Predicting the NBA's Worst Three-Point Shooting Teams This Season
Shooting has been basketball's most important skill for about as long as the game has existed. With each passing season in the NBA, that statement just gets easier to defend.
With the three-point-attempt rate (the percentage of total shots that come from beyond the arc) continuing to hover around 40 percent (compared to 22.2 percent in 2009-10 and 16.7 percent in 1999-00), teams that can't take and make a lot of deep jumpers start every game in a self-imposed hole.
If everything else in a given contest is close to equal, the team that wins the three-point battle typically gets the W. And that isn't always dependent entirely on three-point percentage. Volume matters too.
As a guide for today's predictions, a tried-and-true formula concocted by former Bleacher Report writer Adam Fromal and now available in the "adjusted shooting" tables on Basketball Reference will be consulted. For today's application, we'll call it "points over average from three."
If you take a team's points per shot on three-point attempts and subtract the league-average points per three-pointer during the relevant time period, and then multiply by the number of team attempts, you get a good feel for the squad's long-range prowess that accounts for both efficiency and volume.
The squads below figure to be on the wrong end of that equation more often than not.
Indiana Pacers
1 of 5
Points Over Average from Three: -7.1
The Indiana Pacers are closer to 20th than 30th in the category above, but that's with one of the best high-volume three-point shooters of all time on the roster.
It feels like a foregone conclusion they'll trade Buddy Hield, a prospect that both sides are reportedly open to, per The Athletic's Shams Charania, Sam Amick, Jovan Buha.
With Indiana seemingly angling for good lottery odds and a chance to add Victor Wembanyama to a young core that includes Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin, every day that Hield is on the team could frustrate that goal.
Once Hield is gone (or shut down), the Pacers will be almost entirely devoid of high-end three-point shooters beyond Haliburton and Mathurin. And they'll likely start to slide down this leaderboard.
Chicago Bulls
2 of 5
Points Over Average from Three: +6.1
The Chicago Bulls are above-average in this department, but that has at least a little to do with the team in last place dragging the average down so far (more on that squad later).
Unsustainably hot starts from Goran Dragić (56.3 percent from three), Zach LaVine (57.9) and Ayo Dosunmu (45.0) are contributing too.
Once they cool off, Nikola Vučević's downturn as a jump shooter (31.1 percent from deep since the start of 2021-22) and DeMar DeRozan's affinity for the mid-range (he averages just 1.5 three-point attempts per game for his career) will pull the Bulls down.
Of course, that could be offset to a degree by the return of Lonzo Ball from knee surgery, but the date on that is still up in the air.
Oklahoma City Thunder
3 of 5
Points Over Average from Three: -28.4
At minus-279.3, the Oklahoma City Thunder were dead last in this stat last season. And though Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gotten off to a hot start from deep in 2022-23, there simply isn't enough shooting throughout the rest of the roster to avoid another bottom-five finish.
Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey are second and fourth on the team, respectively, in three-point attempts per game. Their combined career three-point percentage is 31.4 (the league average is 35.6).
Others who figure to get up a lot of attempts without an average percentage include Aleksej Pokusevski (28.6 percent for his career), Kenrich Williams (34.5) and Darius Bazley (30.6).
Of course, the misses all of the above put up in 2022-23 will increase OKC's chances of landing Wembanyama. So this is another team with which poor shooting isn't an issue yet.
Orlando Magic
4 of 5
Points Over Average from Three: -26.9
Paolo Banchero has already shown enough to be confident in him being a bona fide No. 1 scorer and point forward, but his three-point percentage could take some time to improve.
As a freshman at Duke, Banchero shot 33.8 percent from the shorter college three-point line. His rookie mark in the NBA being lower than that (32.0) shouldn't be surprising.
A below-average track record from deep for Jalen Suggs should overwhelm his hot start too (or at least pull his percentage down a bit from 44.4).
And once Markelle Fultz makes his return from a fractured toe, Orlando will have another subpar long-range shooter to work into the rotation.
There's some upside from the outside with Franz Wagner and Cole Anthony, but it's probably not enough to offset all of the above, especially if Orlando moves Terrence Ross to a contender in a rebuild-friendly trade.
Los Angeles Lakers
5 of 5
Points Over Average from Three: -59.3
Remember that league-worst mark from OKC in 2021-22? The Los Angeles Lakers are on pace to blow past that.
Now, L.A. almost certainly won't shoot this poorly all season. It seems impossible to be at 23.7 percent for much longer.
But even if the Lakers trade Russell Westbrook and their oft-discussed 2027 and 2029 picks for some competent shooters, they won't have enough firepower to escape the hole they've already dug.
Lonnie Walker IV, Patrick Beverley and Austin Reaves were all below-average from deep last season. Kendrick Nunn, of course, missed all of 2022-23 with a knee injury. And Anthony Davis is arguably the worst jump shooter in the NBA.
That puts way too much pressure on LeBron James (below average for his career) to carry the load from three. He's typically at his best when he has the option to spray out to reliable catch-and-shoot threats, and L.A. just doesn't have those.
And then there's Westbrook, one of the worst outside shooters of all time. Among the 55 players with at least as many career three-point attempts, Westbrook's 30.4 three-point percentage ranks last. And that doesn't quite tell the whole story.
This season, he's made just 12.5 percent of his triples. In the five years prior to 2022-23, his mark was 29.3.
If he stays on the team, it's hard to imagine suddenly cutting off the attempts, and the Lakers will be all but guaranteed a spot in this bottom five.
Statistics via Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
