Mavs' Complete 2023 NBA Trade Deadline Preview, Predictions
The Dallas Mavericks are apparently open for business leading up to the NBA trade deadline.
What kind of business they're looking to do, though, seems uncertain.
With Luka Dončić cementing his spot in the MVP race, you might assume the Mavericks are racing to construct a contender around him. And you might be right. According to Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News, the Mavs "are open to trading just about anyone not named Luka Dončić for a star player."
Of course, Dallas could soon learn that it lacks the resources needed to broker that kind of blockbuster. If it can't enter the championship race, could it consider a small step backward for a potentially big step forward down the line? Well, according to Action Network's Matt Moore, "there have been some indications that Dallas may look to shed salary."
This is all a long-winded way of saying the Mavericks should be on everyone's shortlist of teams to track this trade season. That's why we're giving them the spotlight treatment here with a breakdown of where they stand in the days before the Feb. 9 deadline.
Trade Assets
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Dallas' apparent willingness to discuss deals for anyone not named Luka is revealing—and not only about the desire to give its 23-year-old superstar a legitimate co-star.
It shows that the Mavericks don't have anyone else who approaches that tier. Looking at the few young players in their rotation, they don't have any blue-chip prospects, either. Josh Green and Jaden Hardy are suitable sweeteners for a swap, but neither can anchor a mega-move on his own.
The Mavs could shop Christian Wood ahead of his upcoming venture into unrestricted free agency. His stat line and skill set are intriguing, particularly for a 6'10" combo big, but his numbers have often overstated his impact. He can score, shoot and rebound, but he's not a reliable defender or even a competent passer.
While Dallas has only traded away one first-round pick, it carries protections through the 2025 draft. That means if the Mavs want to shop a first-rounder, it can't convey until two years after this pick gets sent to the New York Knicks. Dallas has just two second-round picks left to deal.
Team Needs
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This feels funny to say about a team with Dončić on the roster, but the Mavs lack star power.
They keep trying to find the right No. 2 to pair with Dončić, but the stars haven't aligned yet. Their big swing on Kristaps Porziņģis never panned out, and now they've resorted to imperfect fits like Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Those players are good, but they aren't great. Dinwiddie needs the ball more often than you'd like for Dončić's backcourt mate, and Wood isn't the kind of interior anchor you'd want behind him.
Dallas needs another shot-creator to not only fill the void left by Jalen Brunson last summer, but to play an even bigger role than Brunson did. Dončić's 38.4 usage percentage is the fourth-highest ever recorded by anyone who's logged at least 1,500 minutes, per Stathead.
Deadline Predictions
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Before I get to this prediction, I'll start with an admission: A sleepy deadline in Dallas would absolutely feel demoralizing. I get that.
But...uh...prepare to be demoralized.
Standing pat will feel like a sucker punch when this team, which made the conference finals just last season, has dropped eight of its last 12 games. That doesn't change the fact that standing pat or making marginal moves is the likeliest deadline outcome in Dallas.
If the Mavs are going to chase a star, it makes much more sense to start that pursuit this summer. Unless Dallas bottoms out—and it never will with a healthy Dončić—then it will send that top-10 protected pick to New York and unlock the ability to ship out four first-rounders in a single trade. That kind of package can absolutely land a needle-mover.
Dallas can't get to that level now, though. Cobble together the team's top offer this trade season, and it maybe gets you Fred VanVleet, who's about to turn 29 and could cost a mountain of cash this summer. He's good, but he's probably not the second-best player on a championship team.
On the other side of the coin, the Mavs have little to gain beyond some financial flexibility by selling. Short of dealing Dončić, there isn't a trade or even a combination of swaps that would send this squad spiraling down the standings as part of a stealth, midseason tank job. Not to mention, Dallas couldn't expect much in return for a player like Wood or Tim Hardaway Jr.
The players other teams will want are the ones Dallas should keep, like Green and Dorian Finney-Smith. So, as much as folks won't want to hear this, it isn't the right time to go for broke.
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