Early Evaluations of 8 NHL Teams That Made Bold Offseason Moves
The 2022 NHL offseason was a particularly memorable one, with some of the game’s biggest names on the move, a massive game of goaltender musical chairs, and some typically tepid teams stepping up and making bold decisions.
Most of these transactions will have implications for years to come, to say nothing of the remaining seven months of the 2022-23 season. Nonetheless, most teams are approaching the 20-game threshold, which is a decent sample by which to evaluate the effects of these acquisitions. For some teams, the acquired players are contributing exactly as hoped. For others, they may already have severe regrets.
Let’s analyze how major transactions made by eight NHL teams have played out so far.
New Jersey Devils
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The big fish on the market was Johnny Gaudreau. He signed in Columbus. Instead, the Devils made what appeared to be consolation moves.
The one that made the most noise was the signing of Ondřej Palát from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Would he thrive in an elevated role or be exposed without Tampa’s top players hiding him? Unfortunately, the Czech winger suffered a groin injury just six games into the season, though he did score three goals. He underwent surgery and is out long-term.
Less celebrated was the acquisition of John Marino from the Pittsburgh Penguins. However, the early returns indicate that he was one of the best acquisitions any team made. There is not much flash to his game, but Marino is quietly one of the best shutdown defensemen in the NHL. Plays such as this one on Wednesday show as much. He’s a big part of why the Devils have been able to keep the puck out of their goal, and the Penguins’ struggles without him are no coincidence.
Vitek Vanecek was an underwhelming answer to the Devils’ post-Martin Brodeur era of goaltending struggles. Even in his best moments in Washington, Vanecek was merely competent. To his credit, the 26-year-old has done his job. His numbers are more or less NHL average for a goaltender, and the Devils will likely look to add another option at the deadline. But with Mackenzie Blackwood both floundering and hurt, Vanecek has stepped up. The Devils are dominant at five-on-five and all they need is for Vanecek to not mess everything up. He’s lived up to his end of the deal so far.
The Devils are on an incredible 12-game winning streak in part because of these moves. When Palát returns, the offseason decisions made by general manager Tom Fitzgerald could look nothing short of brilliant.
Ottawa Senators
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The Senators, usually quiet, broke that trend and came out swinging in the offseason. Claude Giroux, the second-best free agent available after Johnny Gaudreau, signed a three-year deal to come to Ottawa. General manager Pierre Dorion made a bold move and paid pennies on the dollar for winger Alex DeBrincat from Chicago. They acquired Cam Talbot from Minnesota to man the net, and Tyler Motte was added for depth.
Giroux has done his job effectively. He’s contributed eight goals and 10 assists through 18 games. Full thumbs-up here.
It hasn’t been so great with DeBrincat. He has contributed just five goals and nine assists through 17 games. To be fair, he’s played better recently, but that’s simply not the type of production Ottawa believed it was getting; that’s roughly a 23-goal pace after scoring 41 last season. Of course, DeBrincat is only 24 years old and Ottawa acquired him anticipating that he’ll be a fixture for the long haul. He’s better than what he’s shown and there is a strong likelihood that this works out in the long term. But so far, it hasn’t.
The biggest problem with the early returns for Ottawa’s offseason is what it didn’t do: address the defense.
Sure, Giroux and DeBrincat are massive upgrades to the roster, but defense was always the team’s biggest detriment. Nothing so far has dispelled that notion. The Senators are dead-last in the Atlantic Division. As in, below both the Sabres and Canadiens who have no ambitions this season.
The substance has not matched the offseason theatrics, and Ottawa doesn’t look that much closer to getting out of the pit of despair the team has been in for years now.
Florida Panthers
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No need to set a scene here. The Panthers made the biggest move of an offseason rife with them, acquiring Matthew Tkachuk from the Calgary Flames after he made it clear he would not re-sign to remain in Alberta.
Tkachuk is possibly the most underrated player in the NHL. It’s not that he slips under the radar, but he is a top-three winger in the NHL. Last season he tallied 42 goals and 62 assists for the Flames. The Panthers brought him in with a new eight-year contract worth an average of $9.5 million per season.
He’s been everything Florida could have hoped for. Tkachuk has so far registered eight goals and 17 assists through 17 games, which is good enough for ninth in the NHL by points. Beyond that, he is a major impact every shift with elite forechecking skills and capable puck finesse. He’s arguably the most complete winger in the NHL.
To part with him, Florida had to get rid of franchise player Jonathan Huberdeau as well as shutdown defenseman Mackenzie Weegar. From a public relations standpoint, it was a major risk. Not to mention potentially upsetting locker room dynamics and on-ice chemistry. The Panthers are definitely missing Weegar’s reliability on the back end. But it’s been unequivocally a net-positive so far and will almost certainly continue to be for years.
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Calgary Flames
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Naturally, the Flames are also worth an early evaluation of their offseason. On its face, general manager Brad Treliving did about as well as he could have in tough circumstances. Typically, when a player such as Tkachuk makes it known he doesn’t want to stay, the team is forced to accept an underwhelming return. An All-Star forward in Jonathan Huberdeau, a top-four defenseman in Mackenzie Weegar and a first-round pick in 2025 is an impressive haul.
Nazem Kadri, coming off a dominant season and Stanley Cup in Colorado, was signed to a seven-year deal as a free agent, which is the money that would have gone toward Johnny Gaudreau. The Flames are still worse off, but that’s some tremendous damage control.
The results have been mixed. Weegar has been superb on the defensive front. But after producing a 44-point season in 2021-22, he’s at zero goals and four assists through 17 games. In fairness, Calgary has other defensemen more suited for offensive minutes and he’s not playing on the power play.
Kadri was never going to live up to his 87 points in 71 games last season. So, relative to restrained expectations, he’s more or less playing up to standard. Kadri has eight goals and seven assists and has been a force on the power play, with seven points during the man advantage. The cracks in his game are definitely showing now that he can’t hide behind Nathan McKinnon, but Kadri is still the offensive force Calgary needs after losing Gaudreau.
The one disappointing player is Jonathan Huberdeau. The talented winger finished second in the NHL by points and first in assists last season. The change in scenery has been dreadful through 14 games, as he’s put up just two goals and six assists. Often, a star player’s drought in that kind of sample could be the result of poor puck luck, where a player is generating scoring chances but the puck just can’t find the net.
With Huberdeau, he is simply struggling to create offense. In fact, head coach Darryl Sutter has resorted to demoting him to the third line. He’ll surely perform better than this going forward, but with Huberdeau now 29 years old and in a different hockey environment, it’s fair for Flames fans to worry if this is an early sign that the $84 million contract that will carry through age 37 might have been a costly mistake.
Los Angeles Kings
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The Kings’ offseason activities were limited, but the one move they made was consequential. The Minnesota Wild faced a salary-cap crunch. Winger Kevin Fiala, due for a contract extension, was sacrificed. General manager Rob Blake swooped in and secured him for the economical cost of the 19th overall pick in 2022 and defense prospect Brock Faber.
The Kings were in need of a dynamic, impact winger to supplement a team that had depth but lacked standout talent. Fiala fit the bill. The Swiss 26-year-old was coming off an 85-point season in Minnesota.
Is he leading the way in Los Angeles? Well, sort of. He does lead the team in points, with 18 in 21 games. However, just six of those points have come from goals. What’s more, only eight of those points have come at five-on-five. Once the third-best winger in Minnesota after Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, Fiala now has to be the lead man in Los Angeles.
He’s been good, but signed to a $7.875 million cap hit over the summer, he has not quite lived up to that role. The move is far from a bust, and he has more than enough time to make the move worth it.
Detroit Red Wings
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The Red Wings’ offseason didn’t have the “wow” factor of other teams. Rather, their offseason overhaul came in the form of quantity. General manager Steve Yzerman built the framework for a future contender with Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond, among other prospects. His goal over the summer was to give them and Dylan Larkin some help and move the team into a more competitive mode.
The forward additions were Andrew Copp, Dominik Kubalik and David Perron. Olli Maatta and Ben Chiarot were brought in to reinforce the defense. The Blues traded last season’s breakout goaltender, Ville Husso, to Detroit. With the number of additions made, it is kind of a given that not all of them would be home runs. That has proved true.
The positives have been Perron and Kubalik.
Perron is one of the more under appreciated forward over the last decade, and he’s continuing to quietly produce. The 34-year-old, signed to a two-year contract, is third among Red Wings in points, with 15 through 18 games. Kubalik has been even better. The Blackhawks chose to let the 27-year-old become a free agent as part of their scorched earth rebuild. Yzerman got him at a bargain two-year, $5 million contract. Kubalik leads the team in goals, with nine. The duo are doing exactly what Yzerman hoped, which is taking the pressure off Lucas Raymond and rookies such as Jonatan Berggren.
Husso is having another solid year, with a .916 save percentage. He has successfully wrestled the starting job away from Alex Nedeljkovic.
Less successful have been the additions of Copp and Chiarot.
Copp was brilliant for the Rangers during their playoff run last season. He was also a perfect fit in Winnipeg before being traded, with his heavy style of play fitting its tactics and the needs of skilled forwards such as Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. In Detroit, he hasn’t quite fit in yet. The Michigan native has registered just one goal through 18 games and is struggling to drive possession the way he did for both the Jets and Rangers.
Chiarot meanwhile was always a curious addition. For whatever reasons, NHL teams have valued him despite ugly underlying numbers. The Red Wings have been outscored 19 to 14 with Chiarot on the ice, which is well below the production of Maatta and Filip Hronek. The Red Wings signed him to be a defensive linchpin; he’s been anything but.
Nothing the Red Wings did this summer was supposed to put the team over the top. These moves were made to transition the team from a rebuild to a near future in which the youngsters are ready to take the team to the next level. It hasn’t been a home run exactly, but the general impact has been adequate for their purposes.
Columbus Blue Jackets
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The Columbus Blue Jackets had a stunning offseason, unexpectedly landing the top free agent on the market in Johnny Gaudreau.
Gaudreau, who finished second in the NHL by points last season, has always been the best player on his team. The move to Columbus mapped out a different kind of responsibility. In Calgary, he was the best player among a number of good players who collectively made up one of the best teams in the NHL. In Columbus, he has to carry the offense, at least for now while some young players like Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger find their feet.
The superstar is continuing to be exactly that. Gaudreau sits at seven goals and 11 assists through 18 games. Although the assist count is below the pace of last season’s 75-assist season, that is largely because of the diminished talent around him. Columbus doesn’t exactly have a Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm to stick on his line. Meanwhile, his goal scoring hasn’t taken a hit and is actually on pace to beat last season’s 40-goal total.
So their big move is living up to the hype. Less noteworthy was the addition of Erik Gudbranson.
The former third overall pick in 2010 is 6'5" and 222 pounds, which has led to a reputation of imposing physical defensive presence. In reality, he has struggled immensely in that regard. Evolving Hockey’s numbers put him in the 18th percentile among NHL defensemen by defensive impact over the previous three seasons. Last season’s “breakout” campaign in which he tallied 17 points represents the only time in the last 10 seasons in which he broke the 10-point threshold. He is a black hole offensively.
Which is why it was so disconcerting that the Blue Jackets signed the 30-year-old to a four-year, $16 million contract. Yes, they needed a veteran defenseman to shore things up, but he wasn’t the player they should have picked; especially at that cost. The simplest way to explain his struggles is that he has been on the ice for seven goals for and 12 against at five-on-five. That is a 38.4 goals-for percentage, which ranks 108th out of the 120 NHL defenseman who have played at least 250 five-on-five minutes.
And while one could blame that on his playing difficult minutes, other legitimate shutdown defensemen such as Adam Larsson and Jacob Middleton have thrived in similar situations. Some contracts are ugly because the player is overpaid. With Gudbranson, it’s that he’s overpaid and also not a good player.
On the balance, Blue Jackets fans would probably do this offseason over again 100 out of 100 times. The Gudbranson problem is temporary, while Gaudreau will change the franchise and give the team a sense of pride and swagger after years of being the stepping stone for players to eventually force their way to different teams.
Edmonton Oilers
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The Oilers weren’t a perfect team last season. There were obvious issues with forward depth and defensive options. That can be, and was, overcome when the team is stacked with elite and high-end talents. Connor McDavid. Leon Draisaitl. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Tyson Barrie. Certainly, the team’s top players were able to carry the team to a Western Conference Final appearance.
The Achilles' heel for the team was about as bad of a problem as any NHL team had last season. The goaltending tandem of Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen was absolutely atrocious. With even mediocre goaltending, the Oilers could have climbed to the top of the mountain on the way to a sixth Stanley Cup. That the Oilers would attempt to find an upgrade in net was the worst-kept secret in the league.
Their solution was Jack Campbell. The former first-round pick has endured a roller coaster of a career, earning the status of draft bust after eight seasons spent mostly in the minor leagues. A trade to Los Angeles revived his career, and he then won the starters’ job in Toronto, earning an All-Star Game appearance last season. However, the second half of last season went poorly for him. Given his small sample of success in the NHL over just a few seasons in limited roles, his resumé didn’t come with much assurance that he was destined for a rebound.
The Oilers banked on him being their guy anyway. The Oilers gave the 30-year-old a five-year contract worth $30 million, hoping he’d at least stabilize the net while the rest of the team put pucks in the net. Per Evolving Hockey, Campbell has allowed 7.8 goals more than expected given the shot quality he has faced. In more traditional framing, Campbell is posting an .873 save percentage over 10 games.
Meanwhile, 24-year-old rookie Stuart Skinner is excelling with a .930 success rate in nine starts. One has to wonder how much longer this can continue before the Oilers accept the situation and elevate Skinner to the starter's role. If he comes down to earth, then Edmonton are once again in huge trouble.
Campbell is completely overwhelmed in Edmonton’s run-and-gun style. Unless he figures it out in a big way, he’s going to inhibit the team this season, and his contract will make actually fixing their goaltending problem a major headache in the next few seasons.
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