Yankees Live to Fight Another Day vs. Guardians—But Do They Have Enough in the Tank?

In Game 4 of the American League Division Series, Gerrit Cole dominated, Harrison Bader went deep and the New York Yankees held on to defeat the Cleveland Guardians.

So, more or less the same story as the Yankees' 4-1 victory in Game 1, only this time the score was 4-2 and the win served to tie the series and save their season.

Another strong start from their $324 million ace was merely the first thing that the AL East champions badly needed after back-to-back crushing defeats in Games 2 and 3 put their season on the brink. Cole delivered, becoming only the 11th Yankees hurler to toss at least seven innings with two or fewer runs allowed in a playoff elimination game.

The Yankees otherwise needed a big hit, the likes of which was precisely what Bader delivered with a two-run home run in the second inning.

What the Yankees really needed, though, was for their bullpen to not blow it again a day after Clarke Schmidt—who, as Luis Severino and many others observed, is not Clay Holmes—couldn't hold a two-run lead in the bottom of the ninth in Game 3.

Yet against seemingly all odds, there was little to no fuss as the Yankees got their wish on this front as well. Holmes was able to pitch around a one-out walk in the eighth and Wandy Peralta needed just seven pitches to retire the side in order in the ninth.

But even if it was no easy task what the Yankees accomplished on Sunday in Cleveland, punching their ticket to the American League Championship Series in Game 5 on Monday will be the truly hard part.

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Gerrit Cole Isn't Walking Through That Door Again

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Even if they missed their chance to secure their own ride to the ALCS in front of a friendly crowd at Progressive Field on Sunday, the Guardians have at least one reason to feel optimistic about bouncing back at Yankee Stadium on Monday.

It breaks down like this:

• Gerrit Cole in the ALDS: 13.1 IP, 3 ER
• All Other Yankees Pitchers in the ALDS: 23.1 IP, 10 ER

That's a difference between a 2.03 ERA and a 3.86 ERA. The latter isn't terrible if you're the Yankees, but if you're the Guardians it makes the grade as "preferable."

After throwing 110 pitches on Sunday, Cole is the one guy who absolutely, positively will not be making an appearance for the Yankees on Monday. Though fellow All-Star Nestor Cortes will be available in relief on two days' rest, it'll be Jameson Taillon making the start for the first time in his career.

In context of the solid 3.91 ERA he put up in the regular season, this isn't a worst-case scenario. But with a 4.78 ERA in the first inning during the regular season and a literally infinite ERA for the ALDS, Taillon as the Yankees' Game 5 starter brings to mind former manager Joe Girardi's favorite phrase, "It's not what you want."

One thing that's for sure is that the sooner Yankees manager Aaron Boone has to go to his bullpen in Game 5, the more complicated his job will become.

Holmes, Peralta and Jonathan Loáisiga are basically the only three relievers Boone can rely on right now, and at least one of them comes with strings attached. That's Holmes, who hasn't pitched on back-to-back days since Sep. 13-14.

It was already out there that the All-Star sinkerballer dealt with a shoulder strain in late September, yet the plot thickened Sunday night:

For their part, the Guardians will be going with right-hander Aaron Civale as their starter for Game 5. He only had a 4.92 ERA for the season, but he finished strong with a 3.27 ERA over four starts in September/October after returning from a forearm injury.

Per comments that he made on Friday, 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber is willing to pitch in Game 5. As all three last pitched in Game 2, the Guardians will also have a very well-rested bullpen trio in Emmanuel Clase, Trevor Stephan and James Karinchak.

Together, all the three have done this postseason is pitch to a 0.00 ERA with 14 strikeouts and just one hit allowed over 10.2 innings.

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Whither the Yankees' Big Bats?

AP Photo/David Dermer

"Thank goodness for Harrison Bader" is a thought that nary a Yankees fan was having between Aug. 2 and Sep. 19, and understandably so given that he wasn't playing at all while the guy the team traded for him was mowing down hitters for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cut to now, and Bader has looked like the next coming of Joe DiMaggio in giving the Yankees an unexpected offensive lifeline with three home runs and four runs batted in for the series.

But as much as the Yankees would surely take more of the same from Bader, there must be a sense in their clubhouse that he can't do it all.

The Yankees frankly need more from their big boppers, specifically the ones named Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres. Together, they're just 6-for-44 in the series.

It's only fair to note that Judge hasn't been as invisible in the last two games as he was in the first two. Going 0-for-8 with seven strikeouts is no way to go through life. Going 2-for-8 with a home run and only two strikeouts? Much better.

All the same, this is the guy who hit an American League-record 62 home runs during the regular season.

Kudos to the Guardians for pitching him well, yet that doesn't make it any easier to shake the notion that Judge is still mired in the season-ending slump that turned his pursuit of Roger Maris from a sure thing to an at-the-buzzer affair. In total, Judge is just 12-for-57 with three homers over his last 18 games.

That the Yankees have outscored the Guardians 15-13 does ease some of the concern about the state of the latter's offense, but only so much. If Torres, Stanton and especially Judge remain relatively silent in Game 5, the Yankees may need a miracle to pull off a win.

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Prediction and What's Next in the AL Playoffs

Game 5 feels like one that the Yankees will win if they can strike early and often, whereas the Guardians stand a better chance of winning a closer contest by virtue of the Clase-Stephan-Karinchak trio. Neither outcome seems to us to be especially more likely than the other.

So, it's go-out-on-a-limb time. We'll take the Yankees by way of an early barrage that just barely holds up in a 6-5 final.

Either way, first pitch from Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:07 p.m. ET and will be televised by TBS. The winner of Game 5 will advance to the American League Championship Series, where the Houston Astros already await after sweeping the Seattle Mariners.

Game 1 will be on Wednesday in Houston.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.