World Series 2022: Astros vs. Phillies Pitching Outlook and Predictions
The Houston Astros find themselves in an ideal situation to clinch the 2022 World Series inside their home ballpark on Saturday night.
Houston pulled off two straight wins against the Philadelphia Phillies, who had not lost inside Citizens Bank Park before the Astros' combined no-hitter in Game 4.
Framber Valdez will shoulder the weight of clinching the World Series for Houston. He is the exact pitcher the Astros want to throw in this situation.
Valdez has been excellent over his three postseason starts, and the Astros would prefer he get the job done before Lance McCullers Jr. takes the hill in Game 7.
Philadelphia is not out of the series yet, and it can be in a spot to punch back if Zack Wheeler rediscovers the form from his first few postseason starts.
The Phillies would have a slight pitching edge in Game 7 if Ranger Suárez opposes McCullers because of how Game 3 played out in Philadelphia.
The National League champion needs to get to that point first, and it will take an all-hands-on-deck pitching approach to keep the World Series alive for an extra day.
Houston Astros
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Houston's pitching outlook is simple for Game 6.
The Astros hope Framber Valdez delivers another quality start and then hands the ball over to a few dominant arms to close out the World Series.
That is how Houston won Game 2 on home soil. Valdez struck out nine batters and allowed one run in 6.2 innings. Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly finished off the victory. Pressly gave up an unearned run in the ninth inning after an error allowed Brandon Marsh to reach.
Dusty Baker can utilize any combination of Montero, Pressly, Bryan Abreu and Héctor Neris to follow up Valdez in Game 6.
Montero may be seen as the weakest arm in the bullpen quartet because he conceded a run in Game 5 that forced Pressly to come on for a five-out save.
Luis García, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown are also available if Valdez leaves in the fifth or the game goes into extra innings.
Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier are the two available pitchers who should be kept out of Game 6 in case the Phillies win on Saturday night.
McCullers would be the Game 7 starter based on the Astros' rotation order, but there has to be a temptation there to start Javier because of his six no-hit innings in Game 4.
Javier would be on three days rest, but he could be used for two or three innings before García, McCullers or Urquidy take over as a long reliever in one potential scenario.
Houston's hope is that the decision to start McCullers or Javier on short rest does not come to fruition and Valdez closes out Philadelphia in Game 6.
Philadelphia Phillies
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Philadelphia's pitching outlook for Game 6 is straightforward on paper.
The Phillies gave Zack Wheeler some extra rest after his Game 2 start to be able to match Valdez's output for five or six innings.
Wheeler struggled for the first time this postseason in Game 2, and the Phillies allowed him to rest more so that his velocity and effectiveness are there for Game 6.
The Phillies would love to have Wheeler get into the sixth inning and then use their high-leverage relievers for the rest of the contest.
But the pitching strategy will be thrown off if Wheeler is unable to match the high standard he set in the first three postseason series.
The Phillies have Ranger Suárez waiting in reserve for Game 7, but one has to wonder if he will be used in relief in the Phillies are in a bind. He could be used for one inning and still be fresh for a Game 7 start.
Philadelphia could also use Suárez for multiple innings in Game 6, if the situation called for it, and throw Aaron Nola on short rest in Game 7 with Noah Syndergaard potentially available in relief.
Rob Thomson has to put together the best pitching approach just to get to Game 7, and that may require using Suarez to bridge the gap between Wheeler and Jose Alvarado, Serantony Domínguez, or calling on the left-handed starter in the late innings when all the high-leverage bullpen arms have been used.
Prediction
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Houston holds the advantage on the mound based on the Game 2 production from Framber Valdez and Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler could return to his dominant form and turn Game 6 into a low-scoring affair, but even if that happens, the Astros could have the edge.
The Phillies are 1-for-19 with runners in scoring position since Game 1 ended. Most of their runs since the opener have come through home runs.
Houston drove in two runs with a runner in scoring position in Game 5 on Jeremy Peña's first-inning RBI single and Yordan Alvarez's RBI groundout in the eighth.
The Astros have been better in situational hitting spots since Game 1, and that could play in their advantage if Game 6 is decided by one or two runs.
Philadelphia could always come alive with its bats in an elimination scenario, but that seems like a difficult task right now given its recent numbers at the plate and Valdez's overall success on the mound this postseason.
Prediction: Houston wins World Series in Game 6
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