Ranking the Starting Rotation of Every 2022 MLB Playoff Team
Offense may be what puts fans in the stands, but good pitching still wins championships, and a deep starting rotation can carry a team to the World Series under the bright lights of October.
No playoff team ranked lower than 18th in the majors in starting pitching ERA this year, and each of the top five teams in that category punched their ticket to the postseason.
Ahead, we've taken a closer look at the projected four-man rotation of each of the 12 playoff teams and ranked them based on top-tier talent, depth and recent performance.
Let the debate begin.
12. Philadelphia Phillies
1 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
RHP Zack Wheeler (26 GS, 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 163 K, 153.0 IP)
RHP Aaron Nola (32 GS, 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 235 K, 205.0 IP)
LHP Ranger Suárez (29 GS, 3.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 129 K, 155.1 IP)
LHP Bailey Falter (16 GS, 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 74 K, 84.0 IP)
Zack Wheeler is just three starts removed from a month-long stint on the injured list with forearm tendinitis, but he allowed only nine hits and one earned run in 15 innings over those three outings, so there's no reason to believe he'll be anything less than an ace in October.
The question here is at the back of the rotation.
Ranger Suárez and Bailey Falter are likely to get the nod over struggling veterans Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard. Both young lefties threw fairly well down the stretch, but inexperience and a lack of swing-and-miss stuff could be an issue for them on the big stage.
11. St. Louis Cardinals
2 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
LHP José Quintana (32 GS, 2.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 137 K, 165.2 IP)
RHP Miles Mikolas (32 GS, 3.29 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 153 K, 202.1 IP)
LHP Jordan Montgomery (32 GS, 3.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 158 K, 178.1 IP)
RHP Jack Flaherty (8 GS, 4.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 33 K, 36.0 IP)
Veteran Adam Wainwright pitched to a 7.22 ERA over his final six starts while dealing with a dead arm, and he's likely pitched his way out of the postseason rotation as a result, at least for the wild-card round as he looks to regain his form.
Deadline pickups José Quintana and Jordan Montgomery brought some much-needed stability to the rotation, while a healthy Jack Flaherty could be the biggest October X-factor on the St. Louis roster.
All of that said, without a bona fide top-of-the-rotation starter anchoring the staff, it's tough to rank them any higher.
10. Toronto Blue Jays
3 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
RHP Alek Manoah (31 GS, 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 180 K, 196.2 IP)
RHP Kevin Gausman (31 GS, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 205 K, 174.2 IP)
RHP Ross Stripling (24 GS, 3.01 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 111 K, 134.1 IP)
RHP José Berríos (32 GS, 5.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 149 K, 172.0 IP)
The one-two punch of Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman is among the best in baseball, and swingman Ross Stripling has been invaluable stepping into a starting role after opening the year in the bullpen.
That puts this Blue Jays team in great position to advance beyond the wild-card round on the strength of its co-aces, but the questions arise at the back of the rotation.
It's been a tough season for José Berríos, but he's still the team's best option to handle the No. 4 spot ahead of Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White. Based on this year's results, he's the worst starter in any team's projected rotation, and that drags down Toronto's ranking a bit.
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9. Tampa Bay Rays
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Projected Postseason Rotation
LHP Shane McClanahan (28 GS, 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 194 K, 166.1 IP)
RHP Tyler Glasnow (2 GS, 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 10 K, 6.2 IP)
RHP Drew Rasmussen (28 GS, 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 125 K, 146.0 IP)
RHP Corey Kluber (31 GS, 4.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 139 K, 164.0 IP)
It's tough to slot the Rays in these rankings because they use their starting rotation differently than most other teams, especially in October. Tampa Bay starters pitched an MLB-low 753 innings on the year but finished third in the majors with a 3.45 ERA in the process.
Shane McClanahan will be used as a traditional starter atop the staff, but expect them to mix and match the rest of the way, perhaps piggybacking multiple starters or pitching a bulk guy behind an opener.
Left-hander Jeffrey Springs (33 G, 25 GS, 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 144 K, 135.1 IP) is not part of the projected rotation, but he can make just as big of an impact as anyone listed above. He's a prime candidate to follow Tyler Glasnow in his start, as the hard-throwing right-hander is still building his arm back up after spending the majority of the year on the injured list and did not pitch beyond the fourth inning in either of his regular-season starts.
8. Cleveland Guardians
5 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
RHP Shane Bieber (31 GS, 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 198 K, 200.0 IP)
RHP Triston McKenzie (30 GS, 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 190 K, 191.1 IP)
RHP Cal Quantrill (32 GS, 3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 128 K, 186.1 IP)
RHP Aaron Civale (20 GS, 4.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 98 K, 97.0 IP)
The Guardians enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in baseball, and that includes their starting rotation anchored by Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, who both ranked among the top 25 qualified starters in opponents' batting average.
The concern here is experience, as the four starters listed above have pitched a combined 6.2 innings in the playoffs. Only Bieber has made a postseason start, pitching Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series in 2020 when he allowed nine hits and seven earned runs in 4.2 innings.
Momentum is on their side, but they will need to answer the inexperience question before they can climb any higher in these rankings.
7. San Diego Padres
6 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
RHP Yu Darvish (30 GS, 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 197 K, 194.2 IP)
RHP Joe Musgrove (30 GS, 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 184 K, 181.0 IP)
LHP Blake Snell (24 GS, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 128.0 IP)
RHP Mike Clevinger (22 GS, 4.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 91 K, 114.1 IP)
Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the second half, logging a 2.71 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 97 strikeouts in 86.1 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .199 average.
Blake Snell is also peaking at the right time with a 1.76 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 41 innings over his last seven starts, and he'll be the key to the rotation's success with the potential to be as good as any Game 3 starter.
Left-hander Sean Manaea will also be an option to fill the No. 4-starter role if Mike Clevinger is unable to go after finishing the regular season on the injured list. While Manaea's 4.96 ERA in 158 innings on the year doesn't look great, he finished strong with six scoreless innings of one-hit ball against the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday.
6. Atlanta Braves
7 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
LHP Max Fried (30 GS, 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 170 K, 185.1 IP)
RHP Kyle Wright (30 GS, 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 174 K, 180.1 IP)
RHP Charlie Morton (31 GS, 4.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 205 K, 172.0 IP)
RHP Spencer Strider (31/20 G/GS, 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 202 K, 131.2 IP)
The Braves have a rotation capable of stacking up against any in this year's playoff field, but their success will be contingent on which version of Charlie Morton shows up and whether rookie standout Spencer Strider is fully healthy.
Morton had a 5.65 ERA in his final seven starts, but the Braves did go 5-2 in those games, and the 38-year-old has a wealth of postseason experience with a 3.35 ERA in 78 career playoff innings.
Meanwhile, Strider has been sidelined since Sept. 18 with a left oblique strain, but he felt good after a recent throwing session, and since the Braves won the NL East and avoided the wild-card round, he'll get a few extra days to prepare. If he can't go, Bryce Elder or Kyle Muller will be options for the No. 4-starter role.
5. New York Yankees
8 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
RHP Gerrit Cole (33 GS, 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 257 K, 200.2 IP)
LHP Nestor Cortes (28 GS, 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 163 K, 158.1 IP)
RHP Luis Severino (19 GS, 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 112 K, 102.0 IP)
RHP Jameson Taillon (32 GS, 3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 151 K, 177.1 IP)
Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes have been one of the best one-two punches in baseball this season, but it's the recent performance of the other two guys in the Yankees' playoff rotation that has helped them climb the list.
Luis Severino twirled seven no-hit innings Monday in his third start back after more than two months on the injured list with a lat strain, ramping up to 94 pitches in the process and cementing his spot as the No. 3 starter.
Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon posted a 3.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with six quality starts over 10 outings prior to a shaky final tune-up Tuesday. That has erased the question of who will round out the postseason staff and gives the Yankees a legitimate weapon in the No. 4-starter spot.
4. Seattle Mariners
9 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
RHP Luis Castillo (25 GS, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 167 K, 150.1 IP)
LHP Robbie Ray (32 GS, 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 212 K, 189.0 IP)
RHP Logan Gilbert (32 GS, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 174 K, 185.2 IP)
RHP George Kirby (25 GS, 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 133 K, 130.0 IP)
The Seattle Mariners have made improving the starting rotation a focal point in the past calendar year, signing Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract in free agency before swinging a blockbuster deal to acquire Luis Castillo at the trade deadline.
Those additions, coupled with breakout seasons from young right-handers Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, have given the M's one of the deepest starting rotations in baseball. Beyond those four starters, they also have Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen as viable back-of-the-rotation options who will likely be slotted in long relief in October.
Kirby has failed to pitch beyond the fourth inning in three of his last six starts, so expect the rookie to be on a short leash. Luckily, the Mariners have a good enough bullpen that they can afford a short start or two.
3. New York Mets
10 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
RHP Max Scherzer (23 GS, 2.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 173 K, 145.1 IP)
RHP Jacob deGrom (11 GS, 3.08 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 102 K, 64.1 IP)
RHP Chris Bassitt (30 GS, 3.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 167 K, 181.2 IP)
RHP Taijuan Walker (29 GS, 3.49 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 132 K, 157.1 IP)
The Mets have two of the greatest pitchers of this generation anchoring their postseason rotation, and that's enough to vault them to No. 3 on this list, even with the uncertainty at the back of the staff.
Chris Bassitt seems like a lock to be the No. 3 starter, and while he has had a few ugly starts, he's been largely excellent since the All-Star break with a 2.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 79.2 innings.
That leaves Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker for the No. 4-starter spot, and Walker would seem to have the upper hand considering Carrasco has not pitched beyond the fourth inning in five of his last seven starts. There are teams with a better No. 3/4 combination, but it's hard to argue with Scherzer and deGrom leading the way.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
11 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
LHP Julio Urías (31 GS, 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 166 K, 175.0 IP)
LHP Clayton Kershaw (22 GS, 2.28 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 137 K, 126.1 IP)
LHP Tyler Anderson (28 GS, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 138 K, 178.2 IP)
RHP Tony Gonsolin (24 GS, 2.14 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 119 K, 130.1 IP)
The Dodgers led the majors with a 2.75 ERA from the starting rotation, but there are enough question marks at the back end of the postseason rotation to keep them out of the No. 1 spot in these rankings.
The lefty trio of Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson is locked into the first three starting spots, but Tony Gonsolin's role is unclear after he was sidelined from Aug. 23 until an abbreviated return Monday when he worked two innings and threw 40 pitches.
Dustin May is also questionable for the postseason roster after ending the regular season on the injured list, which could mean a fourth left-hander in Andrew Heaney fills out the starting staff.
The St. Louis Cardinals (.808 OPS, first in MLB) and Atlanta Braves (.782 OPS, third in MLB) both crushed left-handed pitching during the season. Just something to tuck away for later.
1. Houston Astros
12 of 12
Projected Postseason Rotation
RHP Justin Verlander (28 GS, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 185 K, 175.0 IP)
LHP Framber Valdez (31 GS, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 194 K, 201.1 IP)
RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (8 GS, 2.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 50 K, 47.2 IP)
RHP Cristian Javier (25 GS, 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 194 K, 148.2 IP)
The Houston Astros have six pitchers who would be guaranteed to make every other team's postseason rotation.
José Urquidy (28 GS, 3.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 164.1 IP) and Luis Garcia (28 GS, 3.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 157.1 IP) are both projected for spots in the bullpen in favor of Cristian Javier. The 25-year-old has rattled off 23 scoreless innings while allowing just six hits over his last four starts.
And while he may not have the same name value as some of the other top-tier starters, Framber Valdez has been as impactful as any pitcher in baseball this season, leading the majors with 26 quality starts.
The Astros have depth, they have top-of-the-rotation talent, and a stacked starting rotation could be their ticket to a World Series title.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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