MLB's Biggest Failed Comebacks of the 2022 Season
Any given Major League Baseball season is never going to be short on players who make you go, "Geez, what happened to that guy?"
The 2022 season has been no different, and we're specifically interested in discussing the specific section of "that guys" who have let us down in their comeback attempts.
These are players who experienced some kind of downturn either throughout or parts of the 2021 season, but who nonetheless came into 2022 with some promise of turning things around. But for various reasons, it just hasn't happened.
There are 10 players we want to talk about, split evenly between five pitchers and five hitters. Let's take it away.
LHP Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
1 of 10
Age, Season: 34, 13th
2021 Stats: 61 G, 46 GF, 56.1 IP, 36 H (9 HR), 97 K, 38 BB, 3.36 ERA
2022 Stats: 39 G, 18 GF, 33.0 IP, 22 H (4 HR), 38 K, 25 BB, 4.36 ERA
Though Aroldis Chapman was named an All-Star for the seventh time last season, his early dominance began to rapidly unravel right around when MLB cracked down on sticky stuff. He posted a 5.40 ERA over his final 38 appearances.
Even if we grant that this was a coincidence, it's now clear that there's a whole other problem afflicting the New York Yankees' veteran closer in 2022: age.
It's been a rough year for his body, specifically with regard to an Achilles injury that put him on the injured list for about six weeks. His trademark fastball, meanwhile, is down from a peak average of 100.4 mph to 97.9 mph.
Though that's obviously a good fastball, the 3.8 mph difference between Chapman's heater and that of the average relief pitcher is the lowest it's ever been:
Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson thus hit the nail on the head when he said this about Chapman in May: “Nowadays everybody’s throwing 99 mph, so it’s kinda regular."
RHP Craig Kimbrel, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 10
Age, Season: 34, 13th
2021 Stats: 63 G, 43 GF, 59.2 IP, 31 H (6 HR), 100 K, 23 BB, 2.26 ERA
2022 Stats: 58 G, 46 GF, 55.1 IP, 50 H (4 HR), 65 K, 23 BB, 4.07 ERA
Like Chapman, Craig Kimbrel is another name-brand closer who was named an All-Star in 2021. It was his eighth selection, and certainly well deserved in context of the 0.49 ERA that he took with him when the Chicago Cubs traded him to the Chicago White Sox.
By the end of the season, though, Kimbrel's ERA had grown to 2.26. He just never got it together on the South Side, pitching to a 5.09 ERA with five home runs allowed in 23 innings.
The Los Angeles Dodgers had the right idea to buy low on Kimbrel in a bad-contract swap, but he's been something of a sore spot in a bullpen that otherwise leads the majors in fWAR. It's especially shocking that, at 26.9 percent, his strikeout rate is the lowerst it's ever been.
Or, that would be shocking if the ongoing decline in his fastball velocity wasn't so obvious:
As his fastball has likewise been rendered "kinda regular," this might as well be graphical confirmation that age has come for Kimbrel just as it's come for Chapman.
RHP Dylan Bundy, Minnesota Twins
3 of 10
Age, Season: 29, 8th
2021 Stats: 23 G, 19 GS, 90.2 IP, 89 H (20 HR), 84 K, 34 BB, 6.06 ERA
2022 Stats: 27 G, 27 GS, 131.2 IP, 139 H (22 HR), 89 K, 26 BB, 4.78 ERA
It took longer than expected, but the 2020 season saw Dylan Bundy finally make good on the hype that accompanied him during his prospect days. His 3.29 ERA for the Los Angeles Angels earned him Cy Young Award votes.
Disaster promptly followed in 2021, as Bundy pitched to a 6.06 ERA and also hit other bottoms by way of a demotion to the bullpen and a shoulder injury.
All the same, signing Bundy to a one-year, $5 million contract was a shrewd upside play by the Minnesota Twins. If he could stay healthy and get his slider working again, they stood to gain a top-of-the-rotation starter.
This obviously hasn't happened, and it's precisely because the latter "if" hasn't panned out. Though Bundy's slider is still his main secondary offering, its swing-and-miss rate hasn't recovered from last year's drop:
Without his slider working, Bundy simply doesn't have a reliable out pitch. His results over the last two years make it clear how big of a problem this is.
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RHP Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
4 of 10
Age, Season: 32, 9th
2021 Stats: 32 G, 32 GS, 181.0 IP, 200 H (31 HR), 131 K, 44 BB, 4.77 ERA
2022 Stats: 16 G, 16 GS, 84.1 IP, 85 H (14 HR), 66 K, 24 BB, 4.80 ERA
Kyle Hendricks also got Cy Young Award votes in 2020, though not for the first time like Bundy. He had previously made a run the National League award in 2016 when he finished with a league-best 2.13 ERA.
As Hendricks had pitched to a 3.00 ERA between then and 2020, nobody could have expected his ERA to shoot up to 4.77 in 2021, much less with 200 hits and 31 home runs allowed.
This happened even though Hendricks maintained the velocity spike that he enjoyed in 2020. Not that he really needed it, of course, as his average fastball had eclipsed 90 mph exactly zero times before. So...maybe 2021 was a blip?
Not so much, as it turns out. Performance-wise, Hendricks' two key pitches have simply become defective. His sinker doesn't rack up ground balls anymore, while his changeup is more of a hard contact magnet:
So when Hendricks was diagnosed with a capsule tear in his shoulder in August, it was injury to insult.
LHP Dallas Keuchel, White Sox/Diamondbacks/Rangers
5 of 10
Age, Season: 34, 11th
2021 Stats: 32 G, 30 GS, 162.0 IP, 189 H (25 HR), 95 K, 59 BB, 5.28 ERA
2022 Stats: 14 G, 14 GS, 60.2 IP, 94 H (11 HR), 45 K, 31 BB, 9.20 ERA
Dallas Keuchel's American League Cy Young Award-winning season in 2015 was an outlier right up until 2020. He pitched to a sparkling 1.99 ERA for the White Sox in the shortened season.
That was never sustainable, yet it was still unexpected when Keuchel got knocked around to the tune of a 5.28 ERA last year. Because he at least increased his ground-ball rate in the process, the veteran sinker-baller nonetheless came into 2022 with rebound potential.
Not for long, though, as his career-worst 10-run bomb on April 20 spelled out his doom. And from looking at how badly he's been hurt in the strike zone, it makes sense that he's been so averse to going in there at all:
The White Sox had seen enough by the end of May, when they designated Keuchel for assignment. The Arizona Diamondbacks picked him up only to do the same thing in July, and ditto for the Texas Rangers this month.
Given Keuchel's age, the writing is on the wall that his career is over.
OF Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants
6 of 10
Age, Season: 32, 4th
2021 Stats: 139 G, 532 PA, 25 HR, 4 SB, .224 AVG, .311 OBP, .457 SLG
2022 Stats: 138 G, 516 PA, 15 HR, 5 SB, .213 AVG, .305 OBP, .387 SLG
It wasn't long ago that Mike Yastrzemski was looking like the ultimate late bloomer.
After floundering for years in the Baltimore Orioles system, the grandson of the great Carl Yastrzemski emerged as a full-on star once he joined the San Francisco Giants. He hit at .281/.358/.535 with 31 home runs across 2019 and 2020, even earning MVP votes in the latter season.
Then things took a turn in 2021. Though the younger Yaz hit 25 home runs, he also experienced a 200-point dropoff in his OPS. More specifically, the tremendous success that the left-handed swinger enjoyed against same-side pitching abated.
That's still happening in 2022, though Yastrzemski has also seen his production against right-handers take a dive. Unlike in his first three seasons, he just hasn't been able to hit their fastballs:
As this is coinciding with right-handers aiming ever higher in the zone with their fastballs against Yastrzemski, it seems they've found a hole in his swing.
OF Joey Gallo, New York Yankees/Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 10
Age, Season: 28, 8th
2021 Stats: 153 G, 616 PA, 38 HR, 6 SB, .199 AVG, .351 OBP, .458 SLG
2022 Stats: 117 G, 385 PA, 18 HR, 3 SB, .164 AVG, .286 OBP, .365 SLG
Similar to Kimbrel, Joey Gallo was having a fine year in 2021 up until he got traded.
After the Rangers dealt him to the Yankees, basically everything became a struggle for him as he hit just .160/.303/.404 down the stretch. So it went at the outset of this season, as he was hitting just .159/.282/.339 when the Yankees gave up and dealt him to the Dodgers.
To be fair, Gallo has been better in posting a .722 OPS and hitting six home runs in 35 games with the Boys in Blue. But he still hardly resembles the hitter who was a 40-homer slugger and a relatively high OBP guy in the best of times.
His nemesis? High fastballs. Pitchers who face Gallo have been moving consistently higher with their heaters since 2017. His results, specifically against heaters more than 2.5 feet off the ground, have generally been diminishing and have now altogether cratered in 2022:
Whereas Gallo was once set to cash in, at this rate he'll be a mere buy-low candidate on the upcoming free-agent market.
2B Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
8 of 10
Age, Season: 29, 7th
2021 Stats: 142 G, 595 PA, 24 HR, 20 SB, .251 AVG, .329 OBP, .471 SLG
2022 Stats: 94 G, 396 PA, 16 HR, 13 SB, .238 AVG, .303 OBP, .434 SLG
Trevor Story was one of baseball's best shortstops between 2016 and 2020, a span in which he averaged an .878 OPS, 36 home runs and 22 stolen bases on a 162-game basis for the Colorado Rockies.
Yet with free agency looming, he turned toward mediocrity in 2021. His .801 OPS translated to a modest 102 OPS+, and issues with his throwing elbow tanked his defensive value.
To his credit, Story has reinvented himself as an excellent second baseman since signing a six-year, $140 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. Yet even despite a torrid stretch for a few weeks in May, his bat has been slower to recover.
Story has at least done well at Fenway Park, which isn't surprising given that his pull power remains in good shape. Yet his power to the opposite field has dried up, and he likewise has the same slugging issues as Gallo against high fastballs:
LF/DH Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta
9 of 10
Age, Season: 31, 10th
2021 Stats: 48 G, 208 PA, 7 HR, 0 SB, .213 AVG, .288 OBP, .356 SLG
2022 Stats: 119 G, 488 PA, 21 HR, 2 SB, .221 AVG, .270 OBP, .396 SLG
Even before we get into on-field matters, there's no ignoring the off-field headlines that Marcell Ozuna has generated since re-signing with Atlanta on a four-year, $64 million deal in Feb. 2021.
His '21 season ended after 48 games following his arrest in conjunction with a domestic disturbance, for which he was eventually retroactively suspended by Major League Baseball. He was arrested again in August of this year, this time on DUI charges.
Such things would cast a cloud over Ozuna even if his actual play was up to the standards of his 2020 season, for which he got MVP votes on the strength of a 1.067 OPS and 18 home runs. It obviously hasn't been.
As to why it stands out that he hasn't sustained the habit of crushing fastballs that he had in his best years:
For anyone looking for a more specific explanation, high fastballs are as valid a scapegoat for Ozuna as they are for Yastrzemski, Gallo and Story. Ozuna handled them fine in 2020, but less so in 2021 and 2022.
CF Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
10 of 10
Age, Season: 27, 6th
2021 Stats: 95 G, 350 PA, 10 HR, 3 SB, .165 AVG, .240 OBP, .302 SLG
2022 Stats: 134 G, 515 PA, 17 HR, 14 SB, .204 AVG, .264 OBP, .380 SLG
The biggest moment of Cody Bellinger's 2020 season was both his redemption and his doom. His late home run in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series put the Dodgers in the World Series, but also resulted in a dislocated shoulder.
From the sound of things, Bellinger never fully recovered from the subsequent surgery in 2021. It was a good excuse for his awful performance, and thus a reason for hope going forward. With good health, perhaps he'd recapture his NL MVP-winning form of 2019 in 2022.
But while Bellinger is indeed having a better time this year than he did in 2021, those are far from MVP-caliber numbers on his line. By far the biggest difference between '19 and now concerns four-seam fastballs, against which he's fallen from elite to below average.
His specific bugaboo? You guessed it. It's high four-seamers:
The bright side on Bellinger is that he's still so young that he may yet be fixed. But the Dodgers will almost certainly non-tender him first, as the returns he's put up in 2022 simply haven't justified his $17 million salary.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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