Purdue or Connecticut: Who Is Actually Best Men's College Basketball Team in 2022-23?

For the second consecutive week, it's Purdue at No. 1 and Connecticut at No. 2 in the men's college basketball AP Top 25.

Though it's not quite a unanimous top two—three voters have Houston at No. 2 with either the Boilermakers or the Huskies at No. 3—it's a two-horse race right now for the title of "best in the nation."

Before we dive into handicapping that race, we should probably acknowledge it's entirely possible the debate will be moot by the time we get to March.

Back in 2013-14, Arizona and Syracuse occupied the top two spots in the AP poll for 10 consecutive weeks (early December through late February) until Syracuse crashed and burned. The Orange started out 25-0 before losing six of their final nine games, earning a No. 3 seed in the dance and getting bounced in the second round. (Arizona earned a No. 1 seed but also fell short of the Final Four.)

But that year was an exception to the rule.

In the eight seasons since then, the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the final AP poll of December finished the year with an average rank of 3.9.

So, it's more likely we've got a 2020-21 Baylor/Gonzaga situation on our hands here—one in which we actually get a national championship between teams who seemed to be on a collision course for months.

AP Photo/Jessica Hill

It certainly didn't start the same way for Connecticut and Purdue as it did for those teams two seasons ago. Gonzaga spent that entire season at No. 1. Baylor started at No. 2 and never dropped below No. 3. Conversely, both Connecticut and Purdue opened this season in the "Others receiving votes" portion of the AP poll.

But the Huskies and Boilermakers rocketed up the rankings after their Thanksgiving-week trips to Portland.

In the Phil Knight Invitational, Connecticut blitzed Oregon, Alabama and Iowa State by a combined margin of 57 points. And Purdue's dominance in the Phil Knight Legacy was even more impressive, beating each of West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke by double digits.

Had there been a Legacy/Invitational super title game, though, who would have won?

And which of these still-undefeated squads is best suited to win a national championship?

While the AP voters prefer the Boilermakers by a slim margin, the predictive metrics favor Connecticut rather convincingly. The Huskies are No. 1 in the NET, No. 2 on KenPom (marginally behind Houston) and No. 1 in Sagarin. Purdue is No. 4, No. 7 and No. 10, respectively.

There are three clear reasons for that divide, with the first and foremost being that Connecticut doesn't believe in playing close games.

Purdue eked out a five-point victory over Marquette in mid-November, needed overtime to win at Nebraska and didn't exactly flex its muscles in a 69-61 win over a Davidson team that is 7-5 and not even remotely in the at-large mix.

AP Photo/Craig Mitchelldyer

Connecticut, on the other hand, has won every game this season by double digits. Even last week against lowly Georgetown when the Huskies trailed by six midway through the second half, they went on a 20-3 run in a little over five minutes to turn a near upset into a relatively convincing victory.

Trailing that late in the game was new for Connecticut, but that spurtability was not. The Huskies seem to just run away with at least one "quarter" of every game, most memorably turning a 52-52 game against Alabama into a 73-54 blowout in the blink of an eye.

UConn is able to routinely go on those phenomenal runs because of the other two advantages it has over Purdue: superior defense and better three-point shooting.

The latter part of that feels like a misprint, right?

Purdue ranked top 10 in the nation in three-point percentage in three of the past six seasons, while Connecticut has ranked better than 80th in that department just once since 2003-04, finishing 24th en route to the 2014 national championship.

However, Purdue is shooting worse from distance (31.1 percent) than in any of its previous 17 seasons under Matt Painter.

Fortunately, those shots were falling at a 41.0 percent clip in the Phil Knight Legacy, but the Boilermakers have shot just 15-of-73 (20.5 percent) over their last three games—hence the low-scoring close calls against Nebraska and Davidson. Frankly, it's incredible that they're undefeated while occasionally laying bricks like that.

Meanwhile, Connecticut is both taking and making threes like never before.

In the KenPom era (since 1997-98), UConn's previous high for three-point attempt rate was 37.4 percent in 2018-19. The Huskies are currently taking 42.9 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and making 37.3 percent of them. That combination has resulted in a Villanova-like 9.7 made triples per game. (UConn averaged 7.4 makes last season and 6.7 the year before that.)

San Diego transfer Joey Calcaterra is most unexpectedly leading that charge. He shot below 38 percent in each of the past four seasons, but he's sitting at 52.3 percent through 13 games. Jordan Hawkins is the primary source of volume, though, averaging 7.5 attempts per game at a 41.5 percent success rate.

On the defensive front, it's the active hands, depth and versatility that give UConn the edge.

Eight different Huskies have at least eight steals already this season, as they are often applying pressure before the ball even gets across half court.

However, the nearly nine non-steal turnovers per game might be even more indicative of this defense's impact, as they'll make you shoot yourself in the foot even more often than they'll pick your pocket.

And bless your heart if you're hoping to step into an open three against Connecticut. Opponents are attempting a nation-low 13.4 threes per game and making just 27.0 percent of those limited tries. Even Alabama—which has lived and died by the deep ball under Nate Oats—was only able to get up 16 three-point attempts against UConn. (It was the only time this season the Crimson Tide attempted fewer than 22 threes.)

Just so we're clear, though: Purdue isn't bad on defense. The Boilermakers have yet to allow an opponent to score more than 70 points, doing an excellent job of contesting shots without fouling. They just take more of a pack-line approach, forcing nowhere near as many turnovers and allowing way more three-point attempts per game (24.2).

Of course, that's because Purdue has the 7'4" frontrunner for National Player of the Year Zach Edey, which is pretty much the only rationale you need if you're picking Purdue over Connecticut right now.

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He's not an elite shot-blocker, but Edey does average 2.2 rejections per game simply by being huge and hanging out near the rim.

He is elite on the glass and in the offensive paint, though, averaging 22.6 points and 13.9 rebounds per game.

Even if he slips a bit in both categories and finishes the season at 21.5 and 12.5, respectively, he would join Blake Griffin as the only such player in the past 25 seasons to hit both those marks.

Simply put, even in "The Year of the Big Man," this big Boilermaker has no equal in college basketball.

When Purdue trounced Gonzaga, Mark Few kept his star center Drew Timme as far away from Edey as possible, knowing full well that letting them go mano e mano would just result in Timme fouling out in a hurry. And in the Purdue-Duke game, even the combined force of the Blue Devils' 7'1" Dereck Lively II, 7'0" Kyle Filipowski and 6'10" Ryan Young wasn't enough to keep Edey from getting to 21 points and 12 rebounds (while getting all of those big men into foul trouble).

UConn's 7'2" freshman Donovan Clingan might be able to put up a fight against Edey, but he has yet to play 20 minutes in a game this season and would be unlikely to last 20 minutes against Purdue.

That's coming from a huge fan of Clingan's work, but he is still figuring out the artform of dominating down low. He has been arguably more impactful as a freshman than Edey was in his first season at Purdue, but in their respective current states, the junior would likely school the freshman.

Would that be enough for Purdue to beat Connecticut in the hypothetical national championship, though?

As things currently stand, I say no.

Connecticut is my pick to win the national championship (paging @OldTakesExposed), and I would take the Huskies on a neutral floor against the Boilermakers. Edey might own the paint, but Connecticut's three-point assault would be a problem. Moreover, UConn's constant ball pressure could wreak havoc on Purdue's freshman point guard Braden Smith.

And though we've yet to mention him simply because UConn's whole is greater than the sum of its parts, the Huskies have a darn good NPOY candidate of their own in Adama Sanogo. Per 40 minutes, the stretch 5 is averaging 29.8 points and 11.6 rebounds, and he could be a major matchup nightmare for Purdue.

Neutralizing Edey is just about impossible, but you can effectively negate him by winning the turnover and perimeter battles, which the Huskies are well-equipped to do.