Is It Time for the Rangers to Panic? The Eastern Conference Might Force Them To

The New York Rangers had every reason for optimism heading into the 2022-23 NHL season. They were coming off a run to the Eastern Conference Final, took a massive step forward in their rebuild, and boast a roster that has at least one elite player at forward, defense, and in net.

But now that we are a quarter of the way through the season the Rangers have not yet looked like the Stanley Cup contender they were supposed to be, and it might be time to start wondering if it is panic time. Not only because the Rangers are demonstrating some of the same flaws that held them back at times a year ago, but also because the rest of the Eastern Conference might cause some problems for them in their playoff pursuit.

The Rangers enter play on Friday just barely on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, and even though there is still a lot of hockey to be played this is not a position that anybody expected them to be in at any point in the season. While the Rangers seem to have stagnated in the first quarter, teams like the New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils, and Detroit Red Wings have all taken big leaps forward. That makes an already top-heavy Eastern Conference that much tougher.

The Islanders have their own superstar goalie in Ilya Sorokin (who is playing at an absurd level) and have benefitted from a start that was not interrupted by a massive road trip and COVID complications like last year.

The Devils have suddenly transformed into an absolute machine and have been one of the league's best teams through the first two months, and have put themselves into a position where even if they regress in the second half they have a built-in cushion to soften the blow.

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And even the Red Wings are starting to look like a potential playoff team after a big offseason. Add in the usual suspects at the top like Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Pittsburgh, and Carolina, as well as a Florida team that is still trying to find its way, and suddenly you have 10 viable playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. Somebody is going to miss out.

Last year's Eastern Conference playoff race was unique in the sense that there was a pretty definitive gap between the eight playoff teams and the non-playoff teams. The closest non-playoff team finished 16 points out of a playoff spot, while only one other was within even 25 points of a playoff spot. From December on there was virtually no playoff race and the teams at the top had relatively little pressure.

That is not going to be the case this season, and the later into the season it gets, the more difficult it becomes to make up points.

But it's not just the fact there are so many more good teams in the Eastern Conference this season that has to be concerning for the Rangers.

It's that they still have some very concerning flaws of their own.

For starters, they do not generate anywhere near enough offense during 5-on-5 play. A lot of the Rangers' offensive success last year was generated by its power play. And while that can still be very impactful, you do not want to have to rely on that to carry all of your offense.

When it came to 5-on-5 goal scoring, the Rangers averaged just 2.35 goals per 60 minutes (via Natural Stat Trick) a year ago, a mark that placed them 21st in the NHL and 14th among the 16 playoff teams (ahead of only Los Angeles and Dallas). For much of the season, they had major depth issues with their bottom-six forwards, and it was not until they added Frank Vatrano, Andrew Copp, and Tyler Motte at the trade deadline that they started to get more dangerous at even strength.

A sometimes overlooked storyline this offseason was that Vatrano, Copp, and Ryan Strome (last year's No. 2 center) all left in free agency, while only Vincent Trocheck was brought in to replace them.

That was a lot of scoring depth going out the door. The Rangers were banking on Trocheck being an upgrade over Strome, and their collection of young forwards (Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Filip Chytil, Vitali Kravtsov) all taking steps forward and playing like the top picks that they were.

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While Trocheck has been fine, he has not scored at the same pace that Strome did, while the young players are not really progressing with their production. If players like Lafreniere and Kakko do not become stars, it will really hold back the Rangers' ability to reach the next level.

Entering play on Friday the Rangers are still only 19th in the league (again via Natural Stat Trick) in terms of 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes. That is not where they want to be.

They do have around $2 million in salary cap space to play with and could use another significant tweak at the deadline like last year.

The other issue for the Rangers is that starting goalie Igor Shesterkin has been human this season, instead of unbeatable. Shesterkin's 2021-22 season was one of the best individual goaltending seasons in recent memory and helped mask an awful lot of Rangers' flaws, both offensively (allowing them to win low-scoring games) and defensively (covering up their shortcomings in their own end). As he went, the Rangers went.

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As good as Shesterkin is, it was always going to be unrealistic to expect him to maintain a .935 save percentage over a full season every year. The Rangers had to be ready for regression there and have enough support to make up for that. It has not really happened.

Shesterkin can be better, and he very well might. But there is no guarantee he is as dominant as he was a year in what was a special year. If he is not, and if the Rangers do not get more even-strength scoring, they could suddenly find themselves in a real—and unexpected—scramble for a playoff spot in a dramatically improved Eastern Conference.