Why Mets Shouldn't Overspend for Jacob deGrom amid Latest MLB Free Agency Rumors

The New York Mets won 101 games this season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2016. However, a 2-1 series loss to the San Diego Padres has shifted New York's focus to the offseason.

Free agency figures to be a major focus for the Mets and franchise owner Steve Cohen, and the organization has a huge decision to make regarding star pitcher Jacob deGrom.

The two-time Cy Young-winner has a $30.5 million player option for the 2023 season and has stated previously that he intends to opt out. Following Sunday's loss, deGrom said that he's unsure what the future holds.

"I'm not going to discuss any of that," deGrom said, per Pat Ragazzo of FanNation. "I have no clue."

The Mets should have a clue. DeGrom is one of the biggest names headed to the free-agent market and can likely earn a substantial raise by opting out and signing a new deal. New York is reportedly willing to offer that next contract, but only if it makes sense financially.

"Word out of Mets camp is that club owner Steve Cohen and his baseball people will indeed try to re-sign deGrom but aim to do it within reason," Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote.

This is the right approach for New York and a stance to which Cohen needs to stick. While deGrom is a star and one of the game's best pitchers when healthy, overpaying to keep him doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

And deGrom is expected to command a lot of money on the open market. Heyman polled three unnamed agents on deGrom's expected value. The low end of estimates was three years and $125 million. That's $41.6 million per year for a 34-year-old who has struggled to stay healthy in recent years.

Over the past three seasons, deGrom has made only 38 starts. As Heyman pointed out, deGrom pitched just 4.3 percent of the innings in 2022. Yet demand for deGrom will be high because of what he can do when at 100 percent.

Heyman reported last month that the Texas Rangers are expected to pursue deGrom if he opts out as expected. The New York Yankees may also throw cash deGrom's way if they're unable to retain star slugger Aaron Judge.

"The Yankees figure to make Judge their No. 1 priority, but if they lose the slugger, anything can happen at that point, including the idea of pairing deGrom with Gerrit Cole atop the rotation," Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote.

The reality is that deGrom's price point could quickly soar past $42 million per season, and that's money Cohen would be wise to spend elsewhere—perhaps using it to lure Judge away from the cross-town Yankees.

"Judge would absolutely fit perfectly for what the Mets need," ESPN's Buster Olney said on Get Up. "Owner Steve Cohen knows that his team needs a big injection of power, and there's no bigger injection of power in baseball these days than Aaron Judge."

And even if the Mets don't chase a big name like Judge, they have plenty of other free-agent deals to address. Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz and Taijuan Walker are just a few of the impending free agents or opt-outs who should take precedence over an aging and injury-prone pitcher.

Cohen has not been shy about spending to build a contender, but he needs to be smart about how he spends this offseason. Paying to keep an everyday contributor like Nimmo or a 28-year-old closer like Díaz should be more important than paying deGrom's market value.

Now, if deGrom is willing to return on a slight pay bump, say $33 million per year, and the Mets can pay that and keep players like Nimmo and Díaz, then great. However, that feels extremely unlikely given the presumed market for the four-time All-Star.

Mets fans should expect New York to be active in free agency and to keep many of their impending free agents. They should also expect to see deGrom playing elsewhere in 2023. If the price to keep him doesn't make sense, letting him sign with the Yankees, the Rangers or elsewhere does.