Unranked Men's College Basketball Teams That Could Make Waves in March
Every men's college basketball team has played roughly a dozen games at this point, so it feels like we have a decent grip on which teams are legitimate threats for a March Madness run.
But do we really?
At this time last year, Villanova (which went on to reach the Final Four) was barely ranked, coming in at No. 22 in the AP poll. The eventual runner-up for the national championship, North Carolina, was off the radar entirely, receiving nary a vote in the Dec. 27 poll.
Moreover, Arkansas, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa and Saint Mary's were all unranked in that final December poll before each receiving either a No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the Big Dance. And while both Iowa and Connecticut got bounced in the first round, Arkansas stunned No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.
This, of course, begs the question: Which teams are best equipped to do the same this year?
Several of our nominees are teams who have fallen well short of expectations since being ranked in the preseason but who might be able to rally from here. (Et tu, again, Villanova?)
We've also included a handful of teams that are playing quite well, though the AP voters evidently haven't noticed yet.
And, yes, there are a couple of way-too-early Cinderella candidates in the mix. Can't forget our dangerous friends from likely one-bid leagues.
Schools are presented in alphabetical order.
Creighton Bluejays
1 of 9
Less than a month ago, the idea of Creighton as an unranked, underrated team was just plain inconceivable.
The Bluejays opened the season at No. 9 in the AP poll and started out 6-0. And aside from sputtering a bit in their opener against St. Thomas, they looked every bit as good as advertised throughout the offseason. They destroyed North Dakota, Holy Cross and UC Riverside. They convincingly beat Texas Tech in the first round of the Maui Invitational, and they emerged victorious from the incredibly high-level Maui semifinal against Arkansas.
Even in the subsequent losses to Arizona and Texas, they battled admirably in close games away from home against threats to win the national championship.
Then, the wheels came off.
Creighton couldn't make anything in the home loss to Nebraska.
Without big man Ryan Kalkbrenner, the Bluejays couldn't buy a rebound in the loss to BYU in Las Vegas.
They collapsed two nights later against Arizona State, blowing a 10-point second-half lead by allowing 35 points in the final 13 minutes.
And in the Big East opener at Marquette—Creighton's third straight game without Kalkbrenner—the Bluejays shot 20 percent from three-point range and committed 18 turnovers.
Suddenly, everyone who doubted Creighton in the preseason was doing victory laps around its grave.
But let's pump the brakes on burying this team. Not having Kalkbrenner for those latter three losses was a massive factor. And Creighton still almost won two games away from home against top-100 teams without its 7'1" star. That seems like pertinent information.
A healthy Creighton is probably still the second-best team in the Big East, and it looked mighty good in those wins over Texas Tech and Arkansas.
The Bluejays deservedly dropped out of the AP Top 25 as a result of that six-game losing streak, but the 22-point drubbing of Butler on Thursday was a vivid reminder of how dangerous this team could be in the NCAA tournament.
Florida Atlantic Owls
2 of 9
Scroll through the upper echelon of the NET rankings and you'll find a lot of the same teams that are also at the top of both the AP and KenPom rankings—teams like Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, Arizona and Kansas.
But there's one team in the NET Top 15 that makes it feel like someone is playing a game of "one of these things is not like the other": Florida Atlantic.
The Owls haven't been to the NCAA tournament since 2002 and have won 20 or more games in a season just once in program history, going 21-11 in 2010-11.
Yet, there they sit at No. 13 in the NET—as well as comfortably in the top 50 on KenPom at No. 41—with an 11-1 record and an average scoring margin of 18.5 points per game.
Their lone loss was a road game against Ole Miss, for which the only senior on FAU's roster, Michael Forrest, was unavailable. The Owls won by two at Florida three days later (with Forrest scoring 20 points) and have since won eight in a row by double digits.
What's fascinating about Florida Atlantic's breakout is that it wasn't the product of some major influx of talent. The six leading scorers on last year's team all came back, and the Owls didn't add much of anything aside from Connecticut transfer Jalen Gaffney, who ranks seventh on the team in scoring and has really just been a glue guy.
Also fascinating is that only one of FAU's seven leading scorers is listed as taller than 6'4". It has worked thus far, but that's something to keep in mind if they get matched up against a dominant frontcourt in March.
Still, what was a 19-win team returned largely intact and has taken a big leap.
Basically, Florida Atlantic has done what Creighton and North Carolina were supposed to do.
We'll find out in a hurry how real the Owls are, as they'll play two games against North Texas and one against UAB within the next three weeks. Should they win at least two of those games against the other quality teams in Conference USA, both an at-large bid and a single-digit seed in the dance become a real possibility.
Illinois Fighting Illini
3 of 9
It has been a rough couple of weeks for the Illini. They got drilled at home 74-59 by Penn State on Dec. 10, then lost by 22 to Missouri in St. Louis. As a result, they have slipped out of the AP poll for the first time this season.
But you don't win neutral-site games against both UCLA and Texas unless you're a threat to do some serious damage in the NCAA tournament.
Plain and simple, the difference between the two marquee wins and the two ugly losses was the deep ball.
Illinois shot 22-of-48 (45.8 percent) against the Bruins and Longhorns compared to 14-of-54 (25.9 percent) against the Nittany Lions and Tigers. The Illini also allowed Penn State and Missouri to shoot a combined 22-of-44 (50 percent) from deep, which is hard to overcome when you commit turnovers as often as Illinois does.
Find the happy medium between those perimeter extremes, though, and this is a solid team with plenty of range.
Six of the seven guys in Illinois' primary rotation average at least 3.3 three-point attempts per game. The Illini also have six guys averaging at least 3.3 rebounds per game. And everyone who steps on the floor is a threat to generate some steals.
Save for Dain Dainja in his "old-school big man" role, it's a versatile, positionless bunch that should only get better as the season progresses. Because, let's not forget, Illinois lost six of its seven leading scorers from last season and had to cobble together a contender via the transfer portal. The Illini have already shown some improvement in the turnover department, and they could be mighty dangerous three months from now if they continue to get that Achilles' heel under control.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
Kent State Golden Flashes
4 of 9
Much like Florida Atlantic, Kent State might seem a bit out of place in the top 10 percent of the NET rankings at No. 25.
After all, the Golden Flashes' best win of the season was either the home game against Portland or the one against New Mexico State in El Paso, Texas—neither of which was great.
But like most of the Cinderella teams of yesteryear, Kent State is loaded with veterans, has a great, turnover-forcing defense and had several strong "moral victories" during nonconference play.
The Golden Flashes almost won what was an incredible back-and-forth affair on the road against Charleston, which is 12-1 and damn good in its own right.
Three days later, the Flashes almost won at Houston, jumping out to an early 10-point lead and pulling back ahead 44-43 with just over a minute remaining before the Cougars scratched out a 49-44 win.
And a little over a week after that, the Golden Flashes went up to the Kennel and gave Gonzaga all it could handle. Kent State led by four with less than four minutes remaining, but the Zags closed the game on an 11-0 run to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
All told, the Golden Flashes are 10-3 with what might be the most impressive 0-3 record in Quadrant 1 games.
Short of winning every game between now and the MAC tournament championship, there's no realistic hope for Sincere Carry, Malique Jacobs and Co. to earn an at-large bid. But should Kent State win the conference, it would get either a No. 12 or No. 13 seed in the dance for doing so, and I will have a hard time not picking this team to crash the Sweet 16.
Memphis Tigers
5 of 9
After several years of unsuccessfully trying to win with rosters overrun with underclassmen, Penny Hardaway's approach to this season at Memphis seemed to be "Let's see how old we can possibly get."
And it has worked.
Of the 11 players in their rotation, the Tigers have one redshirt freshman and 10 seniors, eight of whom are of the fifth-year/redshirt variety.
One of their biggest stars is DeAndre Williams, who turned 26 this past October and often looks like the man among boys that he is. In a Dec. 3 victory over Ole Miss, Williams racked up 17 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists and three blocks. He also had a double-double (16 points, 11 rebounds) in Memphis' marquee win over Auburn.
But the brightest star is Kendric Davis, who dominated at SMU over the past three seasons before joining a different AAC squad. Davis is averaging 19.3 points, 5.8 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game, and Memphis wouldn't have stood a chance against Auburn without his 27-9-6-2 line.
Because of that dynamic duo and the experienced depth behind it, Memphis is 10-3 with six wins over major-conference programs. The losses were by a combined total of 10 points, each coming away from home against Alabama, Saint Louis and Seton Hall. (Notably, the Seton Hall game ended on a banked-in three-pointer at the buzzer by Tyrese Samuel, who is otherwise 0-of-5 from distance this season.)
Though Memphis isn't currently ranked, it very likely will be by the time it first faces Houston on Feb. 19. And even if the Tigers go 0-3 (including the AAC championship) against the Cougars, this team should be a single-digit seed in the NCAA tournament.
And once in the dance, the sheer volume of experience on the roster will make Memphis a dangerous team.
Ohio State Buckeyes
6 of 9
Ohio State's offense has been, for the most part, sensational.
Freshmen Brice Sensabaugh and Bruce Thornton have both been lights-out from three-point range, shooting a combined 48 percent from distance. West Virginia transfer Sean McNeil hasn't been quite that accurate, but the senior does have great range with a career 36.7 percent stroke from the perimeter.
After missing almost all of last season with an abdominal injury, Justice Sueing has looked no worse for wear, thriving in the paint.
The Zed Key/Felix Okpara tandem at the 5 is relentless on the glass, and Key has blossomed into a legitimate go-to scoring presence, even flashing some three-point range on occasion.
And though Isaac Likekele has missed the past three games while addressing some undisclosed personal matters at home in Texas, the Oklahoma State transfer has been a versatile veteran presence for the Buckeyes, tying together one of the most efficient offenses in the nation.
But the perimeter defense really let them down in the Maui Invitational opener loss to San Diego State. They didn't quite have enough firepower to beat Duke at Cameron Indoor. And they both wilted late and ended up on the wrong end of a staggering Pete Nance buzzer-beater at the end of regulation in an overtime loss to North Carolina.
Because of those three losses away from home against presumed NCAA tournament teams, the Buckeyes are outside the AP Top 25...and sitting right there to be taken as a buy-low candidate to finally get back to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for what would be the first time since 2013.
Penn State Nittany Lions
7 of 9
Penn State making waves in March would certainly be a new one.
The Nittany Lions have made the NCAA tournament just once in the past two decades, getting immediately bounced as a No. 10 seed in 2011. They very likely would have made the tournament in 2020, but they posted sub-.500 records the year before and the two years after that oasis of a campaign.
But in year No. 2 under head coach Micah Shrewsberry, Penn State has something potentially special brewing with Jalen Pickett running the show.
Pickett is averaging 16.6 points, 7.8 assists and 7.7 rebounds per game. But his most impressive number might be the 1.7 turnovers per game that he commits in the process.
Because of Pickett's sure-handed leadership, Penn State leads the nation at just 8.6 giveaways per game. And this is also one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the country, converting at a 39.8 percent clip for 11.3 makes per game.
Though the Nittany Lions are downright awful on the offensive glass and rarely draw fouls, it's a potent offense reminiscent of the 2019-20 BYU team that felt like a Final Four sleeper heading into the NCAA tournament that never happened.
When it's hot, this Penn State team can beat anyone, as evidenced by the 15-point road win over Illinois a few weeks ago. But when those perimeter jumpers aren't finding their mark, Penn State can lose to Clemson or struggle with Quinnipiac.
The Nittany Lions are the ultimate wild-card team, and if you want to bet against the nightly triple-double threat of a fifth-year senior leading their charge, you're braver than me.
Saint Mary's Gaels
8 of 9
As always seems to be the case, Saint Mary's is flying below the national radar.
The Gaels have gone 10-4 overall against an impressively strong schedule. Save for the home game against Southern, every game on the slate came against a team in the top 160 on KenPom. That includes what was effectively a road game against KenPom No. 1 Houston in Fort Worth, Texas.
Saint Mary's almost won that game, too, coming just five points short in a defensive grind. The Gaels also lost by four to undefeated New Mexico and lost by two against a Colorado State team that might be good now that veteran point guard Isaiah Stevens is back from an early injury. Their biggest misstep was an overtime loss to Washington, which isn't even that bad.
On the Gaels' nice list, they won neutral-site games against San Diego State, Wyoming and Vanderbilt, as well as home games against North Texas and Oral Roberts.
Just from a tournament resume perspective, they're looking like a solid No. 7 seed right now. The Gaels are top 20 both in the NET and on KenPom.
From an "actually watch them play" perspective, they've got a talented fifth-year senior (Logan Johnson) running the offense, a pair of three-point snipers (Aidan Mahaney and Alex Ducas), a double-double machine in the post (Mitchell Saxen), a 7'1" spark plug off the bench (Harry Wessels), perhaps the stickiest glue guy in the nation (Kyle Bowen) and a strong defense.
However, the Gaels—who have never been ranked in the AP Top 10 in program history—are once again getting just no love from the pollsters, even though this might be Randy Bennett's most capable team in more than two decades at the helm.
Villanova Wildcats
9 of 9
The best time to buy low on Villanova was a month ago.
The second-best time is now.
Since getting freshman phenom Cam Whitmore on the floor, the Wildcats have gone a perfect 5-0. That includes home wins over Oklahoma and St. John's, both of which are smack dab on the NCAA tournament bubble, if you subscribe to way-too-early bracketology.
Whitmore is a big-time scoring threat, averaging 18 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes played. It's easy to see why he's on the fast track to becoming a lottery pick.
But what has really changed for Villanova as of late is the defense.
During the four-game losing streak, opponents averaged 77.8 points and shot 48.9 percent from the field. During the five-game winning streak, those numbers are down to 61.6 and 40.4, which is much more in line with what we're used to seeing from Villanova. (Last year's Final Four team allowed 62.7 points and a 40.8 field-goal percentage; the 2016 title team was at 63.6 and 40.3, respectively.)
Because Villanova started out 2-5, though, it is still a far cry from climbing back into the AP poll. But that could change in a hurry if the Wildcats win at Connecticut on Wednesday. Even if they merely put up a solid fight in a loss to the Huskies before winning at home against Marquette on Saturday, it would raise some eyebrows.
Also, there's still a chance that veteran leader Justin Moore (Achilles) will play this season, though we're growing less optimistic about that by the day.
Even if he doesn't make a triumphant return, Villanova is figuring things out. Could be a huge boost if he does resurface, though.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
