Chelsea FC: Taking Stock After the Loss to Aston Villa

One fired manager. One misfiring $80-million striker. Eleven points behind in the Premiership. Zero trophies.

It's been a forgettable year for Chelsea fans. And to rub salt in the wounds, the team gave a toothless performance in an appalling 3-1 home loss to Aston Villa.

What a cap to 2011, huh?

In the spirit of New Year's, when people the world over take stock of their lives, let's assess Chelsea's fortunes and try to answer the question: "What's going on?"

Difficulty Breaking Down Defenses

When teams from the bottom half of the table play Chelsea, they opt for defensive tactics predicated on getting men behind the ball.

There are three ways to break down such defenses: using the full width of the field, pressing the opposition when they have possession and moving the ball around quickly. Chelsea is deficient in each.

First, the Blues lack wide players.

The outsides of their attacking trident—Juan Mata and Daniel Sturridge—are nominal wingers who tend to drift inside as the game goes on. Consequently, opposing defenses are rarely forced to defend the full width of the pitch; they simply sit in the middle knowing Chelsea can’t hurt them on the wings.

Pressing the opposition in their half is another mechanism to break down a stubborn defense. When dispossessed of the ball, a defense lacks the time needed to get back into position, resulting in momentary chaos.

But Chelsea never seems to press the opposition. I can’t understand this. Why not harry the other team, get the ball back, and strike during the ensuing melee?

Finally, moving the ball around quickly, to feet, is a fantastic solution to a stonewalling defense. It’s the approach Guus Hiddink used to turn around Chelsea’s season in 2009. But Chelsea is labored in possession. Their attacks build slowly and often culminate in hopeful shots attempted from 30 yards.

What happened to the buccaneering team that rampaged forward with power and pace? Like Hiddink, it’s gone AWOL, and as such, Chelsea looks like a shadow of their former selves.

Predictability

Chelsea is an easy to team to prepare for. They play the same 4-3-3 formation every game. And with few exceptions, Andre Villas-Boas uses an identical line-up, regardless of the opponent.

On New Year’s Eve, Villa boss Alex McLeish anticipated the Chelsea set-up and personnel perfectly. His counter-attacking tactics consequently worked as designed.

Sticking with the tried and trusted makes sense when things are going well. But things aren’t. This team is lackluster, tired and uninspired.

Why not use a different formation to shake things up and breathe some life into haggard legs? And why not make use of Romelu Lukaku, Ryan Bertrand, Josh McEachran and even Salomon Kalou? These talented players languish on the bench as the rest of the team languishes on the field.

I’m no fan of change for change’s sake. But when results are poor and performances abject, alterations and adjustments are necessary. Villas-Boas should react accordingly.

Vanishing Leads

A mark of a great team is the ability to hold on to leads. Disturbingly, Chelsea has lost this quality.

In matches against Wigan, Fulham and now Aston Villa, 1-0 leads morphed into disappointing draws and a loss. We saw this pattern earlier in the season too: Chelsea twice blew the lead against Arsenal and twice more in the Champions League against Genk and Bayer Leverkusen.

What’s going on here?

I’m not entirely sure, but it appears to be some unholy brew of defensive ineptitude, indiscipline and loss of confidence. The swagger, belief and concentration that defined the team under Jose Mourinho seems to have vanished, as Chelsea are now prone to sloppy errors that result in relinquished leads.

I want to see Chelsea lock down leads moving forward, especially against teams from the bottom half of the Premiership. The game Monday against Wolves provides an opportunity.

The Curse of December

For some reason, Chelsea’s performances in December leave much to be desired. Consider the club’s December league form in each of the last three seasons:

• 2009: nine points earned out of a possible 18

• 2010: five points earned out of a possible 12

• 2011: nine points earned out a possible 18

I can’t put my finger on the causes for the mid-season malaise. Is it tiredness due to the congested holiday schedule? Do the defensive, counter-attacking tactics other teams use against Chelsea work better mid-season? Or do Chelsea’s players simply dislike playing in the cold?

Whatever the reasons, this disturbing trend must be corrected come next season. Given the Premiership’s overall ferocity of competition, Chelsea can’t afford further mid-season meltdowns.

New Wine in Old Wineskins

A Bible parable talks of new wine in old wineskins. So it is with Chelsea.

While Andre Villas-Boas tries to imprint a new identity onto the club, he must do so with the remnants of the team from Jose Mourinho’s time at the club. That era is long gone, but the same players remain key cogs: Cech, Terry, Cole, Mikel, Lampard, Drogba and Kalou.

It was never going to be easy for Villas-Boas to get the best out of an aging group of players while trying to change direction and instill a new style of play. As such, it’s unsurprising that the team has struggled this season.

Although I'm disappointed and disturbed that Villas-Boas has been outcoached by Arsene Wenger, Kenny Dalglish (twice), Martin Jol and even Alex McLeish, it's only until Villas-Boas assembles a squad of hand-picked players will we definitively know how effective a manager he is.

Some of them are already in place—Mata, Sturridge, Romeu, Meireles—and more will arrive during 2012. Consequently, it may be a while before we see Chelsea hit full stride.