Red Sox Ace Chris Sale's Top 10 Potential Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors
The Boston Red Sox may not want to trade Chris Sale. But since other teams are asking about the ace left-hander anyway, it's fair game to speculate on where he fits best outside Boston.
To back up for a moment, Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported on the calls the Red Sox are getting about Sale:
One complication is that the Red Sox are ostensibly looking to contend in 2023 and thus have little incentive to move the guy who's supposed to lead their starting rotation.
Rafael Devers' 11-year, $331 million extension agreement notwithstanding, however, it's been such a bad winter for the Red Sox that other teams can hardly be blamed for thinking they might open for business. And after all he's been through the last three years, Sale is nothing if not an attractive buy-low option.
Since that's yet another complication, let's start there before we dive deeper into the 33-year-old's potential destinations.
What Is Chris Sale's Trade Value?
1 of 7
It wasn't that long ago that Sale was among the top pitchers in baseball, and maybe the top pitcher in the American League.
The slender southpaw led all Junior Circuit hurlers in rWAR from 2012 to 2018, a span in which he posted a 2.91 ERA and averaged 240 strikeouts per season. He was an All-Star annually and a top-six finisher in the AL Cy Young Award voting seven times, and he threw both the first and last pitch of the 2018 World Series.
But Sale's stock has fallen precipitously since he signed a five-year, $145 million contract extension in 2019. He was hit hard that year and has made only 11 appearances since Aug. 13, 2019, because of elbow inflammation, Tommy John surgery, a stress fracture in his rib cage, a broken finger and a broken wrist.
If all that wasn't enough to ding his trade value, he's still owed $55 million through 2024.
That teams are nonetheless inquiring about Sale indicates he isn't entirely without appeal. Albeit in limited action, he did have his fastball back into the mid-90s last year. And you can say whatever you want about the guy so long as you don't say he's not a competitor.
To that end, it's not much of a leap to assume that Sale would waive his no-trade rights if the Red Sox agreed to a deal with a contender. Such a deal could conceivably take the form of a bad-contract swap, or perhaps the Red Sox eating a chunk of Sale's salary as a means to buy controllable talent from another team.
In any case, let's get to counting down Sale's top 10 fits based on their need for him and what resources they have to make a trade happen.
10-6: White Sox, Giants, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Twins
2 of 7
10. Chicago White Sox
Projected Rotation: RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Lance Lynn, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Michael Kopech
Projected SP WAR: 11.0
This is the first idea that came out of the "Hey, Wouldn't This Be Fun?" file. Sale originally arrived in Boston by way of a 2016 trade with the White Sox, so how cool would it be if a trade sent him back to the South Side?
Pretty cool, all right. It's just too bad that the fit is an awkward one. The Pale Hose don't really need another starter, nor are they exactly overflowing with spare young talent for the Red Sox to take off their hands.
9. San Francisco Giants
Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Alex Cobb, LHP Sean Manaea, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Alex Wood
Projected SP WAR: 12.5
That's not a bad rotation the Giants have, but it's one of many parts of their roster that's not up to par relative to their main competitors in the National League West. So, maybe they should kick the tires on Sale just in case?
But while the Giants do have more talent than the White Sox to barter with, we're not sold that Sale would jump at the chance to go to San Francisco. In part because of the state of the NL West, the Giants' contention outlook isn't much better than Boston's.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected Rotation: RHP Zac Gallen, RHP Merrill Kelly, LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Zach Davies, RHP Ryne Nelson
Projected SP WAR: 8.3
Elsewhere in the NL West, the Diamondbacks absolutely need to fortify their rotation if they're to have any hope of keeping up this year. They're also an intriguing trade partner for Boston on paper, as they still have spare outfielders even after moving Daulton Varsho.
Once again, though, it's easy to imagine Sale nixing any deal that comes together. The Snakes were better in 2022 than they were in 2021, but they still have the third-most losses of any team over the last two seasons.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Rotation: LHP Clayton Kershaw, LHP Julio Urías, RHP Tony Gonsolin, RHP Noah Syndergaard, RHP Dustin May
Projected SP WAR: 12.3
We've put the Dodgers here under the assumption that at some point they're going to, you know, do something. And because we don't think they should be overly confident in Syndergaard and May at the back end of their rotation.
So close are the Dodgers to next year's $233 million luxury-tax threshold, however, that they would need Boston to either eat Sale's entire contract or take on some dead money in exchange. Not impossible, perhaps, but not straightforward either.
6. Minnesota Twins
Projected Rotation: RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Tyler Mahle, RHP Kenta Maeda, RHP Bailey Ober
Projected SP WAR: 9.9
Don't take our word for it that the Twins could use another starter, and preferably one who throws from the left side. If they didn't want one of those, they wouldn't have been in pursuit of Carlos Rodón before he signed with the New York Yankees.
The Twins are a fringe contender in the American League at large, but they're more legit within the confines of the AL Central. For their part, one can imagine the Red Sox being interested in one of three outfielders: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff.
5. Baltimore Orioles
3 of 7
Projected Rotation: RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP Kyle Bradish, RHP Dean Kremer, RHP Tyler Wells, RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Projected SP WAR: 7.4
The Orioles pulled off an all-time turnaround in 2022, winning 31 more games than they did during a 110-loss effort in 2021. In 2023, Adley Rutschman and company will naturally look to take the next step of contending for a playoff spot.
For this, it would help to have more starting pitching.
The Orioles know this. Upon adding Gibson on a one-year contract in December, general manager Mike Elias confirmed that adding another starter was the club's top priority. Yet to date, Gibson remains the only addition to Baltimore's rotation.
This is where Sale would come in, and the advantage in targeting him is that he shouldn't have as steep an acquisition cost as, say, Pablo López. Even if the Red Sox were to eat some of Sale's contract, his value is such that they still probably wouldn't have leeway to demand any of the best fruits from the Orioles' loaded farm system.
Of course, that's a potential turn-off for the Red Sox. And as for Sale himself, one can imagine him not being sold on Baltimore's contention outlook just yet.
4. Houston Astros
4 of 7
Projected Rotation: LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Lance McCullers Jr., RHP Luis Garcia, RHP José Urquidy
Projected SP WAR: 12.4
The Astros have done plenty to reinforce themselves for 2023 in the months since they won the World Series, but it's hard to miss the massive hole in their starting rotation.
That's the one left by Justin Verlander, who joined the New York Mets shortly after he collected his third Cy Young Award last November. Houston's rotation isn't necessarily bad without him, but, come on, nobody can make the case that it's as good.
This is not to suggest that Sale can replace the 1.75 ERA that the Astros got from Verlander in 2022. But at the least, the lefty would figure to be an upgrade over Garcia and Urquidy, and maybe even McCullers as well.
While Houston doesn't have much in its farm system these days, young catchers Yainer Díaz and Korey Lee could appeal to the Red Sox, whose long-term situation behind the plate is at best questionable.
But would the Astros go for Sale? Because as much as it looks like they need another starter, finding one has never seemed like a priority at any point this winter.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 7
Projected Rotation: RHP Adam Wainwright, RHP Miles Mikolas, LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Jack Flaherty, LHP Steven Matz
Projected SP WAR: 9.7
Simply by moving from Yadier Molina to Willson Contreras behind the plate, the Cardinals look like one of the most improved teams of the winter.
The starting rotation, however, appears shaky. Wainwright and Mikolas are a fine duo, but Montgomery is a fringe No. 3 starter and both Flaherty and Matz are coming off injury-shortened seasons.
Such things help contextualize why the Cardinals were also in on Carlos Rodón before he ended up in the Bronx. As his price tag was too steep for them, positing that they could favor a lower-risk move for Sale doesn't seem like a step too far.
Theoretically, the Red Sox could pay down a chunk of Sale's deal to get at one of St. Louis' young hitters. Or at least Paul DeJong, who could use a change of scenery now that he's looking up at Tommy Edman on St. Louis' depth chart at shortstop.
The question here concerns the Cardinals' level of urgency. FanGraphs already predicts they'll double up as NL Central champions in 2023, so perhaps they'll prefer to wait and see how things go before they pursue upgrades.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
6 of 7
Projected Rotation: RHP Aaron Nola, RHP Zack Wheeler, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Ranger Suárez, LHP Bailey Falter
Projected SP WAR: 13.8
"You win with star players" is Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski's philosophy, and he sure has stuck to it this winter.
But while that's included adding Walker to the rotation, one need not squint to see that there's room for still another addition. Falter may have posted a decent 3.86 ERA last season, but that obscures how he had one of the highest home run rates in the majors.
Sale isn't immune to gopheritis, but his ability to miss bats plays well anywhere. That should include even Citizens Bank Park, which is one of the most slugger-friendly parks in the majors.
Dombrowski, meanwhile, has already traded for Sale once in his career. Were he to mount another pursuit of the southpaw, one can envision the Red Sox targeting (at best) Bryson Stott or (at worst) Edmundo Sosa to fill their hole at shortstop.
There is, however, yet another question of urgency here. Because in the scheme of things, another starter is more of a nice-to-have than a need for the Phillies.
1. San Diego Padres
7 of 7
Projected Rotation: RHP Yu Darvish, RHP Joe Musgrove, LHP Blake Snell, RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Seth Lugo
Projected SP WAR: 12.6
Padres general manager A.J. Preller has been on quite the bender since last August, scoring Juan Soto and Josh Hader via trade and Xander Bogaerts and Matt Carpenter in free agency.
And yet, the Padres could use another starter.
There's nothing wrong with the top end of their rotation, but Martinez and Lugo would be better off in the bullpen. The latter has started all of seven games over the last four seasons, while the former was better in relief (2.67 ERA) than he was in starting last year (4.30 ERA).
The Padres know they need another starter, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported that they could be willing to move either shortstop Ha-Seong Kim or center fielder Trent Grisham in a trade to get one. Either would suit the Red Sox, and Kim especially.
As for reasons a deal shouldn't or likely won't happen between Boston and San Diego, we're drawing a blank. In addition to the two clubs being good hypothetical trading partners, there's little question that the Padres could scratch whatever itch Sale has to play for a winner.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.jpg?w=600 "Pickens Gauged Trade Market")
.jpg?w=600 "A.J.-Eagles Relationship 'Cordial'")
