Way-too-Soon 2023 NBA Playoff Bracket Prediction
We're roughly a quarter of the way through the 2022-23 NBA season, which is just enough of a sample size to get an idea of the true contenders and pretenders come spring.
When trying to predict what the Nos. 1 through 8 seeds will ultimately be, we'll be looking at a number of factors. These include current record, current strength of schedule, remaining strength of schedule and how injuries have affected teams to this point and moving forward with some big names set to return.
Will the Golden State Warriors rise back to the top of the West? Can the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers remain in the playoff picture? Do we have any idea what the Brooklyn Nets are yet?
Without making any predictions about the playoffs themselves, these are the teams projected to come out of the play-in tournament (the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds) and who they and others will match up against in the first round of the 2023 postseason.
Note: All strength of schedule and remaining strength of schedule stats are via Basketball-Reference.com. Player stats accurate as of Nov. 29.
East: (4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors
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Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Record/Seed: 14-8, 3rd in East
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in East
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 12th in East
It's been tough to get a read on these Cavs, who followed an eight-game win streak by dropping five in a row. Still, this is a young and talented squad that boasts the NBA's third-highest net rating overall (plus-5.8) and has knocked off the conference-leading Boston Celtics twice already.
Donovan Mitchell is playing the best basketball of his career, while Darius Garland's scoring has actually increased (up to a personal-best 22.9 points) despite now serving as a No. 2 option.
The defense is still elite thanks to Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, and the return of Ricky Rubio as early as sometime in December should make a big difference in the second unit.
These Cavs may not yet be ready to reach the very top of the East just yet, but getting homecourt advantage in the first round is a nice start after failing to reach the postseason altogether last year.
Toronto Raptors
Current Record/Seed: 11-10, 7th in East
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 7th in East
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 10th in East
Few teams have been struck by injury as much as the Raptors, as OG Anunoby and Christian Koloko are the only two players to have suited up in all 20 games thus far. Despite this, Toronto is still currently in the East playoffs and should only rise with the return of Pascal Siakam from an adductor strain.
One of the biggest and longest teams in the NBA, the defense has been playing at an elite level despite missing so many bodies, even if the starting lineup itself carries questions. The typical opening five of Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Siakam has a net rating of minus-7.0 thus far, ranking in just the 20th percentile overall.
Head coach Nick Nurse recently tried using Barnes and Trent off the bench in a win over the Cavs, although this doesn't appear to be a long-term answer.
Expect the Raptors to be battling for home-court advantage in the first round, especially with better health over the final three-quarters of the season.
East: (3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks
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Philadelphia 76ers
Current Record/Seed: 12-10, 5th in East
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 12th in East
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 7th in East
Give credit where credit is due; Doc Rivers has done an excellent job coaching this team despite injuries to key players in the early going.
Having one of the easiest schedules in the conference has helped, but Philly has still missed 26 collective games from James Harden, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
Despite these absences, the Sixers have posted the NBA's third-best defense to this point (108.1 rating) and are getting nice contributions from players like Shake Milton, De'Anthony Melton and Georges Niang.
Once this squad returns to full strength, expect a top-three finish in the East, just below teams like the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks.
Atlanta Hawks
Current Record/Seed: 12-10, 6th in East
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 5th in East
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in East
A 76ers-Hawks opening round would be amazing given the teams' recent playoff history, and it could be entirely possible if Atlanta climbs out of the play-in tournament.
The Hawks have played one of the toughest schedules in the conference thus far while trying to integrate Dejounte Murray, yet they finish with the third-easiest in the East the rest of the way.
That's great news for Murray, Trae Young and the rest of the Hawks who've made a nice jump defensively (26th last season to 12th now) but are still trying to find their way on offense (22nd overall).
A potential John Collins trade could make a big difference in where this team ultimately ends up as well, but the talent is already there to finish as a top-six seed in the East.
East: (2) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (7) Miami Heat
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Milwaukee Bucks
Current Record/Seed: 15-5, 2nd in East
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 14th in East
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 5th in East
Milwaukee will be in the running for the No. 1 seed in the East and the NBA's best record overall, especially given their start without Khris Middleton to this point.
The All-Star forward has begun to practice and could make his return soon to a team that already ranks second in the conference and has posted the top-ranked defense in the league (106.5 rating).
Assuming Joe Ingles can still hit threes and create shots for others when he returns from a torn ACL, this will be a fully-loaded and incredibly deep Bucks team looking for a second title in three seasons.
With Giannis Antetokoumpo looking like an MVP candidate once again and Brook Lopez playing the best basketball of his Bucks career, there's only one team we're projecting to finish higher in the East.
Miami Heat
Current Record/Seed: 10-12, 11th in the East
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 3rd in East
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 10th in East
A sub-.500 start wasn't what most envisioned for the team that finished with the No. 1 seed in the East last season, but injuries and a quiet summer currently have the Heat barely clinging on to a spot in the play-in tournament.
Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have all missed eight games or more, with the latter yet to even make his season debut. Getting guys healthy will ultimately make a big difference in where Miami ends up.
Sending Herro back to the bench would be a smart move as well, as a starting five of Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Butler, Caleb Martin and Bam Adebayo have a net rating of plus-31.5 this season, good for the 98th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass.
Miami may not make it out of the play-in tournament by the end of the regular season, but it will ultimately advance to the East playoffs.
East: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Brooklyn Nets
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Boston Celtics
Current Record/Seed: 18-4, 1st in East
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 9th in East
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th in East
Things couldn't be going much better for these Celtics.
Boston ranks first overall in record, offense and net rating even while missing starting center Robert Williams III while he recovers from knee surgery. Joe Mazzulla looks quite comfortable in his first year as a head coach, while Jayson Tatum is playing like a serious MVP candidate.
Even better, the Celtics have the easiest remaining schedule of any Eastern Conference team and are expected to get Williams, one of the best defensive centers in all of basketball, back by Christmas.
The Milwaukee Bucks will provide enough push for the Celtics to avoid any sort of letdown, and a healthy Philadelphia 76ers team is primed for a leap up the standings as well.
The best team in the East NBA thus far, the return of Williams and a cushy schedule will lead Boston to the No. 1 seed.
Brooklyn Nets
Current Record/Seed: 12-11, 8th in East
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 6th in East
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 6th in East
The Nets had to win their way out of the play-in tournament to reach the playoffs a year ago and will ultimately follow a similar path this season. Meeting the Celtics in the first round is sure to conjure up some bad memories, however.
Following a 2-6 start to the season, Brooklyn has been playing much better basketball as of late. Since Nov. 4, only Boston has more wins than the Nets' nine, with Brooklyn ranking fourth overall in net rating (plus-5.2) over this span.
Ben Simmons is starting to resemble his former All-Star self as well, averaging 14.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.2 blocks over his last six full games. With Joe Harris working his way back to form following ankle surgeries and T.J. Warren expected to make his season debut this week, this Nets team is slowly returning to full strength.
Kyrie Irving's availability is always in question, however, and Brooklyn has the sixth-toughest remaining schedule. Digging out of an early hole won't be easy, eventually leading to the eighth seed in the East.
West: (4) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (5) Denver Nuggets
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New Orleans Pelicans
Current Record/Seed: 13-8, 3rd in West
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 6th in West
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 14th in West
Now a quarter of the way into the season, the Pelicans have a higher-ranked defense (fifth overall) than offense (sixth-best), just like we all predicted.
This is incredibly encouraging, however, as this roster has some of the best scorers the NBA has to offer at their respective positions.
Most of this core (Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Dyson Daniels, Jose Alvarado, etc.) are all years away from hitting their primes, so there's lots of internal growth to be made to keep New Orleans as a homecourt advantage team in the first round of the playoffs.
Predicting the Pelicans to actually finish ahead of teams like the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns may be a bit aggressive, but the second-easiest schedule in the West moving forward gives them a chance.
Denver Nuggets
Current Record/Seed: 14-7, 2nd in West
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th in West
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 3rd in West
The Nuggets may be second in the West right now, but part of this feels like fool's gold.
For starters, Denver has played the conference's easiest schedule thus far, one that now turns into the third-toughest. The Nuggets' net rating of plus-1.7 actually ranks below that of the 10-10 Dallas Mavericks (plus-1.9) as well.
This isn't to say the Nuggets aren't good, but Denver still probably relies on Nikola Jokic a little too much (plus-14.7 net rating with him in the game, minus-17.2 net with Jokic out), with the bench in general needing a little boost.
This is a good, but not truly great, team in the West who will just miss out on homecourt advantage in the first round.
West: (3) Phoenix Suns vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks
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Phoenix Suns
Current Record/Seed: 15-6, 1st in West
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 11th in West
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 9th in West
The Suns get to exorcise their playoff demons from last year with a rematch against the Mavs, hoping to erase the memories of one of the biggest Game 7 meltdowns of all time.
Despite questions about Deandre Ayton's happiness, Jae Crowder's looming trade and Chris Paul's potential decline, the Suns have still looked like a championship-caliber team thus far.
Only the Boston Celtics have a better net rating than Phoenix, who've managed to keep on winning despite missing Paul (heel) and Cam Johnson (knee) for half the season or more.
Ayton has looked more engaged as of late (19.7 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, 67.6 percent shooting over his past six games) while Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges have excelled while playing major minutes.
The Suns will once again finish near the top of the West.
Dallas Mavericks
Current Record/Seed: 10-10, 11th in West
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 1st in West
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th in West
Dallas is at .500 and out of the play-in picture, a mark that doesn't seem possible given Luka Doncic's incredible season and the amount of talent around him.
Betting on Dallas to eventually make it to the No. 6 seed is a vote of confidence in Doncic's ability to carry an offense and for head coach Jason Kidd to eventually find the best starting lineup to place around him. JaVale McGee and Reggie Bullock have already been benched in favor of Dwight Powell and Tim Hardaway Jr., and it's hard to imagine Christian Wood will re-sign in Dallas next summer if he's not named a starter at some point.
The Mavs actually have the third-highest net rating of any Western Conference, a surprise given the team's ehhh record, and their schedule flips from the hardest to the easiest now moving forward.
All this points to a jump up the standings for Dallas, especially if newly signed Kemba Walker still looks like a rotation-caliber player.
West: (2) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) Los Angeles Clippers
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Golden State Warriors
Current Record/Seed: 11-11, 8th in West
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 10th in West
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 7th in West
The biggest movers on this list, don't be surprised to see Golden State climb out of the play-in tournament all the way up to No. 2 in the West.
The Warriors are 8-4 following a 3-7 start to the year and possess one of the most deadly starting lineups in all of basketball, with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney registering a net rating of plus-28.0 (93rd percentile) together.
Thompson has been much better of late, averaging 24.0 points on 56.0 percent shooting from three over his last five games, proving he can still be a secondary scorer. Stephen Curry is playing at an MVP-level while Andrew Wiggins is having another strong season on both ends.
There's still plenty of room for improvement from players like Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo and the young guys (James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody), providing hope that the bench can eventually turn into a positive.
This is a veteran group that knows how to win and the importance of homecourt advantage in the playoffs. Expect a return to dominance by Golden State.
Los Angeles Clippers
Current Record/Seed: 13-10, 5th in West
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 14th in West
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 5th in West
One of the hardest teams to project seeding for, the Clippers' ultimate standing will depend on the health of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The two have combined to play just 128 possessions together thus far, yet they are beating opponents by a whopping 31.7 points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor (100th percentile).
While scoring has been an issue, this is an elite defensive team (107.6 rating, 2nd overall) even with Leonard playing in just five games thus far.
Assuming Leonard is going to miss more time this season either via injury or load management, the Clippers simply don't project to rise in the standings, especially with the fifth-hardest schedule in the West through the remainder of the year.
With limited draft picks and young talent to trade, Los Angeles must depend on internal improvements and health to succeed. This could be one of the most dangerous seventh seeds in NBA history if both superstars are healthy come April, however.
West: (1) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (8) Portland Trail Blazers
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Memphis Grizzlies
Current Record/Seed: 12-9, 4th in West
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 5th in West
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 10th in East
It's time we give the Grizzlies the respect they deserve.
This isn't just a good, young team. Memphis is already playing like a title contender, has its defensive anchor in Jaren Jackson Jr. back and is led by one of the best players in all of basketball in Ja Morant.
With Morant and Jackson on the floor together this season, the Grizzlies' offense (129.2 rating), defense (95.8 rating) and net (plus-33.3) all rank in the 100th percentile. That's, um, pretty good.
Desmond Bane has become a legitimate second scoring option and one of the NBA's best three-point shooters, and a talented rotation can go 12-deep if necessary.
After finishing second in the conference a season ago, look for Memphis to jump from their current fourth spot to 1st overall by year's end.
Portland Trail Blazers
Current Record/Seed: 11-11, 10th in West
Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 2nd in West
Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in West
Portland is doing remarkably well considering Damian Lillard has played in just 11 games thus far this season and Gary Payton II has yet to make his Blazers' debut following a core muscle injury. The second-toughest schedule of any West team hasn't helped, either.
Ending up in the top six seeds will prove difficult as the season progresses, however, as teams like the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks project to improve.
The growth of rookie Shaedon Sharpe will have a big impact on Portland's final standing, as well as Jerami Grant's ability to maintain his strong play (21.5 points, 48.2 percent from three).
The schedule gets easier moving forward, and Payton should help improve the team's defense once he returns.
This is still a play-in caliber team, however, one that will ultimately win its way into the playoffs, hopefully giving us a tasty Lillard vs. Morant first-round matchup.
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