Best Bets for UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz
If you take your combat with swagger, this is a good week to like the UFC.
The mixed martial arts conglomerate will produce a monthly pay-per-view show from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night that's topped by two of the...hmmm, let's say most self-assured fighters on the roster.
Indeed, UFC 279 will feature a welterweight main event matching unbeaten supernova Khamzat Chimaev against ex-title challenger and 15-year octagonal veteran Nate Diaz.
Chimaev has vowed to smash every opponent in his path and has done so successfully since arriving to Fight Island in the pandemic-addled summer of 2020, while Diaz has split two nose-to-nose battles with Conor McGregor in addition to a scrap with fellow bad boy Jorge Masvidal for the persona-driven "BMF" title belt at Madison Square Garden in 2019.
The paid portion of the Saturday night show consists of five fights and will be carried by ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET. The four-bout early prelim show begins at 6 p.m., and four more bouts on the preliminary card are scheduled to commence at 8 p.m.
The B/R combat and betting teams got together to assess the entire 13-bout show, taking a look at the latest odds posted by DraftKings and considering how the fights are likely to end and where some possibilities for wagering profit might be found.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz
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It may last 25 minutes. It could last 25 seconds.
But as long as it lasts, the main event between Chimaev and Diaz should be fun.
Presuming they get through the final weigh-in faceoffs without a full-on rumble, it'll be a compelling spectacle to see the promotion's latest wrecking machine across a mat from a guy who's long been considered one of the toughest men in the sport.
Chimaev is a remarkably prohibitive -1250 proposition (bet $1,250 to win $100) on the moneyline, so even his biggest fans won't be looking there for betting value. And he's also -150 to win by KO, TKO or DQ, so there's little profit potential there either.
Diaz is a welcoming +800 if you're among the few who believe he can actually win the fight, but if Chimaev is your guy, the best opportunity to cash out comes in calling the round in which he may get his business handled.
The lines go from +240 for a KO/TKO/DQ in the first all the way to +1600 for the fifth, so we'd suggest settling somewhere in the middle and rolling the prognostication dice.
The B/R Pick: Chimaev by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+450)
Li Jingliang vs. Tony Ferguson
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There was a time not too, too long ago that Ferguson was a UFC hero.
He'd not lost in six years and seemed hot on the heels of then-lightweight champ and now Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Their fight never came before the Dagestani retired, and Ferguson hasn't been the same since, losing four straight to Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush and Michael Chandler, including two by brutal stoppage and two by shutout decision.
He moves from 155 pounds to 170 to take on Jingliang, who's on the fringes of contention at No. 14 in the weight class and was dusted in a single round by Chimaev in October. But Jingliang has 10 KOs on his resume and stoppages in each of his last four victories since 2018.
The moneyline lean is toward Jingliang to the tune of -305, and, like the main event, it's difficult to imagine a path to victory for a guy who has not won a fight in three-plus years.
The idea that Ferguson could get to the ground and somehow record a ninth submission (against a guy who's tapped out twice in the UFC) isn't preposterous, though, and could be worth the +800 flyer it would take to reel it in. But if you're sticking with chalk for the winner, the best advice is to hope for a prolonged beating that ends just before the buzzer.
The B/R Pick: Jingliang by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1000)
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
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Will the real Kevin Holland please stand up?
The Texas-based "Trailblazer" has been equal parts entertainer and enigma in recent years, winning five times in a busy 2020 before two desultory losses in 2021 and a subsequent move from middleweight to welterweight in 2022 that's yielded a pair of Round 2 finishes.
So entering a main-card scrap with Rodriguez, it's hard to go all-in with Holland even with his -195 moneyline status. His foe, after all, is on a tidy little run of his own in the UFC, winning six of seven bouts in the Octagon since running up a 10-1 slate across multiple promotions.
Holland has a corner on the spectacular when it comes to highlights, while Rodriguez leans more toward the workmanlike. But it might be best in this case to avoid over-analysis and simply look at where the best opportunity for a realistic windfall exists.
Though submissions and KOs entice with higher payouts, it's more likely this one turns into a grinder that goes the entire 15 minutes and winds up with 29-28 cards. Holland is a solid enough +200 in that case, but we'll amp up the accumulation and go with the upset.
The B/R Pick: Rodriguez by Decision (+450)
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Worth a Shot!
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You've made it this far, so you clearly recognize the concept of risk vs. reward.
And while favorites and moneylines are worthwhile options, a lofty prop or parlay is nice too.
This card isn't hurting for options, even outside the top three bouts.
Here are a few we'd suggest you take a look at:
Ion Cutelaba to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+550)
Johnny Walker began building his UFC brand with first-round stoppages in his first three fights, but he's stalled lately with four losses in his last five. Two of those losses have seen him on the wrong end of memorable KOs, and his opponent this time, Cutelaba, has three KO wins in an admittedly uneven UFC career. Inconsistent or not, the idea that he can get another one here, let's say in Round 2, is too tempting to pass up.
Jailton Almeida to Win by Submission in Round 2 (+650)
We'll concede that Almeida almost seems a bit too good to be true at this point. Sixteen wins have yielded 16 finishes, and he's not been beaten since a scorecard loss in Brazil better than four years ago. And history is littered with late-stage substitutes who pulled off upsets. Swedish import Anton Turkalj hasn't lost in eight fights and has seven finishes of his own. But it won't mean anything more than an extra round before "Malhadinho" gets his man.
Moneyline: Danyelle Wolf (+330)
Norma Dumont has won seven of nine pro fights and three of five in the UFC, including a split decision over ex-featherweight title challenger Felicia Spencer. Wolf, meanwhile, has only a Dana White Contender Series win to her MMA name and precisely zero street cred with which to claim an advantage. But she's taller, longer and beat a five-fight veteran in her contract-earning shot, leaning on her boxing pedigree to get it done. Sound the upset alarm.
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