NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview

Because of the talent in the West and seeding quirks in the East, the first round of the 2007 NBA playoffs features a number of tantalizing matchups.

 

No matter which way the ball bounces, the real winners are the fans, who will be treated to nothing but exciting basketball for the next few months. (Outside of the Wizards-Cavs series, anyway...)

 

Here's a look at how things should play out as postseason action tips off in the Western Conference.

 

 

 

#1 Dallas vs. #8 Golden State

Of the four teams fighting for the last two playoff spots in the West, Golden State was the one Dallas didn't want to face.

While the Mavericks have some good individual defensive players and play reasonably solid team defense, they aren't going to clamp anybody down. And that's a problem in this series, given the number of matchups Golden State can exploit on offense.

Baron Davis should be able to feast on Jason Terry and Devin Harris. Davis is physical and athletic, and can score both inside and out. He may not be quicker than Terry or Harris—but he is certainly stronger, and will use that strength to tally points and free throw attempts.

Stephen Jackson is also stronger than Harris or Terry, and would dominate them the same way Davis would. Josh Howard or Jerry Stackhouse might be able to neutralize S-Jack...but that would leave Monta Ellis' speed or Jason Richardson's power unaccounted for.

Even worse news for the Mavericks: All of the Warriors' perimeter starters can shoot, and Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus can both torch the nets off the bench.

Though Devean George is strong enough to guard Richardson and Jackson and Greg Buckner is feisty enough to limit Golden State's effectiveness on the perimeter, neither of those two contribute enough on offense for the Mavericks to have them both on the floor at the same time.

Inside, Al Harrington will be able to blow past DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier. A zone would allow Diop and Dampier to stay in the middle and protect against drives, but it would also give Golden State open looks all series long.

The saving grace for Dallas is that the Warriors, for all their scoring prowess, don't play much defense. Terry and Harris can take Davis off the dribble, Stackhouse can post up anybody the Warriors throw at him, and Nowitzki can pick Harrington apart.

Prediction: Golden State has the offense to pull off the upset, but Dallas will play just enough D to ward off the Warriors. Still, expect this to be one of the most entertaining 1-8 matchups in recent memory. Dallas in six.

#2 Phoenix vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers

Last year, a dogfight between these two teams almost resulted in the Lakers scoring a shocking upset.

Don't expect it to be so close this year.

While Kobe Bryant has been phenomenal on offense, the rest of the Lakers simply don't have the athleticism to exploit Phoenix's shoddy defense. Steve Nash isn't a one-on-one stopper, but he can handle Smush Parker. Amare Stoudemire is a just plain poor defender, but not poor enough to get beat by Andrew Bynum.

When Bynum reaches NBA puberty, he could conceivably be a star. For now he's still a toddler riding with training wheels.

Lamar Odom has the athleticism to do damage against Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw, but he's yet to master the triangle offense. Luke Walton's lack of athleticism means he'll only get open looks when the Suns botch their defensive sets. And though Kobe certainly has the potential to go for 50 no matter who's guarding him, Raja Bell will make him work for every point.

Then there's the Suns offense. While Phil Jackson will implore his team to get back on every possession, the Lakers late defensive rotations will be a poor match for Phoenix's ball movement. Kobe is LA's only accomplished defender, but he'll have to work so hard on the offense that it's hard to imagine him mounting much resistance against Phoenix's trademark high screen/rolls.

Unless the Lakers' defense magically stiffens in a hurry, the Suns will be able to call their shots.

Prediction: Kobe's brilliance and Jackson's outstanding coaching will help LA steal a game. Still, the Suns' near-perfect offense will blitz the Lakers into the offseason. Phoenix in five.

#3 San Antonio vs. #6 Denver

As hot as Denver is, don't look for an upset here.

Who do the Nuggets have that can stop Tim Duncan? Marcus Camby is an adequate man defender, but is astronomically better at blocking shots from the weakside than he is at defending one-on-one. Given Denver's dearth of capable perimeter defenders, the Spurs will bombard the lane with dribble penetrations. Where there is dribble penetration, there will be Camby...and that means Duncan will be left open for easy layups and dunks.

Two more problems: Denver's porous zones will yield open threes for Manu Ginobli, Michael Finley, and Brent Barry, and Tony Parker can break down Allen Iverson any time he wants to.

When Denver has the ball, Iverson will undoubtedly abuse whichever defender tries to guard him, but the Spurs play solid help defense, and their rotations will keep AI's teammates from getting open looks.

Carmelo Anthony, on the other hand, has picked up an ignominious reputation for buckling under pressure. As much as he excelled in the NCAA tournament, he's simply disappeared in the NBA postseason. Don't expect him to kick the habit against a tenacious Bruce Bowen.

J.R. Smith can pressure the Spurs' defense if his head is on straight, and Linas Kleiza can knock down open shots. If Carmelo falters, the Nuggets will look to those two to pick up the slack and provide scoring.

Prediction: Carmelo will have another postseason to forget, and Timmy D will take advantage of Camby's zeal to help on penetration. Iverson will go off for a game and will the Nuggets to a victory, but Denver doesn't have the defense to hang with San Antonio. Spurs in five.

#4 Houston vs. #5 Utah

This series may be the most evenly matched in the first round.

After a post-Stockton/Malone Era dip, the Jazz return to the limelight on the heels of an excellent regular season. And even with injuries to superstars Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, the Rockets have been a force all year long.

Utah's Deron Williams is one of the brightest young point guards in the league, a doubly-impressive fact given the pressure put on the point man in Jerry Sloan's offense. Williams is excellent coming off screen/rolls, and the shooting ability of Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur will create problems for Yao and the Rockets on defense.

Another matchup worth watching: Matt Harpring and Shane Battier. Nobody knows it, but Harpring is among the NBA's smartest offensive players. His limited athleticism means he has to move without the ball to get his points. At the same time, Battier is a savvy defensive player in his own right, and won't be likely to surrender many open jumpers. Keep an eye on how this one develops.

Boozer should be able to dominate Yao off the dribble and Juwan Howard in the post, but expect McGrady to ignore the uninspiring offensive games of Andrei Kirilenko and Derek Fisher in helping on rotations and playing for steals.

When the Rockets have the ball, neither Okur nor Boozer will be strong enough to stop Yao in the post. McGrady should also be able to exploit a gimpy Kirilenko for bushels of points.

Look for Houston's role players to make the difference. Rafer Alston's decision-making, shooting, and toughness have improved by leaps and bounds this season. If he, Battier, or Luther Head can step up as a third scorer, the Rockets will be in good shape.

Prediction: Utah will thrive on screen/rolls, but Yao and T-Mac will dominate. The games Houston gets a third scorer will be the games Houston wins. Fortunately for the Rockets, Battier's play in Game Seven will lift them to the next round. Houston in seven.