The Keys to a Potential Avalanche Stanley Cup Repeat

Adam HermanSep 8, 2022

Repeating as the Stanley Cup champion is exceptionally difficult. After a summer of euphoria, starting from scratch and overcoming the grind of another regular season can take its toll. Plus, it requires yet again beating out a playoff field of other highly competitive teams. There is a reason the 2020 and 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning are the only teams of the Salary Cap era to pull it off.

The Colorado Avalanche, winners of the 2022 Stanley Cup, are also victims of their own success. Winning requires having a lot of good players, and good players who thrive under the spotlight of a long playoff run expect to be compensated appropriately. Forwards Nazem Kadri, André Burakovsky and Nico Sturm, plus starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper, signed elsewhere as unrestricted free agents. Those are heavy casualties.

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It's unlikely the Avalanche will be the same caliber team as they were in 2021-22. But the Avs don't need to match last season in order to make another run. Even a moderate drop-off from a 119-point regular season would still leave them as one of the best teams in the NHL.

Still, in order to run through the gauntlet yet again, Colorado will need to make gains elsewhere and while having some other players step up in place of the lost. Here are three critical areas that could make or break a repeat performance during the 2022-23 season.

Second-Line Center

Colorado's biggest loss of the offseason was center Nazem Kadri to Calgary—likely their biggest obstacle through the Western Conference. Kadri is coming off a career year in which he registered 87 points in 71 games, plus 15 points in 16 playoff games.

Short of finding a way to move money around and re-sign him, the Avs were never going to find an equal replacement. In fact, with such a tight cap situation, they didn't make any additions at all. At least to start the season, Kadri's successor on the second line will have to come internally. Two options stick out.

One is J.T. Compher. The 27-year-old produced a career-high 18 goals and 33 points in 70 games last season. Compher has spent his six NHL seasons mostly in a depth role, alternating between center and the wing.

At his age, what you see is what you get.

It's possible Compher could improve his output in an elevated role in which he'd get more minutes and play with superior players. More likely, he would face a tough time no longer playing easy minutes in the shadow of Nathan MacKinnon and Kadri.

Compher is a strong defensive forward but struggles to create offense for his team. As a second-line center, he would not attempt to replace Kadri offensively but instead completely change the line's initiative. Alongside Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen, the second line would perhaps match up against the opposition's top players and attempt to drive possession.

The more desirable outcome would be Alex Newhook seizing the role.

The young center spent some time in the AHL last season and only played in 12 of Colorado's 20 playoff games. But his 33 points in 71 games is fair production for a 20-year-old who averaged just 13:34 of ice time per game. Now 21 and having caught his bearing with a season under his belt, he should be able to build on that with a superior performance in 2022-23.

Drafted 16th overall by the Avalanche in 2019, Newhook is an immensely talented center. He is agile and proficient with the puck, capable of feeding linemates through layers of traffic. And while he won't be a top goalscorer, he has a precise shot, and his ability to exploit space will earn him his share of tallies.

Newhook dominated the college circuit with 42 points in 34 games as a freshman at Boston College, and he hardly missed a beat in his brief AHL stints, collecting 20 points in 18 games.

It's only a matter of time before Newhook is a top-six forward in Colorado. The big question for now is how soon he can get there. Head coach Jared Bednar may start the season with Compher on the second line for the sake of stability, but the Avalanche's best hope at sufficiently furnishing the second line is with Newhook working his way there during the winter months.

Otherwise, president of hockey operations Joe Sakic will be under immense pressure to fill the gap with a trade-deadline addition.

Goaltending

Starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper took advantage of both a good season and a weak offseason goaltending market to collect a big payday; the 32-year-old signed a five-year, $26.3 million deal with the Washington Capitals. It's undoubtedly a big loss.

Per Evolving-Hockey, Kuemper saved roughly 16 goals more than expected in 57 regular-season games, which put him fifth among all goaltenders.

There are reasons for Avalanche fans to not necessarily mourn the loss too much. As a top defensive team, the Avs make life very easy for their netminders. The easy workload puts a goaltender in a position to thrive. Just ask Philipp Grubauer, who went from a Vezina Trophy finalist in Colorado in 2021 to one of the worst performing goaltenders last season with Seattle.

What the Avalanche lose with Kuemper's departure, more than anything, is the stability of a veteran, proven goaltender.

To replace him, Sakic took a massive gamble and traded draft picks to the New York Rangers in return for Alexandar Georgiev. The Bulgarian goaltender played second fiddle to Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin the previous two seasons—although, who wouldn't—and he did not perform particularly well. He gave up 8.4 goals more than expected in 52 games over that span.

Yet Sakic is apparently putting his trust in the 26-year-old. There are good reasons to believe Georgiev may be up for the task. Goaltenders often peak at a later age than skaters; Kuemper, who didn't nail down a starting job in the NHL until he was 28, is a convenient example. He'll have a chip on his shoulder, and while the starting job appears to be his to lose, he'll be forced to justify his claim to the net throughout the season.

With a chance to do so on a top team, the situation could play into his mental strengths.

What's more, there is precedent for him proving up to the task.

Georgiev was called up to the Rangers in February 2018 in the aftermath of the Rangers' infamous fire sale. With nothing to play for, the Rangers gave him a run of starts, and he excelled, posting a .918 save percentage behind a barebones team. Splitting starts with Henrik Lundqvist to start the 2019-20 season, Georgiev again performed well behind a rebuilding team that conceded a number of scoring chances. In fact, upon Shesterkin's call-up to the NHL that season, the Rangers considered Georgiev's performances so impressive that they somewhat shockingly demoted Lundqvist to the third string.

Georgiev has shown he can be a starting NHL goaltender, and a good one, when he's given an opportunity to play frequently and fight for his job. The move is a risky one, but their new goaltender comes with a lot of upside. Should he fail, the team will be forced to resort to the competent but uninspiring Pavel Francouz, who did win all six of his playoff starts last season.

Improvements on Defense

Perhaps the most persuasive reason the Avalanche were so dominant last season was their robust defensive group. Not only did it feature high-end talent, but also depth. Not only were the Avalanche one of the best shot-suppressing teams in the league, but they also got significant offensive contributions from the blue line.

Cale Makar's 28 goals and 86 points of course steal the show, but it's not just him. Devon Toews collected 57 points in 66 games. Sam Girard was producing well above a 30-point pace prior to his being shelved with a sternum injury. Even Erik Johnson, in a diminished role, scored eight goals.

Is it possible they could be even better next season?

Aside from linchpins Makar and Toews, the Avalanche are set to get full seasons from a number of highly capable defensemen. Josh Manson, acquired from Anaheim at the trade deadline, re-signed in Colorado and should be a key defensive presence to complement the group's offensive excellence. Girard had a subpar season but is incredibly talented and ranked 29th among all defensemen in points over the last two seasons. Now 24, he is a likely candidate to return to his prior form as a top-four defenseman and offensive force.

The biggest "addition" is Bowen Byram. Byram has dealt with serious concussion issues and played in 30 regular-season games last season and only 19 the season before. When he is healthy, he has the ability to be one of the best defensemen in the league. The 2019 fourth overall pick tallied five goals and 17 points in 30 games last season and was one of Colorado's top players in the playoffs.

On most other teams, he would be a strong candidate to play top-pairing minutes even at age 21. It shouldn't be long before he himself enters the realm of All-Star nominations. More than anyone else, a healthy Byram has the ability to make Colorado's defense improve from elite to beyond dominant.

Still the Favorites

No doubt, there are some new questions the Avs will have to answer this upcoming season. Goaltender is a big question mark, and even in the best-case scenario, the loss of Nazem Kadri will hurt. Nonetheless, they are returning most of their key players, and getting full seasons from Bowen Byram, Sam Girard and Artturi Lehkonen will help.

What's more, the Calgary Flames once again pose the only significant threat in the Western Conference. And while last season's all-in approach has put a dent in the team's prospect pool and draft capital, the team still has each of its first-round picks through 2025 (and beyond), plus a handful of intriguing prospects. Reinforcements are certainly possible, if not inevitable, before the trade deadline.

It's going to be a more difficult task this time around, and they'll need a few bets to go in their favor, but the Avalanche absolutely have what it takes to run it back and win another Stanley Cup.