles Angels: +1000 to win AL West
We'd flip-flop the Angels with the Rangers in the AL West pecking order, but we also recognize it's academic. Neither really looks like a dark horse to win the division. Best to gear up for a trade of Shohei Ohtani this sum...oh wait, Arte Moreno still owns the team, huh? So much for that.
Come On, the A's Aren't *That* Bad
2 of 9
Summary
The over/under for the Athletics' win total is set at 60.5 games, while their odds of winning the AL West and the World Series stand at +20000 and +50000, respectively. Each of these characterize them as the worst team in MLB heading into 2023.
Analysis
None of this is surprising. The A's are coming off a 102-loss season, after all, and the general vibe surrounding the franchise is one of despair. Nobody showed up to watch them last season after they gutted their roster, and the very future of the franchise is in limbo.
The notion that the A's are the worst of the worst is nonetheless cause for pause, and not just because FanGraphs projects them as more like the fifth-worst team in MLB.
There's some optimism to be gleaned from how the A's haven't left their major league roster to fester even though they said goodbye to Sean Murphy in December. There are new faces aplenty, including a Rookie of the Year dark horse in speedy center fielder Esteury Ruiz and a couple of talented pitchers late of Korea (Drew Rucinski) and Japan (Shintaro Fujinami).
As the A's likewise boast a couple of incumbent breakout candidates in slugging catcher Shea Langeliers and hard-throwing left-hander Ken Waldichuk, they should at least come in under 100 losses in 2023. If all goes really well, they could even pull off a dramatic turnaround akin to their 20-win improvement from 2011 to 2012.
It's Possible to Dream Bigger for the Cubs
3 of 9
Summary
At +650, the Cubs are slated to be an also-ran in the National League Central behind the St. Louis Cardinals (-120) and Milwaukee Brewers (+155). They're also not even seen as likely to salvage a winning record, as the over/under for their win total is set at 77.5.
Analysis
This is perhaps what you'd expect for a team coming off an 88-loss season, but there are reasons to believe that the Cubs are capable of making a leap in 2023.
They went into the offseason with momentum after finishing 2022 with a 39-31 record after the All-Star break, and they didn't squander it with their winter dealings. Willson Contreras may be out, but in are Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Tucker Barnhart, Jameson Taillon and a handful of other new faces.
Swanson is justified in seeing the Cubs as having "pretty elite" defense up the middle, which could indeed be a major competitive advantage by way of new rules that should give defenders more to do within games.
There's likewise room for hope that the Cubs will hit enough. Bellinger and Mancini are bounce-back candidates, while Seiya Suzuki is one of the breakout variety. And keep an eye on first base prospect Matt Mervis, who hit 36 home runs across three levels of the minors and then six more in the Arizona Fall League last year.
The Cardinals and Brewers, meanwhile, are hardly ironclad contenders. The former has a dangerously rickety starting rotation and the latter has more than its share of questions in an offense that was last seen hitting the skids at the end of 2022.
The Twins Deserve a Bit More Confidence
4 of 9
Summary
Meanwhile in the AL Central, the Cleveland Guardians (+140) are favored to repeat as division champions, with the Chicago White Sox (+180) and Twins (+280) next in line.
Analysis
Let's go, once again, to how FanGraphs sizes up what should be a three-horse race for the AL Central title while the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals wait 'til next year:
- Guardians: 45.6 WAR
- Twins: 44.9 WAR
- White Sox: 41.3 WAR
The White Sox's part of this tracks. They only went 81-81 in 2022, and that was with the help of 2020 AL MVP and clubhouse leader José Abreu. It was a loss when he left for the Houston Astros. The Pale Hose also got news of Liam Hendriks' cancer diagnosis, and the domestic violence investigation into Mike Clevinger is ongoing.
While the Twins were a mere 78-win team in their own right last season, they've had the best offseason of the AL Central's three leading contenders. Re-signing Carlos Correa to play shortstop was huge, as was securing Pablo López to stabilize their rotation. The addition of Christian Vázquez is likewise an underrated win for the pitching staff, and Joey Gallo will be a middle-of-the-order threat again if he makes good on his bounce-back potential.
For their part, the Guardians have made only mild improvements to a roster that probably overachieved in producing 92 wins last season. Their performance against the Twins in head-to-head contests was something of a microcosm, as Cleveland won 13 of 19 games even though the two clubs scored exactly 89 runs against each other.
Underestimate the Rays at Your Peril
5 of 9
Summary
The Rays (+370) are seen as the third-best bet to win the AL East after the New York Yankees (+105) and Toronto Blue Jays (+220), while their +2200 odds of winning the World Series sandwich them in between the Cardinals (+1900) and Guardians (+2200).
Analysis
OK, so, the Rays only won 86 games last year and their most notable addition of the winter was via a club-record contract with Zach Eflin. To these ends, their modest odds make sense.
It is, however, a small miracle that the Rays did as well as they did in 2022 given that they racked up more injured list days than any other AL team except the Twins. Wander Franco (89 days), Brandon Lowe (86) and Tyler Glasnow (178) were three notable victims.
It's huge that all three are now healthy going into 2023. Franco currently has MVP-caliber projections, while Lowe may be able to generate the same power that led to a 39-homer outburst in 2021. Glasnow, meanwhile, can be one of baseball's nastiest aces when he's right.
As puzzling as it might seem, the Eflin signing begins to make sense when you dive into his peripheral stats. And you didn't hear it from us, but the Rays might just have the best closer in the American League. That's Pete Fairbanks, who was throwing absolute gas as he was ripping off 22 straight scoreless appearances to end 2022.
Put it all together, and the upside of this Rays team is akin to the likes of a 2020 team that went to the World Series and a 2021 team that won 100 games.
The NL East Does Indeed Look Like a Toss-Up
6 of 9
Summary
Last year's NL East race saw the New York Mets and Atlanta finish with exactly 101 wins apiece, so go figure that the odds for 2023 forecast the former (+130) and the latter (+140) to take place in yet another close race this season.
Analysis
It makes sense that the Mets would be the slight favorite, if for no other reason than that kind of hype surely surrounds the franchise right now.
Even after the club's $315 million agreement with Correa fell through, the Mets' payroll is set to open at $355 million. Injuries to aged aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and a shortage of over-the-fence power are things which could prevent that from being money well spent. But given that their WAR projection is the fourth-highest in the league, it's otherwise hard to cast doubt on these Mets.
Just ahead of them on that leaderboard, however, is Atlanta. It's perhaps the kind of thing that should feel surprising, but doesn't.
Swapping out Swanson for Murphy in the middle of the lineup could actually be a net positive if Murphy carries over his hot hitting from the second half of 2022. And as incumbents go, Atlanta would get an even bigger boost if Ronald Acuña Jr. reclaims his past MVP-caliber form now that he's well removed from tearing his ACL in July 2021.
In other words, we don't envy the oddsmakers for having to pick a favorite to win the NL East between the Mets and Atlanta. They indeed seem to be in for a toss-up of a two-horse race.
The Phillies Are a World Series Dark Horse. Again.
7 of 9
Summary
As for where the Phillies stand in the oddsmakers' eyes, they're at +360 to win the NL East and +850 to repeat as National League champions. The latter puts them at sixth in line out of the Senior Circuit's 15 teams.
Analysis
There's at least one good reason to take the Phillies' NL East odds at face value, and it has to do with Bryce Harper.
The two-time NL MVP underwent Tommy John surgery late last November and is expected to miss the first few months of the season as a result. He might be back before the All-Star break, but "might" is very much the operative word there.
Yet while Harper's absence does figure to hinder the Phillies' efforts to claim their first NL East title since 2011, their odds of making it two straight NL East pennants understate their chances.
Harper will be back eventually, after all, and it's not as if the Phillies are completely hopeless otherwise. They found the perfect solution for their needs at shortstop and in the leadoff hole when they signed Trea Turner, and both newcomer reliever Craig Kimbrel and incumbent slugger Nick Castellanos have major bounce-back potential for 2023.
Even if the Phillies have to settle for a wild card again, having a healthy Harper alongside Turner, Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber in their lineup plus a pair of aces in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola plus a bullpen where Kimbrel might only be the third option after Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado would make them a nightmare matchup in a short series.
The Astros Are More Vulnerable Than That
8 of 9
Summary
The Astros (-185) are seen as an easy favorite over the Seattle Mariners (+300) in the AL West, not to mention the best bet to win the American League pennant (+300) and the World Series (+600) for the second year in a row.
Analysis
When you win 106 regular-season games and then go 11-2 in the playoffs, one supposes you get to go into the following season as the de facto favorite.
But are we just supposed to ignore that the Astros lost their best pitcher this winter? Because even if they could afford to lose Verlander depth-wise, it's not going to be easy to come up with another 175 innings' worth of a 1.75 ERA.
We can also quibble about the $105 million that the Astros spent on these three free agents:
- 1B José Abreu: He's a former MVP and a leader, all right, but he's also a 36-year-old who struggled to hit fastballs in 2022.
- RHP Rafael Montero: He had a nice season in '22, but he was pitching to a 6.39 ERA as recently as 2021.
- LF Michael Brantley: An accomplished hitter, to be sure, but also one who's 35 and coming off shoulder surgery.
The general picture is of a club that's not only not the same as last year's iteration, but a downgraded version of it. Not a bad team, to be sure, but closer to merely good than great.
For their part, the Mariners should believe they can take 'em. They won only five fewer games than the Astros after May 27 last year, and now they can look forward to a full year of Luis Castillo and contributions from newcomers Kolten Wong and Teoscar Hernández.
The Padres and Dodgers Should Be Flip-Flopped
9 of 9
Summary
As to the NL West, the Dodgers (-130) are favored to once again beat the Padres (+135) for the division title. Naturally, the Dodgers also have the better World Series odds at +800 to +1100.
Analysis
There's clearly some recognition here that the Dodgers are not the same 111-win juggernaut that bested the 89-win Padres by 22 games last year, but it's not enough.
Consider, once again, WAR projections for the coming season:
- Padres: 53.5 WAR
- Dodgers: 51.9 WAR
Why the Dodgers don't project better for '23 is no great secret. The aforementioned 111-win roster had both Trea and Justin Turner, as well as Bellinger, Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and Chris Martin. They're all gone now, and the Dodgers barely bothered to so much as paper over their absences with a $44.5 million investment in lesser free agents.
The Padres, by contrast, went for a $354 million splash highlighted by Xander Bogaerts, though smaller deals with the likes of Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz have the potential for huge dividends. Likewise, huge dividends figure to be wrung from having Juan Soto and Josh Hader around all year after they came over in trades last summer. And also from Fernando Tatís Jr.'s return from a year lost to a suspension and injuries.
Ultimately, the Padres beating the Dodgers in the National League Division Series doesn't feel so much like a fluke right now. More like a sign of things to come.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
Gambling problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/KS/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (CA-ONT), or calling 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA (select parishes)/MD/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY/CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Rodgers Gets 'Rare' Tender")
.jpg?w=600 "Downs: I Was Bored in CFB")
.jpg?w=600 "New Report on Stafford's Contract Status")
.jpg?w=600 "Ranking Best FAs Still Available")
