BS Meter for Latest 2022 NBA Trade, Free-Agency Rumors
If there's a point at which the wave of NBA misinformation crests, we might be riding atop it now. As free agency draws closer, deliberate leaks, smoke screens and leverage plays wash over the news cycle. It's a skeptic's paradise where every report can be picked apart for ulterior motives.
The Kyrie Irving mini-saga is a perfect example. Calm returned when he opted in for 2022-23 (OR DID IT?! More on that later...), but prior to that it triggered hand-wringing for multiple franchises and cast the frailty of everything the Brooklyn Nets had built into stark relief.
Irving's one-day dominance of the news won't be the end. It's only the beginning of what'll be at least a week of players and teams posturing in search of narrative control and negotiating leverage.
A key note: We're not challenging the veracity of any reporting. Instead, we're commenting on how realistic or logical the substance of those reports seems from afar. Sometimes, we get the unvarnished truth. Others, not so much.
The Kyrie Irving Drama Is Done
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So much for calm after the storm that engulfed Kyrie Irving and the Brooklyn Nets on Monday.
"I don't know if anything has changed," ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on the Hoop Collective podcast. "The people I talk to in the league are skeptical that Kyrie is going to be all for one and one for all on this."
Irving opted in for 2022-23, securing $36.5 million from the Nets instead of testing a free-agent market that may have only included one team, the Los Angeles Lakers, and one available contract for the taxpayer's mid-level exception of just $6.4 million. Realizing it's not a great idea to set $30 million on fire is about as far from daring to be different as it gets.
The stability Irving's decision brought may not last. He's still on an expiring contract, which will make him a topic of trade discussion through the February deadline—especially if the Nets don't get off to a strong start. And history suggests that regardless of how well Brooklyn performs, the seven-time All-Star can't go more than a few days without saying or doing something to get the news cycle churning.
A report from The Athletic's Shams Charania indicated Irving and the Nets engaged in "good faith" negotiations that were "extensive" and "productive." Maybe that means relationships aren't as strained as they seemed and that Irving's commitment to the team will be firmer than in the past. We shouldn't hold out hope on that front.
Irving circled back to pick up his option and collect $36.5 million, the most money available. But he only did so after pursuing paths out of town and failing to get an acceptable multiyear offer from his own team.
B.S. Meter: Zero. The next controversy-free season Irving and the Nets enjoy will be the first. And it's hard to imagine Irving and the Nets ironing things out after both parties very publicly expressed such low levels of commitment toward each other.
The Knicks Will Land Jalen Brunson
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The New York Knicks shed $19 million by trading Nerlens Noel, Alec Burks and cash to the Pistons on Tuesday, and are now clear to pursue their top target.
Ladies and gentlemen, your future $100 million man: Jalen Brunson!
The Knicks are expected to offer Brunson a four-year, $110 million deal when free agency opens Thursday in an attempt to pry him away from the Dallas Mavericks, according to Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports.
It's not news that the Knicks are targeting Brunson. The CAA and familial connections made that a reasonable suspicion before the cap-clearing efforts removed any doubt about the team's intentions. What's surprising is that New York is on the verge of pulling this off.
Brunson averaged 16.3 points on 58.3 percent true shooting last year for the Dallas Mavericks, parlaying the best small-man post game in the league into a full-time starting role. The unrestricted free agent is heading into his age-26 season with a career-trajectory arrow pointing up, but all Brunson has proved for certain is that he's a capable playmaker and scorer in a supplementary role.
The Knicks seem convinced that's worth nine figures, but their recent contract valuations—Julius Randle, Evan Fournier, Kemba Walker—suggest they're not the authority on market rates.
Dallas can offer Brunson up to $175 million over five years, while the Knicks are limited to four years and $131 million. This isn't a restricted free-agency situation with match rights, so the Mavs aren't in total control. But if it's "widely anticipated" that Brunson is headed to New York, it means Dallas has set an upper limit on what it's wiling to spend.
B.S. Meter: A moderate amount. New York isn't quite in possession of the spending power it needs yet, and Dallas can't replace Brunson using cap space. Signs have been pointing to a very serious Knicks pursuit for a while now. But considering the Mavericks' status as contenders, their inability to backfill Brunson's spot and the extra $44 million they can offer, I'm not ready to proclaim the Knicks winners of the Brunson Sweepstakes just yet.
There Is No Playoff Mandate in Sacramento
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The idea that the Sacramento Kings aren't hellbent on making the playoffs totally checks out...as long as you ignore the team's years-long obsession with ending the league's longest postseason drought, its recent win-now trades and, um, reports to the exact opposite effect from just a few weeks ago.
“There’s no mandate,” GM Monte McNair told reporters, via Jason Anderson of the Sacramento Bee. “We’ve been very clear what our goal is. We want to win. We want to make the playoffs and we want to stay there, but there’s no mandate to do so. My job is to build, as I’ve said, the best team that’s going to take the court this year and for years to come.”
OK, sure. But if that's the party line now, what was behind the trade last season that sent out promising guard Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis?
And what about ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reporting after Mike Brown got the head coaching gig that "Brown comes to the Kings with a clear organizational mandate: End the longest playoff drought in NBA history and return the Kings to the postseason for the first time in 16 years”?
McNair's use of the exact word that appeared in previous reporting, "mandate," could be intentional. Maybe he's refuting the term on purpose. But if there's no explicit mandate to make the playoffs, there's certainly a high level of pressure, plus a general pattern of decision-making that suggests there's at least an implied postseason-or-bust directive.
It's unfortunately very on-brand for the Kings to lack clarity of purpose. To a degree unmatched by any other team over the last two decades, they've flitted from one coach, lead executive and organizational plan to another. Bad trades and draft picks are part of the problem, but the real reason the Kings are coming off their 16th straight trip to the lottery is their lack of patience.
B.S. Meter: Near the max. Two or three years of purposeful rebuilding is usually all it takes to position a franchise for a return to the playoffs, and sometimes the wait isn't even that long. But Sacramento is always trying to turn things around immediately. The Kings can say what they want, but nothing's changed.
Pacers Aren't Shopping Myles Turner
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Nothing lends itself to B.S. Meter analysis like a subject with conflicting reports. Mandate talk got us an entry for the Kings, and now the topic of Myles Turner's availability provides another chance to unpack an executive's surprising comments.
Pacers GM Chad Buchanan continued, via Scott Horner of the Indianapolis Star: "We are listening to other teams that contact us, but we are in no hurry to massively alter this roster. We are trying to do things in order to give us a chance to be better down the road."
So maybe he meant the team wasn't actively shopping Turner at that specific second because, you know, he was on the phone with a radio station. It's not technically a lie if you frame it that way.
Semantics may be the only way to square Buchanan's assertion with reality because it was only a little over a week ago that The Athletic's Shams Charania reported, "The Pacers are seriously discussing trades centered on Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner."
Is there a difference between "seriously discussing" and "actively shopping"?
Turner's availability has been a topic of interest since well before last February's trade deadline. It could easily have been him leaving town instead of Sabonis, and the fact that Indiana hasn't extended Turner yet makes a trade all the more likely. The worst-case scenario of losing him for nothing as an unrestricted free agent in 2023 becomes more probable the longer he remains on the roster without a new deal.
B.S. Meter: A heaping helping. We know Turner has been on the block for a while. Unless and until he gets an extension, that's where he'll stay.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through 2021-22 season. Salary info via Spotrac.
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